Predictors of frequency of 1-year readmission in adult patients with diabetes.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is the third most common chronic condition associated with frequent hospital readmissions. Predictors of the number of readmissions within 1 year among patients with DM are less often studied compared with those of 30-day readmission. This study aims to identify predictors of number of readmissions within 1 year amongst adult patients with DM and compare different count regression models with respect to model fit. Data from 2008 to 2015 were extracted from the electronic medical records of the National University Hospital, Singapore. Inpatients aged ≥ 18 years at the time of index admission with a hospital stay > 24 h and survived until discharge were included. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model was fitted and compared with three other count models (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial) in terms of predicted probabilities, misclassification proportions and model fit. Adjusted for other variables in the model, the expected number of readmissions was 1.42 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07 to 1.90) for peripheral vascular disease, 1.60 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.92) for renal disease and 2.37 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.35) for Singapore residency. Number of emergency visits, number of drugs and age were other significant predictors, with length of stay fitted as a zero-inflated component. Model comparisons suggested that ZINB provides better prediction than the other three count models. The ZINB model identified five patient characteristics and two comorbidities associated with number of readmissions. It outperformed other count regression models but should be validated before clinical adoption.

Role of Occupational Health Services in Planning and Implementing of Staff COVID-19 Vaccination Clinic: A Tertiary Hospital Experience in Singapore.

CONTEXT: Healthcare workers all over the world were prioritized for vaccination against COVID-19 in view of the high-risk nature of their job scopes when vaccines were first available in late 2020. Vaccine hesitancy was an important problem to tackle in order to achieve a high vaccination rate, especially for vaccines that were developed using mRNA technology. We aimed to use the '3Cs' model to address vaccine hesitancy to ensure maximal uptake of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine among healthcare workers in a tertiary hospital in Singapore. METHODS: Various measures were used to reduce the confidence, complacency, and convenience barriers. The staff vaccination clinic was on-site and centralized, with appointments given in advance to ensure vaccine availability and to reduce wait time, providing convenience to staff. Direct and repeated communications with the staff via multiple channels were used to address vaccine safety and efficacy so as to promote confidence in the vaccines and overcome complacency barriers. To further encourage staff to get vaccinated, staff were allowed time off for vaccination when at work. Staff with a high risk of exposure to COVID-19 or those caring for immunocompromised patients were prioritized to take the vaccines first. The collection of data on adverse events was via on-site monitoring and consultation at Occupational Health Clinic (OHC). RESULTS: Nearly 80% of staff had completed vaccination when the vaccination exercise ended at the end of March 2021. With the loosening of the contraindications to vaccination over time, staff vaccination rates reached 89.3% in early July and nearly 99.9% by the end of the year. No major or serious vaccine-related medication or administration errors were reported. No staff had anaphylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: By using the '3Cs' model to plan out the vaccination exercise, it is possible to achieve a high vaccination rate coupled with effective and customized communications. This multi-disciplinary team approach can be adapted to guide vaccination efforts in various settings in future pandemics.

Predicting and Validating 30-day Hospital Readmission in Adults With Diabetes Whose Index Admission Is Diabetes-related.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to develop a prediction model of 30-day hospital readmission among adults with diabetes mellitus (DM) whose index admission was DM-related. The secondary aims are to internally and externally validate the prediction model and compare its performance with 2 existing models. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SETTING: Data of inpatients aged ≥ 18 years from 2008 to 2015 were extracted from the electronic medical record system of the National University Hospital, Singapore. Unplanned readmission within 30 days was calculated from the discharge date of the index hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression and 10-fold cross-validation were performed. For external validation, simulations based on prevalence of 30-day readmission, and the regression coefficients provided by referenced papers were conducted. RESULTS: Eleven percent of 2355 patients reported 30-day readmission. The prediction model included 4 predictors: length of stay, ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and number of drugs. C-statistics for the prediction model and 10-fold cross-validation were 0.68 (95% CI 0.66, 0.70) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.70), respectively. Those for the 3 simulated external validation data sets ranged from 0.64 to 0.68. CONCLUSION: The prediction model performs well with good internal and external validity for identifying patients with DM at risk of unplanned 30-day readmission.

The Associations Between Preoperative Anthropometry and Postoperative Outcomes in Infants Undergoing Congenital Heart Surgery.

Aim: We explored the association between preoperative anthropometry and biochemistry, and postoperative outcomes in infants with CHD after cardiac surgery, as infants with congenital heart disease (CHD) often have feeding difficulties and malnutrition. Methodology: This was a retrospective review of infants (≤ 1-year-old) who underwent congenital heart surgery. Preoperative anthropometryin terms of preoperative weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), length-for-age z-score (LAZ), as well as preoperative serum albumin and hemoglobin concentrations, were evaluated against 6-month mortality, and morbidity outcomes including postoperative complications, vasoactive inotrope score, duration of mechanical ventilation, length of stay in the pediatric intensive care unit and in hospital, using the logistic regression or median regression models accounting for infant-level clustering. Results: One hundred and ninety-nine operations were performed in 167 infants. Mean gestational age at birth was 38.0 (SD 2.2) weeks (range 26 to 41 weeks). Thirty (18.0%) infants were born preterm (<37 weeks). The commonest acyanotic and cyanotic lesions were ventricular septal defect (26.3%, 44/167), and tetralogy of Fallot (13.8%, 23/167), respectively. Mean age at cardiac surgery was 94 (SD 95) days. Feeding difficulties, including increased work of breathing during feeding, diaphoresis, choking or coughing during feeding, and inability to complete feeds, was present in 54.3% (108/199) of infants prior to surgery, of which 21.6% (43/199) required tube feeding. The mean preoperative WAZ was-1.31 (SD 1.79). Logistic regression models showed that low preoperative WAZ was associated with increased risk of postoperative complications (odds ratio 1.82; p = 0.02), and 6-month mortality (odds ratio 2.38; p = 0.008) following CHD surgery. There was no meaningful association between the other preoperative variables and other outcomes. Conclusion: More than 50% of infants with CHD undergoing cardiac surgery within the first year of life have feeding difficulties, of which 22% require to be tube-fed. Low preoperative WAZ is associated with increased postoperative complications and 6-month mortality.

Factors and experiences associated with unscheduled 30-day hospital readmission: A mixed method study.

INTRODUCTION: Analysis of risk factors can pave the way for reducing unscheduled hospital readmissions and improve resource utilisation. METHODS: This was a concurrent nested, mixed method study. Factors associated with patients readmitted within 30 days between 2011 and 2015 at the National University Hospital, Singapore (N=104,496) were examined. Fifty patients were sampled in 2016 to inform an embedded qualitative study. Narrative interviews explored the periods of readmissions and related experiences, contrasted against those of non-readmitted patients. RESULTS: Neoplastic disease (odds ratio [OR] 1.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-2.15), number of discharged medications (5 to 10 medications OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.14-1.29; ≥11 medications OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.66-1.95) and length of stay >7 days (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.36-1.58) were most significantly associated with readmissions. Other factors including number of surgical operations, subvention class, number of emergency department visits in the previous year, hospital bill size, gender, age, Charlson comorbidity index and ethnicity were also independently associated with hospital readmissions. Although readmitted and non-readmitted patients shared some common experiences, they reported different psychological reactions to their illnesses and viewed hospital care differently. Negative emotions, feeling of being left out by the healthcare team and perception of ineffective or inappropriate treatment were expressed by readmitted patients. CONCLUSION: Patient, hospital and system-related factors were associated with readmissions, which may allow early identification of at-risk patients. Qualitative analysis suggested several areas of improvement in care including greater empowerment and involvement of patients in care and decision making.

Safety and side effect profile of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccination among healthcare workers: A tertiary hospital experience in Singapore.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination remains a key strategy to living endemically with COVID-19. The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine was first granted interim authorisation for use in Singapore in December 2020. With overseas studies published about the safety and side effect profiles of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines focusing mainly on non-Asian populations, we described the side effects of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccination experienced by the healthcare workers (HCWs) in a tertiary hospital in Singapore. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Occupational Health Clinic (OHC) at the National University Hospital in Singapore, which monitored staff for any adverse effects within 30 minutes post vaccination on-site and any adverse effects after that. A cross-sectional study among the vaccinated HCWs was conducted using an online survey, which established basic demographics, histories of allergies or atopic disorders, and adverse events encountered after dose 1 and dose 2 of vaccination. RESULTS: No anaphylaxis was reported. Most common symptom was giddiness (32.7%) experienced by HCWs within 30 minutes. Adverse events attended post-vaccination by OHC were generally mild and self-limiting. From the survey, odds of experiencing an adverse event after dose 2 was significantly higher than after the first dose, especially for fever/chills (odds ratio [OR] 22.5). Fever/chills, injection site reactions, headache, aches and pains, and feeling unwell were significantly more common in HCWs below 60 years compared to those ≥60 years. An allergy to food (adjusted OR 2.7) and a history of eczema/sensitive skin (adjusted OR 2.6) were associated with a skin reaction not at injection site. CONCLUSION: The side effects experienced after Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines are generally self-limiting and mild, with no anaphylaxis reported.

Establishing a New Normal for Hospital Care: A Whole of Hospital Approach to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Singapore's hospitals had prepared to receive patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), planning various scenarios and levels of surge with a policy of isolating all confirmed cases as inpatients. The National University Hospital adopted a whole of hospital approach to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with 3 primary goals: zero hospital-acquired COVID-19, all patients receive timely necessary care, and maintenance of staff morale. These goals to date have been met. A large influx of COVID-19 cases required significant transformation of clinical and operational processes. Isolation room numbers almost tripled and dedicated COVID-19 cohort wards were established, elective care was postponed, and intensive care units were augmented with equipment and manpower. In the wake of the surge, establishing a new normal for hospital care requires maintaining vigilance to detect endemic COVID-19, establishing contingency plans to ramp up in case of another surge, while returning to business as usual.

Predictors of 30-day unplanned hospital readmission among adult patients with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

Adult patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) represent one-fifth of all 30-day unplanned hospital readmissions but some may be preventable through continuity of care with better DM self-management. We aim to synthesize evidence concerning the association between 30-day unplanned hospital readmission and patient-related factors, insurance status, treatment and comorbidities in adult patients with DM. We searched full-text English language articles in three electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL) without confining to a particular publication period or geographical area. Prospective and retrospective cohort and case-control studies which identified significant risk factors of 30-day unplanned hospital readmission were included, while interventional studies were excluded. The study participants were aged ≥18 years with either type 1 or 2 DM. The random effects model was used to quantify the overall effect of each factor. Twenty-three studies published between 1998 and 2018 met the selection criteria and 18 provided information for the meta-analysis. The data were collected within a period ranging from 1 to 15 years. Although patient-related factors such as age, gender and race were identified, comorbidities such as heart failure (OR=1.81, 95% CI 1.67 to 1.96) and renal disease (OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.12), as well as insulin therapy (OR=1.45, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.71) and insurance status (OR=1.41, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.63) were stronger predictors of 30-day unplanned hospital readmission. The findings may be used to target DM self-management education at vulnerable groups based on comorbidities, insurance type, and insulin therapy.

Responding to COVID-19: how an academic infectious diseases division mobilized in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: On January 30, COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern-a week after Singapore's first imported case and 5 days before local transmission. The National University Hospital (NUH) is Singapore's third largest hospital with 1200 beds, heavy clinical workloads, and major roles in research and teaching. MAIN BODY: With memories of SARS still vivid, there was an urgent requirement for the NUH Division of Infectious Diseases to adapt-undergoing major reorganization to face rapidly changing priorities while ensuring usual essential services and standards. Leveraging on individual strengths, our division mobilized to meet the demands of COVID-19 while engaging in high-level coordination, strategy, and advocacy. We present our experience of the 60 days since the nation's first case. During this time, our hospital has managed 3030 suspect cases, including 1300 inpatients, 37 confirmed cases, and overseen 4384 samples tested for COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Complex hospital adaptations were supported by an unprecedented number of workflows and coordination channels essential to safe and effective operations. The actions we describe, aligned with international recommendations and emerging evidence-based best practices, may serve as a framework for other divisions and institutions facing the spread of COVID-19 globally.

Percutaneous pulmonary valve implantation as an alternative to repeat open-heart surgery for patients with pulmonary outflow obstruction: a reality in Singapore.

Right ventricle to pulmonary artery (RV-PA) conduits have been used for the surgical repair of congenital heart defects. These conduits frequently become stenosed or develop insufficiency with time, necessitating reoperations. Percutanous pulmonary valve implantation (PPVI) can delay the need for repeated surgeries in patients with congenital heart defects and degenerated RV-PA conduits. We presented our first experience with PPVI and described in detail the procedural methods and the considerations that are needed for this intervention to be successful. Immediate and short-term clinical outcomes of our patients were reported. Good haemodynamic results were obtained, both angiographically and on echocardiography. PPVI provides an excellent alternative to repeat open-heart surgery for patients with congenital heart defects and degenerated RV-PA conduits. This represents a paradigm shift in the management of congenital heart disease, which is traditionally managed by open-heart surgery.

A novel model for predicting non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulins in Kawasaki disease: The Singapore experience.

AIM: We aimed to assess the utility of four published risk-scoring methods in predicting intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) non-responsiveness in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients from Singapore and develop a new predictive model. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of 215 KD children. The performance of existing scoring methods in identifying non-responsive cases based on sensitivities (SN) and specificities (SP) was evaluated in 122 Singaporean Chinese. From our dataset, a model involving six predictors was built. RESULTS: The following respective SN (%) and SP (%) were obtained: Egami: 26%, 68%; Kobayashi: 21%, 62%; Sano: 13%, 86% and Fukunishi: 46%, 71%. These results indicated that the existing scoring methods performed poorly compared to those reported in their respective original publications, which ranged between 68 and 87%. The new predictive model was derived with an improved SN (80%) and SP (80%). CONCLUSIONS: Currently available risk-scoring methods have less applicability in the Singaporean Chinese population. The proposed new risk-scoring predictive model derived based on data from Chinese cohort demonstrated much better SN and SP.

De novo aortopathy and cardiovascular outcomes in paediatric liver transplant recipients.

With the increase in long-term survival of post-transplant children, there is a paradigm shift in the emphasis of post-transplant care. We describe de novo cardiovascular abnormalities, which occurred in otherwise asymptomatic paediatric liver transplant recipients, who received liver allografts between 1991 and 2014 at the National University Hospital, Singapore, detected during routine post-transplant monitoring. A total of 96 paediatric liver transplants were performed in 90 children. After transplant, 7/90 (7.8%) recipients were identified with new-onset aortopathy. Glycogen storage disease type I (42.9% versus 2.4%; p<0.001) and recipient Epstein-Barr virus seropositivity (85.7 versus 31.0%, p=0.004) were significant risk factors for aortopathy on univariate analysis. On multivariate analysis, only glycogen storage disease type I remained as the significant risk factor (odds ratio 51.3 [95% confidence intervals: 1.1-2498.1, p=0.047]). Liver transplant is a double-edged sword that reverses certain cardiopulmonary complications of end-stage liver disease but may induce de novo structural cardiac injury in the form of aortic dilation.

Coronary manifestations of Kawasaki Disease in computed tomography coronary angiography.

Coronary arteritis in Kawasaki disease can lead to serious complications such myocardial infarction and sudden death. The identification of coronary manifestations with a method that is minimally invasive and of low radiation exposure is therefore important in paediatric patients with Kawasaki disease. Coronary CT angiography can be an attractive alternative to invasive coronary angiography. This paper describes imaging techniques for coronary CT angiography in pediatric patients and demonstrates the spectrum of cardiovascular manifestations in patients with Kawasaki disease.

A meta-analysis of transcatheter device closure of perimembranous ventricular septal defect.

BACKGROUND: While transcatheter device closure of ventricular septal defects (VSDs) is gaining popularity, concerns remain about adverse events; particularly heart block in peri-membranous VSDs (pmVSDs). The aim of this study is to ascertain outcomes of transcatheter device closure of pmVSDs through a meta-analysis of current literature. METHODS: A PubMed and Scopus search for studies in English on device closure of pmVSDs published till end-February 2017 was performed. Exclusion criteria included case series already included in multi-centre studies, sample size <5, and VSD acquired following myocardial infarction. Pooled estimates of success and complications was obtained using the random effects model. RESULTS: A total of 54 publications comprising 6762 patients with pmVSDs were included. The mean age of patients ranged from 1.6 to 37.4years. The pooled estimate of successful device implantation is 97.8% (95% CI: 96.8 to 98.6). The most common complication is residual shunt (15.9%; 95% CI: 10.9 to 21.5). Other complications include arrhythmias (10.3%; 95% CI: 8.3 to 12.4) and valvular defects (4.1%; 95% CI: 2.4 to 6.1). The pooled estimate of complete atrioventricular block (cAVB) is 1.1% (95% CI: 0.5 to 1.9). CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis suggests that device closure of pmVSDs is a safe and effective procedure. The complication of cAVB is low but significant. The risk is expected to further reduce with newer devices which are less stiff with improved profiles. Further studies validating this will be useful in formulating guidelines for device closure of pmVSDs.

Evidence of Microvascular Changes in the Retina following Kawasaki Disease.

It is unclear whether all children with Kawasaki disease (KD) have increased later cardiovascular risk. The retinal microvasculature reflects changes in the microcirculation and is associated with traditional cardiovascular risk factors and events. The aim of this study was to investigate retinal microvascular parameters in two populations of patients with previous KD and control participants. We performed case-control studies of 116 (57 patients and 59 control participants) Australian and 156 (78 patients and 78 control participants) Singaporean individuals, at least two years since their acute illness. Standardised retinal photographs were graded by trained technicians using a semi-automated software, which quantifies the retinal microvasculature (calibre, branching angle, fractal dimensions, and tortuosity). Retinal venules of Singaporean KD patients were 9.67 µm (95% CI 4.87 to 14.51, p < 0.001) larger than control participants following correction for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. An incremental increase in the size of retinal venules in those with coronary artery abnormalities was observed. There was limited evidence that retinal venules were larger in Australian KD patients with coronary artery abnormalities compared to control participants (7.34 µm, 95% CI 1.30 to 15.99, p = 0.10). Differences in retinal microvasculature were particularly evident in Singaporean KD patients. Larger retinal venules may reflect chronic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction, and are associated with coronary artery disease in adults.

The genetic variation rs6903956 in the novel androgen-dependent tissue factor pathway inhibitor regulating protein (ADTRP) gene is not associated with levels of plasma coagulation factors in the Singaporean Chinese.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association study (GWAS) has reported that rs6903956 within the first intron of androgen-dependent tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) regulating protein (ADTRP) gene is associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk in the Chinese population. Although ADTRP is believed to be involved in the upregulation of TFPI, the underlying mechanism involved is largely unknown. This study investigated the association of rs6903956 with plasma Factor VII coagulant activity (FVIIc) and fibrinogen levels, which are regulated by TFPI and are independent risk predictors for CAD. METHODS: We conducted the analysis in both Chinese adult (N = 309) and neonatal cohorts (N = 447). The genotypes of the rs6903956 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were determined by the polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism method (PCR-RFLP). FVIIc and fibrinogen level were measured from citrated plasma. The association between rs6903956 and coagulation factors was tested by linear regression with adjustment for possible confounders. Analysis was carried out in adults and neonates separately. RESULTS: No significant association was observed between rs6903956 and plasma FVIIc nor fibrinogen levels with adjustment for age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and cigarette smoking in adults (P for FVIIc = 0.464; P for fibrinogen = 0.349). The SNP was also not associated with these two coagulation factors in the neonates (P for FVIIc = 0.579; P for fibrinogen = 0.359) after adjusting for gestational age, gender and birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: SNP rs6903956 on ADTRP gene was not associated with plasma FVIIc nor fibrinogen levels.