An updated modeling framework to simulate Los Angeles air quality - Part 1: Model development, evaluation, and source apportionment.

This study describes a modeling framework, model evaluation, and source apportionment to understand the causes of Los Angeles (LA) air pollution. A few major updates are applied to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a high spatial resolution (1 km × 1 km). The updates include dynamic traffic emissions based on real-time, on-road information and recent emission factors and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) schemes to represent volatile chemical products (VCPs). Meteorology is well predicted compared to ground-based observations, and the emission rates from multiple sources (i.e., on-road, volatile chemical products, area, point, biogenic, and sea spray) are quantified. Evaluation of the CMAQ model shows that ozone is well predicted despite inaccuracies in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) predictions. Particle matter (PM) is underpredicted compared to concurrent measurements made with an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) in Pasadena. Inorganic aerosol is well predicted, while SOA is underpredicted. Modeled SOA consists of mostly organic nitrates and products from oxidation of alkane-like intermediate volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and has missing components that behave like less-oxidized oxygenated organic aerosol (LO-OOA). Source apportionment demonstrates that the urban areas of the LA Basin and vicinity are NO x -saturated (VOC-sensitive), with the largest sensitivity of O3 to changes in VOCs in the urban core. Differing oxidative capacities in different regions impact the nonlinear chemistry leading to PM and SOA formation, which is quantified in this study.

Temperature-dependent composition of summertime PM2.5 in observations and model predictions across the Eastern U.S.

Throughout the U.S., summertime fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exhibits a strong temperature (T) dependence. Reducing the PM2.5 enhancement with T could reduce the public health burden of PM2.5 now and in a warmer future. Atmospheric models are a critical tool for probing the processes and components driving observed behaviors. In this work, we describe how observed and modeled aerosol abundance and composition varies with T in the present-day Eastern U.S. with specific attention to the two major PM2.5 components: sulfate (SO4 2-) and organic carbon (OC). Observations in the Eastern U.S. show an average measured summertime PM2.5-T sensitivity of 0.67 µg/m3/K, with CMAQ v5.4 regional model predictions closely matching this value. Observed SO4 2- and OC also increase with T; however, the model has component-specific discrepancies with observations. Specifically, the model underestimates SO4 2- concentrations and their increase with T while overestimating OC concentrations and their increase with T. Here, we explore a series of model interventions aimed at correcting these deviations. We conclude that the PM2.5-T relationship is driven by inorganic and organic systems that are highly coupled, and it is possible to design model interventions to simultaneously address biases in PM2.5 component concentrations as well as their response to T.

Evolution of Reactive Organic Compounds and Their Potential Health Risk in Wildfire Smoke.

Wildfires are an increasing source of emissions into the air, with health effects modulated by the abundance and toxicity of individual species. In this work, we estimate reactive organic compounds (ROC) in western U.S. wildland forest fire smoke using a combination of observations from the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign and predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Standard emission inventory methods capture 40-45% of the estimated ROC mass emitted, with estimates of primary organic aerosol particularly low (5-8×). Downwind, gas-phase species abundances in molar units reflect the production of fragmentation products such as formaldehyde and methanol. Mass-based units emphasize larger compounds, which tend to be unidentified at an individual species level, are less volatile, and are typically not measured in the gas phase. Fire emissions are estimated to total 1250 ± 60 g·C of ROC per kg·C of CO, implying as much carbon is emitted as ROC as is emitted as CO. Particulate ROC has the potential to dominate the cancer and noncancer risk of long-term exposure to inhaled smoke, and better constraining these estimates will require information on the toxicity of particulate ROC from forest fires.

A better representation of VOC chemistry in WRF-Chem and its impact on ozone over Los Angeles.

The declining trend in vehicle emissions has underscored the growing significance of Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) emissions from Volatile Chemical Products (VCP). However, accurately representing VOC chemistry in simplified chemical mechanisms remains challenging due to its chemical complexity including speciation and reactivity. Previous studies have predominantly focused on VOCs from fossil fuel sources, leading to an underrepresentation of VOC chemistry from VCP sources. We developed an integrated chemical mechanism, RACM2B-VCP, that is compatible with WRF-Chem and is aimed to enhance the representation of VOC chemistry, particularly from VCP sources, within the present urban environment. Evaluation against the Air Quality System (AQS) network data demonstrates that our model configured with RACM2B-VCP reproduces both the magnitude and spatial variability of O3 as well as PM2.5 in Los Angeles. Furthermore, evaluation against comprehensive measurements of O3 and PM2.5 precursors from the Reevaluating the Chemistry of Air Pollutants in California (RECAP-CA) airborne campaign and the Southwest Urban NO x and VOC Experiment (SUNVEx) ground site and mobile laboratory campaign, confirm the model's accuracy in representing NOx and many VOCs and highlight remaining biases. Although there exists an underprediction in the total VOC reactivity of observed VOC species, our model with RACM2B-VCP exhibits good agreement for VOC markers emitted from different sectors, including biogenic, fossil fuel, and VCP sources. Through sensitivity analyses, we probe the contributions of VCP and fossil fuel emissions to total VOC reactivity and O3. Our results reveal that 52% of the VOC reactivity and 35% of the local enhancement of MDA8 O3 arise from anthropogenic VOC emissions in Los Angeles. Significantly, over 50% of this anthropogenic fraction of either VOC reactivity or O3 is attributed to VCP emissions. The RACM2B-VCP mechanism created, described, and evaluated in this work is ideally suited for accurately representing ozone for the right reasons in the present urban environment where mobile, biogenic, and VCP VOCs are all important contributors to ozone formation.

Modeling the Oxygen Isotope Anomaly (Δ17O) of Reactive Nitrogen in the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model: Insights into Nitrogen Oxide Chemistry in the Northeastern United States.

Atmospheric nitrate, including nitric acid (HNO3), particulate nitrate (pNO3), and organic nitrate (RONO2), is a key atmosphere component with implications for air quality, nutrient deposition, and climate. However, accurately representing atmospheric nitrate concentrations within atmospheric chemistry models is a persistent challenge. A contributing factor to this challenge is the intricate chemical transformations involving HNO3 formation, which can be difficult for models to replicate. Here, we present a novel model framework that utilizes the oxygen stable isotope anomaly (Δ17O) to quantitatively depict ozone (O3) involvement in precursor nitrogen oxides N O x = N O + N O 2 photochemical cycling and HNO3 formation. This framework has been integrated into the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system to facilitate a comprehensive assessment of NO x oxidation and HNO3 formation. In application across the northeastern US, the model Δ17O compares well with recently conducted diurnal Δ17O(NO2) and spatiotemporal Δ17O(HNO3) observations, with a root mean square error between model and observations of 2.6 ‰ for Δ17O(HNO3). The model indicates the major formation pathways of annual HNO3 production within the northeastern US are NO+OH (46 %), N2O5 hydrolysis (34 %), and organic nitrate hydrolysis (12 %). This model can evaluate NO x chemistry in CMAQ in future air quality and deposition studies involving reactive nitrogen.

Applying a Phase-Separation Parameterization in Modeling Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Acid-Driven Reactive Uptake of Isoprene Epoxydiols under Humid Conditions.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from acid-driven reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) contributes up to 40% of organic aerosol (OA) mass in fine particulate matter. Previous work showed that IEPOX substantially converts particulate inorganic sulfates to surface-active organosulfates (OSs). This decreases aerosol acidity and creates a viscous organic-rich shell that poses as a diffusion barrier, inhibiting additional reactive uptake of IEPOX. To account for this "self-limiting" effect, we developed a phase-separation box model to evaluate parameterizations of IEPOX reactive uptake against time-resolved chamber measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, including 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and methyltetrol sulfates (MTS), at ~ 50% relative humidity. The phase-separation model was most sensitive to the mass accommodation coefficient, IEPOX diffusivity in the organic shell, and ratio of the third-order reaction rate constants forming 2-MT and MTS ( k M T / k M T S ). In particular, k M T / k M T S had to be lower than 0.1 to bring model predictions of 2-MT and MTS in closer agreement with chamber measurements; prior studies reported values larger than 0.71. The model-derived rate constants favor more particulate MTS formation due to 2-MT likely off-gassing at ambient-relevant OA loadings. Incorporating this parametrization into chemical transport models is expected to predict lower IEPOX-SOA mass and volatility due to the predominance of OSs.

Predictions of PFAS regional-scale atmospheric deposition and ambient air exposure.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a large class of human-made compounds that have contaminated the global environment. One environmental entry point for PFAS is via atmospheric emission. Air releases can impact human health through multiple routes, including direct inhalation and contamination of drinking water following air deposition. In this work, we convert the reference dose (RfD) underlying the United States Environmental Protection Agency's GenX drinking water Health Advisory to an inhalation screening level and compare to predicted PFAS and GenX air concentrations from a fluorochemical manufacturing facility in Eastern North Carolina. We find that the area around the facility experiences ~15 days per year of GenX concentrations above the inhalation screening level we derive. We investigate the sensitivity of model predictions to assumptions regarding model spatial resolution, emissions temporal profiles, and knowledge of air emission chemical composition. Decreasing the chemical specificity of PFAS emissions has the largest impact on deposition predictions with domain-wide total deposition varying by as much as 250 % for total PFAS. However, predicted domain-wide mean and median air concentrations varied by <18 % over all scenarios tested for total PFAS. Other model features like emission temporal variability and model spatial resolution had weaker impacts on predicted PFAS deposition.

Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Volatile Chemical Product Emissions: Model Parameters and Contributions to Anthropogenic Aerosol.

Volatile chemical products (VCP) are an increasingly important source of hydrocarbon and oxygenated volatile organic compound (OVOC) emissions to the atmosphere, and these emissions are likely to play an important role as anthropogenic precursors for secondary organic aerosol (SOA). While the SOA from VCP hydrocarbons is often accounted for in models, the formation, evolution, and properties of SOA from VCP OVOCs remain uncertain. We use environmental chamber data and a kinetic model to develop SOA parameters for 10 OVOCs representing glycols, glycol ethers, esters, oxygenated aromatics, and amines. Model simulations suggest that the SOA mass yields for these OVOCs are of the same magnitude as widely studied SOA precursors (e.g., long-chain alkanes, monoterpenes, and single-ring aromatics), and these yields exhibit a linear correlation with the carbon number of the precursor. When combined with emissions inventories for two megacities in the United States (US) and a US-wide inventory, we find that VCP VOCs react with OH to form 0.8-2.5× as much SOA, by mass, as mobile sources. Hydrocarbons (terpenes, branched and cyclic alkanes) and OVOCs (terpenoids, glycols, glycol ethers) make up 60-75 and 25-40% of the SOA arising from VCP use, respectively. This work contributes to the growing body of knowledge focused on studying VCP VOC contributions to urban air pollution.

2002-2017 anthropogenic emissions data for air quality modeling over the United States.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has developed a set of annual North American emissions data for multiple air pollutants across 18 broad source categories for 2002 through 2017. The sixteen new annual emissions inventories were developed using consistent input data and methods across all years. When a consistent method or tool was not available for a source category, emissions were estimated by scaling data from the EPA's 2017 National Emissions Inventory with scaling factors based on activity data and/or emissions control information. The emissions datasets are designed to support regional air quality modeling for a wide variety of human health and ecological applications. The data were developed to support simulations of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality model but can also be used by other regional scale air quality models. The emissions data are one component of EPA's Air Quality Time Series Project which also includes air quality modeling inputs (meteorology, initial conditions, boundary conditions) and outputs (e.g., ozone, PM2.5 and constituent species, wet and dry deposition) for the Conterminous US at a 12 km horizontal grid spacing.

Anthropogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol and Ozone Production from Asphalt-Related Emissions.

Liquid asphalt is a petroleum-derived substance commonly used in construction activities. Recent work has identified lower volatility, reactive organic carbon from asphalt as an overlooked source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursor emissions. Here, we leverage potential emission estimates and usage data to construct a bottom-up inventory of asphalt-related emissions in the United States. In 2018, we estimate that hot-mix, warm-mix, emulsified, cutback, and roofing asphalt generated ~380 Gg (317 Gg - 447 Gg) of organic compound emissions. The impacts of these emissions on anthropogenic SOA and ozone throughout the contiguous United States are estimated using photochemical modeling. In several major cities, asphalt-related emissions can increase modeled summertime SOA, on average, by 0.1 - 0.2 µg m-3 (2-4% of SOA) and may reach up to 0.5 µg m-3 at noontime on select days. The influence of asphalt-related emissions on modeled ozone are generally small (~0.1 ppb). We estimate that asphalt paving-related emissions are half of what they were nearly 50 years ago, largely due to the concerted efforts to reduce emissions from cutback asphalts. If on-road mobile emissions continue their multidecadal decline, contributions of urban SOA from evaporative and non-road mobile sources will continue to grow in relative importance.

Reactive organic carbon air emissions from mobile sources in the United States.

Mobile sources are responsible for a substantial controllable portion of the reactive organic carbon (ROC) emitted to the atmosphere, especially in urban environments of the United States. We update existing methods for calculating mobile source organic particle and vapor emissions in the United States with over a decade of laboratory data that parameterize the volatility and organic aerosol (OA) potential of emissions from on-road vehicles, nonroad engines, aircraft, marine vessels, and locomotives. We find that existing emission factor information from Teflon filters combined with quartz filters collapses into simple relationships and can be used to reconstruct the complete volatility distribution of ROC emissions. This new approach consists of source-specific filter artifact corrections and state-of-the-science speciation including explicit intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), yielding the first bottom-up volatility-resolved inventory of US mobile source emissions. Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model, we estimate mobile sources account for 20 %-25 % of the IVOC concentrations and 4.4 %-21.4 % of ambient OA. The updated emissions and air quality model reduce biases in predicting fine-particle organic carbon in winter, spring, and autumn throughout the United States (4.3 %-11.3 % reduction in normalized bias). We identify key uncertain parameters that align with current state-of-the-art research measurement challenges.

Sensitivity of northeastern US surface ozone predictions to the representation of atmospheric chemistry in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMMv1.0).

Chemical mechanisms describe how emissions of gases and particles evolve in the atmosphere and are used within chemical transport models to evaluate past, current, and future air quality. Thus, a chemical mechanism must provide robust and accurate predictions of air pollutants if it is to be considered for use by regulatory bodies. In this work, we provide an initial evaluation of the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMMv1.0) by assessing CRACMMv1.0 predictions of surface ozone (O3) across the northeastern US during the summer of 2018 within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. CRACMMv1.0 O3 predictions of hourly and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone were lower than those estimated by the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism with aerosol module 6 (RACM2_ae6), which better matched surface network observations in the northeastern US (RACM2_ae6 mean bias of +4.2 ppb for all hours and +4.3 ppb for MDA8; CRACMMv1.0 mean bias of +2.1 ppb for all hours and +2.7 ppb for MDA8). Box model calculations combined with results from CMAQ emission reduction simulations indicated a high sensitivity of O3 to compounds with biogenic sources. In addition, these calculations indicated the differences between CRACMMv1.0 and RACM2_ae6 O3 predictions were largely explained by updates to the inorganic rate constants (reflecting the latest assessment values) and by updates to the representation of monoterpene chemistry. Updates to other reactive organic carbon systems between RACM2_ae6 and CRACMMv1.0 also affected ozone predictions and their sensitivity to emissions. Specifically, CRACMMv1.0 benzene, toluene, and xylene chemistry led to efficient NO x cycling such that CRACMMv1.0 predicted controlling aromatics reduces ozone without rural O3 disbenefits. In contrast, semivolatile and intermediate-volatility alkanes introduced in CRACMMv1.0 acted to suppress O3 formation across the regional background through the sequestration of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) in organic nitrates. Overall, these analyses showed that the CRACMMv1.0 mechanism within the CMAQ model was able to reasonably simulate ozone concentrations in the northeastern US during the summer of 2018 with similar magnitude and diurnal variation as the current operational Carbon Bond (CB6r3_ae7) mechanism and good model performance compared to recent modeling studies in the literature.

Ammonium-adduct chemical ionization to investigate anthropogenic oxygenated gas-phase organic compounds in urban air.

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) and other non-combustion-related sources have become important for urban air quality, and bottom-up calculations report emissions of a variety of functionalized compounds that remain understudied and uncertain in emissions estimates. Using a new instrumental configuration, we present online measurements of oxygenated organic compounds in a U.S. megacity over a 10-day wintertime sampling period, when biogenic sources and photochemistry were less active. Measurements were conducted at a rooftop observatory in upper Manhattan, New York City, USA using a Vocus chemical ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer with ammonium (NH4 +) as the reagent ion operating at 1 Hz. The range of observations spanned volatile, intermediate-volatility, and semi-volatile organic compounds with targeted analyses of ~150 ions whose likely assignments included a range of functionalized compound classes such as glycols, glycol ethers, acetates, acids, alcohols, acrylates, esters, ethanolamines, and ketones that are found in various consumer, commercial, and industrial products. Their concentrations varied as a function of wind direction with enhancements over the highly-populated areas of the Bronx, Manhattan, and parts of New Jersey, and included abundant concentrations of acetates, acrylates, ethylene glycol, and other commonly-used oxygenated compounds. The results provide top-down constraints on wintertime emissions of these oxygenated/functionalized compounds with ratios to common anthropogenic marker compounds, and comparisons of their relative abundances to two regionally-resolved emissions inventories used in urban air quality models.

Human-health impacts of controlling secondary air pollution precursors.

Exposure to ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) air pollution results in premature death. These pollutants are predominantly secondary in nature and can form from nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur oxides (SOX), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Predicted health benefits for emission reduction scenarios often incompletely account for VOCs as precursors as well as the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) component of PM2.5. Here, we show that anthropogenic VOC emission reductions are more than twice as effective as equivalent fractional reductions of SOX or NOX at reducing air pollution-associated cardiorespiratory mortality in the United States. A 25% reduction in anthropogenic VOC emissions from 2016 levels is predicted to avoid 13,000 premature deaths per year, and most (85%) of the VOC-reduction benefits result from reduced SOA with the remainder from ozone. While NOX (-5.7 ± 0.2 % yr-1) and SOX (-12 ± 1 % yr-1) emissions have declined precipitously across the U.S. since 2002, anthropogenic VOC emissions (-1.8 ± 0.3 % yr-1) and concentrations of non-methane organic carbon (-2.4 ± 1.0 % yr-1) have changed less. This work indicates preferentially controlling VOCs could yield significant benefits to human health.

Volatile Chemical Product Enhancements to Criteria Pollutants in the United States.

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are a significant source of reactive organic carbon emissions in the United States with a substantial fraction (>20% by mass) serving as secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. Here, we incorporate a new nationwide VCP inventory into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with VCP-specific updates to better model air quality impacts. Model results indicate that VCPs mostly enhance anthropogenic SOA in densely populated areas with population-weighted annual average SOA increasing 15-30% in Southern California and New York City due to VCP emissions (contribution of 0.2-0.5 µg m-3). Annually, VCP emissions enhance total population-weighted PM2.5 by ∼5% in California, ∼3% in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, and 1-2% in most other states. While the maximum daily 8 h ozone enhancements from VCP emissions are more modest, their influence can cause a several ppb increase on select days in major cities. Printing Inks, Cleaning Products, and Paints and Coatings product use categories contribute ∼75% to the modeled VCP-derived SOA and Cleaning Products, Paints and Coatings, and Personal Care Products contribute ∼81% to the modeled VCP-derived ozone. Overall, VCPs enhance multiple criteria pollutants throughout the United States with the largest impacts in urban cores.

Secondary organic aerosol association with cardiorespiratory disease mortality in the United States.

Fine particle pollution, PM2.5, is associated with increased risk of death from cardiorespiratory diseases. A multidecadal shift in the United States (U.S.) PM2.5 composition towards organic aerosol as well as advances in predictive algorithms for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) allows for novel examinations of the role of PM2.5 components on mortality. Here we show SOA is strongly associated with county-level cardiorespiratory death rates in the U.S. independent of the total PM2.5 mass association with the largest associations located in the southeastern U.S. Compared to PM2.5, county-level variability in SOA across the U.S. is associated with 3.5× greater per capita county-level cardiorespiratory mortality. On a per mass basis, SOA is associated with a 6.5× higher rate of mortality than PM2.5, and biogenic and anthropogenic carbon sources both play a role in the overall SOA association with mortality. Our results suggest reducing the health impacts of PM2.5 requires consideration of SOA.

Contribution of Organic Nitrates to Organic Aerosol over South Korea during KORUS-AQ.

The role of anthropogenic NOx emissions in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production is not fully understood but is important for understanding the contribution of emissions to air quality. Here, we examine the role of organic nitrates (RONO2) in SOA formation over the Korean Peninsula during the Korea-United States Air Quality field study in Spring 2016 as a model for RONO2 aerosol in cities worldwide. We use aircraft-based measurements of the particle phase and total (gas + particle) RONO2 to explore RONO2 phase partitioning. These measurements show that, on average, one-fourth of RONO2 are in the condensed phase, and we estimate that ≈15% of the organic aerosol (OA) mass can be attributed to RONO2. Furthermore, we observe that the fraction of RONO2 in the condensed phase increases with OA concentration, evidencing that equilibrium absorptive partitioning controls the RONO2 phase distribution. Lastly, we model RONO2 chemistry and phase partitioning in the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. We find that known chemistry can account for one-third of the observed RONO2, but there is a large missing source of semivolatile, anthropogenically derived RONO2. We propose that this missing source may result from the oxidation of semi- and intermediate-volatility organic compounds and/or from anthropogenic molecules that undergo autoxidation or multiple generations of OH-initiated oxidation.

Acidity and the multiphase chemistry of atmospheric aqueous particles and clouds.

The acidity of aqueous atmospheric solutions is a key parameter driving both the partitioning of semi-volatile acidic and basic trace gases and their aqueous-phase chemistry. In addition, the acidity of atmospheric aqueous phases, e.g., deliquesced aerosol particles, cloud, and fog droplets, is also dictated by aqueous-phase chemistry. These feedbacks between acidity and chemistry have crucial implications for the tropospheric lifetime of air pollutants, atmospheric composition, deposition to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems, visibility, climate, and human health. Atmospheric research has made substantial progress in understanding feedbacks between acidity and multiphase chemistry during recent decades. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on these feedbacks with a focus on aerosol and cloud systems, which involve both inorganic and organic aqueous-phase chemistry. Here, we describe the impacts of acidity on the phase partitioning of acidic and basic gases and buffering phenomena. Next, we review feedbacks of different acidity regimes on key chemical reaction mechanisms and kinetics, as well as uncertainties and chemical subsystems with incomplete information. Finally, we discuss atmospheric implications and highlight the need for future investigations, particularly with respect to reducing emissions of key acid precursors in a changing world, and the need for advancements in field and laboratory measurements and model tools.

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model versions 5.3 and 5.3.1: system updates and evaluation.

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3 (CMAQ53), released to the public in August 2019 and followed by version 5.3.1 (CMAQ531) in December 2019, contains numerous science updates, enhanced functionality, and improved computation efficiency relative to the previous version of the model, 5.2.1 (CMAQ521). Major science advances in the new model include a new aerosol module (AERO7) with significant updates to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) chemistry, updated chlorine chemistry, updated detailed bromine and iodine chemistry, updated simple halogen chemistry, the addition of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) chemistry in the CB6r3 chemical mechanism, updated M3Dry bidirectional deposition model, and the new Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gaseous Exchange (STAGE) bidirectional deposition model. In addition, support for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's hybrid vertical coordinate (HVC) was added to CMAQ53 and the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) version 5.0 (MCIP50). Enhanced functionality in CMAQ53 includes the new Detailed Emissions Scaling, Isolation and Diagnostic (DESID) system for scaling incoming emissions to CMAQ and reading multiple gridded input emission files. Evaluation of CMAQ531 was performed by comparing monthly and seasonal mean daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 and daily PM2.5 values from several CMAQ531 simulations to a similarly configured CMAQ521 simulation encompassing 2016. For MDA8 O3, CMAQ531 has higher O3 in the winter versus CMAQ521, due primarily to reduced dry deposition to snow, which strongly reduces wintertime O3 bias (2-4 ppbv monthly average). MDA8 O3 is lower with CMAQ531 throughout the rest of the year, particularly in spring, due in part to reduced O3 from the lateral boundary conditions (BCs), which generally increases MDA8 O3 bias in spring and fall ( 0.5 µg m-3). For daily 24 h average PM2.5, CMAQ531 has lower concentrations on average in spring and fall, higher concentrations in summer, and similar concentrations in winter to CMAQ521, which slightly increases bias in spring and fall and reduces bias in summer. Comparisons were also performed to isolate updates to several specific aspects of the modeling system, namely the lateral BCs, meteorology model version, and the deposition model used. Transitioning from a hemispheric CMAQ (HCMAQ) version 5.2.1 simulation to a HCMAQ version 5.3 simulation to provide lateral BCs contributes to higher O3 mixing ratios in the regional CMAQ simulation in higher latitudes during winter (due to the decreased O3 dry deposition to snow in CMAQ53) and lower O3 mixing ratios in middle and lower latitudes year-round (due to reduced O3 over the ocean with CMAQ53). Transitioning from WRF version 3.8 to WRF version 4.1.1 with the HVC resulted in consistently higher (1.0-1.5 ppbv) MDA8 O3 mixing ratios and higher PM2.5 concentrations (0.1-0.25 µg m-3) throughout the year. Finally, comparisons of the M3Dry and STAGE deposition models showed that MDA8 O3 is generally higher with M3Dry outside of summer, while PM2.5 is consistently higher with STAGE due to differences in the assumptions of particle deposition velocities to non-vegetated surfaces and land use with short vegetation (e.g., grasslands) between the two models. For ambient NH3, STAGE has slightly higher concentrations and smaller bias in the winter, spring, and fall, while M3Dry has higher concentrations and smaller bias but larger error and lower correlation in the summer.

Predicting the Nonlinear Response of PM2.5 and Ozone to Precursor Emission Changes with a Response Surface Model.

Reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations is important to protect human health and the environment. Chemical transport models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, are valuable tools for exploring policy options for improving air quality but are computationally expensive. Here, we statistically fit an efficient polynomial function in a response surface model (pf-RSM) to CMAQ simulations over the eastern U.S. for January and July 2016. The pf-RSM predictions were evaluated using out-of-sample CMAQ simulations and used to examine the nonlinear response of air quality to emission changes. Predictions of the pf-RSM are in good agreement with the out-of-sample CMAQ simulations, with some exceptions for cases with anthropogenic emission reductions approaching 100%. NOX emission reductions were more effective for reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations than SO2, NH3, or traditional VOC emission reductions. NH3 emission reductions effectively reduced nitrate concentrations in January but increased secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in July. More work is needed on SOA formation under conditions of low NH3 emissions to verify the responses of SOA to NH3 emission changes predicted here. Overall, the pf-RSM performs well in the eastern U.S., but next-generation RSMs based on deep learning may be needed to meet the computational requirements of typical regulatory applications.