Continued improvement in the development of the SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing proficiency testing program.

Application of whole genome sequencing (WGS) has allowed monitoring of the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally. Genomic investigation of emerging variants and surveillance of clinical progress has reduced the public health impact of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. These steps required developing and implementing a proficiency testing program (PTP), as WGS has been incorporated into routine reference laboratory practice. In this study, we describe how the PTP evaluated the capacity and capability of one New Zealand and 14 Australian public health laboratories to perform WGS of SARS-CoV-2 in 2022. The participants' performances in characterising a specimen panel of known SARS-CoV-2 isolates in the PTP were assessed based on: (1) genome coverage, (2) Pango lineage, and (3) sequence quality, with the choice of assessment metrics refined based on a previously reported assessment conducted in 2021. The participants' performances in 2021 and 2022 were also compared after reassessing the 2021 results using the more stringent metrics adopted in 2022. We found that more participants would have failed the 2021 assessment for all survey samples and a significantly higher fail rate per sample in 2021 compared to 2022. This study highlights the importance of choosing appropriate performance metrics to reflect better the laboratories' capacity to perform SARS-CoV-2 WGS, as was done in the 2022 PTP. It also displays the need for a PTP for WGS of SARS-CoV-2 to be available to public health laboratories ongoing, with continuous refinements in the design and provision of the PTP to account for the dynamic nature of the COVID-19 pandemic as SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) dysregulates neurodevelopmental pathways in cerebral organoids.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the leading non-genetic aetiology of congenital malformation in developed countries, causing significant fetal neurological injury. This study investigated potential CMV pathogenetic mechanisms of fetal neural malformation using in vitro human cerebral organoids. Cerebral organoids were permissive to CMV replication, and infection dysregulated cellular pluripotency and differentiation pathways. Aberrant expression of dual-specificity tyrosine phosphorylation-regulated kinases (DYRK), sonic hedgehog (SHH), pluripotency, neurodegeneration, axon guidance, hippo signalling and dopaminergic synapse pathways were observed in CMV-infected organoids using immunofluorescence and RNA-sequencing. Infection with CMV resulted in dysregulation of 236 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)-related genes (p = 1.57E-05) and pathways. This notable observation suggests potential links between congenital CMV infection and ASD. Using DisGeNET databases, 103 diseases related to neural malformation or mental disorders were enriched in CMV-infected organoids. Cytomegalovirus infection-related dysregulation of key cerebral cellular pathways potentially provides important, modifiable pathogenetic mechanisms for congenital CMV-induced neural malformation and ASD.

Artificial Intelligence to Automate Health Economic Modelling: A Case Study to Evaluate the Potential Application of Large Language Models.

BACKGROUND: Current generation large language models (LLMs) such as Generative Pre-Trained Transformer 4 (GPT-4) have achieved human-level performance on many tasks including the generation of computer code based on textual input. This study aimed to assess whether GPT-4 could be used to automatically programme two published health economic analyses. METHODS: The two analyses were partitioned survival models evaluating interventions in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We developed prompts which instructed GPT-4 to programme the NSCLC and RCC models in R, and which provided descriptions of each model's methods, assumptions and parameter values. The results of the generated scripts were compared to the published values from the original, human-programmed models. The models were replicated 15 times to capture variability in GPT-4's output. RESULTS: GPT-4 fully replicated the NSCLC model with high accuracy: 100% (15/15) of the artificial intelligence (AI)-generated NSCLC models were error-free or contained a single minor error, and 93% (14/15) were completely error-free. GPT-4 closely replicated the RCC model, although human intervention was required to simplify an element of the model design (one of the model's fifteen input calculations) because it used too many sequential steps to be implemented in a single prompt. With this simplification, 87% (13/15) of the AI-generated RCC models were error-free or contained a single minor error, and 60% (9/15) were completely error-free. Error-free model scripts replicated the published incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to within 1%. CONCLUSION: This study provides a promising indication that GPT-4 can have practical applications in the automation of health economic model construction. Potential benefits include accelerated model development timelines and reduced costs of development. Further research is necessary to explore the generalisability of LLM-based automation across a larger sample of models.

Chronic and neurotropic: A paradigm-challenging case of dengue virus encephalitis in patient with advanced human immunodeficiency virus infection.

A 32-year-old female with advanced HIV infection presented to an Australian hospital with subacute but worsening symptoms of encephalitis. Metagenomic sequencing and Dengue NS3 antigen staining of brain tissue confirmed active Dengue virus (DENV) encephalitis. The most recent possible DENV exposure was months prior in West Africa, indicating chronicity.

Estimates of congenital cytomegalovirus-attributable infant mortality in high-income countries: A review.

As many as 5%-10% of infants with symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) disease, or 0.4%-0.8% of all liveborn infants with cCMV infection, die in early infancy in high-income countries. However, estimates are uncertain due to several potential biases that can result from data limitations and study designs. First, infants with cCMV infections who die prior to diagnosis, which usually occurs at 1-4 weeks after birth, may be excluded from both the count of deaths and the denominator of cCMV births, resulting in left truncation and immortal time biases. These 'biases' are features of the data and do not reflect bias on the part of researchers, but understanding the potential existence of threats to validity can help with interpretation of findings. Left truncation of infant deaths occurring prior to diagnosis of cCMV can result in understatement of the burden of infant deaths due to cCMV. Conversely, overestimation of infant deaths associated with symptomatic cCMV may occur in clinical case series owing to greater representation of relatively severely affected infants owing to ascertainment and referral biases. In this review, we summarise the characteristics of 26 studies that reported estimates of cCMV-associated infant deaths, including potential biases or limitations to which those estimates may have been subject. We discuss study designs whose implementation might generate improved estimates of infant deaths attributable to cCMV. More complete estimates of the overall public health impact of cCMV could inform current and future screening, prevention, and vaccine research.

Measles, mumps, rubella and varicella antibodies among international and domestic university students.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-preventable infections are generally well controlled in Australia. However, gaps in immunity can lead to outbreaks and are important to identify. Young adults are a highly mobile population and a potential source of imported infections. We aimed to evaluate anti- measles, mumps, rubella and varicella (MMR&V) IgG seroprevalence and explore factors relating to antibody seropositivity. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among students from a large Australian university to collect demographic, vaccination, infection and travel characteristics. Blood samples were collected to measure MMR&V seroprevalence. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with seropositivity. RESULTS: Among 804 university students, seroprevalence (positive or equivocal) for measles was 82.3% (95% CI 79.6-84.8%), mumps 79.5% (95% CI 76.7-82.3%), rubella 91.5% (95% CI 89.6-93.5%) and varicella 86.2% (95% CI 84.1-88.8%), with 452 (56.2%, 95% CI 52.8-59.6) seropositive to all four viruses. Varicella seropositivity was highest in the older birth cohort (born 1988-1991). Measles seropositivity was higher for international students compared to domestic students. Among international students, mumps seroprevalence was significantly lower than measles and rubella seroprevalence. International travel in the previous 12 months was reported by 63.1% of students, but only 18.2% of travellers reported seeking pre-travel health advice prior to most recent international travel. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study suggests immunity to MMR&V is sub-optimal. We found the university student population to be highly mobile and unlikely to seek pre-travel advice; thus, they are a potential source of infection importation. The implementation of university immunization policies could address the gaps identified and our findings can inform the development of targeted vaccination campaigns.

Genome characterization of influenza A and B viruses in New South Wales, Australia, in 2019: A retrospective study using high-throughput whole genome sequencing.

BACKGROUND: During the 2019 severe influenza season, New South Wales (NSW) experienced the highest number of cases in Australia. This study retrospectively investigated the genetic characteristics of influenza viruses circulating in NSW in 2019 and identified genetic markers related to antiviral resistance and potential virulence. METHODS: The complete genomes of influenza A and B viruses were amplified using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequenced with an Illumina MiSeq platform. RESULTS: When comparing the sequencing data with the vaccine strains and reference sequences, the phylogenetic analysis revealed that most NSW A/H3N2 viruses (n = 68; 94%) belonged to 3C.2a1b and a minority (n = 4; 6%) belonged to 3C.3a. These viruses all diverged from the vaccine strain A/Switzerland/8060/2017. All A/H1N1pdm09 viruses (n = 20) showed genetic dissimilarity from vaccine strain A/Michigan/45/2015, with subclades 6B.1A.5 and 6B.1A.2 identified. All B/Victoria-lineage viruses (n = 21) aligned with clade V1A.3, presenting triple amino acid deletions at positions 162-164 in the hemagglutinin protein, significantly diverging from the vaccine strain B/Colorado/06/2017. Multiple amino acid substitutions were also found in the internal proteins of influenza viruses, some of which have been previously reported in hospitalized influenza patients in Thailand. Notably, the oseltamivir-resistant marker H275Y was present in one immunocompromised patient infected with A/H1N1pdm09 and the resistance-related mutation I222V was detected in another A/H3N2-infected patient. CONCLUSIONS: Considering antigenic drift and the constant evolution of circulating A and B strains, we believe continuous monitoring of influenza viruses in NSW via the high-throughput sequencing approach provides timely and pivotal information for both public health surveillance and clinical treatment.

Clinical, Genomic, and Immunological Characterization of RSV Surge in Sydney, Australia, 2022.

OBJECTIVES: The 2022 seasonal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic in Sydney, Australia saw an unprecedented number of RSV detections. We aimed to characterize genomic and immunologic factors associated with the surge in RSV cases. METHODS: Whole genome sequences of RSV were generated from 264 RSV-infected infants and linked to case-matched clinical data from the 2022 southern hemisphere RSV season. We then performed an immunologic analysis of baseline RSV-specific humoral immunity in women of childbearing age before and throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. RESULTS: Clinical analysis revealed a high burden of disease across patients of all health backgrounds. More than one-half of RSV-related health care visits by infants resulted in hospitalization, and one-quarter required high-flow respiratory support or a higher level of care. Viral phylogenetic analyses revealed that 2022 Sydney RSV sequences were closely related to viruses that had been circulating globally since 2017, including those detected in recent US outbreaks. Nonsynonymous mutations within the palivizumab and nirsevimab binding sites were detected at low frequencies. There was no difference in baseline RSV-neutralizing antibody titers between 2020 and 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, these findings suggest that neither the emergence of a novel RSV genotype nor hypothesized immune debt was associated with the surge of RSV cases and hospitalizations in 2022. Continued genomic and immunologic surveillance is required to further understand the factors driving outbreaks of RSV globally, and to inform guidelines for the rollout and ongoing use of recently developed immunotherapeutics and vaccines.

Bioinformatic investigation of discordant sequence data for SARS-CoV-2: insights for robust genomic analysis during pandemic surveillance.

The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated the rapid development and implementation of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and bioinformatic methods for managing the pandemic. However, variability in methods and capabilities between laboratories has posed challenges in ensuring data accuracy. A national working group comprising 18 laboratory scientists and bioinformaticians from Australia and New Zealand was formed to improve data concordance across public health laboratories (PHLs). One effort, presented in this study, sought to understand the impact of the methodology on consensus genome concordance and interpretation. SARS-CoV-2 WGS proficiency testing programme (PTP) data were retrospectively obtained from the 2021 Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia Quality Assurance Programmes (RCPAQAP), which included 11 participating Australian laboratories. The submitted consensus genomes and reads from eight contrived specimens were investigated, focusing on discordant sequence data and findings were presented to the working group to inform best practices. Despite using a variety of laboratory and bioinformatic methods for SARS-CoV-2 WGS, participants largely produced concordant genomes. Two participants returned five discordant sites in a high-Cτ replicate, which could be resolved with reasonable bioinformatic quality thresholds. We noted ten discrepancies in genome assessment that arose from nucleotide heterogeneity at three different sites in three cell-culture-derived control specimens. While these sites were ultimately accurate after considering the participants' bioinformatic parameters, it presented an interesting challenge for developing standards to account for intrahost single nucleotide variation (iSNV). Observed differences had little to no impact on key surveillance metrics, lineage assignment and phylogenetic clustering, while genome coverage <90 % affected both. We recommend PHLs bioinformatically generate two consensus genomes with and without ambiguity thresholds for quality control and downstream analysis, respectively, and adhere to a minimum 90 % genome coverage threshold for inclusion in surveillance interpretations. We also suggest additional PTP assessment criteria, including primer efficiency, detection of iSNVs and minimum genome coverage of 90 %. This study underscores the importance of multidisciplinary national working groups in informing guidelines in real time for bioinformatic quality acceptance criteria. It demonstrates the potential for enhancing public health responses through improved data concordance and quality control in SARS-CoV-2 genomic analysis during pandemic surveillance.

Fatal Human Neurologic Infection Caused by Pigeon Avian Paramyxovirus-1, Australia.

Avian paramyxovirus type 1 (APMV-1) is a virus of birds that results in a range of outcomes, from asymptomatic infections to outbreaks of systemic respiratory and neurologic disease, depending on the virus strain and the avian species affected. Humans are rarely affected; those who are predominantly experience mild conjunctivitis. We report a fatal case of neurologic disease in a 2-year-old immunocompromised child in Australia. Metagenomic sequencing and histopathology identified the causative agent as the pigeon variant of APMV-1. This diagnosis should be considered in neurologic conditions of undefined etiologies. Agnostic metagenomic sequencing methods are useful in such settings to direct diagnostic and therapeutic efforts.

Vaccine value profile for cytomegalovirus.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most common infectious cause of congenital malformation and a leading cause of developmental disabilities such as sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL), motor and cognitive deficits. The significant disease burden from congenital CMV infection (cCMV) led the US National Institute of Medicine to rank CMV vaccine development as the highest priority. An average of 6.7/1000 live births are affected by cCMV, but the prevalence varies across and within countries. In contrast to other congenital infections such as rubella and toxoplasmosis, the prevalence of cCMV increases with CMV seroprevalence rates in the population. The true global burden of cCMV disease is likely underestimated because most infected infants (85-90 %) have asymptomatic infection and are not identified. However, about 7-11 % of those with asymptomatic infection will develop SNHL throughout early childhood. Although no licensed CMV vaccine exists, several candidate vaccines are in development, including one currently in phase 3 trials. Licensure of one or more vaccine candidates is feasible within the next five years. Various models of CMV vaccine strategies employing different target populations have shown to provide substantial benefit in reducing cCMV. Although CMV can cause end-organ disease with significant morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised individuals, the focus of this vaccine value profile (VVP) is on preventing or reducing the cCMV disease burden. This CMV VVP provides a high-level, comprehensive assessment of the currently available data to inform the potential public health, economic, and societal value of CMV vaccines. The CMV VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, public health groups, policy organizations, and non-profit organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the CMV VVP and have described the state of knowledge and identified the current gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Preventing upper respiratory tract infections with prophylactic nasal carrageenan: a feasibility study.

Aim: To observe upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) symptoms, rhinovirus levels and compliance with daily carrageenan nasal spray. Methods: 102 adults were randomized to carrageenan or saline placebo three times daily for 8 weeks and URTI symptoms were recorded. A control group (n = 42) only recorded URTI symptoms. Participants collected nasal swabs when symptomatic. Results: Regular daily carrageenan prophylaxis resulted in consistent but nonsignificant reductions in URTI symptoms versus the placebo group. Saline placebo decreased and increased some cold symptoms compared with no treatment. Conclusion: Daily prophylactic administration of antiviral carrageenan may not significantly reduce URTI symptoms. Due to low compliance, use in a population with specific reasons to avoid URTIs may be more appropriate. Disease-specific outcomes may be more useful than symptom reporting.

Evidence supporting the use of therapeutic drug monitoring of ganciclovir in transplantation.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review describes current knowledge of ganciclovir (GCV) and valganciclovir (ValGCV) pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic characteristics, highlighting the likely contribution from host genetic factors to interpatient variability. The evidence and challenges surrounding optimization of drug dosing through therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) are examined, with recommendations made. RECENT FINDINGS: Pharmacokinetic studies of current dosing guidelines have shown high interindividual and intraindividual variability of GCV concentrations. This is sometimes associated with a slow decline in cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load in some transplant recipients. A high incidence of GCV-associated myelosuppression has limited the use of this drug in the transplant setting. Patient groups identified to benefit from GCV TDM include pediatric patients, cystic fibrosis with lung transplantation, obese with kidney transplantation, and patients with fluctuating renal function or on hemodialysis. The emergence of refractory resistant CMV, particularly in immune compromised patients, highlights the importance of appropriate dosing of these antivirals. Host genetic factors need to be considered where recently, two host genes were shown to account for interpatient variation during ganciclovir therapy. Therapeutic Drug Monitoring has been shown to improve target antiviral-level attainment. The use of TDM may guide concentration-based dose adjustment, potentially improving virological and clinical outcomes. However, evidence supporting the use of TDM in clinical practice remains limited and further study is needed in the transplant cohort. SUMMARY: Further studies examining novel biomarkers are needed to guide target concentrations in prophylaxis and treatment. The use of TDM in transplant recipients is likely to improve the clinical efficacy of current antivirals and optimize outcomes in transplant recipients.

Comparative Longitudinal Serological Study of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Profiles in People with COVID-19.

Serological diagnostic assays are essential tools for determining an individual's protection against viruses like SARS-CoV-2, tracking the spread of the virus in the community, and evaluating population immunity. To assess the diversity and quality of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody response, we have compared the antibody profiles of people with mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 using a dot blot assay. The test targeted the four major structural proteins of SARS-CoV-2, namely the nucleocapsid (N), spike (S) protein domains S1 and S2, and receptor-binding domain (RBD). Serum samples were collected from 63 participants at various time points for up to 300 days after disease onset. The dot blot assay revealed patient-specific differences in the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody profiles. Out of the 63 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical COVID-19, 35/63 participants exhibited diverse and robust responses against the tested antigens, while 14/63 participants displayed either limited responses to a subset of antigens or no detectable antibody response to any of the antigens. Anti-N-specific antibody levels decreased within 300 days after disease onset, whereas anti-S-specific antibodies persisted. The dynamics of the antibody response did not change during the test period, indicating stable antibody profiles. Among the participants, 28/63 patients with restricted anti-S antibody profiles or undetectable anti-S antibody levels in the dot blot assay also exhibited weak neutralization activity, as measured by a surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT) and a microneutralization test. These results indicate that in some cases, natural infections do not lead to the production of neutralizing antibodies. Furthermore, the study revealed significant serological variability among patients, regardless of the severity of their COVID-19 illness. These differences need to be carefully considered when evaluating the protective antibody status of individuals who have experienced primary SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Cytomegalovirus cyclin-dependent kinase ortholog vCDK/pUL97 undergoes regulatory interaction with human cyclin H and CDK7 to codetermine viral replication efficiency.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection is shaped by a tightly regulated interplay between viral and cellular proteins. Distinct kinase activities, such as the viral cyclin-dependent kinase ortholog (vCDK) pUL97 and cellular CDK7 are both crucial for efficient viral replication. Previously, we reported that both kinases, vCDK/pUL97 and CDK7, interact with cyclin H, thereby achieving an enhanced level of kinase activity and overall functionality in viral replication. Here we provide a variety of novel results, as generated on a methodologically extended basis, and present a concept for the codetermination of viral replication efficiency through these kinase activities: (i) cyclin H expression, in various human cell types, is substantially upregulated by strains of HCMV including the clinically relevant HCMV Merlin; (ii) vCDK/pUL97 interacts with human cyclin H in both HCMV-infected and plasmid-transfected cell systems; (iii) a doxycycline-inducible shRNA-dependent knock-down (KD) of cyclin H significantly reduces pUL97 activity (qSox in vitro kinase assay); (iv) accordingly, pUL97 in vitro kinase activity is seen significantly increased upon addition of recombinant cyclin H; (v) as a point of specific importance, human CDK7 activity shows an increase by vCDK/pUL97-mediated trans-stimulation (whereas pUL97 is not stimulated by CDK7); (vi) phosphosite-specific antibodies indicate an upregulated CDK7 phosphorylation upon HCMV infection, as mediated through a pUL97-specific modulatory effect (i.e. shown by pUL97 inhibitor treatment or pUL97-deficient viral mutant); (vii) finally, an efficient KD of cyclin H in primary fibroblasts generally results in an impaired HCMV replication efficiency as measured on protein and genomic levels. These results show evidence for the codetermination of viral replication by vCDK/pUL97, cyclin H and CDK7, thus supporting the specific importance of cyclin H as a central regulatory factor, and suggesting novel targeting options for antiviral drugs.

Novel siRNA therapeutics demonstrate multi-variant efficacy against SARS-CoV-2.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a respiratory virus that causes COVID-19 disease, with an estimated global mortality of approximately 2%. While global response strategies, which are predominantly reliant on regular vaccinations, have shifted from zero COVID to living with COVID, there is a distinct lack of broad-spectrum direct acting antiviral therapies that maintain efficacy across evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. This is of most concern for immunocompromised and immunosuppressed individuals who lack robust immune responses following vaccination, and others at risk for severe COVID and long-COVID. RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics induced by short interfering RNAs (siRNAs) offer a promising antiviral treatment option, with broad-spectrum antiviral capabilities unparalleled by current antiviral therapeutics and a high genetic barrier to antiviral escape. Here we describe novel siRNAs, targeting highly conserved regions of the SARS-CoV-1 and 2 genome of both human and animal species, with multi-variant antiviral potency against eight SARS-CoV-2 lineages - Ancestral VIC01, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Kappa and Omicron. Treatment with our siRNA resulted in significant protection against virus-mediated cell death in vitro, with >97% cell survival (P < 0.0001), and corresponding reductions of viral nucleocapsid RNA of up to 99.9% (P < 0.0001). When compared to antivirals; Sotrovimab and Remdesivir, the siRNAs demonstrated a more potent antiviral effect and similarly, when multiplexing siRNAs to target different viral regions simultaneously, an increased antiviral effect was observed compared to individual siRNA treatments (P < 0.0001). These results demonstrate the potential for a highly effective broad-spectrum direct acting antiviral against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants, including variants resistant to antivirals and vaccine generated neutralizing antibodies.

Enteroviruses and risk of islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled observational studies detecting viral nucleic acids and proteins.

BACKGROUND: Enteroviruses are routinely detected with molecular methods within large cohorts that are at risk of type 1 diabetes. We aimed to examine the association between enteroviruses and either islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed and Embase for controlled observational studies from inception until Jan 1, 2023. Cohort or case-control studies were eligible if enterovirus RNA or protein were detected in individuals with outcomes of islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes. Studies in pregnancy or other types of diabetes were excluded. Data extraction and appraisal involved author contact and deduplication, which was done independently by three reviewers. Study quality was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and National Health and Medical Research Council levels of evidence. Pooled and subgroup meta-analyses were done in RevMan version 5.4, with random effects models and Mantel-Haenszel odds ratios (ORs; 95% CIs). The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021278863. FINDINGS: The search returned 3266 publications, with 897 full texts screened. Following deduplication, 113 eligible records corresponded to 60 studies (40 type 1 diabetes; nine islet autoimmunity; 11 both), comprising 12077 participants (5981 cases; 6096 controls). Study design and quality varied, generating substantial statistical heterogeneity. Meta-analysis of 56 studies showed associations between enteroviruses and islet autoimmunity (OR 2·1, 95% CI 1·3-3·3; p=0·002; n=18; heterogeneity χ2/df 2·69; p=0·0004; I2=63%), type 1 diabetes (OR 8·0, 95% CI 4·9-13·0; p<0·0001; n=48; χ2/df 6·75; p<0·0001; I2=85%), or within 1 month of type 1 diabetes (OR 16·2, 95% CI 8·6-30·5; p<0·0001; n=28; χ2/df 3·25; p<0·0001; I2=69%). Detection of either multiple or consecutive enteroviruses was associated with islet autoimmunity (OR 2·0, 95% CI 1·0-4·0; p=0·050; n=8). Detection of Enterovirus B was associated with type 1 diabetes (OR 12·7, 95% CI 4·1-39·1; p<0·0001; n=15). INTERPRETATION: These findings highlight the association between enteroviruses and islet autoimmunity or type 1 diabetes. Our data strengthen the rationale for vaccine development targeting diabetogenic enterovirus types, particularly those within Enterovirus B. Prospective studies of early life are needed to elucidate the role of enterovirus timing, type, and infection duration on the initiation of islet autoimmunity and the progression to type 1 diabetes. FUNDING: Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity, European Association for the Study of Diabetes, JDRF, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and University of New South Wales.

A surge in serum mucosal cytokines associated with seroconversion in children at risk for type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: Autoantibodies to pancreatic islet antigens identify young children at high risk of type 1 diabetes. On a background of genetic susceptibility, islet autoimmunity is thought to be driven by environmental factors, of which enteric viruses are prime candidates. We sought evidence for enteric pathology in children genetically at-risk for type 1 diabetes followed from birth who had developed islet autoantibodies ("seroconverted"), by measuring mucosa-associated cytokines in their sera. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sera were collected 3 monthly from birth from children with a first-degree type 1 diabetes relative, in the Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA) study. Children who seroconverted were matched for sex, age, and sample availability with seronegative children. Luminex xMap technology was used to measure serum cytokines. RESULTS: Of eight children who seroconverted, for whom serum samples were available at least 6 months before and after seroconversion, the serum concentrations of mucosa-associated cytokines IL-21, IL-22, IL-25, and IL-10, the Th17-related cytokines IL-17F and IL-23, as well as IL-33, IFN-γ, and IL-4, peaked from a low baseline in seven around the time of seroconversion and in one preceding seroconversion. These changes were not detected in eight sex- and age-matched seronegative controls, or in a separate cohort of 11 unmatched seronegative children. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of children at risk for type 1 diabetes followed from birth, a transient, systemic increase in mucosa-associated cytokines around the time of seroconversion lends support to the view that mucosal infection, e.g., by an enteric virus, may drive the development of islet autoimmunity.