Combining genomic and epidemiological data to compare the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Iota.

SARS-CoV-2 variants shaped the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the discourse around effective control measures. Evaluating the threat posed by a new variant is essential for adapting response efforts when community transmission is detected. In this study, we compare the dynamics of two variants, Alpha and Iota, by integrating genomic surveillance data to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) of the variants. We use Connecticut, United States, in which Alpha and Iota co-circulated in 2021. We find that the Rt of these variants were up to 50% larger than that of other variants. We then use phylogeography to show that while both variants were introduced into Connecticut at comparable frequencies, clades that resulted from introductions of Alpha were larger than those resulting from Iota introductions. By monitoring the dynamics of individual variants throughout our study period, we demonstrate the importance of routine surveillance in the response to COVID-19.

Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant rose to dominance in mid-2021, likely propelled by an estimated 40%-80% increased transmissibility over Alpha. To investigate if this ostensible difference in transmissibility is uniform across populations, we partner with public health programs from all six states in New England in the United States. We compare logistic growth rates during each variant's respective emergence period, finding that Delta emerged 1.37-2.63 times faster than Alpha (range across states). We compute variant-specific effective reproductive numbers, estimating that Delta is 63%-167% more transmissible than Alpha (range across states). Finally, we estimate that Delta infections generate on average 6.2 (95% CI 3.1-10.9) times more viral RNA copies per milliliter than Alpha infections during their respective emergence. Overall, our evidence suggests that Delta's enhanced transmissibility can be attributed to its innate ability to increase infectiousness, but its epidemiological dynamics may vary depending on underlying population attributes and sequencing data availability.

Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant quickly rose to dominance in mid-2021, displacing other variants, including Alpha. Studies using data from the United Kingdom and India estimated that Delta was 40-80% more transmissible than Alpha, allowing Delta to become the globally dominant variant. However, it was unclear if the ostensible difference in relative transmissibility was due mostly to innate properties of Delta's infectiousness or differences in the study populations. To investigate, we formed a partnership with SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs from all six New England US states. By comparing logistic growth rates, we found that Delta emerged 37-163% faster than Alpha in early 2021 (37% Massachusetts, 75% New Hampshire, 95% Maine, 98% Rhode Island, 151% Connecticut, and 163% Vermont). We next computed variant-specific effective reproductive numbers and estimated that Delta was 58-120% more transmissible than Alpha across New England (58% New Hampshire, 68% Massachusetts, 76% Connecticut, 85% Rhode Island, 98% Maine, and 120% Vermont). Finally, using RT-PCR data, we estimated that Delta infections generate on average ∼6 times more viral RNA copies per mL than Alpha infections. Overall, our evidence indicates that Delta's enhanced transmissibility could be attributed to its innate ability to increase infectiousness, but its epidemiological dynamics may vary depending on the underlying immunity and behavior of distinct populations.

Combining genomic and epidemiological data to compare the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineages.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have shaped the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the public health discourse around effective control measures. Evaluating the public health threat posed by a new variant is essential for appropriately adapting response efforts when community transmission is detected. However, this assessment requires that a true comparison can be made between the new variant and its predecessors because factors other than the virus genotype may influence spread and transmission. In this study, we develop a framework that integrates genomic surveillance data to estimate the relative effective reproduction number (R t ) of co-circulating lineages. We use Connecticut, a state in the northeastern United States in which the SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.526 co-circulated in early 2021, as a case study for implementing this framework. We find that the R t of B.1.1.7 was 6-10% larger than that of B.1.526 in Connecticut in the midst of a COVID-19 vaccination campaign. To assess the generalizability of this framework, we apply it to genomic surveillance data from New York City and observe the same trend. Finally, we use discrete phylogeography to demonstrate that while both variants were introduced into Connecticut at comparable frequencies, clades that resulted from introductions of B.1.1.7 were larger than those resulting from B.1.526 introductions. Our framework, which uses open-source methods requiring minimal computational resources, may be used to monitor near real-time variant dynamics in a myriad of settings.

Reduced subgenomic RNA expression is a molecular indicator of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Background: It is estimated that up to 80% of infections caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are asymptomatic and asymptomatic patients can still effectively transmit the virus and cause disease. While much of the effort has been placed on decoding single nucleotide variation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes, considerably less is known about their transcript variation and any correlation with clinical severity in human hosts, as defined here by the presence or absence of symptoms. Methods: To assess viral genomic signatures of disease severity, we conducted a systematic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 transcripts and genetic variants in 81 clinical specimens collected from symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals using multi-scale transcriptomic analyses including amplicon-seq, short-read metatranscriptome and long-read Iso-seq. Results: Here we show a highly coordinated and consistent pattern of sgRNA expression from individuals with robust SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection and their expression is significantly repressed in the asymptomatic infections. We also observe widespread inter- and intra-patient variants in viral RNAs, known as quasispecies frequently found in many RNA viruses. We identify unique sets of deletions preferentially found primarily in symptomatic individuals, with many likely to confer changes in SARS-CoV-2 virulence and host responses. Moreover, these frequently occurring structural variants in SARS-CoV-2 genomes serve as a mechanism to further induce SARS-CoV-2 proteome complexity. Conclusions: Our results indicate that differential sgRNA expression and structural mutational burden are highly correlated with the clinical severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Longitudinally monitoring sgRNA expression and structural diversity could further guide treatment responses, testing strategies, and vaccine development.

Mutations in Influenza A Virus Neuraminidase and Hemagglutinin Confer Resistance against a Broadly Neutralizing Hemagglutinin Stem Antibody.

Influenza A virus (IAV), a major cause of human morbidity and mortality, continuously evolves in response to selective pressures. Stem-directed, broadly neutralizing antibodies (sBnAbs) targeting the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) are a promising therapeutic strategy, but neutralization escape mutants can develop. We used an integrated approach combining viral passaging, deep sequencing, and protein structural analyses to define escape mutations and mechanisms of neutralization escape in vitro for the F10 sBnAb. IAV was propagated with escalating concentrations of F10 over serial passages in cultured cells to select for escape mutations. Viral sequence analysis revealed three mutations in HA and one in neuraminidase (NA). Introduction of these specific mutations into IAV through reverse genetics confirmed their roles in resistance to F10. Structural analyses revealed that the selected HA mutations (S123G, N460S, and N203V) are away from the F10 epitope but may indirectly impact influenza virus receptor binding, endosomal fusion, or budding. The NA mutation E329K, which was previously identified to be associated with antibody escape, affects the active site of NA, highlighting the importance of the balance between HA and NA function for viral survival. Thus, whole-genome population sequencing enables the identification of viral resistance mutations responding to antibody-induced selective pressure.IMPORTANCE Influenza A virus is a public health threat for which currently available vaccines are not always effective. Broadly neutralizing antibodies that bind to the highly conserved stem region of the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) can neutralize many influenza virus strains. To understand how influenza virus can become resistant or escape such antibodies, we propagated influenza A virus in vitro with escalating concentrations of antibody and analyzed viral populations by whole-genome sequencing. We identified HA mutations near and distal to the antibody binding epitope that conferred resistance to antibody neutralization. Additionally, we identified a neuraminidase (NA) mutation that allowed the virus to grow in the presence of high concentrations of the antibody. Virus carrying dual mutations in HA and NA also grew under high antibody concentrations. We show that NA mutations mediate the escape of neutralization by antibodies against HA, highlighting the importance of a balance between HA and NA for optimal virus function.

The Combined Effect of Oseltamivir and Favipiravir on Influenza A Virus Evolution.

Influenza virus inflicts a heavy death toll annually and resistance to existing antiviral drugs has generated interest in the development of agents with novel mechanisms of action. Favipiravir is an antiviral drug that acts by increasing the genome-wide mutation rate of influenza A virus (IAV). Potential synergistic benefits of combining oseltamivir and favipiravir have been demonstrated in animal models of influenza, but the population-level effects of combining the drugs are unknown. In order to elucidate the underlying evolutionary processes at play, we performed genome-wide sequencing of IAV experimental populations subjected to serial passaging in vitro under a combined protocol of oseltamivir and favipiravir. We describe the interplay between mutation, selection, and genetic drift that ultimately culminates in population extinction. In particular, selective sweeps around oseltamivir resistance mutations reduce genome-wide variation while deleterious mutations hitchhike to fixation given the increased mutational load generated by favipiravir. This latter effect reduces viral fitness and accelerates extinction compared with IAV populations treated with favipiravir alone, but risks spreading both established and newly emerging mutations, including possible drug resistance mutations, if transmission occurs before the viral populations are eradicated.

On the Analysis of Intrahost and Interhost Viral Populations: Human Cytomegalovirus as a Case Study of Pitfalls and Expectations.

Intrahost and interhost assessments of viral diversity are often treated as measures of separate and distinct evolutionary processes, with numerous investigations reporting seemingly incompatible results between the two. For example, in human cytomegalovirus, the nucleotide diversity estimates are 10-fold higher for interhost data, while the number of segregating (i.e., polymorphic) sites is 6-fold lower. These results have been interpreted as demonstrating that sampled intrahost variants are strongly deleterious. In reality, however, these observations are fully consistent with standard population genetic expectations. Here, we analyze published intra- and interhost data sets within this framework, utilizing statistical inference tools to quantify the fitness effects of segregating mutations. Further, we utilize population level simulations to clarify expectations under common evolutionary models. Contrary to common claims in the literature, these results suggest that most observed polymorphisms are likely nearly neutral with regard to fitness and that standard population genetic models in fact well predict observed levels of both intra- and interhost variability. IMPORTANCE With the increasing number of evolutionary virology studies examining both intrahost and interhost patterns of genomic variation, a number of seemingly incompatible results have emerged, revolving around the far greater level of observed intrahost than interhost variation. This has led many authors to suggest that the great majority of sampled within-host polymorphisms are strongly deleterious. Here, we demonstrate that there is in fact no incompatibility of these results and, indeed, that the vast majority of sampled within-host variation is likely neutral. These results thus represent a major shift in the current view of observed viral variation.

Characterizing human cytomegalovirus reinfection in congenitally infected infants: an evolutionary perspective.

Given the strong selective pressures often faced by populations when colonizing a novel habitat, the level of variation present on which selection may act is an important indicator of adaptive potential. While often discussed in an ecological context, this notion is also highly relevant in our clinical understanding of viral infection, in which the novel habitat is a new host. Thus, quantifying the factors determining levels of variation is of considerable importance for the design of improved treatment strategies. Here, we focus on such a quantification of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) - a virus which can be transmitted across the placenta, resulting in foetal infection that can potentially cause severe disease in multiple organs. Recent studies using genomewide sequencing data have demonstrated that viral populations in some congenitally infected infants diverge rapidly over time and between tissue compartments within individuals, while in other infants, the populations remain highly stable. Here, we investigate the underlying causes of these extreme differences in observed intrahost levels of variation by estimating the underlying demographic histories of infection. Importantly, reinfection (i.e. population admixture) appears to be an important, and previously unappreciated, player. We highlight illustrative examples likely to represent a single-population transmission from a mother during pregnancy and multiple-population transmissions during pregnancy and after birth.

An experimental evaluation of drug-induced mutational meltdown as an antiviral treatment strategy.

The rapid evolution of drug resistance remains a critical public health concern. The treatment of influenza A virus (IAV) has proven particularly challenging, due to the ability of the virus to develop resistance against current antivirals and vaccines. Here, we evaluate a novel antiviral drug therapy, favipiravir, for which the mechanism of action in IAV involves an interaction with the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase resulting in an effective increase in the viral mutation rate. We used an experimental evolution framework, combined with novel population genetic method development for inference from time-sampled data, to evaluate the effectiveness of favipiravir against IAV. Evaluating whole genome polymorphism data across 15 time points under multiple drug concentrations and in controls, we present the first evidence for the ability of IAV populations to effectively adapt to low concentrations of favipiravir. In contrast, under high concentrations, we observe population extinction, indicative of mutational meltdown. We discuss the observed dynamics with respect to the evolutionary forces at play and emphasize the utility of evolutionary theory to inform drug development.

Identification of Zika Virus and Dengue Virus Dependency Factors using Functional Genomics.

The flaviviruses dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are severe health threats with rapidly expanding ranges. To identify the host cell dependencies of DENV and ZIKV, we completed orthologous functional genomic screens using RNAi and CRISPR/Cas9 approaches. The screens recovered the ZIKV entry factor AXL as well as multiple host factors involved in endocytosis (RAB5C and RABGEF), heparin sulfation (NDST1 and EXT1), and transmembrane protein processing and maturation, including the endoplasmic reticulum membrane complex (EMC). We find that both flaviviruses require the EMC for their early stages of infection. Together, these studies generate a high-confidence, systems-wide view of human-flavivirus interactions and provide insights into the role of the EMC in flavivirus replication.

Utilizing a TLR5-Adjuvanted Cytomegalovirus as a Lentiviral Vaccine in the Nonhuman Primate Model for AIDS.

Despite tremendous progress in our understanding of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) natural history and advances in HIV treatment, there is neither an approved vaccine nor a cure for infection. Here, we describe the development and characterization of a novel replicating vaccine vector utilizing Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and a TLR5 adjuvant. After partial truncation of the central, immunodominant hypervariable domain, flagellin (fliC) from Salmonella was cloned downstream of a codon optimized gag gene from simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) and transiently expressed in telomerized rhesus fibroblast (TeloRF) cells in culture. Lysates generated from these transfected cells induced the tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), in a mouse macrophage cell line, in a TLR5-dependent manner. The Gag/FliC expression construct was cloned into a bacterial artificial chromosome encoding the rhesus CMV (RhCMV) genome, and infectious RhCMV was generated following transfection of TeloRF cells. This virus stably expressed an SIV Gag/FliC fusion protein through four serial passages. Lysates generated from infected cells induced TNF-α in a TLR5-dependent manner. Western blot analysis of infected cell lysates verified expression of a Gag/FliC fusion protein using a SIV p27 capsid monoclonal antibody. Lastly, rhesus macaques inoculated with this novel RhCMV virus demonstrated increased inflammatory responses at the site of inoculation seven days post-infection when compared to the parental RhCMV. These results demonstrate that an artificially constructed replicating RhCMV expressing an SIV Gag/FliC fusion protein is capable of activating TLR5 in a macrophage cell line in vitro and induction of an altered inflammatory response in vivo. Ongoing animals studies are aimed at determining vaccine efficacy, including subsequent challenge with pathogenic SIV.

Antiviral drug resistance as an adaptive process.

Antiviral drug resistance is a matter of great clinical importance that, historically, has been investigated mostly from a virological perspective. Although the proximate mechanisms of resistance can be readily uncovered using these methods, larger evolutionary trends often remain elusive. Recent interest by population geneticists in studies of antiviral resistance has spurred new metrics for evaluating mutation and recombination rates, demographic histories of transmission and compartmentalization, and selective forces incurred during viral adaptation to antiviral drug treatment. We present up-to-date summaries on antiviral resistance for a range of drugs and viral types, and review recent advances for studying their evolutionary histories. We conclude that information imparted by demographic and selective histories, as revealed through population genomic inference, is integral to assessing the evolution of antiviral resistance as it pertains to human health.

A Balance between Inhibitor Binding and Substrate Processing Confers Influenza Drug Resistance.

The therapeutic benefits of the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor oseltamivir are dampened by the emergence of drug resistance mutations in influenza A virus (IAV). To investigate the mechanistic features that underlie resistance, we developed an approach to quantify the effects of all possible single-nucleotide substitutions introduced into important regions of NA. We determined the experimental fitness effects of 450 nucleotide mutations encoding positions both surrounding the active site and at more distant sites in an N1 strain of IAV in the presence and absence of oseltamivir. NA mutations previously known to confer oseltamivir resistance in N1 strains, including H275Y and N295S, were adaptive in the presence of drug, indicating that our experimental system captured salient features of real-world selection pressures acting on NA. We identified mutations, including several at position 223, that reduce the apparent affinity for oseltamivir in vitro. Position 223 of NA is located adjacent to a hydrophobic portion of oseltamivir that is chemically distinct from the substrate, making it a hotspot for substitutions that preferentially impact drug binding relative to substrate processing. Furthermore, two NA mutations, K221N and Y276F, each reduce susceptibility to oseltamivir by increasing NA activity without altering drug binding. These results indicate that competitive expansion of IAV in the face of drug pressure is mediated by a balance between inhibitor binding and substrate processing.

On the relative roles of background selection and genetic hitchhiking in shaping human cytomegalovirus genetic diversity.

A central focus of population genetics has been examining the contribution of selective and neutral processes in shaping patterns of intraspecies diversity. In terms of selection specifically, surveys of higher organisms have shown considerable variation in the relative contributions of background selection and genetic hitchhiking in shaping the distribution of polymorphisms, although these analyses have rarely been extended to bacteria and viruses. Here, we study the evolution of a ubiquitous, viral pathogen, human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), by analysing the relationship among intraspecies diversity, interspecies divergence and rates of recombination. We show that there is a strong correlation between diversity and divergence, consistent with expectations of neutral evolution. However, after correcting for divergence, there remains a significant correlation between intraspecies diversity and recombination rates, with additional analyses suggesting that this correlation is largely due to the effects of background selection. In addition, a small number of loci, centred on long noncoding RNAs, also show evidence of selective sweeps. These data suggest that HCMV evolution is dominated by neutral mechanisms as well as background selection, expanding our understanding of linked selection to a novel class of organisms.

Limits and patterns of cytomegalovirus genomic diversity in humans.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) exhibits surprisingly high genomic diversity during natural infection although little is known about the limits or patterns of HCMV diversity among humans. To address this deficiency, we analyzed genomic diversity among congenitally infected infants. We show that there is an upper limit to HCMV genomic diversity in these patient samples, with ∼ 25% of the genome being devoid of polymorphisms. These low diversity regions were distributed across 26 loci that were preferentially located in DNA-processing genes. Furthermore, by developing, to our knowledge, the first genome-wide mutation and recombination rate maps for HCMV, we show that genomic diversity is positively correlated with these two rates. In contrast, median levels of viral genomic diversity did not vary between putatively single or mixed strain infections. We also provide evidence that HCMV populations isolated from vascular compartments of hosts from different continents are genetically similar and that polymorphisms in glycoproteins and regulatory proteins are enriched in these viral populations. This analysis provides the most highly detailed map of HCMV genomic diversity in human hosts to date and informs our understanding of the distribution of HCMV genomic diversity within human hosts.

Positive Selection Drives Preferred Segment Combinations during Influenza Virus Reassortment.

Influenza A virus (IAV) has a segmented genome that allows for the exchange of genome segments between different strains. This reassortment accelerates evolution by breaking linkage, helping IAV cross species barriers to potentially create highly virulent strains. Challenges associated with monitoring the process of reassortment in molecular detail have limited our understanding of its evolutionary implications. We applied a novel deep sequencing approach with quantitative analysis to assess the in vitro temporal evolution of genomic reassortment in IAV. The combination of H1N1 and H3N2 strains reproducibly generated a new H1N2 strain with the hemagglutinin and nucleoprotein segments originating from H1N1 and the remaining six segments from H3N2. By deep sequencing the entire viral genome, we monitored the evolution of reassortment, quantifying the relative abundance of all IAV genome segments from the two parent strains over time and measuring the selection coefficients of the reassorting segments. Additionally, we observed several mutations coemerging with reassortment that were not found during passaging of pure parental IAV strains. Our results demonstrate how reassortment of the segmented genome can accelerate viral evolution in IAV, potentially enabled by the emergence of a small number of individual mutations.

Human cytomegalovirus intrahost evolution-a new avenue for understanding and controlling herpesvirus infections.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is exquisitely adapted to the human host, and much research has focused on its evolution over long timescales spanning millennia. Here, we review recent data exploring the evolution of the virus on much shorter timescales, on the order of days or months. We describe the intrahost genetic diversity of the virus isolated from humans, and how this diversity contributes to HCMV spatiotemporal evolution. We propose mechanisms to explain the high levels of intrahost diversity and discuss how this new information may shed light on HCMV infection and pathogenesis.

Influenza virus drug resistance: a time-sampled population genetics perspective.

The challenge of distinguishing genetic drift from selection remains a central focus of population genetics. Time-sampled data may provide a powerful tool for distinguishing these processes, and we here propose approximate Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and analytical methods for the inference of demography and selection from time course data. Utilizing these novel statistical and computational tools, we evaluate whole-genome datasets of an influenza A H1N1 strain in the presence and absence of oseltamivir (an inhibitor of neuraminidase) collected at thirteen time points. Results reveal a striking consistency amongst the three estimation procedures developed, showing strongly increased selection pressure in the presence of drug treatment. Importantly, these approaches re-identify the known oseltamivir resistance site, successfully validating the approaches used. Enticingly, a number of previously unknown variants have also been identified as being positively selected. Results are interpreted in the light of Fisher's Geometric Model, allowing for a quantification of the increased distance to optimum exerted by the presence of drug, and theoretical predictions regarding the distribution of beneficial fitness effects of contending mutations are empirically tested. Further, given the fit to expectations of the Geometric Model, results suggest the ability to predict certain aspects of viral evolution in response to changing host environments and novel selective pressures.

Epstein-Barr virus latent membrane protein 1 genetic variability in peripheral blood B cells and oropharyngeal fluids.

UNLABELLED: We report the diversity of latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) gene founder sequences and the level of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genome variability over time and across anatomic compartments by using virus genomes amplified directly from oropharyngeal wash specimens and peripheral blood B cells during acute infection and convalescence. The intrahost nucleotide variability of the founder virus was 0.02% across the region sequences, and diversity increased significantly over time in the oropharyngeal compartment (P = 0.004). The LMP1 region showing the greatest level of variability in both compartments, and over time, was concentrated within the functional carboxyl-terminal activating regions 2 and 3 (CTAR2 and CTAR3). Interestingly, a deletion in a proline-rich repeat region (amino acids 274 to 289) of EBV commonly reported in EBV sequenced from cancer specimens was not observed in acute infectious mononucleosis (AIM) patients. Taken together, these data highlight the diversity in circulating EBV genomes and its potential importance in disease pathogenesis and vaccine design. IMPORTANCE: This study is among the first to leverage an improved high-throughput deep-sequencing methodology to investigate directly from patient samples the degree of diversity in Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) populations and the extent to which viral genome diversity develops over time in the infected host. Significant variability of circulating EBV latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) gene sequences was observed between cellular and oral wash samples, and this variability increased over time in oral wash samples. The significance of EBV genetic diversity in transmission and disease pathogenesis are discussed.