Measles in conflict-affected northern Syria: results from an ongoing outbreak surveillance program.

BACKGROUND: The Syrian conflict has dramatically changed the public health landscape of Syria since its onset in March of 2011. Depleted resources, fractured health systems, and increased security risks have disrupted many routine services, including vaccinations, across several regions in Syria. Improving our understanding of infectious disease transmission in conflict-affected communities is imperative, particularly in the Syrian conflict. We utilize surveillance data from the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) database managed by the Assistance Coordination Unit (ACU) to explore trends in the incidence of measles in conflict-affected northern Syria and analyze two consecutive epidemics in 2017 and 2018. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective time-series analysis of the incidence of clinically suspected cases of measles using EWARN data between January 2015 and June 2019. We compared regional and temporal trends to assess differences between geographic areas and across time. RESULTS: Between January 2015 and June 2019, there were 30,241 clinically suspected cases of measles reported, compared to 3193 cases reported across the whole country in the decade leading up to the conflict. There were 960 regional events that met the measles outbreak threshold and significant differences in the medians of measles incidence across all years (p-value < 0.001) and in each pairwise comparison of years as well as across all geographic regions (p-value < 0.001). Although most governorates faced an elevated burden of cases in every year of the study, the measles epidemics of 2017 and 2018 in the governorates of Ar-Raqqa, Deir-Ez-Zor, and Idlib accounted for over 71% of the total suspected cases over the entire study period. CONCLUSIONS: The 2017 and 2018 measles epidemics were the largest since Syria eliminated the disease in 1999. The regions most affected by these outbreaks were areas of intense conflict and displacement between 2014 and 2018, including districts in Ar-Raqqa, Deir-Ez-Zor, and Idlib. The spread of measles in northern Syria serves as an indicator of low immunization coverage and limited access to care and highlights the Syrian peoples' vulnerability to infectious diseases and vaccine preventable diseases in the setting of the current conflict.

Relationship between neighborhood census-tract level socioeconomic status and respiratory syncytial virus-associated hospitalizations in U.S. adults, 2015-2017.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection causes substantial morbidity and mortality in children and adults. Socioeconomic status (SES) is known to influence many health outcomes, but there have been few studies of the relationship between RSV-associated illness and SES, particularly in adults. Understanding this association is important in order to identify and address disparities and to prioritize resources for prevention. METHODS: Adults hospitalized with a laboratory-confirmed RSV infection were identified through population-based surveillance at multiple sites in the U.S. The incidence of RSV-associated hospitalizations was calculated by census-tract (CT) poverty and crowding, adjusted for age. Log binomial regression was used to evaluate the association between Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission or death and CT poverty and crowding. RESULTS: Among the 1713 cases, RSV-associated hospitalization correlated with increased CT level poverty and crowding. The incidence rate of RSV-associated hospitalization was 2.58 (CI 2.23, 2.98) times higher in CTs with the highest as compared to the lowest percentages of individuals living below the poverty level (≥ 20 and < 5%, respectively). The incidence rate of RSV-associated hospitalization was 1.52 (CI 1.33, 1.73) times higher in CTs with the highest as compared to the lowest levels of crowding (≥5 and < 1% of households with > 1 occupant/room, respectively). Neither CT level poverty nor crowding had a correlation with ICU admission or death. CONCLUSIONS: Poverty and crowding at CT level were associated with increased incidence of RSV-associated hospitalization, but not with more severe RSV disease. Efforts to reduce the incidence of RSV disease should consider SES.

Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States.

Accurate estimates of the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical to informing pandemic response. Confirmed COVID-19 case counts in the U.S. do not capture the total burden of the pandemic because testing has been primarily restricted to individuals with moderate to severe symptoms due to limited test availability. Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64-99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3-36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.

Sex differences and correlates of poor glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes: a cross-sectional study in Brazil and Venezuela.

OBJECTIVE: Examine whether glycaemic control varies according to sex and whether the latter plays a role in modifying factors associated with inadequate glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Brazil and Venezuela. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a cross-sectional, nationwide survey conducted in Brazil and Venezuela from February 2006 to June 2007 to obtain information about glycaemic control and its determinants in patients with diabetes mellitus attending outpatient clinics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level was measured by liquid chromatography, and patients with HbA1c ≥7.0% (53 mmol/mol) were considered to have inadequate glycaemic control. The association of selected variables with glycaemic control was analysed by multivariate linear regression, using HbA1c as the dependent variable. RESULTS: A total of 9418 patients with T2D were enrolled in Brazil (n=5692) and in Venezuela (n=3726). They included 6214 (66%) women and 3204 (34%) men. On average, HbA1c levels in women were 0.13 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.24; p=0.015) higher than in men, after adjusting for age, marital status, education, race, country, body mass index, duration of disease, complications, type of healthcare, adherence to diet, adherence to treatment and previous measurement of HbA1c. Sex modified the effect of some factors associated with glycaemic control in patients with T2D in our study, but had no noteworthy effect in others. CONCLUSIONS: Women with T2D had worse glycaemic control than men. Possible causes for poorer glycaemic control in women compared with men include differences in glucose homeostasis, treatment response and psychological factors. In addition, sex modified factors associated with glycaemic control, suggesting the need to develop specific treatment guidelines for men and women.

Effect of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic on invasive pneumococcal pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Because pneumococcal pneumonia was prevalent during previous influenza pandemics, we evaluated invasive pneumococcal pneumonia (IPP) rates during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. METHODS: We identified laboratory-confirmed, influenza-associated hospitalizations and IPP cases (pneumococcus isolated from normally sterile sites with discharge diagnoses of pneumonia) using active, population-based surveillance in the United States. We compared IPP rates during peak pandemic months (April 2009-March 2010) to mean IPP rates in nonpandemic years (April 2004-March 2009) and, using Poisson models, to 2006-2008 influenza seasons. RESULTS: Higher IPP rates occurred during the peak pandemic month compared to nonpandemic periods in 5-24 (IPP rate per 10 million: 48 vs 9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5-13), 25-49 (74 vs 53 [CI, 41-65]), 50-64 (188 vs 114 [CI, 85-143]), and ≥65-year-olds (229 vs 187 [CI, 159-216]). In the models with seasonal influenza rates included, observed IPP rates during the pandemic peak were within the predicted 95% CIs, suggesting this increase was not greater than observed with seasonal influenza. CONCLUSIONS: The recent influenza pandemic likely resulted in an out-of-season IPP peak among persons ≥5 years. The IPP peak's magnitude was similar to that seen during seasonal influenza epidemics.

The burden of invasive early-onset neonatal sepsis in the United States, 2005-2008.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis in the first 3 days of life is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among infants. Group B Streptococcus (GBS), historically the primary cause of early-onset sepsis (EOS), has declined through widespread use of intrapartum chemoprophylaxis. We estimated the national burden of invasive EOS cases and deaths in the era of GBS prevention. METHODS: Population-based surveillance for invasive EOS was conducted in 4 of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Active Bacterial Core surveillance sites from 2005 to 2008. We calculated incidence using state and national live birth files. Estimates of the national number of cases and deaths were calculated, standardizing by race and gestational age. RESULTS: Active Bacterial Core surveillance identified 658 cases of EOS; 72 (10.9%) were fatal. Overall incidence remained stable during the 3 years (2005: 0.77 cases/1000 live births; 2008: 0.76 cases/1000 live births). GBS (∼ 38%) was the most commonly reported pathogen followed by Escherichia coli (∼ 24%). Black preterm infants had the highest incidence (5.14 cases/1000 live births) and case fatality (24.4%). Nonblack term infants had the lowest incidence (0.40 cases/1000 live births) and case fatality (1.6%). The estimated national annual burden of EOS was approximately 3320 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3060-3580), including 390 deaths (95% CI: 300-490). Among preterm infants, 1570 cases (95% CI: 1400-1770; 47.3% of the overall) and 360 deaths (95% CI: 280-460; 92.3% of the overall) occurred annually. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of invasive EOS remains substantial in the era of GBS prevention and disproportionately affects preterm and black infants. Identification of strategies to prevent preterm births is needed to reduce the neonatal sepsis burden.

Geographic variation in invasive pneumococcal disease following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Rates of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) varied among the United States before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) introduction. We compared trends in IPD rates among diverse US sites over 10 years since PCV7 introduction. METHODS: Patients with IPD of all ages were identified through active population and laboratory-based surveillance in 8 geographic areas under continuous surveillance during 1998-2009. Isolates were serotyped. IPD incidence rates and percent changes were calculated by site, serotype group, age, and year. RESULTS: Reductions in rates of IPD ranged, by site, from 19 to 29.9 cases per 100,000 population during 1998-1999 to 11.2-18.0 cases per 100,000 population during 2009 (rate reduction, 5.1-15.3 cases per 100,000 population). Reductions in IPD rates among children aged <5 years ranged from 35.7 to 117.2 cases per 100,000 population across the sites. Reductions in rates of IPD due to PCV7 serotypes were seen in all age groups at all sites, ranging from 12 to 21.4 cases per 100,000 population during 1998-1999 to <2 cases per 100,000 population during 2009 (92%-98% reductions). Serotype 19A rates ranged from 0.4 to 1.5 cases per 100,000 population during 1998-1999 to 1.3 to 3.4 cases per 100,000 population during 2009 (rate difference, 0.9-2.8 cases per 100,000 population); modest increases were observed for most age groups across the sites. Rates of IPD due to all other serotypes ranged from 6.3 to 10.3 cases per 100,000 population during 1998-1999 to 8.3-13.6 cases per 100,000 population during 2009 (rate difference, -0.4 to 5.7 cases per 100,000 population). Across the sites, the greatest rate increases were seen in the 50-64 and >65 year age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in IPD due to vaccine serotypes were consistent across sites. Changes in serotype 19A and all other serotypes were variable. Although relative increases in non-vaccine type serotypes were large in some sites, absolute rate increases were small.

Identification and characterization of sporadic isolates of Streptococcus iniae isolated from humans.

Seven reference strains and seven clinical isolates of Streptococcus iniae, submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Streptococcus Reference Laboratory between 2001 and 2004, were successfully identified by a conventional identification system. The seven randomly submitted clinical isolates were sensitive to beta-lactams, macrolides, quinolones, and vancomycin. Two of the seven clinical isolates were resistant to tetracycline. All seven strains grew well and multiplied in a phagocytosis assay. One of the seven randomly submitted strains was more similar to the type strain of S. iniae than to the other six strains. The latter six strains were similar if not identical to representative strains from a cluster of disease in Canada (M. R. Weinstein et al., N. Engl. J. Med. 337:589-594, 1997).

Performance of a bedside C-reactive protein test in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia in adults with acute cough.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the performance of a rapid, bedside whole blood C-reactive protein test as a diagnostic test for pneumonia in adults. METHODS: We enrolled consecutive adults who presented with acute cough (duration < or =3 weeks). A fingerstick blood specimen for C-reactive protein level was obtained. Patients also provided information about demographic characteristics and symptoms. Physical examination findings, diagnoses, and treatments were abstracted from the medical record; illness duration and subsequent office visits were determined with follow-up telephone calls. A clinical prediction rule for pneumonia was calculated for each patient and compared with C-reactive protein levels. RESULTS: Twenty (12%) of the 168 patients in the study had radiographic evidence of pneumonia. Median C-reactive protein levels were significantly higher for patients with pneumonia than in the remaining patients (60 mg/L vs. 9 mg/L, P <0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for C-reactive protein level as a predictor of pneumonia was 0.83. C-reactive protein level and the clinical prediction rule were independently associated with pneumonia, yielding a combined area under the ROC curve of 0.93. C-reactive protein level was not associated with hospitalization or resolution of symptoms. CONCLUSION: C-reactive protein levels could be a valuable addition to clinical prediction rules for pneumonia. A C-reactive protein level > or =100 mg/L might be a useful indication for chest radiography or empiric antibiotic therapy when the diagnosis of pneumonia is in doubt.