Do agri-food market incentives improve food security and nutrition indicators? a microsimulation evaluation for Kenya.

The sustainable development goal #2 aims at ending hunger and malnutrition by 2030. Given the numbers of food insecure and malnourished people on the rise, the heterogeneity of nutritional statuses and needs, and the even worse context of COVID-19 pandemic, this has become an urgent challenge for food-related policies. This paper provides a comprehensive microsimulation approach to evaluate economic policies on food access, sufficiency (energy) and adequacy (protein, fat, carbohydrate) at household level. The improvement in market access conditions in Kenya is simulated as an application case of this method, using original insights from households' surveys and biochemical and nutritional information by food item. Simulation's results suggest that improving market access increases food purchasing power overall the country, with a pro-poor impact in rural areas. The daily energy consumption per capita and macronutrients intakes per capita increase at the national level, being the households with at least one stunted child under 5 years old, and poor households living areas outside Mombasa and Nairobi, those which benefit the most. The developed method and its Kenya's application contribute to the discussion on how to evaluate nutrition-sensitive policies, and how to cover most households suffering food insecurity and nutrition deficiencies in any given country. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-021-01215-2.

Raw versus cooked food matching: Nutrient intake using the 2015/16 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey.

In many countries, statistics from household consumption and expenditure surveys are increasingly being used to inform policies and programs. In household surveys, foods are typically reported as they are acquired (the majority are raw). However, the micronutrient content of some foods diminishes during processing and cooking. Using food consumption data from the 2015/16 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey, this study analyzes whether mean consumption estimates of dietary energy, macronutrients, and eight micronutrients are equivalent (applying a two-side paired equivalence test) when matching foods: (1) considering the nutrient content in raw foods (as reported in the survey), and (2) considering the nutrient content in foods as typically consumed, thus applying yield and retention factors as needed. Both food matching approaches rendered statistically equivalent mean consumption estimates, at national and county levels, for dietary energy, protein, fats, available carbohydrates, total fiber, calcium and zinc. Non-equivalent means were found for iron, vitamins A, B1, B2, B12, and C. The higher differences between the means were, in percentage change, for vitamin C (47 %), B1 (34 %) and B12 (26 %).

Food security and welfare changes under COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts and responses in Kenya.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all Sub-Saharan economies through a multitude of impact channels. The study determines the medium-term macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic on the Kenyan economy and links the results with a detailed food security and nutrition microsimulation module. It thus evaluates the effectiveness of the adopted government measures to reduce the negative outcomes on food security and to enable economic recovery at aggregate, sectoral and household levels. Through income support measures, the food sector and food demand partially recover. However, 1.3% of households still fall below calorie intake thresholds, many of which are in rural areas. Results also indicate that the state of food security in Kenya remains vulnerable to the evolution of the pandemic abroad.