Viral emergence in marine mammals in the North Pacific may be linked to Arctic sea ice reduction.

Climate change-driven alterations in Arctic environments can influence habitat availability, species distributions and interactions, and the breeding, foraging, and health of marine mammals. Phocine distemper virus (PDV), which has caused extensive mortality in Atlantic seals, was confirmed in sea otters in the North Pacific Ocean in 2004, raising the question of whether reductions in sea ice could increase contact between Arctic and sub-Arctic marine mammals and lead to viral transmission across the Arctic Ocean. Using data on PDV exposure and infection and animal movement in sympatric seal, sea lion, and sea otter species sampled in the North Pacific Ocean from 2001-2016, we investigated the timing of PDV introduction, risk factors associated with PDV emergence, and patterns of transmission following introduction. We identified widespread exposure to and infection with PDV across the North Pacific Ocean beginning in 2003 with a second peak of PDV exposure and infection in 2009; viral transmission across sympatric marine mammal species; and association of PDV exposure and infection with reductions in Arctic sea ice extent. Peaks of PDV exposure and infection following 2003 may reflect additional viral introductions among the diverse marine mammals in the North Pacific Ocean linked to change in Arctic sea ice extent.

Stable Isotope Models Predict Foraging Habitat of Northern Fur Seals (Callorhinus ursinus) in Alaska.

We developed models to predict foraging habitat of adult female northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) using stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope values from plasma and red blood cells. Binomial generalized linear mixed models were developed using blood isotope samples collected from 35 adult female fur seals on three breeding colonies in Alaska during July-October 2006. Satellite location and dive data were used to define habitat use in terms of the proportion of time spent or dives made in different oceanographic/bathymetric domains. For both plasma and red blood cells, the models accurately predicted habitat use for animals that foraged exclusively off or on the continental shelf. The models did not perform as well in predicting habitat use for animals that foraged in both on- and off-shelf habitat; however, sample sizes for these animals were small. Concurrently collected scat, fatty acid, and dive data confirmed that the foraging differences predicted by isotopes were associated with diet differences. Stable isotope samples, dive data, and GPS location data collected from an additional 15 females during August-October 2008 validated the effective use of the models across years. Little within year variation in habitat use was indicated from the comparison between stable isotope values from plasma (representing 1-2 weeks) and red blood cells (representing the prior few months). Constructing predictive models using stable isotopes provides an effective means to assess habitat use at the population level, is inexpensive, and can be applied to other marine predators.

Dispersal provided resilience to range collapse in a marine mammal: insights from the past to inform conservation biology.

Population loss is often a harbinger of species extinction, but few opportunities exist to follow a species' demography and genetics through both time and space while this occurs. Previous research has shown that the northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) was extirpated from most of its range over the past 200-800 years and that some of the extirpated populations had unique life history strategies. In this study, widespread availability of subfossils in the eastern Pacific allowed us to examine temporal changes in spatial genetic structure during massive population range contraction and partial recovery. We sequenced the mitochondrial control region from 40 ancient and 365 modern samples and analyzed them through extensive simulations within a serial Approximate Bayesian Computation framework. These analyses suggest that the species maintained a high abundance, probably in subarctic refugia, that dispersal rates are likely 85% per generation into new breeding colonies, and that population structure was not higher in the past. Despite substantial loss of breeding range, this species' high dispersal rates and refugia appear to have prevented a loss of genetic diversity. High dispersal rates also suggest that previous evidence for divergent life history strategies in ancient populations likely resulted from behavioral plasticity. Our results support the proposal that panmictic, or nearly panmictic, species with large ranges will be more resilient to future disturbance and environmental change. When appropriately verified, evidence of low population structure can be powerful information for conservation decision-making.