The economic recession: early impacts on health care safety net providers.

While the recession increased demands on the health care safety net as Americans lost jobs and health insurance, the impact on safety net providers has been mixed and less severe--at least initially--than expected in some cases, according to a new study of five metropolitan communities by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC). Even before the recession, many safety net providers reported treating more uninsured patients and facing tighter state and local funding. Federal expansion grants for community health centers during the past decade, however, have increased capacity at many health centers. And, programs to help direct people to primary care providers may have helped stem the expected surge in emergency department use by the uninsured during the downturn. Federal stimulus funding--the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act--has assisted hospitals and health centers in weathering the economic storm, helping to offset reductions in state, local and private funding. And, the economic downturn has generated some potential benefits, including lower rents and broader employee applicant pools. While safety net providers have adopted strategies to stay financially viable, many believe they have not yet felt the full impact of the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

Individual insurance: health insurers try to tap potential market growth.

Individual insurance is the only source of health coverage for people without access to employer-sponsored insurance or public insurance. Individual insurance traditionally has been sought by older, sicker individuals who perceive the need for insurance more than younger, healthier people. The attraction of a sicker population to the individual market creates adverse selection, leading insurers to employ medical underwriting--which most states allow--to either avoid those with the greatest health needs or set premiums more reflective of their expected medical use. Recently, however, several factors have prompted insurers to recognize the growth potential of the individual market: a declining proportion of people with employer-sponsored insurance, a sizeable population of younger, healthier people forgoing insurance, and the likelihood that many people receiving subsidies to buy insurance under proposed health insurance reforms would buy individual coverage. Insurers are pursuing several strategies to expand their presence in the individual insurance market, including entering less-regulated markets, developing lower-cost, less-comprehensive products targeting younger, healthy consumers, and attracting consumers through the Internet and other new distribution channels, according to a new study by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC). Insurers' strategies in the individual insurance market are unlikely to meet the needs of less-than-healthy people seeking affordable, comprehensive coverage. Congressional health reform proposals, which envision a larger role for the individual market under a sharply different regulatory framework, would likely supersede insurers' current individual market strategies.

The effect of community-level unemployment on preventive oral health care utilization.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that high community-level unemployment is associated with reduced use of preventive dental care services by a dentally insured population. DATA: The study uses monthly data on population dental visits and unemployment in the Seattle and Spokane areas from 1995 to 2004. Utilization data come from Washington Dental Services. Unemployment data were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Washington's Employment Security Department. STUDY DESIGN: The study uses a Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method to measure the association between the variables over time. The approach controls for the effects of autocorrelation, seasonality, and confounding variables. FINDINGS: In the Seattle area, an unexpected 10,000 unit increase in the number of unemployed individuals is associated with a 1.24 percent decrease in preventive visits during the month ( p=.0043). In the Spokane area, a similar increase in unemployment is associated with a 5.95 percent decrease in preventive visits ( p=.0326). The findings persist when the independent variable is the number of initial unemployment insurance claims. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis suggests that utilization of preventive dental care declines during periods of high community-level unemployment. Community-level unemployment may impede or distract populations from utilizing preventive dental services. The study's findings have implications for insurers, dentists, policy makers, and researchers.

The American Community Survey and health insurance coverage estimates: possibilities and challenges for health policy researchers.

OBJECTIVE: To introduce the American Community Survey (ACS) and its measure of health insurance coverage to researchers and policy makers. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: We compare the survey designs for the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS) that measure insurance coverage. STUDY DESIGN: We describe the ACS and how it will be useful to health policy researchers. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relative to the CPS, the ACS will provide more precise state and substate estimates of health insurance coverage at a point-in-time. Yet the ACS lacks the historical data and detailed state-specific coverage categories seen in the CPS. CONCLUSIONS: The ACS will be a critical new resource for researchers. To use the new data to the best advantage, careful research will be needed to understand its strengths and weaknesses.

Research glut and information famine: making research evidence more useful for policymakers.

The gap between the two worlds of researchers and policymakers renders the use of research in the policy-making process problematic. Policymakers have three primary needs in their use of research evidence: clear translation, accessible and easy-to-use information, and relevance to the policy context. These needs are sometimes at odds with the priorities of the research community. This paper describes the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Synthesis Project, which aims to strengthen links between research and policy making by synthesizing evidence on pressing health policy questions.

Estimating the effect of smoking cessation on weight gain: an instrumental variable approach.

OBJECTIVE: To propose and test a method that produces an unbiased estimate of the average effect of smoking cessation on weight gain. Previous estimates may be biased due to unobservable differences in attributes of quitters and continuing smokers. An accurate estimate of weight gain due to cessation is important for policymakers, health managers, clinicians, consumers, and developers of smoking cessation aids. STUDY SETTING: Our analysis consisted of an instrumental variables (IVs) approach in which treatment assignment in randomized smoking cessation trials served as a random source of variation in probability of quitting. DATA COLLECTION: We searched the medical literature for previously conducted smoking cessation trials that contained data suitable for our reanalysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified one trial for our reanalysis, the Lung Health Study, a randomized smoking cessation trial with 5,887 smokers aged 35-60 from 1986 to 1994 in several sites across the United States. In our IV reanalysis, we estimated a 9.7 kg weight gain over 5 years due to cessation, as compared with the conventional estimate of 5.3 kg. CONCLUSIONS: The true effect of smoking cessation on weight gain may be larger than previously estimated. This result indicates the importance of fully understanding the possible weight effects of cessation and underscores the need to accompany cessation programs with weight management interventions. The result, however, does not overturn the conclusion that the net health benefits of quitting are positive and very large. The application of the IV technique we propose is likely to be useful in a variety of contexts in which one is interested in the effect of one health condition on another.

Do physicians always flee from HMOs? New results using dynamic panel estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of changes in relative health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration on changes in the physician-to-population ratio in California counties when changes in the economic conditions in California counties relative to the U.S. average are taken into account. DATA SOURCES: Data on physicians who practiced in California at any time from 1988 to 1998 were obtained from the AMA Masterfile. The analysis was restricted to active, patient care physicians, excluding medical residents. Data on other covariates in the model were obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, InterStudy, the Area Resource File, and the California state government. Data were merged using county FIPS codes. STUDY DESIGN: Changes in the physician-to-population ratio in California counties include the effects of both intrastate migration and interstate migration. A reduced-form model was estimated using the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimator. Economic conditions in California relative to the U.S. were measured as the ratio of county-level real per capita income to national-level real per capita income. Relative HMO penetration in California was measured as the ratio of county-level HMO penetration to HMO penetration in the U.S. relative HMO penetration was instrumented using five identifying variables to address potential endogeneity. Omitted-variable bias was controlled for by first differencing the model. The model also incorporated eight other covariates that may be associated with the demand for physicians: the percentage of the population enrolled in Medicaid, beds in short-term hospitals per 100,000 population, the percentage of the population that is black, the percentage of the population that is Hispanic, the percentage of the population that is Asian, the percentage of the population that is below age 18, the percentage of the population that is aged 65 and older, and the percentage of the population that are new legal immigrants in a given year. All of the above variables were lagged one period. The lagged physician-to-population ratio was also included to control for the supply of physicians. Separate equations were estimated for primary care physicians and specialist physicians. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Changes in lagged relative HMO penetration are negatively associated with changes in specialist physicians per 100,000 population. However, this effect of HMO penetration is attenuated and at times reversed in areas where the magnitude of the difference in relative economic conditions is sufficiently large. We did not find any statistically significant effects for primary care physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with prior studies, we find that changes in physician supply are associated with changes in relative HMO penetration. Relative economic conditions are an important moderator of the effect of changes in relative HMO penetration on physician migration.