Risk factors assessment and a Bayesian network model for predicting ischemic stroke in patients with cardiac myxoma.

Objective: This study aims to identify relevant risk factors, assess the interactions between variables, and establish a predictive model for ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with cardiac myxoma (CM) using the Bayesian network (BN) approach. Methods: Data of patients with CM were collected from three tertiary comprehensive hospitals in Beijing from January 2002 to January 2022. Age, sex, medical history, and information related to CM were extracted from the electronic medical record system. The BN model was constructed using the tabu search algorithm, and the conditional probability of each node was calculated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The probability of each node of the network and the interrelationship between IS and its related factors were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was also plotted. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) values were calculated and compared between the BN and logistic regression models to evaluate the efficiency of the predictive model. Results: A total of 416 patients with CM were enrolled in this study, including 61 with and 355 without IS. The BN model found that cardiac symptoms, systemic embolic symptoms, platelet counts, and tumor with high mobility were directly associated with the occurrence of IS in patients with CM. The BN model for predicting CM-IS achieved higher scores on AUC {0.706 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.639-0.773]} vs. [0.697 (95% CI, 0.629-0.766)] and sensitivity (99.44% vs. 98.87%), but lower scores on accuracies (85.82% vs. 86.06%) and specificity (6.56% vs. 11.48%) than the logistic regression model. Conclusion: Cardiac symptoms, systemic embolic symptoms, platelet counts, and tumor with high mobility are candidate predictors of IS in patients with CM. The BN model was superior or at least non-inferior to the traditional logistic regression model, and hence is potentially useful for early IS detection, diagnosis, and prevention in clinical practice.

Clinical features, risk factors and survival in cardiac myxoma-related ischemic stroke: A multicenter case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac myxoma (CM) is an important etiology of stroke in young adults, but studies on CM-related ischemic stroke (CM-IS) are limited and conflicting. Hence, we investigated clinical characterizations, risk factors of CM-IS, and short-term survival after surgical resection. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of data from all CM patients at three referral management centers and conducted follow-up examination. RESULTS: Among 414 CM patients, 402 were recruited for further analysis, including 54 patients with CM-IS and 348 patients with CM without stroke (Non-stroke). In the acute phase, patients presented with NIHSS 3 (interquartile range: 0-10) and clinical presentation comprising neurological, cardiac and constitutional symptoms. Multivariate analysis showed that the factors associated with an increased risk of CM-IS were tumor width < 30 mm [OR = 2.652, 95% CI: 1.061-6.627, P = 0.037], tumors with high-mobility (OR = 2.700, 95% CI: 1.357-5.371, P = 0.005), thrombus on the tumor surface (OR = 1.856, 95% CI: 1.003-3.434, P = 0.049), and lower B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels (OR = 0.995, 95% CI: 0.989-0.999, P = 0.047). The overall three-year survival rate was 95.7% (95% CI: 94.9-96.5) in CM-IS patients who underwent surgery. CONCLUSIONS: CM-IS patients had mild or moderate neurologic deficits with various presentations at disease onset. Narrower tumor width, tumors with high-mobility, thrombus on the tumor surface, and lower BNP levels are potential predictors of CM-IS development. Surgical removal of CM is safe and efficacious in patients with CM-IS.

Previous hypertensive hemorrhage increases the risk for bleeding and ischemia for PCI patients on dual antiplatelet therapy.

OBJECTIVES: The use of antiplatelet therapy after intracerebral hemorrhage remains controversial, while the use of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is required after cardiac stenting. In this study, we examine the risk of bleeding and ischemic events for PCI patients with a history of hypertensive hemorrhage on DAPT. METHODS: A total of 128 cases and 153 controls were selected from Chinese patients with cardiac stenting on dual anti-platelet therapy for a single-center retrospective case-control study. Patients with a history of hypertensive hemorrhage were selected for the case group, while patients with a history of hypertension were chosen as control. All patients were on aspirin 100 mg and clopidogrel 75 mg after cardiac stenting, and were followed for a duration of 12-48 months. The primary outcomes were intracerebral hemorrhage, major bleeding, and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. RESULTS: A history of previous hypertensive hemorrhage was not found to be a risk factor for intracerebral hemorrhage and major bleeding while on dual anti-platelet therapy. However, a history of either hypertensive hemorrhage or coronary artery disease was independently found to be risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. On sub-group analysis, patients with a history of hypertensive hemorrhage within 12 months were found to be at higher risk for bleeding on dual anti-platelet therapy, while patients with history of hypertensive hemorrhage outside of 12 months on dual anti-platelet therapy did not have the same increased risk. CONCLUSION: A history of hypertensive hemorrhage and coronary heart disease were two independent risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in PCI patients taking DAPT. A history of hypertensive hemorrhage less than 12 months had an increased risk for recurrent intracerebral hemorrhage and major bleeding in PCI patients taking DAPT.