Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution of Food and Nutrient Production in China.

Ensuring food and nutrient supply is a crucial aspect of achieving food safety. With rapid population growth, urbanization, and social and economic development, the challenges related to China's food and nutrient production have become increasingly prominent. This paper analyzed the characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of food and nutrient production in China from 1995 to 2020, utilizing the conversion of various food nutrients and the establishment of a gravity center model. The results showed that: (1) Food production exhibited increasing trends in China, six regions, and 90% of the provinces. Notably, the structure of food production underwent significant changes in China, East China, Central-South China, Southwest China, Northwest China, and 60% of the provinces. (2) The output of all categories of food nutrients demonstrated increasing trends in China, six regions, and most provinces. At three different geographical scales, the changes of six food nutrients production structure showed significant differences. (3) Natural, political, social, economic, and technological factors played pivotal roles in influencing the gravity centers of food and nutrient production in China. The gravity centers of cereal production shifted northeast, while those of root and tuber, oil crops, and stimulants production moved westward. Additionally, the gravity centers of sugar crop, pulse, vegetable, fruit, and aquatic product production moved southwest and those of livestock and poultry production shifted northward. (4) Affected by the food production, the gravity centers of food energy, food protein, and food carbohydrate production shifted northward, while those of food fat, food vitamins, and food minerals production shifted northwest, southwest, and westward, respectively. The results of this study are of great significance for policy adjustments pertaining to the distribution pattern of food production, food security stability, and sustainable development in China.

Progress toward Sustainable Development Goals and interlinkages between them in Arctic countries.

The adoption of the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) contribute to addressing the multiple and complex challenges faced by humankind. In particular, the increasing impact of climate change and globalization represent a great challenge for the sustainable development of Arctic countries and efforts are needed to measure, assess, and compare the progress toward SDGs and the trends in this region. This study used 69 indicators closely related to Arctic countries and a composite indicator approach to assess their sustainability performance. SDG interlinkages were also assessed through Spearman's rank order correlation. The results showed that the sustainable development of Arctic countries gradually improved from 2000 to 2020, with increasing scores recorded for 82% of the goals and 73% of the indicators. Overall, significant progress was observed in the SDG 10 (reduction of inequality), SDG 3 (health improvement), and SDG 4 (quality of education). The highest-ranking scores were obtained for poverty reduction (SDG 1), SDG 3, and climate actions (SDG 13) in 2020. Over the 21-year period, Sweden reached the highest overall score for sustainable development, and Russia showed the greatest improvement. Synergies dominated over trade-offs among and within SDGs. SDGs 1, 3, 9, 10, and 11 presented a relatively higher proportion of synergies, while higher proportions of trade-offs were observed for the 8-9, 8-11, 3-12, and 10-12 SDG pairs. The associations of industry development with clean energy use and environmental conservation were strengthened during the study period. However, the performance varied greatly for different indicators, goals, and their correlations among Arctic countries. The results indicate that the main challenges for these countries in relation to SDGs consist in promoting an inclusive economic model as well as sustainable consumption and production patterns.

The spatiotemporal patterns and network characteristics of emissions embodied in the international trade of livestock products.

Livestock production is greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensive, and thus the increasing international trade of livestock products in recent decades has resulted in increased embodied emissions. Considering the varying emission intensity in production in different countries and the expected further increase in livestock product trade in the future, it becomes crucial to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of such embodied GHG emissions for climate change mitigation in the livestock sector. In this study, we aimed to address such gaps and analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and network characteristics of GHG emissions embodied in the international trade of seven major categories of livestock products among 228 world economies during 1986-2017. The results showed that the total volume of GHG emissions embodied in livestock product trade reached 92.0 MT in 2017, accounting for 2.6% of the total emissions from livestock production. Sheep meat has replaced cattle meat as the major contributor to embodied emissions. In 2017, the largest flows of embodied emissions were within Europe, followed by the flows from Oceania to Asia. The fluxes in intra-upper middle and intra-high-income economies accounted for most of the total embodied emissions. Although the global average emission intensity of livestock production declined in these four decades, the trade flows from high to low emission intensity economies increased, especially for cattle and sheep meat. This resulted in an overall increase of contribution from the global livestock trade in GHG emissions from the global livestock sector. Therefore, effective measures and policies must be designed from both consumption and production perspectives to ensure proper accounting of these embodied emissions and maximize the reduction potential for a sustainable food system transition.

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period.

The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020-2050 based on China's dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961-2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China's vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China's future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply-demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies.