Changing Hydrographic, Biogeochemical, and Acidification Properties in the Gulf of Maine as Measured by the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series, GNATS, Between 1998 and 2018.

The Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series (GNATS) has been run since 1998, across the Gulf of Maine (GoM), between Maine and Nova Scotia. GNATS goals are to provide ocean color satellite validation and to examine change in this coastal ecosystem. We have sampled hydrographical, biological, chemical, biogeochemical, and bio-optical variables. After 2008, warm water intrusions (likely North Atlantic Slope Water [NASW]) were observed in the eastern GoM at 50-180 m depths. Shallow waters (<50 m) significantly warmed in winter, summer, and fall but cooled during spring. Surface salinity and density of the GoM also significantly increased over the 20 years. Phytoplankton standing stock and primary production showed highly-significant decreases during the period. Concentrations of phosphate increased, silicate decreased, residual nitrate [N*; nitrate-silicate] increased, and the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen:phosphate decreased, suggesting increasing nitrogen limitation. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and its optical indices generally increased over two decades, suggesting changes to the DOC cycle. Surface seawater carbonate chemistry showed winter periods where the aragonite saturation (Ωar) dropped below 1.6 gulf-wide due to upward winter mixing of cool, corrosive water. However, associated with increased average GoM temperatures, Ωar has significantly increased. These results reinforce the hypothesis that the observed decrease in surface GoM primary production resulted from a switch from Labrador Sea Water to NASW entering the GoM. A multifactor analysis shows that decreasing GoM primary production is most significantly correlated to decreases in chlorophyll and particulate organic carbon plus increases in N* and temperature.

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography.

Copepods are among the most abundant marine metazoans and form a key link between marine primary producers, higher trophic levels, and carbon sequestration pathways. Climate change is projected to change surface ocean temperature by up to 4°C in the North Atlantic with many associated changes including slowing of the overturning circulation, areas of regional freshening, and increased salinity and reductions in nutrients available in the euphotic zone over the next century. These changes will lead to a restructuring of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities with cascading effects throughout the food web. Here we employ observations of copepods, projected changes in ocean climate, and species distribution models to show how climate change may affect the distribution of copepod species in the North Atlantic. On average species move northeast at a rate of 14.1 km decade-1 . Species turnover in copepod communities will range from 5% to 75% with the highest turnover rates concentrated in regions of pronounced temperature increase and decrease. The changes in species range vary according to copepod traits with the largest effects found to occur in the cooling, freshening area in the subpolar North Atlantic south of Greenland and in an area of significant warming along the Scotian shelf. Large diapausing copepods (>2.5 mm) which are higher in lipids and a crucial food source for whales, may have an advantage in the cooling waters due to their life-history strategy that facilitates their survival in the arctic environment. Carnivorous copepods show a basin wide increase in species richness and show significant habitat area increases when their distribution moves poleward while herbivores see significant habitat area losses. The trait-specific effects highlight the complex consequences of climate change for the marine food web.

Single Cell Genomics Reveals Viruses Consumed by Marine Protists.

The predominant model of the role of viruses in the marine trophic web is that of the "viral shunt," where viral infection funnels a substantial fraction of the microbial primary and secondary production back to the pool of dissolved organic matter. Here, we analyzed the composition of non-eukaryotic DNA associated with individual cells of small, planktonic protists in the Gulf of Maine (GoM) and the Mediterranean Sea. We found viral DNA associated with a substantial fraction cells from the GoM (51%) and the Mediterranean Sea (35%). While Mediterranean SAGs contained a larger proportion of cells containing bacterial sequences (49%), a smaller fraction of cells contained bacterial sequences in the GoM (19%). In GoM cells, nearly identical bacteriophage and ssDNA virus sequences where found across diverse lineages of protists, suggesting many of these viruses are non-infective. The fraction of cells containing viral DNA varied among protistan lineages and reached 100% in Picozoa and Choanozoa. These two groups also contained significantly higher numbers of viral sequences than other identified taxa. We consider mechanisms that may explain the presence of viral DNA in protistan cells and conclude that protistan predation on free viral particles contributed to the observed patterns. These findings confirm prior experiments with protistan isolates and indicate that the viral shunt is complemented by a viral link in the marine microbial food web. This link may constitute a sink of viral particles in the ocean and has implications for the flow of carbon through the microbial food web.

A note on the effects of epidemic forecasts on epidemic dynamics.

The purpose of a forecast, in making an estimate about the future, is to give people information to act on. In the case of a coupled human system, a change in human behavior caused by the forecast can alter the course of events that were the subject of the forecast. In this context, the forecast is an integral part of the coupled human system, with two-way feedback between forecast output and human behavior. However, forecasting programs generally do not examine how the forecast might affect the system in question. This study examines how such a coupled system works using a model of viral infection-the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model-when the model is used in a forecasting context. Human behavior is modified by making the contact rate responsive to other dynamics, including forecasts, of the SIR system. This modification creates two-way feedback between the forecast and the infection dynamics. Results show that a faster rate of response by a population to system dynamics or forecasts leads to a significant decline in peak infections. Responding to a forecast leads to a lower infection peak than responding to current infection levels. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to either higher or lower peak infections depending on whether the forecast under-or over-estimates the peak. The direction of inaccuracy in a forecast determines whether the outcome is better or worse for the population. While work is still needed to constrain model functional forms, forecast feedback can be an important component of epidemic dynamics that should be considered in response planning.

A qPCR-Based Survey of Haplosporidium nelsoni and Perkinsus spp. in the Eastern Oyster, Crassostrea virginica in Maine, USA.

Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) aquaculture is increasingly playing a significant role in the state of Maine's (USA) coastal economy. Here, we conducted a qPCR-based survey for Haplosporidium nelsoni, Perkinsus marinus, and Perkinsus chesapeaki in C. virginica (n = 1440) from six Maine sites during the summer-fall of 2016 and 2017. In the absence of reported die-offs, our results indicated the continued presence of the three protozoan parasites in the six sites. The highest H. nelsoni qPCR-prevalence corresponded to Jack's Point and Prentiss Island (x=40 and 48% respectively), both located in the Damariscotta River Estuary. Jack's Point, Prentiss Island, New Meadows River, and Weskeag River recorded the highest qPCR-prevalence for P. marinus (32-39%). While the P. marinus qPCR-prevalence differed slightly for the years 2016 and 2017, P. chesapeaki qPCR-prevalence in 2016 was markedly lower than 2017 (<20% at all sites versus >60% at all sites for each of the years, respectively). Mean qPCR-prevalence values for P. chesapeaki over the two-year study were ≥40% for samples from Jack's Point (49%), Prentiss Island (44%), and New Meadows River (40%). This study highlights that large and sustained surveys for parasitic diseases are fundamental for decision making toward the management of the shellfish aquaculture industry, especially for having a baseline in the case that die-offs occur.

It's about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem.

The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of (a) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; (b) direct evidence for shifts in timing; (c) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological-human systems; and (d) potential phenology-focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, occurrence of several larval fishes, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of additional larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro-invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter-spring ice-affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species-specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long-term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine and identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.

Molecular Epizootiology of Toxoplasma gondii and Cryptosporidium parvum in the Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) from Maine (USA).

Shellfish are known as a potential source of Toxoplasma gondii (responsible for toxoplasmosis), and Cryptosporidium parvum, which is one of the major causes of gastroenteritis in the world. Here we performed a comprehensive qPCR-based monthly survey for T. gondii and C. parvum during 2016 and 2017 in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) (n = 1440) from all six sites along the coast of Maine (USA). Pooled samples (mantle, gills, and rectum) from individual oysters were used for DNA extraction and qPCR. Our study resulted in detections of qPCR positives oysters for T. gondii and C. parvum at each of the six sites sampled (in 31% and 10% of total oysters, respectively). The prevalence of T. gondii was low in 2016, and in September 2017 several sites peaked in prevalence with 100% of the samples testing positive. The prevalence of C. parvum was very low except in one estuarine location (Jack's Point) in June 2016 (58%), and in October of 2016, when both prevalence and density of C. parvum at most of the sampling sites were among the highest values detected. Statistical analysis of environmental data did not identify clear drivers of retention, but there were some notable statistically significant patterns including current direction and nitrate along with the T. gondii prevalence. The major C. parvum retention event (in October 2016) corresponded with the month of highest dissolved oxygen measurements as well as a shift in the current direction revealed by nearby instrumentation. This study may guide future research to locate any contributing parasite reservoirs and evaluate the potential risk to human consumption.

Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures.

The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of "surprises"-conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.

Century-scale changes in phytoplankton phenology in the Gulf of Maine.

The phenology of major seasonal events is an important indicator of climate. We analyzed multiple datasets of in situ chlorophyll measurements from the Gulf of Maine dating back to the early 20th century in order to detect climate-scale changes in phenology. The seasonal cycle was consistently characterized by a two-bloom pattern, with spring and autumn blooms. The timing of both spring and autumn blooms has shifted later in the year at rates ranging from ∼1 to 9 days per decade since 1960, depending on the phenology metric, and trends only emerged at time scales of >40 years. Bloom phenology had only weak correlations with major climate indices. There were stronger associations between bloom timing and physical and chemical variables. Autumn bloom initiation correlated strongly with surface temperature and salinity, and spring bloom with nutrients. A later spring bloom also correlated with an increased cohort of Calanus finmarchicus, suggesting broader ecosystem implications of phytoplankton phenology.

Major role of nitrite-oxidizing bacteria in dark ocean carbon fixation.

Carbon fixation by chemoautotrophic microorganisms in the dark ocean has a major impact on global carbon cycling and ecological relationships in the ocean's interior, but the relevant taxa and energy sources remain enigmatic. We show evidence that nitrite-oxidizing bacteria affiliated with the Nitrospinae phylum are important in dark ocean chemoautotrophy. Single-cell genomics and community metagenomics revealed that Nitrospinae are the most abundant and globally distributed nitrite-oxidizing bacteria in the ocean. Metaproteomics and metatranscriptomics analyses suggest that nitrite oxidation is the main pathway of energy production in Nitrospinae. Microautoradiography, linked with catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization, indicated that Nitrospinae fix 15 to 45% of inorganic carbon in the mesopelagic western North Atlantic. Nitrite oxidation may have a greater impact on the carbon cycle than previously assumed.

Response to Comments on "Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery".

Palmer et al and Swain et al suggest that our "extra mortality" time series is spurious. In response, we show that including temperature-dependent mortality improves abundance estimates and that warming waters reduce growth rates in Gulf of Maine cod. Far from being spurious, temperature effects on this stock are clear, and continuing to ignore them puts the stock in jeopardy.

Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery.

Several studies have documented fish populations changing in response to long-term warming. Over the past decade, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine increased faster than 99% of the global ocean. The warming, which was related to a northward shift in the Gulf Stream and to changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, led to reduced recruitment and increased mortality in the region's Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Failure to recognize the impact of warming on cod contributed to overfishing. Recovery of this fishery depends on sound management, but the size of the stock depends on future temperature conditions. The experience in the Gulf of Maine highlights the need to incorporate environmental factors into resource management.

Survey for protozoan parasites in Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) from the Gulf of Maine using PCR-based assays.

Protozoan pathogens represent a serious threat to oyster aquaculture, since they can lead to significant production loses. Moreover, oysters can concentrate human pathogens through filter feeding, thus putting at risk raw oyster consumers' health. Using PCR-based assays in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) from Maine, we expand the Northeast range in the USA for the protozoans Perkinsus marinus, Perkinsus chesapeaki, and Haplosporidium nelsoni, and report for the first time the detection of the human pathogens Toxoplasma gondii and Cryptosporidium parvum. Oysters hosting both P. marinus and P. chesapeaki were more than three times as likely to be infected by a non-Perkinsus than those free of Perkinsus infections.

Protozoan parasites of bivalve molluscs: literature follows culture.

Bivalve molluscs are key components of the estuarine environments as contributors to the trophic chain, and as filter -feeders, for maintaining ecosystem integrity. Further, clams, oysters, and scallops are commercially exploited around the world both as traditional local shellfisheries, and as intensive or semi-intensive farming systems. During the past decades, populations of those species deemed of environmental or commercial interest have been subject to close monitoring given the realization that these can suffer significant decline, sometimes irreversible, due to overharvesting, environmental pollution, or disease. Protozoans of the genera Perkinsus, Haplosporidium, Marteilia, and Bonamia are currently recognized as major threats for natural and farmed bivalve populations. Since their identification, however, the variable publication rates of research studies addressing these parasitic diseases do not always appear to reflect their highly significant environmental and economic impact. Here we analyzed the peer- reviewed literature since the initial description of these parasites with the goal of identifying potential milestone discoveries or achievements that may have driven the intensity of the research in subsequent years, and significantly increased publication rates. Our analysis revealed that after initial description of the parasite as the etiological agent of a given disease, there is a time lag before a maximal number of yearly publications are reached. This has already taken place for most of them and has been followed by a decrease in publication rates over the last decade (20- to 30- year lifetime in the literature). Autocorrelation analyses, however, suggested that advances in parasite purification and culture methodologies positively drive publication rates, most likely because they usually lead to novel molecular tools and resources, promoting mechanistic studies. Understanding these trends should help researchers in prioritizing research efforts for these and other protozoan parasites, together with their development as model systems for further basic and translational research in parasitic diseases.

The biogeography of marine plankton traits.

Changes in marine plankton communities driven by environmental variability impact the marine food web and global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and other elements. To predict and assess these community shifts and their consequences, ecologists are increasingly investigating how the functional traits of plankton determine their relative fitness along environmental and biological gradients. Laboratory, field and modelling studies are adopting this trait-based approach to map the biogeography of plankton traits that underlies variations in plankton communities. Here, we review progress towards understanding the regulatory roles of several key plankton functional traits, including cell size, N2 -fixation and mixotrophy among phytoplankton, and body size, ontogeny and feeding behaviour for zooplankton. The trait biogeographical approach sheds light on what structures plankton communities in the current ocean, as well as under climate change scenarios, and also allows for finer resolution of community function because community trait composition determines the rates of significant processes, including carbon export. Although understanding of trait biogeography is growing, uncertainties remain that stem, in part, from the paucity of observations describing plankton functional traits. Thus, in addition to recommending widespread adoption of the trait-based approach, we advocate for enhanced collection, standardisation and dissemination of plankton functional trait data.

First principles of copepod development help explain global marine diversity patterns.

A major goal of modern ecology is to understand macroecological patterns based on their mechanistic underpinnings. The metabolic theory of ecology predicts a monotonic increase of biodiversity with temperature based on the principles of metabolism. For marine copepods, observations have shown that while biodiversity does increase with temperature, the theory's prediction overestimates the slope of this relationship by a factor of two. By relaxing the theory's assumption that size is invariant with respect to temperature, and by incorporating a mechanistic description of copepod development into the theory, we provide an adjusted prediction that agrees with the observed relationship. The addition of development into the theory adds the potential to refine the prediction for a wider range of taxa, to account for discrepancies between prediction and observations, and to describe a wider variety of temperature-richness relationships.

The impact of whaling on the ocean carbon cycle: why bigger was better.

BACKGROUND: Humans have reduced the abundance of many large marine vertebrates, including whales, large fish, and sharks, to only a small percentage of their pre-exploitation levels. Industrial fishing and whaling also tended to preferentially harvest the largest species and largest individuals within a population. We consider the consequences of removing these animals on the ocean's ability to store carbon. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Because body size is critical to our arguments, our analysis focuses on populations of baleen whales. Using reconstructions of pre-whaling and modern abundances, we consider the impact of whaling on the amount of carbon stored in living whales and on the amount of carbon exported to the deep sea by sinking whale carcasses. Populations of large baleen whales now store 9.1×10(6) tons less carbon than before whaling. Some of the lost storage has been offset by increases in smaller competitors; however, due to the relative metabolic efficiency of larger organisms, a shift toward smaller animals could decrease the total community biomass by 30% or more. Because of their large size and few predators, whales and other large marine vertebrates can efficiently export carbon from the surface waters to the deep sea. We estimate that rebuilding whale populations would remove 1.6×10(5) tons of carbon each year through sinking whale carcasses. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Even though fish and whales are only a small portion of the ocean's overall biomass, fishing and whaling have altered the ocean's ability to store and sequester carbon. Although these changes are small relative to the total ocean carbon sink, rebuilding populations of fish and whales would be comparable to other carbon management schemes, including ocean iron fertilization.