Climate finance and conflict: adaptation amid instability.

Conflict and climate change might be present in the same areas and expose communities that struggle with these dual risks, but they do not co-occur in consistent or predictable ways. We question how to effectively adapt to climate change in areas experiencing violence. Conflict can make adaptation to climate change more difficult, but when local conflict patterns are better understood it is possible to introduce climate adaptation measures that are effective and responsive to the needs of the population. Further, we argue that conflict mitigation is not a climate adaptation. Even in conflict zones, the most effective climate adaptations focus on climate-centred technical solutions and poverty reduction, local governance legitimacy, and community-led efforts to cooperate in periods of climate stress. We outline some of these possibilities.

The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa.

This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.