IWDA: Importance Weighting for Drift Adaptation in Streaming Supervised Learning Problems.

Distribution drift is an important issue for practical applications of machine learning (ML). In particular, in streaming ML, the data distribution may change over time, yielding the problem of concept drift, which affects the performance of learners trained with outdated data. In this article, we focus on supervised problems in an online nonstationary setting, introducing a novel learner-agnostic algorithm for drift adaptation, namely importance weighting for drift adaptation (IWDA), with the goal of performing efficient retraining of the learner when drift is detected. IWDA incrementally estimates the joint probability density of input and target for the incoming data and, as soon as drift is detected, retrains the learner using importance-weighted empirical risk minimization. The importance weights are computed for all the samples observed so far, employing the estimated densities, thus, using all available information efficiently. After presenting our approach, we provide a theoretical analysis in the abrupt drift setting. Finally, we present numerical simulations that illustrate how IWDA competes and often outperforms state-of-the-art stream learning techniques, including adaptive ensemble methods, on both synthetic and real-world data benchmarks.

The EU-funded I3LUNG Project: Integrative Science, Intelligent Data Platform for Individualized LUNG Cancer Care With Immunotherapy.

Although immunotherapy (IO) has changed the paradigm for the treatment of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancers (aNSCLC), only around 30% to 50% of treated patients experience a long-term benefit from IO. Furthermore, the identification of the 30 to 50% of patients who respond remains a major challenge, as programmed Death-Ligand 1 (PD-L1) is currently the only biomarker used to predict the outcome of IO in NSCLC patients despite its limited efficacy. Considering the dynamic complexity of the immune system-tumor microenvironment (TME) and its interaction with the host's and patient's behavior, it is unlikely that a single biomarker will accurately predict a patient's outcomes. In this scenario, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are becoming essential to the development of powerful decision-making tools that are able to deal with this high-complexity and provide individualized predictions to better match treatments to individual patients and thus improve patient outcomes and reduce the economic burden of aNSCLC on healthcare systems. I3LUNG is an international, multicenter, retrospective and prospective, observational study of patients with aNSCLC treated with IO, entirely funded by European Union (EU) under the Horizon 2020 (H2020) program. Using AI-based tools, the aim of this study is to promote individualized treatment in aNSCLC, with the goals of improving survival and quality of life, minimizing or preventing undue toxicity and promoting efficient resource allocation. The final objective of the project is the construction of a novel, integrated, AI-assisted data storage and elaboration platform to guide IO administration in aNSCLC, ensuring easy access and cost-effective use by healthcare providers and patients.

Machine Learning Using Real-World and Translational Data to Improve Treatment Selection for NSCLC Patients Treated with Immunotherapy.

(1) Background: In advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC), programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) remains the only biomarker for candidate patients to immunotherapy (IO). This study aimed at using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) tools to improve response and efficacy predictions in aNSCLC patients treated with IO. (2) Methods: Real world data and the blood microRNA signature classifier (MSC) were used. Patients were divided into responders (R) and non-responders (NR) to determine if the overall survival of the patients was likely to be shorter or longer than 24 months from baseline IO. (3) Results: One-hundred sixty-four out of 200 patients (i.e., only those ones with PD-L1 data available) were considered in the model, 73 (44.5%) were R and 91 (55.5%) NR. Overall, the best model was the linear regression (RL) and included 5 features. The model predicting R/NR of patients achieved accuracy ACC = 0.756, F1 score F1 = 0.722, and area under the ROC curve AUC = 0.82. LR was also the best-performing model in predicting patients with long survival (24 months OS), achieving ACC = 0.839, F1 = 0.908, and AUC = 0.87. (4) Conclusions: The results suggest that the integration of multifactorial data provided by ML techniques is a useful tool to select NSCLC patients as candidates for IO.

Real-world data to build explainable trustworthy artificial intelligence models for prediction of immunotherapy efficacy in NSCLC patients.

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods are being increasingly investigated as a means to generate predictive models applicable in the clinical practice. In this study, we developed a model to predict the efficacy of immunotherapy (IO) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using eXplainable AI (XAI) Machine Learning (ML) methods. Methods: We prospectively collected real-world data from patients with an advanced NSCLC condition receiving immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) either as a single agent or in combination with chemotherapy. With regards to six different outcomes - Disease Control Rate (DCR), Objective Response Rate (ORR), 6 and 24-month Overall Survival (OS6 and OS24), 3-months Progression-Free Survival (PFS3) and Time to Treatment Failure (TTF3) - we evaluated five different classification ML models: CatBoost (CB), Logistic Regression (LR), Neural Network (NN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). We used the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values to explain model predictions. Results: Of 480 patients included in the study 407 received immunotherapy and 73 chemo- and immunotherapy. From all the ML models, CB performed the best for OS6 and TTF3, (accuracy 0.83 and 0.81, respectively). CB and LR reached accuracy of 0.75 and 0.73 for the outcome DCR. SHAP for CB demonstrated that the feature that strongly influences models' prediction for all three outcomes was Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR). Performance Status (ECOG-PS) was an important feature for the outcomes OS6 and TTF3, while PD-L1, Line of IO and chemo-immunotherapy appeared to be more important in predicting DCR. Conclusions: In this study we developed a ML algorithm based on real-world data, explained by SHAP techniques, and able to accurately predict the efficacy of immunotherapy in sets of NSCLC patients.

Policy Search for the Optimal Control of Markov Decision Processes: A Novel Particle-Based Iterative Scheme.

Classical approximate dynamic programming techniques based on state-space gridding become computationally impracticable for high-dimensional problems. Policy search techniques cope with this curse of dimensionality issue by searching for the optimal control policy in a restricted parameterized policy space. We here focus on the case of discrete action space and introduce a novel policy parametrization that adopts particles to describe the map from the state space to the action space, each particle representing a region of the state space that is mapped into a certain action. The locations and actions associated with the particles describing a policy can be tuned by means of a recently introduced policy gradient method with parameter-based exploration. The task of selecting an appropriately sized set of particles is here solved through an iterative policy building scheme that adds new particles to improve the policy performance and is also capable of removing redundant particles. Experiments demonstrate the scalability of the proposed approach as the dimensionality of the state-space grows.