The relationship between anti-LGBTQ+ legislation and HIV prevention among sexual and gender minoritized youth.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the longitudinal associations of state-level anti-LGBTQ+ policies and county-level politics with individual HIV prevention outcomes among sexual and gender minoritized (SGM) youth. DESIGN: Keeping it LITE-1 prospectively enrolled 3,330 SGM youth and young adults (ages 13-34) at increased risk of HIV throughout the United States from 2017-2022. METHODS: Semiannual surveys collected self-reported HIV prevention measures (current PrEP use, weekly PrEP adherence, HIV/STI testing in the past 6 months). Geolocation was linked with state-level LGBTQ+ policy data and county-level election data. Generalized linear models with GEE estimated the single and joint longitudinal associations for 2 exposures [state-level policy climate (more discriminatory vs. less discriminatory) and county-level political majority (Democratic/swing vs. Republican)] with each outcome. RESULTS: Among participants living in a state with more discriminatory laws, those in a Democratic/swing county had a 6-percentage point increase in PrEP use (95% CI: 0.02, 0.09) compared to those in a Republican county. Those living in a Republican county but a state with less discriminatory laws saw a similar increase (0.05; -0.02,0.11). Residing in both a Democratic/swing county and a state with less discriminatory laws, relative to a Republican county and a state with more discriminatory laws, was associated with a 10-percentage point increase in PrEP use (0.10; 0.06,0.14) and a 5-percentage point increase in HIV/STI testing (0.05; 0.00,0.09). CONCLUSIONS: More progressive state and local policies were each associated with increased PrEP use, and together, doubled the magnitude of this association. PrEP is underutilized among SGM youth, and anti-LGBTQ+ policies may exacerbate this gap in coverage.

Symptom Exacerbation and Adverse Events during a Randomized Trial of Early-stage Concussion Rehabilitation.

CONTEXT: Few studies utilize randomized clinical trials (RCT) to quantify clinical intervention safety of rehabilitation after sport-related concussion across sport levels. OBJECTIVE: Describe symptom exacerbation and adverse events (AEs) associated with two concussion rehabilitation interventions. DESIGN: Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial (XXX). SETTING: Sports medicine clinic and field settings. PARTICIPANTS: The RCT enrolled 251 concussed athletes (median age=20 years; female n=48) across 28 sites from New Zealand professional rugby (n=31), Canadian professional football (n=52), United States (U.S.)/Canadian colleges (n=128) and U.S. high schools (n=40). INTERVENTIONS: Two medically supervised interventions: 1) Enhanced Graded Exertion (EGE): international return to sport strategy and sport specific activities only (EGE-only n=119) and 2) Multidimensional Rehabilitation (MDR) followed by EGE: early symptom-directed exercises once symptoms were stable, followed by EGE after symptoms resolved (MDR+EGE n=132). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were intrasession total symptom severity score exacerbation and significant intersession (increase 10+ severity points) sustained total symptom severity exacerbation, each measured with a Postconcussion Symptom Scale (132 total severity points on scale). Reported AEs were also described. Activity-based rehabilitation sessions (n=1437) were the primary analysis unit. Frequencies, proportions, medians, and Interquartile Ranges (IQRs) were calculated for outcomes by treatment group. RESULTS: The 251 post-injury participants completed 1437 (MDR+EGE=819, EGE-only=618) activity-based intervention sessions. A total of 110 and 105 participants contributed data (those missing had no documented session data) to at least 1 activity-based session in the MDR+EGE and EGE-only arms respectively. Intrasession symptom exacerbations were equivilantly low in MDR+EGE and EGE-only arms (MDR+EGE: 16.7%, 95% CI:14.1%,19.1%; EGE-only: 15.7%, 95% CI: 12.8%,18.6%). In total, 9/819 MDR+EGE sessions (0.9%) and 1/618 EGE-only sessions (0.2%) resulted in a pre- to post-session symptom exacerbation beyond a 10+ severity point increase; 8/9 resolved to <10 points by the next session. Two study-related AEs (1 in each arm) were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Participants in MDR+EGE and EGE-only activities reported equivalently low rates of symptom exacerbation.

Matching study design to prescribing intention: The prevalent new-user design for studying abuse-deterrent formulations of opioids.

PURPOSE: In drug studies, research designs requiring no prior exposure to certain drug classes may restrict important populations. Since abuse-deterrent formulations (ADF) of opioids are routinely prescribed after other opioids, choice of study design, identification of appropriate comparators, and addressing confounding by "indication" are important considerations in ADF post-marketing studies. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study using claims data (2006-2018) from a North Carolina private insurer [NC claims] and Merative MarketScan [MarketScan], we identified patients (18-64 years old) initiating ADF or non-ADF extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioids. We compared patient characteristics and described opioid treatment history between treatment groups, classifying patients as traditional (no opioid claims during prior six-month washout period) or prevalent new users. RESULTS: We identified 8415 (NC claims) and 147 978 (MarketScan) ADF, and 10 114 (NC claims) and 232 028 (MarketScan) non-ADF ER/LA opioid initiators. Most had prior opioid exposure (ranging 64%-74%), and key clinical differences included higher prevalence of recent acute or chronic pain and surgery among patients initiating ADFs compared to non-ADF ER/LA initiators. Concurrent immediate-release opioid prescriptions at initiation were more common in prevalent new users than traditional new users. CONCLUSIONS: Careful consideration of the study design, comparator choice, and confounding by "indication" is crucial when examining ADF opioid use-related outcomes.

Forty years of struggle in North Carolina: Workplace segregation and fatal occupational injury rates.

OBJECTIVE: To assess workplace segregation in fatal occupational injury from 1992 to 2017 in North Carolina. METHODS: We calculated occupational fatal injury rates within categories of occupation, industry, race, age, and sex; and estimated expected numbers of fatalities among Black and Hispanic male workers had they experienced the rates of White male workers. We also estimated the contribution of workforce segregation to disparities by estimating the expected number of fatalities among Black and Hispanic male workers had they experienced the industry and occupation patterns of White male workers. We assessed person-years of life-lost, using North Carolina life expectancy estimates. RESULTS: Hispanic workers contributed 32% of their worker-years and experienced 58% of their fatalities in construction. Black workers were most overrepresented in the food manufacturing industry. Hispanic males experienced 2.11 (95% CI: 1.86-2.40) times the mortality rate of White males. The Black-White and Hispanic-White disparities were widest among workers aged 45 and older, and segregation into more dangerous industries and occupations played a substantial role in driving disparities. Hispanic workers who suffered occupational fatalities lost a median 47 life-years, compared to 37 among Black workers and 36 among White workers. CONCLUSIONS: If Hispanic and Black workers experienced the workplace safety of their White counterparts, fatal injury rates would be substantially reduced. Workforce segregation reflects structural racism, which also contributes to mortality disparities. Root causes must be addressed to eliminate disparities.

Heat-related fatalities in North Carolina 1999-2017.

OBJECTIVES: Research shows the highest rates of occupational heat-related fatalities among farm laborers and among Black and Hispanic workers in North Carolina (NC). The Hispanic population and workforce in NC have grown substantially in the past 20 years. We describe the epidemiology of heat-related fatal injuries in the general population and among workers in NC. METHODS: We reviewed North Carolina death records and records of the North Carolina Office of the Chief Medical Examiner to identify heat-related deaths (primary International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision diagnosis code: X30 or T67.0-T67.9) that occurred between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2017. Decedent age, sex, race, and ethnicity were extracted from both the death certificate and the medical examiner's report as well as determinations of whether the death occurred at work. RESULTS: In NC between 1999 and 2017, there were 225 deaths from heat-related injuries, and 25 occurred at work. The rates of occupational heat-related deaths were highest among males, workers of Hispanic ethnicity, workers of Black, multiple, or unknown race, and in workers aged 55-64. The highest rate of occupational heat-related deaths occurred in the agricultural industry. CONCLUSIONS: Since the last report (2001), the number of heat-related fatalities has increased, but fewer were identified as workplace fatalities. Rates of occupational heat-related deaths are highest among Hispanic workers. NC residents identifying as Black are disproportionately burdened by heat-related fatalities in general, with a wider apparent disparity in occupational deaths.

25-Year fatal workplace suicide trends in North Carolina: 1992-2017.

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a serious public health problem in the United States, but limited evidence is available investigating fatal suicides at work. There is a substantial need to characterize workplace suicides to inform suicide prevention interventions and target high-risk settings. This study aims to examine workplace suicide rates in North Carolina (NC) by worker characteristics, means of suicide used, and industry between 1992 and 2017. METHODS: Fatal workplace suicides were identified from records of the NC Office of the Chief Medical Examiner system and the NC death certificate. Sex, age, race, ethnicity, class of worker, manner of death, and industry were abstracted. Crude and age-standardized homicide rates were calculated as the number of suicides that occurred at work divided by an estimate of worker-years (w-y). Rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and trends over calendar time for fatal workplace suicides were examined overall and by industry. RESULTS: 81 suicides over 109,464,430 w-y were observed. Increased rates were observed in workers who were male, self-employed, and 65+ years old. Firearms were the most common means of death (63%) followed by hanging (16%). Gas service station workers experienced the highest fatal occupational suicide rate, 11.5 times (95% CI: 3.62-36.33) the overall fatal workplace suicide rate, followed by Justice, Public Order, and Safety workers at 3.23 times the overall rate (95% CI: 1.31-7.97). CONCLUSION: Our findings identify industries and worker demographics that were vulnerable to workplace suicides. Targeted and tailored mitigation strategies for vulnerable industries and workers are recommended.

Forty-year trends in fatal occupational injuries in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: We describe progress in the control of deaths on-the-job due to fatal occupational injury in North Carolina over the period 1978-2017. METHODS: Forty years of information on fatal occupational injuries in North Carolina has been assembled from medical examiners' reports and death certificates, supplemented by newspaper and police reports. Cases were defined as unintentional fatal occupational injuries among adults. Annual estimates of the population at risk were derived from US Census data, and rates were quantified using Poisson regression methods. RESULTS: There were 4434 eligible deaths. The unintentional fatal occupational injury rate at the beginning of the study period was more than threefold the rate at the end of the study. The fatal occupational injury rate among men declined from 9.6 per 100,000 worker-years in the period 1978-1982 to 3.1 per 100,000 worker-years in the period 2013-2017. The fatal occupational injury rate among women declined from 0.3 per 100,000 worker-years in the period 1978-1981 to 0.1 per 100,000 worker-years in the period 2013-2017. Declines in rates were observed for young adults as well as older workers and were observed across all major industry categories. Average annual declines in rates were greatest in those industries and occupations that had the highest fatal injury rates at the start of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial decline in fatal injury rates underscores the importance of injury prevention and demonstrates the ability to make meaningful reductions in unintentional fatal injury.

Suicide Mortality Among Formerly Incarcerated People Compared With the General Population in North Carolina, 2000-2020.

We aimed to compare rates and characteristics of suicide mortality in formerly incarcerated people with those of the general population in North Carolina. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 266,400 people released from North Carolina state prisons between January 1, 2000, and March 1, 2020. Using direct and indirect standardization by age, sex, and calendar year, we calculated standardized suicide mortality rates and standardized mortality ratios comparing formerly incarcerated people with the North Carolina general population. We evaluated effect modification by race/ethnicity, sex, age, and firearm involvement. Formerly incarcerated people had approximately twice the overall suicide mortality of the general population for 3 years after release, with the highest rate of suicide mortality being observed in the 2-week period after release. In contrast to patterns in the general population, formerly incarcerated people had higher rates of non-firearm-involved suicide mortality than firearm-involved suicide mortality. Formerly incarcerated female, White and Hispanic/Latino, and emerging adult people had a greater elevation of suicide mortality than their general-population peers compared with other groups. These findings suggest a need for long-term support for formerly incarcerated people as they return to community living and a need to identify opportunities for interventions that reduce the harms of incarceration for especially vulnerable groups. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Fatal occupational injuries in North Carolina, 1992-2017.

OBJECTIVES: After declining for several decades, fatal occupational injury rates have stagnated in the USA since 2009. To revive advancements in workplace safety, interventions targeting at-risk worker groups must be implemented. Our study aims to identify these at-risk populations by evaluating disparities in unintentional occupational fatalities occurring in North Carolina (NC) from 1992 to 2017. METHODS: Our retrospective cohort study drew on both the NC Office of the Chief Medical Examiner system and the NC death certificate data system to identify unintentional fatal occupational injuries occurring from 1992 to 2017. Unintentional fatal occupational injury rates were reported across industries, occupations and demographic groups, and rate ratios were calculated to assess disparities. RESULTS: Among those aged 18 and older, 2645 unintentional fatal occupational injuries were identified. Fatal occupational injury rates declined by 0.82 injuries/100 000 person-years over this period, falling consistently from 2004 to 2009 and increasing from 2009 to 2017. Fatal injury rates were highest among Hispanic workers, who experienced 2.75 times the fatal injury rate of non-Hispanic White workers (95% CI 2.42 to 3.11) and self-employed workers, who experienced 1.44 times the fatal injury rate of private workers (95% CI 1.29 to 1.60). We also observed that fatal injury rates increased with age group and were higher among male relative to female workers even after adjustment for differential distributions across occupations. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in unintentional fatal occupational injury rates over this period is encouraging, but the increase in injury rate after 2009 and the large disparities between occupations, industries and demographic groups highlight the need for additional targeted safety interventions.

"We adjusted for race": now what? A systematic review of utilization and reporting of race in American Journal of Epidemiology and Epidemiology, 2020-2021.

Race is a social construct, commonly used in epidemiologic research to adjust for confounding. However, adjustment of race may mask racial disparities, thereby perpetuating structural racism. We conducted a systematic review of articles published in Epidemiology and American Journal of Epidemiology between 2020 and 2021 to (1) understand how race, ethnicity, and similar social constructs were operationalized, used, and reported; and (2) characterize good and poor practices of utilization and reporting of race data on the basis of the extent to which they reveal or mask systemic racism. Original research articles were considered for full review and data extraction if race data were used in the study analysis. We extracted how race was categorized, used-as a descriptor, confounder, or for effect measure modification (EMM)-and reported if the authors discussed racial disparities and systemic bias-related mechanisms responsible for perpetuating the disparities. Of the 561 articles, 299 had race data available and 192 (34.2%) used race data in analyses. Among the 160 US-based studies, 81 different racial categorizations were used. Race was most often used as a confounder (52%), followed by effect measure modifier (33%), and descriptive variable (12%). Fewer than 1 in 4 articles (22.9%) exhibited good practices (EMM along with discussing disparities and mechanisms), 63.5% of the articles exhibited poor practices (confounding only or not discussing mechanisms), and 13.5% were considered neither poor nor good practices. We discuss implications and provide 13 recommendations for operationalization, utilization, and reporting of race in epidemiologic and public health research.

Disparities in Fatal Occupational Injury Rates in North Carolina, 1978-2017: Comparing Nonmanagerial Employees to Managers.

BACKGROUND: We examined fatal occupational injuries among private-sector workers in North Carolina during the 40-year period 1978-2017, comparing the occurrence of fatal injuries among nonmanagerial employees to that experienced by managers. METHODS: We estimated a standardized fatal occupational injury ratio by inverse probability of exposure weighting, taking nonmanagerial workers as the target population. When this ratio measure takes a value greater than unity it signals settings in which nonmanagerial employees are not provided as safe a work environment as that provided for managers. RESULTS: Across all industries, nonmanagerial workers in North Carolina experienced fatal occupational injury rates 8.2 (95% CI = 7.0, 10.0) times the rate experienced by managers. Disparities in fatal injury rates between managers and the employees they supervise were greatest in forestry, rubber and metal manufacturing, wholesale trade, fishing and extractive industries, and construction. CONCLUSIONS: The results may help focus discussion about workplace safety between labor and management upon equity, with a goal of providing a work environment for nonmanagerial employees as safe as the one provided for managers.

Immigration Policy and the Health of Latina Mothers and Their Infants.

Restrictive immigration policies may adversely affect the health of Latina mothers and their infants. We hypothesized that undocumented Latina mothers and their US born children would have worse birth outcomes and healthcare utilization following the November 2016 election. We used a controlled interrupted time series to estimate the impact of the 2016 presidential election on low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth, maternal depression, well child visit attendance, cancelled visits, and emergency department (ED) visits among infants born to Latina mothers on emergency Medicaid, a proxy for undocumented immigration status. There was a 5.8% (95% CI: -0.99%, 12.5%) increase in LBW and 4.6% (95% CI: -1.8%, 10.9%) increase in preterm births immediately after the 2016 election compared to controls. While these findings were not statistically significant at p < 0.05, the majority of our data suggest worsened birth outcomes among undocumented Latina mothers after the election, consistent with larger prior studies. There was no difference in well child or ED visits. While restrictive policies may have contributed to worse birth outcomes among undocumented Latina mothers, our findings suggest that Latino families still attend infants' scheduled visits.

Intended and unintended consequences: Changes in opioid prescribing practices for postsurgical, acute, and chronic pain indications following two policies in North Carolina, 2012-2018 - Controlled and single-series interrupted time series analyses.

BACKGROUND: The potential misapplication of current opioid prescribing policies remains understudied and may have substantial adverse implications for patient safety. METHODS: We used autoregressive integrated moving average models to assess level and trend changes in monthly 1) prescribing rates, 2) days' supply, and 3) daily morphine milligram equivalents (MME) of incident opioid prescriptions relative to 1) a state medical board initiative to reduce high-dose and -volume opioid prescribing and 2) legislation to limit initial opioid prescriptions for acute and postsurgical pain. We examined outcomes by pain indication overall and by cancer history, using prescribing patterns for benzodiazepines to control for temporal trends. We used large private health insurance claims data to include North Carolina residents, aged 18-64, insured at any point between January 2012 and August 2018. RESULTS: After the medical board initiative, prescribing patterns for chronic pain patients did not change; conversely, acute and postsurgical pain patients experienced immediate declines in daily MME. Post-legislation prescription rates did not decline for those with acute, postsurgical, and non-cancer pain, but instead declined among cancer patients with chronic pain. Chronic pain patients experienced the largest days' supply declines post-legislation, instead of acute and postsurgical pain patients. CONCLUSIONS: We found mixed evidence on the potential impact of two opioid prescribing policies, with some observed declines in a group not intended to be impacted by the policy. This study provides evidence of the need for clearer opioid prescribing policies to ensure impacts on intended populations and avoid unintended consequences.

Development and validation of an electronic health records-based opioid use disorder algorithm by expert clinical adjudication among patients with prescribed opioids.

BACKGROUND: In the US, over 200 lives are lost from opioid overdoses each day. Accurate and prompt diagnosis of opioid use disorders (OUD) may help prevent overdose deaths. However, international classification of disease (ICD) codes for OUD are known to underestimate prevalence, and their specificity and sensitivity are unknown. We developed and validated algorithms to identify OUD in electronic health records (EHR) and examined the validity of OUD ICD codes. METHODS: Through four iterations, we developed EHR-based OUD identification algorithms among patients who were prescribed opioids from 2014 to 2017. The algorithms and OUD ICD codes were validated against 169 independent "gold standard" EHR chart reviews conducted by an expert adjudication panel across four healthcare systems. After using 2014-2020 EHR for validating iteration 1, the experts were advised to use 2014-2017 EHR thereafter. RESULTS: Of the 169 EHR charts, 81 (48%) were reviewed by more than one expert and exhibited 85% expert agreement. The experts identified 54 OUD cases. The experts endorsed all 11 OUD criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5, including craving (72%), tolerance (65%), withdrawal (56%), and recurrent use in physically hazardous conditions (50%). The OUD ICD codes had 10% sensitivity and 99% specificity, underscoring large underestimation. In comparison our algorithm identified OUD with 23% sensitivity and 98% specificity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This is the first study to estimate the validity of OUD ICD codes and develop validated EHR-based OUD identification algorithms. This work will inform future research on early intervention and prevention of OUD.

"Cookbook medicine": Exploring the impact of opioid prescribing limits legislation on clinical practice and patient experiences.

Opioid dependence and overdose are serious public health concerns. States have responded by enacting legislation regulating opioid-prescribing practices. Through in-depth interviews with clinicians, state officials, and organizational stakeholders, this paper examines opioid prescribing limits legislation (PLL) in North Carolina and how it impacts clinical practice. Since the advent of PLL, clinicians report being more mindful when prescribing opioids and as expected, writing for shorter durations for both acute and postoperative pain. But clinicians also report prescribing opioids less frequently for acute pain, refusing to write second opioid prescriptions, foisting responsibility for patient pain care onto other clinicians, and no longer writing opioid prescriptions for chronic pain patients. They directly credit PLL for these changes, including institutional policies enacted in response to PLL, and, to a lesser degree, notions of "do no harm." However, we argue that misapplication of and ambiguities in PLL along with defensive medicine practices whereby clinicians and their institutions center their legal interests over patient care, amplify these restrictive changes in clinical practice. Clinicians' narratives reveal downstream consequences for patients including undertreated pain, being viewed as drug-seeking when questioning opioid-prescribing decisions, and having to overuse the medical system to achieve pain relief.

Trajectories and correlates of opioid prescription receipt among patients experiencing interpersonal violence.

Interpersonal violence increases vulnerability to the deleterious effects of opioid use. Increased opioid prescription receipt is a major contributor to the opioid crisis; however, our understanding of prescription patterns and risk factors among those with a history of interpersonal violence remains elusive. This study sought to identify 5-year longitudinal patterns of opioid prescription receipt among patients experiencing interpersonal violence within a large healthcare system and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with prescription patterns. This secondary analysis examined electronic health record data from January 2004-August 2019 for a cohort of patients (N = 1,587) referred for interpersonal violence services. Latent class growth analysis was used to estimate trajectories of opioid prescription receipt over a 5-year period. Standardized differences were calculated to assess variation in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics between classes. Our cohort had a high prevalence of prescription opioid receipt (73.3%) and underlying co-morbidities, including chronic pain (54.6%), substance use disorders (39.0%), and mental health diagnoses (76.9%). Six prescription opioid receipt classes emerged, characterized by probability of any prescription opioid receipt at the start and end of the study period (high, medium, low, never) and change in probability over time (increasing, decreasing, stable). Classes with the highest probability of prescription opioids also had the highest proportions of males, chronic pain diagnoses, substance use disorders, and mental health diagnoses. Black, non-Hispanic and Hispanic patients were more likely to be in low or no prescription opioid receipt classes. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring for synergistic co-morbidities when providing pain management and offering treatment that is trauma-informed, destigmatizing, and integrated into routine care.

Innovations in suicide prevention research (INSPIRE): a protocol for a population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Suicide deaths have been increasing for the past 20 years in the USA resulting in 45 979 deaths in 2020, a 29% increase since 1999. Lack of data linkage between entities with potential to implement large suicide prevention initiatives (health insurers, health institutions and corrections) is a barrier to developing an integrated framework for suicide prevention. OBJECTIVES: Data linkage between death records and several large administrative datasets to (1) estimate associations between risk factors and suicide outcomes, (2) develop predictive algorithms and (3) establish long-term data linkage workflow to ensure ongoing suicide surveillance. METHODS: We will combine six data sources from North Carolina, the 10th most populous state in the USA, from 2006 onward, including death certificate records, violent deaths reporting system, large private health insurance claims data, Medicaid claims data, University of North Carolina electronic health records and data on justice involved individuals released from incarceration. We will determine the incidence of death from suicide, suicide attempts and ideation in the four subpopulations to establish benchmarks. We will use a nested case-control design with incidence density-matched population-based controls to (1) identify short-term and long-term risk factors associated with suicide attempts and mortality and (2) develop machine learning-based predictive algorithms to identify individuals at risk of suicide deaths. DISCUSSION: We will address gaps from prior studies by establishing an in-depth linked suicide surveillance system integrating multiple large, comprehensive databases that permit establishment of benchmarks, identification of predictors, evaluation of prevention efforts and establishment of long-term surveillance workflow protocols.

Z-Score Burden Metric: A Method for Assessing Burden of Injury and Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Traditional methods of summarizing burden of disease have limitations in terms of identifying communities within a population that are in need of prevention and intervention resources. This paper proposes a new method of burden assessment for use in guiding these decisions. METHODS: This new method for assessing burden utilizes the sum of population-weighted age-specific z-scores. This new Z-Score Burden Metric was applied to firearm-related deaths in North Carolina counties using 2010‒2017 North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System data. The Z-Score Burden Metric consists of 4 measures describing various aspects of burden. The Z-Score Burden Metric Overall Burden Measure was compared with 2 traditional measures (unadjusted and age-adjusted death rates) for each county to assess similarities and differences in the relative burden of firearm-related death. RESULTS: Of all 100 North Carolina counties, 73 met inclusion criteria (≥5 actual and expected deaths during the study period in each age strata). Ranking by the Overall Burden Measure produced an ordering of counties different from that of ranking by traditional measures. A total of 8 counties (11.0%) differed in burden rank by at least 10% when comparing the Overall Burden Measure with age-adjusted and unadjusted rates. All the counties with large differences between the measures were substantially burdened by firearm-related death. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the Z-Score Burden Metric provides an alternative way of measuring realized community burden of injury while still facilitating comparisons between communities with different age distributions. This method can be used for any injury or disease outcome and may help to prioritize the allocation of resources to communities suffering high burdens of injury and disease.

Association of Opioid Dose Reduction With Opioid Overdose and Opioid Use Disorder Among Patients Receiving High-Dose, Long-term Opioid Therapy in North Carolina.

Importance: Rapid reduction or discontinuation of long-term opioid therapy may increase risk of opioid overdose or opioid use disorder (OUD). Current guidelines for chronic pain management caution against rapid dose reduction but are based on limited evidence. Objective: To characterize the association between rapid reduction or abrupt discontinuation of opioid therapy (vs maintained or gradual reduction) and incidence of opioid overdose and OUD among patients prescribed high-dose, long-term opioid therapy (HDLTOT). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients aged 18 to 64 years who were prescribed HDLTOT (≥90 daily morphine milligram equivalents for ≥90% of 90 days) from January 2006 to September 2018, with follow-up up to 4 years after cohort entry. Claims data were drawn from a large private health insurer in North Carolina and analyzed from March 1, 2006, to September 30, 2018. Exposures: Time-varying exposure of rapid dose reduction or discontinuation (>10% dose reduction/week) vs maintenance, increase, or gradual reduction or discontinuation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was incident opioid overdose (fatal or nonfatal) or diagnosed OUD. Inverse probability-weighted cumulative incidence of outcomes were estimated using the cumulative incidence function and hazard ratios (HRs) using marginal structural Fine-Gray models as a function of rapid dose tapering or discontinuation (vs gradual reduction or discontinuation or maintained or increased), accounting for competing risks. Results: A total of 19 443 patients (median [IQR] age, 49 [41-55] years; 10 073 [51.8%] men) who received HDLTOT were identified. Rapid reduction or discontinuation was associated with higher risk of fatal and nonfatal overdoses compared with gradual reduction after the first year (year 1: HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.94-2.18; years 2-4: HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.31-2.90). There was no association between rapid reduction or discontinuation and diagnosed OUD through 2 years of follow-up; however, the hazard of incident OUD among patients exposed to rapid tapering or discontinuation was greater 25 to 48 months after the start of follow-up (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.63). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, rapid dose reduction or discontinuation was associated with increased risk of opioid overdose and OUD during long-term follow-up. These findings reinforce prior concerns about safety of rapid dose reductions for patients receiving HDLTOT and highlight the need for caution when reducing opioid doses.