Bariatric Metabolic Surgery vs Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Mortality.

Importance: Evidence regarding the relative effectiveness of bariatric metabolic surgery (BMS) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in reducing mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) is limited. Objective: To compare all-cause mortality and nonfatal MACEs associated with BMS vs GLP-1RAs for adults with obesity and diabetes and without known cardiovascular disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational, retrospective cohort study was based on data obtained from the electronic medical records of Clalit Health Services (Clalit), the largest health care organization in Israel. The study included 6070 members aged 24 years or older, who had diabetes and obesity and no prior history of ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, or congestive heart failure. Patients who underwent BMS and patients who received GLP-1RAs from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2021, were matched 1:1 by age, sex, and clinical characteristics. Follow-up ended December 31, 2022. Exposures: Initiation of BMS or GLP-1RAs. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, assessed by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The secondary outcome was nonfatal MACEs, assessed by multivariate competing risk models. Results: The study included 3035 matched pairs of patients (total, 6070; mean [SD] age, 51.0 [9.5] years; 3938 women [64.9%]), who were followed up for a median of 6.8 years (IQR, 4.1-9.4 years). Among those with a diabetes duration of 10 years or less (2371 pairs), mortality was lower for those who underwent BMS than for those treated with GLP-1RAs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.38; 95% CI, 0.25-0.58). This association became nonsignificant when weight loss during the follow-up period was also included in the model (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.43-1.48). Among patients with a duration of diabetes longer than 10 years (664 pairs), no survival advantage was demonstrated for BMS over GLP-1RA (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.39-1.08). The risk for nonfatal MACEs did not differ between the treatment groups (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.49-1.10 among patients with a diabetes duration of ≤10 years; HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.80-1.85 among patients with a diabetes duration of >10 years). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, BMS was associated with greater reduced mortality compared with first-generation GLP-1RAs among individuals with a diabetes duration of 10 years or less, mediated via greater weight loss. No differences in the risk for mortality were observed between the treatment modalities among individuals with a longer duration of diabetes, nor in the occurrence of nonfatal MACEs among all patients.

Associations of Urban Blue and Green Spaces With Coronary Artery Calcification in Black Individuals and Disadvantaged Neighborhoods.

BACKGROUND: Proximity to urban blue and green spaces has been associated with improved cardiovascular health; however, few studies have examined the role of race and socioeconomic status in these associations. METHODS: Data were from the CARDIA study (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults). We included longitudinal measurements (1985-1986 to 2010-2011) of blue and green spaces, including percentage of blue space cover, distance to the nearest river, green space cover, and distance to the nearest major park. Presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) was measured with noncontrast cardiac computed tomography in 2010 to 2011. The associations of blue and green spaces with CAC were assessed with generalized estimating equation regression with adjustment for demographics, individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status, health-related behaviors, and other health conditions. We conducted stratified analyses by race and neighborhood deprivation score to investigate whether the association varied according to social determinants of health. RESULTS: The analytic sample included 1365 Black and 1555 White participants with a mean±SD age of 50.1±3.6 years. Among Black participants, shorter distance to a river and greater green space cover were associated with lower odds of CAC (per interquartile range decrease [1.45 km] to the river: odds ratio [OR], 0.90 [95% CI, 0.84-0.96]; per 10 percentage-point increase of green space cover: OR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.95]). Among participants in deprived neighborhoods, greater green space cover was associated with lower odds of CAC (per a 10 percentage-point increase: OR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80-0.99]), whereas shorter distance to the park was associated with higher odds of CAC (per an interquartile range decrease [5.3 km]: OR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.00-1.15]). Black participants in deprived neighborhoods had lower odds of CAC with shorter distance to a river (per an interquartile range decrease: OR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.82-0.98]) and greater green space cover (per a 10 percentage-point increase: OR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.97]). There was no statistical interaction between the blue and green spaces and race or neighborhood characteristics in association with CAC. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinally, shorter distance to a river and greater green space cover were associated with less CAC among Black participants and those in deprived neighborhoods. Shorter distance to a park was associated with increased odds of CAC among participants in deprived neighborhoods. Black participants residing in more deprived neighborhoods showed lower odds of CAC in association with greater exposure to river and green space cover.

The association between BNT162b2 vaccinations and incidence of immune-mediated comorbidities.

BACKGROUND: A large vaccination campaign was initiated worldwide in December 2020 in order to prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2 and severe Covid-19 disease. However, long-term adverse effects of vaccination remain unclear. Therefore, our objective was to examine the association between vaccination and the incidence of autoimmune diagnoses in the first year after vaccine uptake. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study based on Clalit Health Services (CHS) comprehensive database compared the rates of immune-mediated diagnoses among BNT162b2 vaccinated versus unvaccinated individuals. As a reference, a secondary cohort compared individuals infected with Sars-CoV-2 versus uninfected individuals. The minimum follow-up period was 4 months. The cohorts were divided into 4 age groups (12-17, 18-44, 45-64, 65 years or older). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were applied, followed by a correction for multiple comparisons using the False Discovery Rate (FDR) method, hence accounting for the investigation of multiple clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Increased risk for immune-mediated diagnoses following vaccination with BNT162b2 was observed for psoriasis in all age groups (HR 1.41-1.69), colitis among patients younger than 65 years (HR 1.38-1.93), vitiligo in patients aged 45-64 (HR 2.82, 95 %CI: 1.57-5.08) and for polymyalgia-rheumatica in patients aged 65 years or older (HR 2.12, 95 % CI: 1.3-3.47). In the reference cohort, patients who were infected by Covid-19 were at increased risk for fibromyalgia (HR 1.72, 95 % CI: 1.36-2.19 in individuals aged 18-44; HR 1.71, 95 % CI: 1.31-2.22 in individuals aged 45-64), and hypothyroidism (HR 1.54, 95 % CI: 1.15-2.07 in individuals aged 65 years or older). CONCLUSIONS: The BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with increased risk (though rare) for psoriasis, colitis and polymyalgia rheumatica. These findings should be considered as a part of the risk-benefit assessment when planning future vaccination programs for various population groups.

Effectiveness of bariatric metabolic surgery versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for prevention of congestive heart failure.

Comparative evidence for the effects of bariatric metabolic surgery (BMS) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) on cardiovascular outcomes is limited. Here, in an observational, retrospective cohort study, we compared the incidence of congestive heart failure (CHF) in adults living with obesity and diabetes without history of CHF (primary CHF) treated with BMS versus GLP-1RA. The population cohort comprised members of Clalit Health Services with no prior history of ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke or CHF. During the time period of 2008-2021, patients who underwent their first BMS were matched 1:1 with patients who initiated treatment with GLP-1RA, based on clinical characteristics. The study included 2,205 matched pairs of patients (64.5% female), followed for a median of 6.6 years and up to 12 years. Primary incidence of CHF occurred in 26 (1.2%) patients treated with BMS and in 90 patients treated with GLP-1RA (4.1%) (adjusted hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.27-0.68). Further adjustment for weight reduction did not significantly diminish this association (hazard ratio adjusted for weight reduction 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.82), indicating that the differential effect was not mediated through the relative advantage of BMS in maximal weight reduction. In this study, BMS was associated with a stronger reduction in primary incidence of CHF compared with treatment with GLP-1RA. With the increasing use of highly potent next-generation GLP-1RAs, further comparative long-term studies are warranted.

Association of Cardiovascular Health in Young Adulthood with Long-Term Blood Pressure Trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular health (CVH) in young adulthood (YA) has been associated with cardiovascular outcomes in older age. However, little is known about the relationship between YA CVH and mid-life BP trajectories. METHODS: Baseline CVH (defined by 7 of AHA's Life's Essential 8 [LE8] metrics, excluding BP) was measured in YA with individual metrics scored and averaged as a composite LE8 score. Categorical CVH status was defined as high, moderate, and low. Latent class analysis was used to identify trajectories of mid-BP (mean of SBP and DBP) from average ages 35 to 55 years. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the association of YA CVH status (continuously and categorically) with mid-life BP trajectory group membership. RESULTS: There were 3,688 participants from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study in YA with follow-up data for mid-life BP trajectories. We observed 3 BP trajectory groups, labeled as Persistently-Low, Middle, and High-Increasing. On average, each 10-points higher baseline LE8 score (mean [SD] of 73.5 [13.1]) in YA was associated with adjusted odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.84) for membership in the Middle and 0.65 (0.57-0.73) for membership in the High-Increasing trajectory groups. Compared with categorical low CVH status at baseline, those with high CVH were significantly less likely to be in the Middle and High-Increasing BP trajectory groups. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate or low CVH status in YA is associated with elevated mid-life BP trajectory. These data suggest that young adult CVH promotion may be important for primordial prevention of hypertension.

Association of Waist Circumference and Body Mass Index Deciles Ratio with All-Cause Mortality: Findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Given the importance and continued interest in finding a simple, accessible, and universal measure which reflects both general and abdominal adiposity, this study tested for an association of the ratio of WC decile to BMI decile (WC-d/BMI-d) with all-cause mortality. Individuals aged 18-79 years who had participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during the years 2007 to 2018 were included in the analysis. WC and BMI deciles were defined separately for males and females, while WC-d/BMI-d was calculated for each individual. The association of WC-d/BMI-d with mortality was assessed using logistic models for the total study population, and then again after stratification by sex, ethnicity, morbidity level, and BMI categories. Positive associations between WC-d/BMI-d and mortality were demonstrated for the total study population (adjusted OR = 1.545, 95%CI: 1.369-1.722) and within different sub-groups, including the population with a normal BMI level (adjusted OR = 1.32, 95%CI: 1.13-1.50). WC-d/BMI-d increased with age, with ~40 years representing a critical time point when WC-d surpasses BMI-d, with a sharper incline for males as compared to females. WC-d/BMI-d was significantly associated with all-cause mortality amongst NHANES American adults; thus, measurements of WC and its integration with BMI in this metric should be considered in clinical practice.

Trends in the Incidence of Cardiovascular Diagnoses and Procedures over the Years 2012-2021 in Israel: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Prior studies found reduced incidences of cardiovascular diagnoses and treatments in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these studies included a limited number of outcomes and did not consider pre-pandemic trends. This study aimed to describe trends in the incidence of cardiovascular diagnoses and treatments over the years 2012-2021 in Israel and to compare the two years of the COVID-19 period with the preceding 8 years. In this retrospective, population-based study, carried out within Clalit Health Services, the incidence rates of cardiovascular outcomes were calculated for individuals aged ≥ 25 (~2.7 million adults per year) during the first (Y1, 3/2020-2/2021) and second (Y2, 3/2021-2/2022) years of COVID-19 and the 8 years prior (3/2012-2/2020). Declines were observed in Y1 compared to 2019 in all diagnoses and treatments: STEMI (-16.3%; 95% CI: -16.6, -16.1), non-STEMI (-16.4%; -16.6, -16.2), AF (-14.1%; -14.2, -14.0), CHF (-7.8%; -7.9, -7.7), CVA (-5.0%; -5.0, -4.9), catheterization (-64.7%; -65.2, -64.2), CABG (-77.7%; -79.2, -76.2), ablation (-21.2%; -22.0, -20.4), pacemaker implantation (-39.3%; -40.7, -37.9), and defibrillator insertion (-12.5%; -13.1, -12.0). Compared with expected rates based on pre-pandemic trends, observed rates were within expected ranges (CHF, CVA, and ablation), less than expected (STEMI, non-STEMI, AF, catheterization, CABG, and pacemaker insertion), or more than expected (defibrillator insertion). In Y2, STEMI, catheterization, and CABG returned to expected rates; non-STEMI and AF were lower than expected; and CHF, CVA, ablation, and pacemaker and defibrillator implantations were higher than expected. Several cardiovascular diagnoses and treatment trends were interrupted by COVID-19. The long-term consequences of these changes should be considered by health policymakers.

Association between COVID-19 vaccination and critical outcomes among older adults with dementia: a comparative cohort study.

Background: As COVID-19 vaccines became available, understanding their potential benefits in vulnerable populations has gained significance. This study explored the advantages of COVID-19 vaccination in individuals with cognitive disorders by analyzing health-related variables and outcomes. Methods: A prospective cohort study analyzed electronic medical records of 25,733 older adults with cognitive disorders and 65,544 older adults without cognitive disorders from March 2020 to February 2022. COVID-19 vaccination status was the primary exposure variable, categorized as fully vaccinated or unvaccinated. The primary outcomes measured were all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates within 14 and 400 days post-vaccination. Data on vaccination status, demographics, comorbidities, testing history, and clinical outcomes were collected from electronic health records. The study was ethically approved by the relevant medical facility's Institutional Review Board (0075-22-MHS). Results: Vaccinated individuals had significantly lower mortality rates in both groups. In the research group, the mortality rate was 52% (n = 1852) for unvaccinated individuals and 7% (n = 1,241) for vaccinated individuals (p < 0.001). Similarly, in the control group, the mortality rate was 13.58% (n = 1,508) for unvaccinated individuals and 1.85% (n = 936) for vaccinated individuals (p < 0.001), despite higher COVID-19 positivity rates. In the research group, 30.26% (n = 1,072) of unvaccinated individuals tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 37.16% (n = 6,492) of vaccinated individuals (p < 0.001). In the control group, 17.31% (n = 1922) of unvaccinated individuals were COVID-19 positive, while 37.25% (n = 18,873) of vaccinated individuals tested positive (p < 0.001). Vaccination also showed potential benefits in mental health support. The usage of antipsychotic drugs was lower in vaccinated individuals (28.43%, n = 4,967) compared to unvaccinated individuals (37.48%, n = 1,328; 95% CI [0.92-1.28], p < 0.001). Moreover, vaccinated individuals had lower antipsychotic drug prescription rates (23.88%, n = 4,171) compared to unvaccinated individuals (27.83%, n = 968; 95% CI [-1.02 to -0.63], p < 0.001). Vaccination appeared to have a positive impact on managing conditions like diabetes, with 38.63% (n = 6,748) of vaccinated individuals having diabetes compared to 41.55% (n = 1,472) of unvaccinated individuals (95% CI [0.24, 0.48], p < 0.001). Discussion: The findings highlight the importance of vaccination in safeguarding vulnerable populations during the pandemic and call for further research to optimize healthcare strategies for individuals with cognitive disorders.

Race- and Sex-Specific Factors Associated With Age-Related Slopes in Systolic Blood Pressure: Findings From the CARDIA Study.

BACKGROUND: Although blood pressure (BP) increases throughout young adulthood for most individuals, the age-related slope is not uniform. This study aimed to assess associations of demographic, clinical, behavioral, psychosocial, and neighborhood characteristics with age-related BP slope among 4 race-sex groups who participated in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study. METHODS: Individuals (n=3554) aged 18 to 30 years were included in this analysis if they had normal BP at baseline and ≥2 BP measurements during the years 1985/1986 to 2015/2016. Associations of exposure variables with systolic BP slope were assessed using multivariate linear models. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of ~30 years, greater decade increases in systolic BP were estimated among Black than White participants (mean difference between Black females and White females: 3.0 mm Hg/decade; between Black males and White males: 4.7 mm Hg/decade). The exposure risk factors associated with greater increases in systolic BP throughout adulthood varied by race and sex. None of these factors were associated with increases in systolic BP in all race-sex groups. Parent history of high BP was associated with a steeper positive slope among Black females (effect size per decade: 1.1 [95% CI, 0.6-1.6]; P<0.01), Black males (0.6 [95% CI, 0.02-1.2]; P<0.05), and White females (0.6 [95% CI, 0.2-1.0]; P<0.01). Other risk factors were associated with greater age-related yearly increases in systolic BP among 1 or 2 of the 4 race-sex groups or were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Culturally tailored BP reduction approach should be considered in conjunction with primordial prevention, to moderate increases in BP throughout adulthood.

Cardiovascular risk profiles clusters among children and adolescents with disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a precursor for disabilities and death worldwide. Being overweight or obese in combination with physical inactivity and smoking habits may increase the risk for CVD and other health problems such as lower limb osteoarthritis, diabetes, stroke, and various cancer types among children and adolescents. The literature emphasizes the need to follow such groups and evaluate the risk of individuals developing CVD diseases. Therefore, the current study explores the variety of cardiovascular risks in children and adolescents' profiles clusters with and without disabilities. METHODS: Data from 42 countries including Israel, was collected with the support of the world health organization (WHO, Europe) through a questionnaire from 11-19 years old school-aged. RESULTS: The study finding shows that children and adolescents with disabilities demonstrated a higher prevalence of overweight than those who completed the HBSC youth behavior survey. Moreover, the prevalence of tobacco smoking and alcohol use was statisticaly significantly higher among the disabled group than the non-disabled group. In addition, socioeconomic status of responders who presented a very high CVD risk was found as significantly lower than those from the first and second low risk groups. CONCLUSION: This led to the conclusion that children and adolescents with disability were at a higher risk of developing CVDs than their non-disabled peers. In addition, intervention programs tailored to the needs of adolescents with disability should consider lifestyle habit change and promoting healthy living thus improving their quality of life as well as reducing their risk of being exposed to severe CVD diseases.

Time-varying association of acute and post-acute COVID-19 with new-onset diabetes mellitus among hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have shown disruption of glycometabolic control and new diabetes mellitus (DM) diagnosis among patients with COVID-19. It is still unclear how the association of COVID-19 and new-onset DM may be modified by disease severity or vary over time, during acute and post-acute phases. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this retrospective matched cohort study, 157 936 patients with COVID-19 (aged ≥25 years, diagnosis date between March 01, 2020 and August 31, 2021) were compared with individuals without COVID-19, separately for non-hospitalized, hospitalized, and severe hospitalized patients. Stratified Cox proportional hazards models, with changing baseline time (starting at the date of COVID-19 diagnosis, and at 1, 2, 3, and 4 months afterwards), were used to evaluate the occurrence of new DM in relation to COVID-19 infection in different time frames-from each landmark date until end of study. RESULTS: During mean follow-up time of 10.9 months, there were 1145 (0.72%) new diagnoses of DM compared with 1013 (0.64%) in the individuals without COVID-19 (p=0.004). Non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were not at higher risk of new DM neither during the acute phase nor afterward. Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 had a higher risk of developing DM, with the highest risk among severe hospitalized patients. This risk among hospitalized patients was highest in the acute phase (HR 2.47 (95% CI 1.86 to 3.29)), attenuated over time, but remained significant at 4-month landmark analysis (HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.29)). CONCLUSIONS: Acute and post-acute COVID-19 were associated with new DM only among hospitalized patients, with the highest risk among those hospitalized with severe disease. Those patients should be followed and monitored post-discharge for new DM. Patients who were not hospitalized did not have higher risk of new-onset DM.

Factors Associated with Using Telemedicine in the Primary Care Clinics during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Israel.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic generated an extraordinary need for telemedicine. OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors and multi-way interactions associated with telemedicine use in primary healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This population-based study included all members (2,722,773) aged ≥18 years of the largest healthcare organization in Israel who used primary care clinic services between 1 March 2020 and 31 December 2021. Individuals were classified as telemedicine users (≥1 phone/video visits or asynchronous encounters) or non-telemedicine users (only in-person encounter/s). RESULTS: Ethnicity was the most discriminative variable associated with telemedicine use, with 85% and 52% users among Jews and Arabs, respectively. Higher odds for telemedicine utilization were observed among women, residents of urban areas, those confined to home, individuals with high level of technology literacy, residents of the central area (in Jews only), young Jews, and older Arabs. Based on decision tree analysis, the segments of the population with the lowest telemedicine use were characterized by lower primary care needs and comorbidities, as well as low technology literacy. The proportion of telemedicine use in these groups was 56% and 27% in Jews and in Arabs, respectively. CONCLUSION: A proactive intervention program should be applied among populations who are less likely to use telemedicine in the primary care clinics, including Arabs, Jews who live in the distant periphery, and individuals with low technology literacy.

Identifying Cardiovascular Risk Profiles Clusters among Mediterranean Adolescents across Seven Countries.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of death globally and are partially due to the inability to control modifiable lifestyle risk factors. The aim of this study was to analyze the profiles of adolescents from seven Mediterranean countries (Greece, Israel, Italy, Macedonia, Malta, Portugal, Spain) according to their modifiable lifestyle risk factors for CVD (overweight/obesity, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption). The sample consisted of 26,110 adolescents (52.3% girls) aged 11, 13, and 15 years who participated in the Health Behavior in School-aged Children (HBSC) survey in 2018 across the seven countries. Sociodemographic characteristics (sex, age, country of residence, socioeconomic status) and CVD modifiable lifestyle risk factors (overweight/obesity, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption) were recorded. A two-step cluster analysis, one-way analysis of variance, and chi-square test were performed. Four different cluster groups were identified: two low-risk groups (64.46%), with risk among those with low physical activity levels; moderate-risk group (14.83%), with two risk factors (unhealthy weight and low physical activity level); and a high-risk group (20.7%), which presented risk in all modifiable lifestyle risk factors. Older adolescents reported a higher likelihood of being in the high-risk group. Given that the adolescence period constitutes an important time for interventions aimed at CVD prevention, identifying profiles of moderate- and high-risk adolescents is crucial.

Identifying patients with atrial fibrillation with a single CHA2DS2-VASC risk factor who are at higher risk of stroke.

AIMS: Management of patients with a single CHA2DS2-VASc score risk factor is controversial. We attempt to identify the "truly low risk" AF patients who will not benefit from oral anticoagulation (OAC) treatment. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis, all incident non-valvular AF (NVAF) cases between 2004 and 2015, and age 21 and older, with up to one thromboembolic risk factor besides sex (CHA2DS2-VASc score of up to 1 for men and up to 2 for women). A "low risk" score was created for these patients using a logistic regression model on the incidence of stroke within 30-2500 days following the NVAF diagnosis. RESULTS: We identified 15,621 patients. Average age was 53.7 ± 12.3 years, 56.6% male. Mean follow-up was 5.5 years. Significant predictors of ischemic stroke were age 65-74 and diabetes (2 points each), hypertension, vascular disease, and chronic kidney disease stage 2-3 (1 point each). Stroke incidence ranged from 0.8% for score 0 and up to 3.4% for scores ≤ 2. Odds ratio for stroke among patient group with a score ≤ 2 was 4.3 (2.9-6.6) compared with score 0. Our risk score's area-under-the-curve (AUC) for prediction of stroke was 0.68 (0.65-0.71), compared with 0.60 (0.57-0.62) for the CHAD2S2-VASc score, within this low-risk group. CONCLUSION: Patients considered at low or intermediate risk using traditional risk stratification schemes, with ≥ 2 points using this proposed low-risk index (65-74 years old, diabetics or a combination of chronic renal failure and an additional risk factor), had an overall stroke risk that may justify anticoagulation therapy.

Decision Tree-Based Classification for Maintaining Normal Blood Pressure Throughout Early Adulthood and Middle Age: Findings From the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

BACKGROUND: For most individuals, blood pressure (BP) is related to multiple risk factors. By utilizing the decision tree analysis technique, this study aimed to identify the best discriminative risk factors and interactions that are associated with maintaining normal BP over 30 years and to reveal segments of a population with a high probability of maintaining normal BP. METHODS: Participants from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study aged 18-30 years with normal BP level at baseline visit (Y0, 1985-1986) were included in this study. RESULTS: Of 3,156 participants, 1,132 (35.9%) maintained normal BP during the follow-up period and 2,024 (64.1%) developed higher BP. Systolic BP (SBP) within the normal range, race, and body mass index (BMI) were the most discriminative factors between participants who maintained normal BP throughout midlife and those who developed higher BP. Participants with a baseline SBP level ≤92 mm Hg and White women with baseline BMI < 23 kg/m2 were the two segments of the population with the highest probability for maintaining normal BP throughout midlife (69.2% and 59.9%, respectively). Among Black participants aged >26.5 years with BMI > 27 kg/m2, only 5.4% of participants maintained normal BP throughout midlife. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes the importance of early life factors to later life SBP and support efforts to maintain ideal levels of risk factors for hypertension at young ages. Whether policies to maintain lower BMI and SBP well below the clinical thresholds throughout young adulthood and middle age can reduce later age hypertension should be examined in future studies.

Body mass index trajectories among people with obesity and association with mortality: Evidence from a large Israeli database.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies using longitudinal weight data to characterize obesity are based on populations of limited size and mostly include individuals of all body mass index (BMI) levels, without focusing on weight changes among people with obesity. This study aimed to identify BMI trajectories over 5 years in a large population with obesity, and to determine the trajectories' association with mortality. METHODS: For inclusion, individuals aged 30-74 years at index date (1 January 2013) with continuous membership in Clalit Health Services from 2008 to 2012 were required to have ≥1 BMI measurement per year in ≥3 calendar years during this period, of which at least one was ≥30 kg/m2. Latent class analysis was used to generate BMI trajectories over 5 years (2008-2012). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between BMI trajectories and all-cause mortality during follow-up (2013-2017). RESULTS: In total, 367,141 individuals met all inclusion criteria. Mean age was 57.2 years; 41% were men. The optimal model was a quadratic model with four classes of BMI clusters. Most individuals (90.0%) had stable high BMI over time. Individuals in this cluster had significantly lower mortality than individuals in the other trajectory clusters (p < 0.01), including clusters of people with dynamic weight trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the current study show that people with stable high weight had the lowest mortality of all four BMI trajectories identified. These findings help to expand the scientific understanding of the impact that weight trajectories have on health outcomes, while demonstrating the challenges of discerning the cumulative effects of obesity and weight change, and suggest that dynamic historical measures of BMI should be considered when assessing patients' future risk of obesity-related morbidity and mortality, and when choosing a treatment strategy.

Maintaining Normal Blood Pressure Across the Life Course: The JHS.

[Figure: see text].

Association of Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure With Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Healthy Longevity: Findings From the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project Cohorts.

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but previous studies have mostly been limited to a single exam, a single cohort, a short follow-up period, or a limited number of outcomes. This study aimed to assess the association of 10-year cumulative systolic blood pressure (BP) in middle age with long-term risk of any CVD, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, all-cause mortality, and healthy longevity. Individuals (11 502) from 5 racially/ethnically diverse US community-based cohorts were included in this study once they met all the inclusion criteria: ≥10 year of observation in the included cohort, aged 45 to 60 years, free of CVD, and had ≥3 visits with BP exams over the preceding 10 years. For each participant, systolic BP level was predicted for each year of the 10-year prior inclusion, based on the available exams (median of 4.0; spread over, 9.1 [range, 7.2-10] years). Lower 10-year cumulative systolic BP was associated with 4.1 years longer survival and 5.4 years later onset of CVD, resulting in living longer life with a shorter period with morbidity. Models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, and index systolic BP demonstrated associations of 10-year cumulative systolic BP (per 130 mm Hg×year change, the threshold for stage-1 hypertension) with CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28 [95% CI, 1.20-1.36]), coronary heart disease (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.19-1.40]), stroke (HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.20-1.47]), heart failure (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.02-1.23]), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]). These findings emphasize the importance of 10-year cumulative systolic BP as a risk factor to CVD, above and beyond current systolic BP.

Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention in the Elderly and Its Association with New-Onset Diabetes, Cardiovascular Events, and All-Cause Mortality.

PURPOSE: This study assessed associations of the use of statins for primary prevention with cardiovascular outcomes among adults ages ≥70 years. METHODS: In a retrospective population-based cohort study, new users of statins without cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus were stratified by ages ≥70 years and <70 years. Using a time-dependent approach, adherence to statins was evaluated according to the proportion of days covered: <25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, and ≥75%. We assessed associations of statin therapy with increased risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus and with decreased risks of major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Of 42,767 new users of statins, 5970 (14%) were ages ≥70 years. The incident rates of major adverse cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and new-onset diabetes mellitus in the highest to lowest proportion of days covered categories were 16.9%, 16.7%, and 9.4% and 6.3%, 1.7%, and 9.4%, respectively. For the older group, the adjusted hazard ratios of major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality were significantly decreased for the highest adherence group (proportion of days covered ≥75%): 0.71 (0.57-0.88) and 0.68 (0.54-0.84), respectively. The respective hazard ratios were less favorable for the younger group: 0.80 (0.68-0.93) and 0.74 (0.58-1.03). The risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus was increased for the younger but not the older group. CONCLUSIONS: Statin use for primary prevention was associated with cardiovascular benefit in adults ages ≥70 years without a significant risk for the development of diabetes. These data may support the use of statin therapy for primary prevention in the elderly.

All-Cause Mortality of Patients With and Without Diabetes Following Bariatric Surgery: Comparison to Non-surgical Matched Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Data are sparse regarding the survival benefit of bariatric surgery on mortality among persons with diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association of bariatric surgery, compared with usual care, on all-cause mortality in individuals who underwent surgery and matched controls, stratified by the presence of diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilized population-based electronic medical record data. Individuals who underwent one of three types of bariatric surgery during 2005-2014 were included. For each surgical patient, three non-surgical individuals were matched according to age, sex, body mass index, and diabetes status. The cohort comprised 9564 individuals with diabetes and 23,976 individuals without diabetes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality for non-surgery vs. surgery were 2.38 (95%CI: 1.75, 3.26) and 1.73 (95%CI: 1.26, 2.36) among individuals with diabetes and individuals without diabetes, respectively. Considered separately, HRs for mortality for laparoscopic banding, gastric bypass, and laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy were 2.83 (95%CI: 1.73, 4.63), 2.30 (95%CI: 1.25, 4.25), and 1.89 (95%CI: 1.1, 3.32) among patients with diabetes; and 1.74 (95%CI: 1.20, 2.52), 2.66 (0.81, 8.76), and 1.16 (0.51, 2.65) among patients without diabetes. CONCLUSION: The survival advantage of bariatric surgery after a median follow-up of 4.2 years was greater among individuals with than without diabetes for the three types of surgery performed. Longer follow-up is needed to examine the effect on survival in individuals without diabetes who undergo bariatric surgery. These results suggest priority considerations for bariatric surgery candidates.