Prediction of survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the updated Swedish cardiac arrest risk score (SCARS) model.

Aims: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major health concern worldwide. Although one-third of all patients achieve a return of spontaneous circulation and may undergo a difficult period in the intensive care unit, only 1 in 10 survive. This study aims to improve our previously developed machine learning model for early prognostication of survival in OHCA. Methods and results: We studied all cases registered in the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry during 2010 and 2020 (n = 55 615). We compared the predictive performance of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), logistic regression, CatBoost, random forest, and TabNet. For each framework, we developed models that optimized (i) a weighted F1 score to penalize models that yielded more false negatives and (ii) a precision-recall area under the curve (PR AUC). LightGBM assigned higher importance values to a larger set of variables, while XGB made predictions using fewer predictors. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC ROC) scores for LightGBM were 0.958 (optimized for weighted F1) and 0.961 (optimized for a PR AUC), while for XGB, the scores were 0.958 and 0.960, respectively. The calibration plots showed a subtle underestimation of survival for LightGBM, contrasting with a mild overestimation for XGB models. In the crucial range of 0-10% likelihood of survival, the XGB model, optimized with the PR AUC, emerged as a clinically safe model. Conclusion: We improved our previous prediction model by creating a parsimonious model with an AUC ROC at 0.96, with excellent calibration and no apparent risk of underestimating survival in the critical probability range (0-10%). The model is available at www.gocares.se.

Non-coronary arterial outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus: a Swedish retrospective cohort study.

Background: Observational studies on long-term trends, risk factor association and importance are scarce for type 1 diabetes mellitus and peripheral arterial outcomes. We set out to investigate trends in non-coronary complications and their relationships with cardiovascular risk factors in persons with type 1 diabetes mellitus compared to matched controls. Methods: 34,263 persons with type 1 diabetes mellitus from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 164,063 matched controls were included. Incidence rates of extracranial large artery disease, aortic aneurysm, aortic dissection, lower extremity artery disease, and diabetic foot syndrome were analyzed using standardized incidence rates and Cox regression. Findings: Between 2001 and 2019, type 1 diabetes mellitus incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were as follows: extracranial large artery disease 296.5-84.3, aortic aneurysm 0-9.2, aortic dissection remained at 0, lower extremity artery disease 456.6-311.1, and diabetic foot disease 814.7-77.6. Persons with type 1 diabetes mellitus with cardiometabolic risk factors at target range did not exhibit excess risk of extracranial large artery disease [HR 0.83 (95% CI, 0.20-3.36)] or lower extremity artery disease [HR 0.94 (95% CI, 0.30-2.93)], compared to controls. Persons with type 1 diabetes with all risk factors at baseline, had substantially elevated risk for diabetic foot disease [HR 29.44 (95% CI, 3.83-226.04)], compared to persons with type 1 diabetes with no risk factors. Persons with type 1 diabetes mellitus continued to display a lower risk for aortic aneurysm, even with three cardiovascular risk factors at baseline [HR 0.31 (95% CI, 0.15-0.67)]. Relative importance analyses demonstrated that education, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), duration of diabetes and lipids explained 54% of extracranial large artery disease, while HbA1c, smoking and systolic blood pressure explained 50% of lower extremity artery disease and HbA1c alone contributed to 41% of diabetic foot disease. Income, duration of diabetes and body mass index explained 66% of the contribution to aortic aneurysm. Interpretation: Peripheral arterial complications decreased in persons with type 1 diabetes mellitus, except for aortic aneurysm which remained low. Besides glycemic control, traditional cardiovascular risk factors were associated with incident outcomes. Risk of these outcomes increased with additional risk factors present. Persons with type 1 diabetes mellitus exhibited a lower risk of aortic aneurysm compared to controls, despite presence of cardiovascular risk factors. Funding: Swedish Governmental and the county support of research and education of doctors, the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, Sweden and Åke-Wibergs grant.

Non-coronary peripheral arterial complications in people with type 2 diabetes: a Swedish retrospective cohort study.

Background: Few studies have explored long-term trends and risk factors for peripheral arterial complications in type 2 diabetes compared to the general population. Our research focuses on identifying optimal risk factors, their significance, risk associated with multifactorial risk factor control, and trends for these complications in diabetic patients versus general controls. Methods: This study included persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus entered into the Swedish National Diabetes Register 2001-2019 and controls matched for age-, sex- and county of residence. Outcomes comprised of extracranial large artery disease, aortic aneurysm, aortic dissection, lower extremity arterial disease and diabetes foot disease. Standardized incidence rates and Cox regression were used for analyses. Findings: The study comprises 655,250 persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus; average age 64.2; 43.8% women. Among persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the incidence rates per 100,000 person years for each non-coronary peripheral arterial complication event changed between 2001 and 2019 as follows: extracranial large artery disease 170.0-84.9; aortic aneurysm 40.6-69.2; aortic dissection 9.3 to 5.6; lower extremity artery disease from 338.8 to 190.8; and diabetic foot disease from 309.8 to 226.8. Baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking status and lipid levels were independently associated with all outcomes in the type 2 diabetes mellitus cohort. Within the cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the risk for extracranial large artery disease and lower extremity artery disease increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not within target. Excess risk for non-coronary peripheral arterial complications in the entire cohort for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus, compared to matched controls, were as follows: extracranial large artery disease adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.69 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.65-1.73), aortic aneurysm HR 0.89 (95% CI, 0.87-0.92), aortic dissection HR 0.51 (95% CI, 0.46-0.57) and lower extremity artery disease HR 2.59 (95% CI, 2.55-2.64). Interpretation: The incidence of non-coronary peripheral arterial complications has declined significantly among persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus, with the exception of aortic aneurysm. HbA1c, smoking and blood pressure demonstrated greatest relative contribution for outcomes and lower levels of cardiometabolic risk factors are associated with reduced relative risk of outcomes. Funding: Swedish Governmental and the County support of research and education of doctors, the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation and Åke-Wibergs grant.

Underlying reasons for sex difference in survival following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a mediation analysis.

AIMS: Previous studies have indicated a poorer survival among women following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), but the mechanisms explaining this difference remain largely uncertain.This study aimed to assess the survival after OHCA among women and men and explore the role of potential mediators, such as resuscitation characteristics, prior comorbidity, and socioeconomic factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a population-based cohort study including emergency medical service-treated OHCA reported to the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in 2010-2020, linked to nationwide Swedish healthcare registries. The relative risks (RR) of 30-day survival were compared among women and men, and a mediation analysis was performed to investigate the importance of potential mediators. Total of 43 226 OHCAs were included, of which 14 249 (33.0%) were women. Women were older and had a lower proportion of shockable initial rhythm. The crude 30-day survival among women was 6.2% compared to 10.7% for men [RR 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.54-0.62]. Stepwise adjustment for shockable initial rhythm attenuated the association to RR 0.85 (95% CI = 0.79-0.91). Further adjustments for age and resuscitation factors attenuated the survival difference to null (RR 0.98; 95% CI = 0.92-1.05). Mediation analysis showed that shockable initial rhythm explained ∼50% of the negative association of female sex on survival. Older age and lower disposable income were the second and third most important variables, respectively. CONCLUSION: Women have a lower crude 30-day survival following OHCA compared to men. The poor prognosis is largely explained by a lower proportion of shockable initial rhythm, older age at presentation, and lower income.

Effects of pharmacological interventions on mortality in patients with Takotsubo syndrome: a report from the SWEDEHEART registry.

AIMS: Takotsubo syndrome (TS) is a heart condition mimicking acute myocardial infarction. TS is characterized by a sudden weakening of the heart muscle, usually triggered by physical or emotional stress. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of pharmacological interventions on short- and long-term mortality in patients with TS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data from the SWEDEHEART (the Swedish Web System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) registry, which included patients who underwent coronary angiography between 2009 and 2016. In total, we identified 1724 patients with TS among 228 263 individuals in the registry. The average age was 66 ± 14 years, and 77% were female. Nearly half of the TS patients (49.4%) presented with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome, and a quarter (25.9%) presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Most patients (79.1%) had non-obstructive coronary artery disease on angiography, while 11.7% had a single-vessel disease and 9.2% had a multivessel disease. All patients received at least one pharmacological intervention; most of them used beta-blockers (77.8% orally and 8.3% intravenously) or antiplatelet agents [aspirin (66.7%) and P2Y12 inhibitors (43.6%)]. According to the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the probability of all-cause mortality was 2.5% after 30 days and 16.6% after 6 years. The median follow-up time was 877 days. Intravenous use of inotropes and diuretics was associated with increased 30 day mortality in TS [hazard ratio (HR) = 9.92 (P < 0.001) and HR = 3.22 (P = 0.001), respectively], while angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and statins were associated with decreased long-term mortality [HR = 0.60 (P = 0.025) and HR = 0.62 (P = 0.040), respectively]. Unfractionated and low-molecular-weight heparins were associated with reduced 30 day mortality [HR = 0.63 (P = 0.01)]. Angiotensin receptor blockers, oral anticoagulants, P2Y12 antagonists, aspirin, and beta-blockers did not statistically correlate with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that some medications commonly used to treat TS are associated with higher mortality, while others have lower mortality. These results could inform clinical decision-making and improve patient outcomes in TS. Further research is warranted to validate these findings and to identify optimal pharmacological interventions for patients with TS.

Early ICD implantation following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective cohort study from the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is generally beneficial in survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). OBJECTIVE: We studied the association between ICD implantation prior to discharge and survival in patients with cardiac aetiology or initial shockable rhythm in OHCA. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. Treatment associations were estimated using propensity scores. We used gradient boosting, Bayesian additive regression trees, neural networks, extreme gradient boosting and logistic regression to generate multiple propensity scores. We selected the model yielding maximum covariate balance to obtain weights, which were used in a Cox regression to calculate HRs for death or recurrent cardiac arrest. PARTICIPANTS: All cases discharged alive during 2010 to 2020 with a cardiac aetiology or initial shockable rhythm were included. A total of 959 individuals were discharged with an ICD, and 2046 were discharged without one. RESULTS: Among those experiencing events, 25% did so within 90 days in the ICD group, compared with 52% in the other group. All HRs favoured ICD implantation. The overall HR (95% CI) for ICD versus no ICD was 0.38 (0.26 to 0.56). The HR was 0.42 (0.28 to 0.63) in cases with initial shockable rhythm; 0.18 (0.06 to 0.58) in non-shockable rhythm; 0.32 (0.20 to 0.53) in cases with a history of coronary artery disease; 0.36 (0.22 to 0.61) in heart failure and 0.30 (0.13 to 0.69) in those with diabetes. Similar associations were noted in all subgroups. CONCLUSION: Among survivors of OHCA, those discharged with an ICD had approximately 60% lower risk of death or recurrent cardiac arrest. A randomised trial is warranted to study this further.

The capacity of neurological pupil index to predict the absence of somatosensory evoked potentials after cardiac arrest - An observational study.

Background: In neurologic prognostication of comatose survivors from cardiac arrest, two independent predictors of poor outcome are the loss of the Pupillary light reflex (PLR) and the loss of the N20 response from Somatosensory Evoked potentials (SSEP). The PLR can be quantitatively assessed by pupillometry. Both tests depend on the midbrain, in which a dysfunction reflects a severe hypoxic injury. We reasoned that a certain level of defective PLR would be predictive of a bilaterally absent SSEP N20 response. Method: Neurological Pupil index (NPi) from the pupillometry and the SSEP N20 response were registered >48 h after cardiac arrest in comatose survivors. Clinical data were retrospectively analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the capacity of NPi to predict bilaterally absent SSEP N20 response. An NPi threshold value resulting in <5% false positive rate (FPR) for bilaterally absent N20 response was identified. Results: From February 2020 to August 2022, we included 54 patients out of which 49 had conclusive pupillometry and SSEP examinations. The NPi threshold value with FPR < 5% was 3.4, yielding 36% sensitivity (95% CI 18-55) and significantly discriminated between respective groups with preserved and bilaterally absent N20 response to SSEP (p-value <0.01). Conclusion: In this limited cohort, NPi < 3.4 in patients remaining comatose >48 hours after cardiac arrest predicted bilateral loss of the SSEP N20 response with a FPR < 5%. If validated in a larger cohort, an NPi threshold may be clinically applied in settings where SSEP is unavailable.

Identifying top ten predictors of type 2 diabetes through machine learning analysis of UK Biobank data.

The study aimed to identify the most predictive factors for the development of type 2 diabetes. Using an XGboost classification model, we projected type 2 diabetes incidence over a 10-year horizon. We deliberately minimized the selection of baseline factors to fully exploit the rich dataset from the UK Biobank. The predictive value of features was assessed using shap values, with model performance evaluated via Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve, sensitivity, and specificity. Data from the UK Biobank, encompassing a vast population with comprehensive demographic and health data, was employed. The study enrolled 450,000 participants aged 40-69, excluding those with pre-existing diabetes. Among 448,277 participants, 12,148 developed type 2 diabetes within a decade. HbA1c emerged as the foremost predictor, followed by BMI, waist circumference, blood glucose, family history of diabetes, gamma-glutamyl transferase, waist-hip ratio, HDL cholesterol, age, and urate. Our XGboost model achieved a Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve of 0.9 for 10-year type 2 diabetes prediction, with a reduced 10-feature model achieving 0.88. Easily measurable biological factors surpassed traditional risk factors like diet, physical activity, and socioeconomic status in predicting type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, high prediction accuracy could be maintained using just the top 10 biological factors, with additional ones offering marginal improvements. These findings underscore the significance of biological markers in type 2 diabetes prediction.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Survival in children and young adults over 30 years, a nationwide registry-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We studied short-term (30-day) and long-term (up to ten-year) survival among children and young adults following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in Sweden over the course of the past 30 years. We also studied the causes of OHCA in children and examined predictors of survival. SETTING: This was a nationwide, registry-based cohort study, using the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. Our study comprised a cohort of 4,804 individuals aged 0 to 30 years who suffered OHCA between 1990 and 2020, in whom cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was initiated. We stratified the study cohort to distinct age groups and time periods. RESULTS: We found an increase in 30-day survival from 7% to 20% over the span of 30 years. In those under 1 year of age, survival increased from 2% to 19%. Time to CPR decreased from 14 to 2 min. The 10-year survival was high among those who survived 30 days. The etiology of cardiac arrests exhibited significant variations across different age groups but remained relatively consistent over time. Causes linked to mental illness constituted a substantial percentage of these cases. Compared to the reference period (1990-1994), the odds of survival in 2015-2020 was 3.00 (95% CI: 1.43, 6.94; p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Survival rate after OHCA in children and young adults has increased three-fold over the past 30 years. Still overall mortality is high underscoring the need for continued efforts to mitigate risk factors and optimize survival.

Comorbidities prior to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and diagnoses at discharge among survivors.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has a dismal prognosis with overall survival around 10%. Previous studies have shown conflicting results regarding the prevalence and significance of comorbidities in OHCA, as well as the underlying causes. Previously, 80% of sudden cardiac arrest have been attributed to coronary artery disease. We studied comorbidities and discharge diagnoses in OHCA in all of Sweden. METHODS: We used the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation, merged with the Inpatient Registry and Outpatient Registry to identify patients with OHCA from 2010 to 2020 and to collect all their comorbidities as well as discharge diagnoses (among those admitted to hospital). Patient characteristics were described using means, medians and SD. Survival curves were performed among hospitalised patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) as well as heart failure. RESULTS: A total of 54 484 patients with OHCA were included, of whom 35 894 (66%) were men. The most common comorbidities prior to OHCA were hypertension (43.6%), heart failure (23.6%), chronic ischaemic heart disease (23.6%) and atrial fibrillation (22.0%). Previous AMI was prevalent in 14.8% of men and 10.9% of women. Among women, 18.0% had type 2 diabetes, compared with 19.6% of the men. Among hospitalised patients, 30% were diagnosed with AMI, 27% with hypertension, 20% with ischaemic heart disease and 18% with heart failure as discharge diagnoses. CONCLUSION: In summary, we find evidence that nowadays a minority of cardiac arrests are due to coronary artery disease and AMIs and its complications. Only 30% of all cases of OHCA admitted to hospital were diagnosed with AMI. Coronary artery disease is now likely in the minority with regard to causes of OHCA.

Characteristics, survival and neurological outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in young adults in Sweden: A nationwide study.

Aim: The aim of this study was to present a comprehensive overview of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in young adults. Methods: The data set analyzed included all cases of OHCA from 1990 to 2020 in the age-range 16-49 years in the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (SRCR). OHCA between 2010 and 2020 were analyzed in more detail. Clinical characteristics, survival, neurological outcomes, and long-time trends in survival were studied. Logistic regression was used to study 30-days survival, neurological outcomes and Utstein determinants of survival. Results: Trends were assessed in 11,180 cases. The annual increase in 30-days survival during 1990-2020 was 5.9% with no decline in neurological function among survivors. Odds ratio (OR) for heart disease as the cause was 0.55 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.67) in 2017-2020 compared to 1990-1993. Corresponding ORs for overdoses and suicide attempts were 1.61 (95% CI 1.23-2.13) and 2.06 (95% CI 1.48-2.94), respectively. Exercise related OHCA was noted in roughly 5%. OR for bystander CPR in 2017-2020 vs 1990-1993 was 3.11 (95% CI 2.57 to 3.78); in 2020 88 % received bystander CPR. EMS response time increased from 6 to 10 minutes. Conclusion: Survival has increased 6% annually, resulting in a three-fold increase over 30 years, with stable neurological outcome. EMS response time increased with 66% but the majority now receive bystander CPR. Cardiac arrest due to overdoses and suicide attempts are increasing.

Risk of de novo aneurysm formation in patients previously diagnosed with a ruptured or unruptured aneurysm: 18-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Data on de novo aneurysm formation after treatment for intracranial aneurysms remains scarce. We studied the incidence of de novo aneurysm formation in patients who had undergone aneurysm treatment more than 18 years prior to follow-up. As it is a disease affecting a younger patient population more specific guidelines are needed when planning a follow-up regime. METHODS: The rate of de novo aneurysm formation was assessed with Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) follow-up >18 years after endovascular or microsurgical treatment for an intracranial aneurysm. Variables associated with de novo aneurysm formation were studied using logistic regression. Missing data were imputed using chained random forests. A data-driven model for the prediction of de novo aneurysm was created to calculate the relative variable importance of ten clinical features. RESULTS: De novo aneurysms were identified in 11/81 (13.6 %) patients, of whom 1 was male, over a median follow-up of 20 years. Sex was the most important variable associated with de novo aneurysm formation. Regarding the development of de novo aneurysm, men displayed an odds ratio (OR) of 0.16 (0.01-0.97), compared with women. OR for mRS score 2 or more was 0.20 (95 % CI 0.01-1.34), and OR for smokers was 3.70 (0.54-31.18). Six out of 11 patients (54.5 %) needed treatment; 1 underwent endovascular treatment (EVT) and 5 underwent microsurgical treatment (MST). The overall annual de novo aneurysm formation rate was 0.92 %. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the need for a longer follow-up imaging monitoring of patients that have previously undergone treatment for an intracranial aneurysm. These data are useful to take into consideration when planning a follow-up strategy.

Rapid response team activation prior to in-hospital cardiac arrest: Areas for improvements based on a national cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Rapid response teams (RRTs) are designed to improve the "chain of prevention" of in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA). We studied the 30-day survival of patients reviewed by RRTs within 24 hours prior to IHCA, as compared to patients not reviewed by RRTs. METHODS: A nationwide cohort study based on the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation, between January 1st, 2014, and December 31st, 2021. An explorative, hypothesis-generating additional in-depth data collection from medical records was performed in a small subgroup of general ward patients reviewed by RRTs. RESULTS: In all, 12,915 IHCA patients were included. RRT-reviewed patients (n = 2,058) had a lower unadjusted 30-day survival (25% vs 33%, p < 0.001), a propensity score based Odds ratio for 30-day survival of 0.92 (95% Confidence interval 0.90-0.94, p < 0.001) and were more likely to have a respiratory cause of IHCA (22% vs 15%, p < 0.001). In the subgroup (n = 82), respiratory distress was the most common RRT trigger, and 24% of the RRT reviews were delayed. Patient transfer to a higher level of care was associated with a higher 30-day survival rate (20% vs 2%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: IHCA preceded by RRT review is associated with a lower 30-day survival rate and a greater likelihood of a respiratory cause of cardiac arrest. In the small explorative subgroup, respiratory distress was the most common RRT trigger and delayed RRT activation was frequent. Early detection of respiratory abnormalities and timely interventions may have a potential to improve outcomes in RRT-reviewed patients and prevent further progress into IHCA.

No obesity paradox in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Data from the Swedish registry of cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Background: Although an "obesity paradox", which states an increased chance of survival for patients with obesity after myocardial infarction has been proposed, it is less clear whether this phenomenon even exists in patients suffering out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and if diabetes, which is often associated with obesity, implies an additional risk. Objective: To investigate if and how obesity, with or without diabetes, affects the survival of patients with OHCA. Methods: This study included 55,483 patients with OHCA reported to the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation between 2010 and 2020. Patients were classified in five groups: obesity only (Ob), type 1 diabetes only (T1D), type 2 diabetes only (T2D), obesity and any diabetes (ObD), or belonging to the group other (OTH). Patient characteristics and outcomes were studied using descriptive statistics, logistic, and Cox proportional regression. Results: Obesity only was found in 2.7% of the study cohort, while 3.2% had obesity and any type of diabetes. Ob patients were significantly younger than all other patients (p ≤ 0.001); the 30 day-survival was 9.6% in Ob, and 10.6%, 7.3%, 6.9%, and 12.7% in T1D, T2D, ObD, and OTH, respectively, with OR (95% CI) of 0.69 (0.57-0.82), 0.78 (0.56-1.05), 0.65 (0.59-0.71), and 0.55 (0.45-0.66) for Ob, T1D, T2D, and ObD, respectively (reference group OTH). No time-related trends in 30-days survival were found. Conclusion: Obesity was present in 6% of the population and was associated with younger age and a 30% reduction in survival; a combination of obesity and diabetes further reduced the survival rate.

Aetiology and outcome in hospitalized cardiac arrest patients.

Aims: To study aetiologies of in-hospital cardiac arrests (IHCAs) and their association with 30-day survival. Methods and results: Observational study with data from national registries. Specific aetiologies (n = 22) of IHCA patients between April 2018 and December 2020 were categorized into cardiac vs. non-cardiac and six main aetiology categories: myocardial ischemia, other cardiac causes, pulmonary causes, infection, haemorrhage, and other non-cardiac causes. Main endpoints were proportions in each aetiology, 30-day survival, and favourable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category scale 1-2) at discharge. Among, 4320 included IHCA patients (median age 74 years, 63.1% were men), approximate 50% had cardiac causes with a 30-day survival of 48.4% compared to 18.7% among non-cardiac causes (P < 0.001). The proportion in each category were: myocardial ischemia 29.9%, pulmonary 21.4%, other cardiac causes 19.6%, other non-cardiac causes 11.6%, infection 9%, and haemorrhage 8.5%. The odds ratio (OR) for 30-day survival compared to myocardial ischemia for each category were: other cardiac causes OR 1.48 (CI 1.24-1.76); pulmonary causes OR 0.36 (CI 0.3-0.44); infection OR 0.25 (CI 0.18-0.33); haemorrhage OR 0.22 (CI 0.16-0.3); and other non-cardiac causes OR 0.56 (CI 0.45-0.69). IHCA caused by myocardial ischemia had the best favourable neurological outcome while those caused by infection had the lowest OR 0.06 (CI 0.03-0.13). Conclusion: In this nationwide observational study, aetiologies with cardiac and non-cardiac causes of IHCA were evenly distributed. IHCA caused by myocardial ischemia and other cardiac causes had the strongest associations with 30-day survival and neurological outcome.

Left-sided valvular heart disease and survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a nationwide registry-based study.

Survival in left-sided valvular heart disease (VHD; aortic stenosis [AS], aortic regurgitation [AR], mitral stenosis [MS], mitral regurgitation [MR]) in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unknown. We studied all cases of OHCA in the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. All degrees of VHD, diagnosed prior to OHCA, were included. Association between VHD and survival was studied using logistic regression, gradient boosting and Cox regression. We studied time to cardiac arrest, comorbidities, survival, and cerebral performance category (CPC) score. We included 55,615 patients; 1948 with AS (3,5%), 384 AR (0,7%), 17 MS (0,03%), and 704 with MR (1,3%). Patients with MS were not described due to low case number. Time from VHD diagnosis to cardiac arrest was 3.7 years in AS, 4.5 years in AR and 4.1 years in MR. ROSC occurred in 28% with AS, 33% with AR, 36% with MR and 35% without VHD. Survival at 30 days was 5.2%, 10.4%, 9.2%, 11.4% in AS, AR, MR and without VHD, respectively. There were no survivors in people with AS presenting with asystole or PEA. CPC scores did not differ in those with VHD compared with no VHD. Odds ratio (OR) for MR and AR showed no difference in survival, while AS displayed OR 0.58 (95% CI 0.46-0.72), vs no VHD. AS is associated with halved survival in OHCA, while AR and MR do not affect survival. Survivors with AS have neurological outcomes comparable to patients without VHD.

Clinical Outcomes and Predictors of Long-Term Survival in Patients With and Without Previously Known Extracardiac Sarcoidosis Using Machine Learning: A Swedish Multicenter Study.

Background Cardiac involvement can be an initial manifestation in sarcoidosis. However, little is known about the association between various clinical phenotypes of cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) and outcomes. We aimed to analyze the relation of different clinical manifestations with outcomes of CS and to investigate the relative importance of clinical features influencing overall survival. Methods and Results A retrospective cohort of 141 patients with CS enrolled at 2 Swedish university hospitals was studied. Presentation, imaging studies, and outcomes of de novo CS and previously known extracardiac sarcoidosis were compared. Survival free of primary composite outcome (ventricular arrhythmias, heart transplantation, or death) was assessed. Machine learning algorithm was used to study the relative importance of clinical features in predicting outcome. Sixty-two patients with de novo CS and 79 with previously known extracardiac sarcoidosis were included. De novo CS showed more advanced New York Heart Association class (P=0.02), higher circulating levels of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) (P<0.001), and troponins (P<0.001), as well as a higher prevalence of right ventricular dysfunction (P<0.001). During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 61 (44-77) months, event-free survival was shorter in patients with de novo CS (P<0.001). The top 5 features predicting worse event-free survival in order of importance were as follows: impaired tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, de novo CS, reduced right ventricular ejection fraction, absence of ß-blockers, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusions Patients with de novo CS displayed more severe disease and worse outcomes compared with patients with previously known extracardiac sarcoidosis. Using machine learning, right ventricular dysfunction and de novo CS stand out as strong overall predictors of impaired survival.

Association between exercise load, resting heart rate, and maximum heart rate and risk of future ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the association between exercise workload, resting heart rate (RHR), maximum heart rate and the risk of developing ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS: The study included all participants from the UK Biobank who had undergone submaximal exercise stress testing. Patients with a history of STEMI were excluded. The allowed exercise load for each participant was calculated based on clinical characteristics and risk categories. We studied the participants who exercised to reach 50% or 35% of their expected maximum exercise tolerance. STEMI was adjudicated by the UK Biobank. We used Cox regression analysis to study how exercise tolerance and RHR were related to the risk of STEMI. RESULTS: A total of 66 949 participants were studied, of whom 274 developed STEMI during a median follow-up of 7.7 years. After adjusting for age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, peak expiratory flow and diabetes, we noted a significant association between RHR and the risk of STEMI (p=0.015). The HR for STEMI in the highest RHR quartile (>90 beats/min) compared with that in the lowest quartile was 2.92 (95% CI 1.26 to 6.77). Neither the maximum achieved exercise load nor the ratio of the maximum heart rate to the maximum load was significantly associated with the risk of STEMI. However, a non-significant but stepwise inverse association was noted between the maximum load and the risk of STEMI. CONCLUSION: RHR is an independent predictor of future STEMI. An RHR of >90 beats/min is associated with an almost threefold increase in the risk of STEMI.

Twenty Years of Cardiovascular Complications and Risk Factors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Swedish Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this work was to investigate trends (2001-2019) for cardiovascular events and cardiometabolic risk factor levels in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and matched control subjects. METHODS: This study included 679 072 individuals with T2D from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2 643 800 matched control subjects. Incident outcomes comprised coronary artery disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure (HF). Trends in time to first event for each outcome were analyzed with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. In the group with T2D, Cox regression was also used to assess risk factor levels beyond target and outcomes, as well as the relative importance of each risk factor to each model. RESULTS: Among individuals with T2D, incidence rates per 10 000 person-years in 2001 and 2019 were as follows: acute myocardial infarction, 73.9 (95% CI, 65.4-86.8) and 41.0 (95% CI, 39.5-42.6); coronary artery disease, 205.1 (95% CI, 186.8-227.5) and 80.2 (95% CI, 78.2-82.3); cerebrovascular disease, 83.9 (95% CI, 73.6-98.5) and 46.2 (95% CI, 44.9-47.6); and HF, 98.3 (95% CI, 89.4-112.0) and 75.9 (95% CI, 74.4-77.5). The incidence for HF plateaued around 2013, a trend that then persisted. In individuals with T2D, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and lipids were independently associated with outcomes. Body mass index alone potentially explained >30% of HF risk in T2D. For those with T2D with no risk factor beyond target, there was no excess cardiovascular risk compared with control subjects except for HF, with increased hazard with T2D even when no risk factor was above target (hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.35-1.67]). Risk for coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular disease increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not within target. Glycated hemoglobin was most prognostically important for incident atherosclerotic events, as was body mass index for incident of HF. CONCLUSIONS: Risk and rates for atherosclerotic complications and HF are generally decreasing among individuals with T2D, although HF incidence has notably plateaued in recent years. Modifiable risk factors within target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes. This was particularly notable for systolic blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin for atherosclerotic outcomes and body mass index for heart failure.

Survival Trends in Children With Tetralogy of Fallot in Sweden From 1970 to 2017.

Importance: Mortality in patients with tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) has decreased substantially since the start of surgical correction of this abnormality in the 1950s. However, nationwide data in Sweden comparing survival trends among pediatric patients with TOF with the general population are still limited. Objective: To study survival trends in pediatric patients with TOF and compare them with matched controls. Design, Setting, and Participants: A Swedish registry-based, nationwide, matched cohort study was conducted; data were collected from national health registers from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2017. Patients with a registered diagnosis of TOF as well as controls without TOF matched by birth year and sex were included in the study. Follow-up data were collected from birth to age 18 years, death, or the end of follow-up (December 31, 2017), whichever occurred first. Data analysis was performed from September 10 to December 20, 2022. Survival trends among patients with TOF were compared with matched controls using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality during childhood in patients with TOF and matched controls. Results: The population included 1848 patients (1064 [57.6%] males; mean [SD] age, 12.4 [6.7] years) with TOF and 16 354 matched controls. The number of patients who underwent congenital cardiac surgery (henceforth, surgery group) was 1527 (897 [58.7%] males). In the whole TOF population from birth until age 18 years, 286 patients (15.5%) died during a mean (SD) follow-up time of 12.4 (6.7) years. In the surgery group, 154 of 1527 patients (10.1%) died during a follow-up time of 13.6 (5.7) years with a mortality risk of 21.9 (95% CI, 16.2-29.7) compared with matched controls. When stratified by birth period, a substantial decrease in the mortality risk was noted in the surgery group, from 40.6 (95% CI, 21.9-75.4) in those born in the 1970s to 11.1 (95% CI, 3.4-36.4) in those born in the 2010s. Survival increased from 68.5% to 96.0%. The risk of mortality for surgery decreased from 0.52 in the 1979s to 0.19 in the 2010s. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest there has been substantial improvement in survival in children with TOF who underwent surgery from 1970 to 2017. However, the mortality rate is still significantly higher in this group compared with matched controls. Predictors of good and poor outcomes in this group need to be further explored, with the modifiable ones evaluated for further outcome improvements.