Navigating Physical Activity Promotion and Policy in the Post-COVID-19-Pandemic Era.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the priorities and opportunities associated with promoting population physical activity (PA) participation for the post-COVID-19-pandemic future. PURPOSE: This study assessed government-led PA promotion efforts before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, along with post-COVID-19-pandemic priorities and recommendations. METHODS: Two separate cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2023. Survey 1 was targeted at the Global Observatory for Physical Activity (GoPA!) Country Contacts. Survey 2 also included key international informants representing influential stakeholders in PA policy implementation. RESULTS: There were 68 respondents to Survey 1, collectively representing 61 countries. An additional 37 people, including representatives from 14 key international stakeholders responded to Survey 2. Eighty-two percent of countries had national PA policies. COVID-19 widely disrupted PA policy implementation. Less than 40% of countries integrated PA into their COVID-19 response plan and more than 75% reported policies that restricted PA participation. Although most respondents indicated that government PA priorities did not change due to the COVID-19 pandemic, one in five countries reported that cross-sectoral partnership had become more important during this period. Less than a third of postpandemic governments reported as highly engaged despite the widespread proliferation of PA policies and plans prior to the pandemic. There were variations according to country, region, and income. CONCLUSIONS: Elevating PA promotion on the public health agenda is crucial for the post-COVID-19-pandemic era. At a policy level, it is critical to focus on adequate resourcing, cross-sectoral partnerships, integrated interventions, and inequities in participation. These factors have become increasingly important in the postpandemic PA policy landscape.

Severity and mortality of acute respiratory failure in pediatrics: A prospective multicenter cohort in Bogotá, Colombia.

Background and Aims: Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most frequent cause of cardiorespiratory arrest and subsequent death in children worldwide. There have been limited studies regarding ARF in high altitude settings. The aim of this study was to calculate mortality and describe associated factors for severity and mortality in children with ARF. Methods: The study was conducted within a prospective multicentric cohort that evaluated the natural history of pediatric ARF. For this analysis three primary outcomes were studied: mortality, invasive mechanical ventilation, and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) length of stay. Eligible patients were children older than 1 month and younger than 18 years of age with respiratory difficulty at the time of admission. Patients who developed ARF were followed at the time of ARF, 48 h later, at the time of discharge, and at 30 and 60 days after discharge. It was conducted in the pediatric emergency, in-hospital, and critical-care services in three hospitals in Bogotá, Colombia, from April 2020 to June 2021. Results: Out of a total of 685 eligible patients, 296 developed ARF for a calculated incidence of ARF of 43.2%. Of the ARF group, 90 patients (30.4%) needed orotracheal intubation, for a mean of 9.57 days of ventilation (interquartile range = 3.00-11.5). Incidence of mortality was 6.1% (n = 18). The associated factors for mortality in ARF were a history of a neurologic comorbidity and a higher fraction of inspired oxygen at ARF diagnosis. For PICU length of stay, the associated factors were age between 2 and 5 years of age, exposure to smokers, and respiratory comorbidity. Finally, for mechanical ventilation, the risk factors were obesity and being unstable at admission. Conclusions: ARF is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in children. Understanding the factors associated with greater mortality and severity of ARF might allow earlier recognition and initiation of prompt treatment strategies.

The Evolution of Physical Activity and Health Research in China: A Bibliometric Analysis of Study Areas and Sex Balance in Authorship.

BACKGROUND: This article evaluates the evolution of physical activity and health research in China through a bibliometric analysis focused on number of publications, study areas, and sex balance in authorship. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by the Global Observatory for Physical Activity for "physical activity and health" publications between 1950 and 2019. Here, we focus on the 610 Chinese publications identified, defined as those in which data collection took place in China. We assessed the number of publications, classified them into 5 areas (1) surveillance, (2) correlates and determinants, (3) health consequences, (4) interventions, and (5) policy, and analyzed female participation in authorship. RESULTS: The first Chinese publication identified in the review was in 1990. Since, the average number of physical activity and health publications increased from one per year in the 1990s to 7.6 per year in the 2000s, and to 47 per year in the 2010s. Most publications focused on the correlates and determinants (38.7%) and the health consequences of physical activity (35.9%). Physical activity policy accounted for 2.3% of the publications. In the 1990s, 64% of the publications included at least one female author; this proportion increased to 90% in the 2010s. CONCLUSION: Despite a slow start, China's research on physical activity and health has grown rapidly since 2000. The distribution of publications by study areas and female participation in authorship is similar to that observed globally, with fewer publications focused on interventions and policy as compared with other topics.

Gender Differences in Physical Activity and Health-Related Authorships Between 1950 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to investigate gender differences in authorship in physical activity and health research. METHODS: A bibliometric study including 23,399 articles from 105 countries was conducted to estimate the participation of female researchers in physical activity publications from 1950 to 2019. The frequency of female researchers was analyzed and classified by first and last authors and the overall percentage of female authors by region and country. RESULTS: The proportion of female first authors increased from <10% in the 50s and 80s to 55% in the last decade. On the other hand, the proportion of last authors increased from 8.7% to 41.1% in the same period. Most publications with female researchers were from the United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil, the Netherlands, Spain, England, Germany, Sweden, and China. Nine of these countries had over 50% of the articles published by female first authors. However, in all 10 countries, <50% of the articles were published by female last authors. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of female researchers increased over time. However, regional differences exist and should be addressed in gender equity policies. There is a gap in the participation of female researchers as last authors. By actively addressing the gender gap in research, the global society can harness the full potential of all talented individuals, regardless of gender, leading to more inclusive and impactful scientific advancements.

Self-perception of mental health, COVID-19 and associated sociodemographic-contextual factors in Latin America.

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of alterations in self-perceived mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic and their associated factors in four Latin American countries. This is a cross-sectional study based on data collected from adults in 2021 through the Collaborative Response COVID-19 Survey by the MacDonnell Academy at Washington University in St. Louis (United States). The sample was composed of 8,125 individuals from Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Chile. A generalized linear model for a binary outcome variable with a logistic link and fixed country effects was used. There were 2,336 (28.75%) individuals who considered having suffered alterations in self-perceived mental health. Unemployed individuals (OR = 1.40; 95%CI: 1.24-1.58), those with bad/regular quality of life (OR = 5.03; 95%CI: 4.01-6.31), and those with high socioeconomic status (OR = 1.66; 95%CI: 1.41-1.96) had a higher risk of self-perceived mental health alterations than those with full-time employment, excellent quality, and low socioeconomic status. According to the fixed-effects model, Brazilians living in the country during the pandemic, who disagreed with their government's decisions (OR = 2.05; 95%CI: 1.74-2.42) and lacked trust in their government (OR = 2.10; 95%CI: 1.74-2.42) had a higher risk of having self-perceived mental health alterations. Nearly 30% of respondents indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic altered their self-perceived mental health. This outcome was associated with political, sociodemographic, and health risk factors. These findings should help policymakers develop post-pandemic community interventions.

An Overview of Physical Activity Research Evolution in Africa: The Global Observatory for Physical Activity-GoPA!

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of physical activity (PA) research in Africa, examine income and gender inequalities, and discuss future possibilities. METHODS: A secondary analyses of the Global Observatory for Physical Activity data on PA research in Africa (1950-2019). RESULTS: We identified 514 PA articles from 47 African countries in the past 70 years. Majority (83.1%) of the articles were published between 2012 and 2019. Fifteen countries had no publications. Six countries (South Africa [n = 156], Nigeria [n = 85], Ethiopia [n = 44], Ghana [n = 41], Kenya [n = 39], and Cameroon [n = 20]) accounted for about 75% of the publications. Most articles were observational (92.4%), single-country studies (78.4%), with male first (58.4%) and last authors (68%), and were classified as surveillance studies (45.1%). Few studies addressed interventions (5.8%) and policy (3.5%) or used device-based PA measurement (14.0%). The number of articles per country was positively related to human population level (r = .552, P = .000) and gross domestic product % spent on research and development (r = .301, P = .040). The publication rate per 100,000 people was positively related with the human development index (r = .349, P = .016) and negatively with the gender inequality index (r = -.360, P = .019). CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide an overview and status of PA research in Africa, highlighting country differences and gender inequalities in authorship. The findings may be used to benchmark the evolution of research in the region and to inform areas for improvement. There is an urgent need for more PA interventions and policy studies in Africa.

Breaking Barriers: An Innovative Tool to Assess the National and City-Level Physical Activity Policy Development to Practice Disconnect.

BACKGROUND: Population-level physical activity increases are improbable without intersectoral collaboration across government levels and sectors to develop and implement physical activity promotion policies. This study aims to provide information about the development of the Interaction between National and Local Government Levels in Development and Implementation of Physical Activity Policies Tool (INTEGRATE PA-Pol). A framework was created to examine the development and implementation of national and subnational physical activity policies and the (mis)alignment between government levels. METHODS: The work was conducted in 3 phases: (1) a scoping review was carried out to identify local government physical activity promotion policies and instruments for assessing them, (2) an expert group designed 6 questionnaires, and (3) cognitive response testing was employed for validity testing and item modification with a panel of research and policy experts. RESULTS: The INTEGRATE PA-Pol Tool consists of 6 questionnaires assessing how national and subnational governments collaborate to develop and implement physical activity promotion policies. CONCLUSION: This tool can assist in better understanding the development and implementation of a public policy monitoring system that will allow for benchmarking and priority setting to comprehend how physical activity promotion policies are designed and executed.

Self-perception of mental health, COVID-19 and associated sociodemographic-contextual factors in Latin America / Autopercepción de la salud mental, COVID-19 y factores sociodemográficos y contextuales asociados en Latinoamérica / Autopercepção da saúde mental, COVID-19 e fatores sociodemográficos e contextuais associados na América Latina

Abstract This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of alterations in self-perceived mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic and their associated factors in four Latin American countries. This is a cross-sectional study based on data collected from adults in 2021 through the Collaborative Response COVID-19 Survey by the MacDonnell Academy at Washington University in St. Louis (United States). The sample was composed of 8,125 individuals from Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Chile. A generalized linear model for a binary outcome variable with a logistic link and fixed country effects was used. There were 2,336 (28.75%) individuals who considered having suffered alterations in self-perceived mental health. Unemployed individuals (OR = 1.40; 95%CI: 1.24-1.58), those with bad/regular quality of life (OR = 5.03; 95%CI: 4.01-6.31), and those with high socioeconomic status (OR = 1.66; 95%CI: 1.41-1.96) had a higher risk of self-perceived mental health alterations than those with full-time employment, excellent quality, and low socioeconomic status. According to the fixed-effects model, Brazilians living in the country during the pandemic, who disagreed with their government's decisions (OR = 2.05; 95%CI: 1.74-2.42) and lacked trust in their government (OR = 2.10; 95%CI: 1.74-2.42) had a higher risk of having self-perceived mental health alterations. Nearly 30% of respondents indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic altered their self-perceived mental health. This outcome was associated with political, sociodemographic, and health risk factors. These findings should help policymakers develop post-pandemic community interventions.

Resumen Este estudio tuvo como objetivo estimar la prevalencia de alteraciones en la autopercepción de la salud mental durante la pandemia de COVID-19 y sus factores asociados en cuatro países de América Latina. Este es un estudio transversal de datos recopilados de adultos en el 2021 por medio de la investigación Respuesta Colaborativa a COVID-19 de la Academia McDonnell en la Universidad Washington en St. Louis (Estados Unidos). La muestra estuvo compuesta por 8.125 personas de Brasil, Colombia, México y Chile. El estudio utilizó un modelo lineal generalizado para una variable de desenlace binario con un enlace logístico y efectos fijos por país. En total, 2.336 (28,75%) personas consideraron que habían sufrido alteraciones en la autopercepción de la salud mental. Los desempleados (OR = 1,40; IC95%: 1,24-1,58), aquellos con calidad de vida mala/regular (OR = 5,03; IC95%: 4,01-6,31) y aquellos con alto nivel socioeconómico (OR = 1,66; IC95%: 1,41-1,96) presentaron mayor riesgo de alteraciones en la autopercepción de la salud mental que aquellos con empleo a tiempo completo, excelente calidad y bajo nivel socioeconómico. Según el modelo de efectos fijos, los brasileños que vivían en el país durante la pandemia y que no estuvieron de acuerdo con las decisiones del gobierno (OR = 2,05; IC95%: 1,74-2,42) y no confiaban en su gobierno (OR = 2,10; IC95%: 1,74-2,42) presentaron mayor riesgo de alteraciones en la autopercepción de la salud mental. Casi el 30% de los encuestados indicaron que la pandemia de COVID-19 alteró su autopercepción de la salud mental. Este desenlace se asoció con factores políticos, sociodemográficos y de riesgo a la salud. Estos hallazgos deben ayudar a los formuladores de políticas a desarrollar intervenciones comunitarias pospandémicas.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar a prevalência de alterações na autopercepção de saúde mental durante a pandemia de COVID-19 e seus fatores associados em quatro países da América Latina. Este é um estudo transversal de dados coletados de adultos em 2021 por meio da pesquisa Resposta Colaborativa à COVID-19 da Academia McDonnell na Universidade Washington em St. Louis (Estados Unidos). A amostra foi composta por 8.125 pessoas do Brasil, Colômbia, México e Chile. O estudo utilizou um modelo linear generalizado para uma variável de desfecho binário com uma conexão logística e efeitos fixos do país. No total, 2.336 (28,75%) pessoas consideraram ter sofrido alterações na autopercepção de saúde mental. Os desempregados (OR = 1,40; IC95%: 1,24-1,58), aqueles com qualidade de vida ruim/regular (OR = 5,03; IC95%: 4,01-6,31) e aqueles com alto nível socioeconômico (OR = 1,66; IC95%: 1,41-1,96) apresentaram maior risco de alterações na autopercepção de saúde mental do que aqueles com emprego em tempo integral, excelente qualidade e baixo nível socioeconômico. De acordo com o modelo de efeitos fixos, os brasileiros que viviam no país durante a pandemia, que discordavam das decisões do governo (OR = 2,05; IC95%: 1,74-2,42) e não confiavam em seu governo (OR = 2,10; IC95%: 1,74-2,42) apresentaram maior risco de alterações na autopercepção de saúde mental. Quase 30% dos entrevistados indicaram que a pandemia da COVID-19 alterou sua autopercepção de saúde mental. Esse desfecho estava associado a fatores políticos, sociodemográficos e de risco à saúde. Estes achados devem ajudar os formuladores de políticas a desenvolver intervenções comunitárias pós-pandemia.

Assessing pandemic preparedness, response, and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic in four south American countries: agenda for the future.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic emerged in a context that lacked adequate prevention, preparedness, and response (PPR) activities, and global, regional, and national leadership. South American countries were among world's hardest hit by the pandemic, accounting for 10.1% of total cases and 20.1% of global deaths. Methods: This study explores how pandemic PPR were affected by political, socioeconomic, and health system contexts as well as how PPR may have shaped pandemic outcomes in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. We then identify lessons learned and advance an agenda for improving PPR capacity at regional and national levels. We do this through a mixed-methods sequential explanatory study in four South American countries based on structured interviews and focus groups with elite policy makers. Results: The results of our study demonstrate that structural and contextual barriers limited PPR activities at political, social, and economic levels in each country, as well as through the structure of the health care system. Respondents believe that top-level government officials had insufficient political will for prioritizing pandemic PPR and post-COVID-19 recovery programs within their countries' health agendas. Discussion: We recommend a regional COVID-19 task force, post-pandemic recovery, social and economic protection for vulnerable groups, improved primary health care and surveillance systems, risk communication strategies, and community engagement to place pandemic PPR on Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru and other South American countries' national public health agendas.

Burden of respiratory failure in pediatric patients: Analysis of a prospective multicenter cohort in Bogotá, Colombia.

Background and Aims: The approach to the burden of disease is a demographic, economic, and a health problem, which requires the design and application of specific measures of cost of the disease, such as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), to establish better public health policies in the pediatric population. The aim of this study is to approach the burden of disease in children with acute respiratory failure (ARF) through the calculation of DALYs. Methods: This study was conducted in the framework of a prospective, multicenter cohort in Bogotá, Colombia. Inclusion criteria were all pediatric patients admitted to the emergency department, hospitalization, and intensive care unit with respiratory distress; eligible patients were all those who developed ARF between April 2020 and December 2021. They were followed-up during hospitalization, at 30 and 60 days after admission. The Infant/Toddler Quality of Life Questionnaire and KIDSCREEN quality of life scales were applied for follow-up according to the age group. The results were used to calculate DALYs. Results: Six hundred and eighty-five eligible patients, 296 (43.08%) developed ARF, of these 22 (6.08%) patients died (mortality rate = 7.43%). The total DALYs was 277.164 years. For younger than 9 years, the DALYs were 302.64 years, while for older than 10 years were 40.49 years. Conclusion: ARF is one of the main causes of preventable mortality in pediatrics, its progression to respiratory failure is a highly prevalent condition in pediatric age, a condition that has a great impact on mortality, morbidity, and disability in our patients.

Shaping Policy and Practice: Analyzing the Reach of Highly Cited and High Altmetrics Publications for Broader Impact on Physical Activity.

BACKGROUND: A significant gap remains between the availability of physical activity (PA) evidence-based interventions and their application in real-world settings in policy and practice areas. This study aims to describe highly cited and high altmetrics publications in PA research and explore their impact on PA policy and practice. METHODS: Mixed-methods sequential explanatory study including the identification and description of the top highly cited and high altmetrics PA publications from the last 10 years (including study design, population, type of PA study, number of citations, and altmetrics score), and interviews with key informants regarding research dissemination and implications on PA policy and practice. RESULTS: When considering publication type, the most frequent highly cited publications were health consequences (40%, altmetrics = 42%), measurement/trends (23%, altmetrics = 10%), and correlates/determinants (21%, altmetrics = 26%) studies. They were predominantly cross-sectional (50%, altmetrics = 28%), systematic reviews (38%, altmetrics = 18%), and longitudinal studies (8%, altmetrics = 37%). All authors who participated in the interviews agreed that the most important factors in disseminating findings and influencing PA policy and practice were the published peer-reviewed manuscript itself, the reputation of the journal, the communication strategy, and the use of online platforms. CONCLUSIONS: To have a real-world influence on PA policy and practice, it is not enough to publish the results in scientific journals and participate in media outreach. To successfully involve policymakers and communities in appropriating the evidence and evaluating the extent to which these findings affect policy and practice outcomes, it is critical to lead co-creation, co-dissemination, advocacy, and capacity building efforts.

Status and Trends of Physical Activity Surveillance, Policy, and Research in 164 Countries: Findings From the Global Observatory for Physical Activity-GoPA! 2015 and 2020 Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) surveillance, policy, and research efforts need to be periodically appraised to gain insight into national and global capacities for PA promotion. The aim of this paper was to assess the status and trends in PA surveillance, policy, and research in 164 countries. METHODS: We used data from the Global Observatory for Physical Activity (GoPA!) 2015 and 2020 surveys. Comprehensive searches were performed for each country to determine the level of development of their PA surveillance, policy, and research, and the findings were verified by the GoPA! Country Contacts. Trends were analyzed based on the data available for both survey years. RESULTS: The global 5-year progress in all 3 indicators was modest, with most countries either improving or staying at the same level. PA surveillance, policy, and research improved or remained at a high level in 48.1%, 40.6%, and 42.1% of the countries, respectively. PA surveillance, policy, and research scores decreased or remained at a low level in 8.3%, 15.8%, and 28.6% of the countries, respectively. The highest capacity for PA promotion was found in Europe, the lowest in Africa and low- and lower-middle-income countries. Although a large percentage of the world's population benefit from at least some PA policy, surveillance, and research efforts in their countries, 49.6 million people are without PA surveillance, 629.4 million people are without PA policy, and 108.7 million live in countries without any PA research output. A total of 6.3 billion people or 88.2% of the world's population live in countries where PA promotion capacity should be significantly improved. CONCLUSION: Despite PA is essential for health, there are large inequalities between countries and world regions in their capacity to promote PA. Coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the inequalities and improve the global capacity for PA promotion.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close contacts of adults at high risk of infection due to occupation: results from the contact tracing strategy of the CoVIDA epidemiological surveillance study in Bogotá, Colombia, in 2020-2021.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close contacts of adults at high risk of infection due to occupation, participants of the CoVIDA study, in Bogotá D.C., Colombia. SETTING: The CoVIDA study was the largest COVID-19 intensified sentinel epidemiological surveillance study in Colombia thus far, performing over 60 000 RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study implemented a contact tracing strategy (via telephone call) to support traditional surveillance actions performed by the local health authority. PARTICIPANTS: Close contacts of participants from the CoVIDA study. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: SARS-CoV-2 testing results were obtained (RT-PCR with CoVIDA or self-reported results). The secondary attack rate (SAR) was calculated using contacts and primary cases features. RESULTS: The CoVIDA study performed 1257 contact tracing procedures on primary cases. A total of 5551 close contacts were identified and 1050 secondary cases (21.1%) were found. The highest SAR was found in close contacts: (1) who were spouses (SAR=32.7%; 95% CI 29.1% to 36.4%), (2) of informally employed or unemployed primary cases (SAR=29.1%; 95% CI 25.5% to 32.8%), (3) of symptomatic primary cases (SAR of 25.9%; 95% CI 24.0% to 27.9%) and (4) living in households with more than three people (SAR=22.2%; 95% CI 20.7% to 23.8%). The spouses (OR 3.85; 95% CI 2.60 to 5.70), relatives (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.33 to 2.70) and close contacts of a symptomatic primary case (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.77) had an increased risk of being secondary cases compared with non-relatives and close contacts of an asymptomatic index case, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Contact tracing strategies must focus on households with socioeconomic vulnerabilities to guarantee isolation and testing to stop the spread of the disease.

Social Capital and Lifestyle Impacts on Mental Health in University Students in Colombia: An Observational Study.

Introduction: For young adults, the first year of higher education represents a transition period into adulthood associated with an increased risk of developing depression, anxiety, and stress, contributing to deteriorating physical and mental health. The present study aimed to analyze the relationship between depressive symptoms and social capital and lifestyles among Colombian university students. Methods: In 2020, a longitudinal repeated measures study was conducted on first year students at Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia. The study was conceptualized and approved by the university before the COVID-19 pandemic appeared. Each student completed a self-administered questionnaire including questions on sociodemographic characteristics, depressive symptoms, perceived stress, social capital, and lifestyles. The study's pilot was conducted in November 2019, and the two measurement points were in January 2020 (wave 1, before the COVID-19 pandemic was declared) and in August 2020 (wave 2, during the COVID-19 pandemic). A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between depressive symptoms, perceived stress, social capital, and lifestyles. Findings: A total of 609 first year students (response rate = 58.11%) participated in wave 1, and 42% of the participants showed signs of clinically relevant depressive symptoms. In wave 2, despite the difficulties encountered in collecting data due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 216 students from wave 1 participated (35.47%). An increase in a sedentary lifestyle was observed (31.49%). We found that cognitive and behavioral social capital levels decreased by 12.03 and 24.54%, respectively. In addition, we observed a 6.5% increase in students with clinically relevant depressive symptoms compared to wave 1. A low level of behavioral [OR: 1.88; 95% CI (1.16, 3.04)] social capital was associated with clinically relevant depressive symptoms. Conclusion: The health of university students continues to be a public health concern. The study suggests that social capital may play an important role in preventing depressive symptoms. Therefore, universities should put effort into programs that bring students together and promote the creation of social capital.

Understanding how socioeconomic inequalities drive inequalities in COVID-19 infections.

Across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected economically disadvantaged groups. This differential impact has numerous possible explanations, each with significantly different policy implications. We examine, for the first time in a low- or middle-income country, which mechanisms best explain the disproportionate impact of the virus on the poor. Combining an epidemiological model with rich data from Bogotá, Colombia, we show that total infections and inequalities in infections are largely driven by inequalities in the ability to work remotely and in within-home secondary attack rates. Inequalities in isolation behavior are less important but non-negligible, while access to testing and contract-tracing plays practically no role because it is too slow to contain the virus. Interventions that mitigate transmission are often more effective when targeted on socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.

Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a Symptoms-Based model to aid public health decision making in Latin America and other low and middle income settings.

Symptoms-based models for predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection may improve clinical decision-making and be an alternative to resource allocation in under-resourced settings. In this study we aimed to test a model based on symptoms to predict a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic using logistic regression and a machine-learning approach, in Bogotá, Colombia. Participants from the CoVIDA project were included. A logistic regression using the model was chosen based on biological plausibility and the Akaike Information criterion. Also, we performed an analysis using machine learning with random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting. The study included 58,577 participants with a positivity rate of 5.7%. The logistic regression showed that anosmia (aOR = 7.76, 95% CI [6.19, 9.73]), fever (aOR = 4.29, 95% CI [3.07, 6.02]), headache (aOR = 3.29, 95% CI [1.78, 6.07]), dry cough (aOR = 2.96, 95% CI [2.44, 3.58]), and fatigue (aOR = 1.93, 95% CI [1.57, 2.93]) were independently associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our final model had an area under the curve of 0.73. The symptoms-based model correctly identified over 85% of participants. This model can be used to prioritize resource allocation related to COVID-19 diagnosis, to decide on early isolation, and contact-tracing strategies in individuals with a high probability of infection before receiving a confirmatory test result. This strategy has public health and clinical decision-making significance in low- and middle-income settings like Latin America.