phytools 2.0: an updated R ecosystem for phylogenetic comparative methods (and other things).

Phylogenetic comparative methods comprise the general endeavor of using an estimated phylogenetic tree (or set of trees) to make secondary inferences: about trait evolution, diversification dynamics, biogeography, community ecology, and a wide range of other phenomena or processes. Over the past ten years or so, the phytools R package has grown to become an important research tool for phylogenetic comparative analysis. phytools is a diverse contributed R library now consisting of hundreds of different functions covering a variety of methods and purposes in phylogenetic biology. As of the time of writing, phytools included functionality for fitting models of trait evolution, for reconstructing ancestral states, for studying diversification on trees, and for visualizing phylogenies, comparative data, and fitted models, as well numerous other tasks related to phylogenetic biology. Here, I describe some significant features of and recent updates to phytools, while also illustrating several popular workflows of the phytools computational software.

The Difficulty of Predicting Evolutionary Change in Response to Novel Ecological Interactions: A Field Experiment with Anolis Lizards.

AbstractDetermining whether and how evolution is predictable is an important goal, particularly as anthropogenic disturbances lead to novel species interactions that could modify selective pressures. Here, we use a multigeneration field experiment with brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) to test hypotheses about the predictability of evolution. We manipulated the presence/absence of predators and competitors of A. sagrei across 16 islands in the Bahamas that had preexisting brown anole populations. Before the experiment and again after roughly five generations, we measured traits related to locomotor performance and habitat use by brown anoles and used double-digest restriction enzyme-associated DNA sequencing to estimate genome-wide changes in allele frequencies. Although previous work showed that predators and competitors had characteristic effects on brown anole behavior, diet, and population sizes, we found that evolutionary change at both phenotypic and genomic levels was difficult to forecast. Phenotypic changes were contingent on sex and habitat use, whereas genetic change was unpredictable and not measurably correlated with phenotypic changes, experimental treatments, or other environmental factors. Our work shows how differences in ecological context can alter evolutionary outcomes over short timescales and underscores the difficulty of forecasting evolutionary responses to multispecies interactions in natural conditions, even in a well-studied system with ample supporting ecological information.

Genome-wide parallelism underlies contemporary adaptation in urban lizards.

Urbanization drastically transforms landscapes, resulting in fragmentation, degradation, and the loss of local biodiversity. Yet, urban environments also offer opportunities to observe rapid evolutionary change in wild populations that survive and even thrive in these novel habitats. In many ways, cities represent replicated "natural experiments" in which geographically separated populations adaptively respond to similar selection pressures over rapid evolutionary timescales. Little is known, however, about the genetic basis of adaptive phenotypic differentiation in urban populations nor the extent to which phenotypic parallelism is reflected at the genomic level with signatures of parallel selection. Here, we analyzed the genomic underpinnings of parallel urban-associated phenotypic change in Anolis cristatellus, a small-bodied neotropical lizard found abundantly in both urbanized and forested environments. We show that phenotypic parallelism in response to parallel urban environmental change is underlain by genomic parallelism and identify candidate loci across the Anolis genome associated with this adaptive morphological divergence. Our findings point to polygenic selection on standing genetic variation as a key process to effectuate rapid morphological adaptation. Identified candidate loci represent several functions associated with skeletomuscular development, morphology, and human disease. Taken together, these results shed light on the genomic basis of complex morphological adaptations, provide insight into the role of contingency and determinism in adaptation to novel environments, and underscore the value of urban environments to address fundamental evolutionary questions.

A simple hierarchical model for heterogeneity in the evolutionary correlation on a phylogenetic tree.

Numerous questions in phylogenetic comparative biology revolve around the correlated evolution of two or more phenotypic traits on a phylogeny. In many cases, it may be sufficient to assume a constant value for the evolutionary correlation between characters across all the clades and branches of the tree. Under other circumstances, however, it is desirable or necessary to account for the possibility that the evolutionary correlation differs through time or in different sections of the phylogeny. Here, we present a method designed to fit a hierarchical series of models for heterogeneity in the evolutionary rates and correlation of two quantitative traits on a phylogenetic tree. We apply the method to two datasets: one for different attributes of the buccal morphology in sunfishes (Centrarchidae); and a second for overall body length and relative body depth in rock- and non-rock-dwelling South American iguanian lizards. We also examine the performance of the method for parameter estimation and model selection using a small set of numerical simulations.

Testing for genetic assimilation with phylogenetic comparative analysis: Conceptual, methodological, and statistical considerations.

Genetic assimilation is a process that leads to reduced phenotypic plasticity during adaptation to novel conditions, a potentially important phenomenon under global environmental change. Null expectations when testing for genetic assimilation, however, are not always clear. For instance, the statistical artifact of regression to the mean could bias us toward detecting genetic assimilation when it has not occurred. Likewise, the specific mechanism underlying plasticity expression may affect null expectations under neutral evolution. We used macroevolutionary numerical simulations to examine both of these important issues and their interaction, varying whether plasticity evolves, the evolutionary mechanism, trait measurement error, and experimental design. We also modified an existing reaction norm correction method to account for phylogenetic nonindependence. We found (1) regression to the mean is pervasive and can generate spurious support for genetic assimilation; (2) experimental design and post hoc correction can minimize this spurious effect; and (3) neutral evolution can produce patterns consistent with genetic assimilation without constraint or selection, depending on the mechanism of plasticity expression. Additionally, we reanalyzed published macroevolutionary data supporting genetic assimilation, and found that support was reduced after proper correction. Considerable caution is thus required whenever investigating genetic assimilation and reaction norm evolution at macroevolutionary scales.

Mesozoic origin of coleoid cephalopods and their abrupt shifts of diversification patterns.

Coleoids are the most diverse group of cephalopod mollusks. While their origin is date during the Mesozoic, the diversification pattern is unknown. However, two hypotheses have been proposed. The first suggests an increasing diversification rate after the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event (K-Pg) as consequence of empty habitats left by the ammonites and belemnites. The second hypothesis proposes a mid-Cenozoic increase in diversification rate related to distributional changes during ice ages and biotic interactions. To test these hypotheses, we estimated a lineage through time (LTT) and the gamma-statistic along with model-based diversification rates. These analyses were conducted on a dated molecular phylogeny for coleoids that we reconstructed using five molecular markers (cytochrome b, 16S rRNA, cytochrome oxidase I, rhodopsin, and PAX-6). Our divergence time estimation suggests that coleoids originated in the Mesozoic Era (Middle Triassic) and that both main clades (Decapodiformes and Octopodiformes) diverged in the Cretaceous/Jurassic Period. The LTT, gamma statistic, and diversification rates inferred with the Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures (BAMM), indicate an acceleration in diversification rate over time since the origin of coleoids. Additionally, BAMM allowed us to detect abrupt increases in diversification rate before and after the K-Pg boundary. Our results partially support both hypotheses as all analyses indicate that the coleoid diversification rate was increasing during the Cenozoic. However, our results also indicate increasing diversification rates before the K-Pg boundary. We propose that the radiation of coleoids has been shaped by an acceleration in diversification rate over time, including exceptional episodes of abrupt increases before and after the K-Pg boundary.

Early giant reveals faster evolution of large body size in ichthyosaurs than in cetaceans.

Body sizes of marine amniotes span six orders of magnitude, yet the factors that governed the evolution of this diversity are largely unknown. High primary production of modern oceans is considered a prerequisite for the emergence of cetacean giants, but that condition cannot explain gigantism in Triassic ichthyosaurs. We describe the new giant ichthyosaur Cymbospondylus youngorum sp. nov. with a 2-meter-long skull from the Middle Triassic Fossil Hill Fauna of Nevada, USA, underscoring rapid size evolution despite the absence of many modern primary producers. Surprisingly, the Fossil Hill Fauna rivaled the composition of modern marine mammal faunas in terms of size range, and energy-flux models suggest that Middle Triassic marine food webs were able to support several large-bodied ichthyosaurs at high trophic levels, shortly after ichthyosaur origins.

covid19.Explorer: a web application and R package to explore United States COVID-19 data.

Appearing at the end of 2019, a novel virus (later identified as SARS-CoV-2) was characterized in the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. As of the time of writing, the disease caused by this virus (known as COVID-19) has already resulted in over three million deaths worldwide. SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths, however, have been highly unevenly distributed among age groups, sexes, countries, and jurisdictions over the course of the pandemic. Herein, I present a tool (the covid19.Explorer R package and web application) that has been designed to explore and analyze publicly available United States COVID-19 infection and death data from the 2020/21 U.S. SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The analyses and visualizations that this R package and web application facilitate can help users better comprehend the geographic progress of the pandemic, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as lockdowns and other measures, which have varied widely among U.S. states), and the relative risks posed by COVID-19 to different age groups within the U.S. population. The end result is an interactive tool that will help its users develop an improved understanding of the temporal and geographic dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, accessible to lay people and scientists alike.

A variable-rate quantitative trait evolution model using penalized-likelihood.

In recent years it has become increasingly popular to use phylogenetic comparative methods to investigate heterogeneity in the rate or process of quantitative trait evolution across the branches or clades of a phylogenetic tree. Here, I present a new method for modeling variability in the rate of evolution of a continuously-valued character trait on a reconstructed phylogeny. The underlying model of evolution is stochastic diffusion (Brownian motion), but in which the instantaneous diffusion rate (σ2) also evolves by Brownian motion on a logarithmic scale. Unfortunately, it's not possible to simultaneously estimate the rates of evolution along each edge of the tree and the rate of evolution of σ2 itself using Maximum Likelihood. As such, I propose a penalized-likelihood method in which the penalty term is equal to the log-transformed probability density of the rates under a Brownian model, multiplied by a 'smoothing' coefficient, λ, selected by the user. λ determines the magnitude of penalty that's applied to rate variation between edges. Lower values of λ penalize rate variation relatively little; whereas larger λ values result in minimal rate variation among edges of the tree in the fitted model, eventually converging on a single value of σ2 for all of the branches of the tree. In addition to presenting this model here, I have also implemented it as part of my phytools R package in the function multirateBM. Using different values of the penalty coefficient, λ, I fit the model to simulated data with: Brownian rate variation among edges (the model assumption); uncorrelated rate variation; rate changes that occur in discrete places on the tree; and no rate variation at all among the branches of the phylogeny. I then compare the estimated values of σ2 to their known true values. In addition, I use the method to analyze a simple empirical dataset of body mass evolution in mammals. Finally, I discuss the relationship between the method of this article and other models from the phylogenetic comparative methods and finance literature, as well as some applications and limitations of the approach.

Phylogenetic signal and evolutionary correlates of urban tolerance in a widespread neotropical lizard clade.

Urbanization is intensifying worldwide, and while some species tolerate and even exploit urban environments, many others are excluded entirely from this new habitat. Understanding the factors that underlie tolerance of urbanization is thus of rapidly growing importance. Here, we examine urban tolerance across a diverse group of lizards: Caribbean members of the neotropical genus Anolis. Our analyses reveal that urban tolerance has strong phylogenetic signal, suggesting that closely related species tend to respond similarly to urban environments. We propose that this characteristic of urban tolerance in anoles may be used to forecast the possible responses of species to increasing urbanization. In addition, we identified several key ecological and morphological traits that tend to be associated with tolerance in Anolis. Specifically, species experiencing hot and dry conditions in their natural environment and those that maintain higher body temperatures tend to have greater tolerance of urban habitats. We also found that tolerance of urbanization is positively associated with toepad lamella number and negatively associated with ventral scale density and relative hindlimb length. The identification of factors that predispose a species to be more or less urban tolerant can provide a starting point for conservation and sustainable development in our increasingly urbanized world.

Phylogeographic and phenotypic outcomes of brown anole colonization across the Caribbean provide insight into the beginning stages of an adaptive radiation.

Some of the most important insights into the ecological and evolutionary processes of diversification and speciation have come from studies of island adaptive radiations, yet relatively little research has examined how these radiations initiate. We suggest that Anolis sagrei is a candidate for understanding the origins of the Caribbean Anolis adaptive radiation and how a colonizing anole species begins to undergo allopatric diversification, phenotypic divergence and, potentially, speciation. We undertook a genomic and morphological analysis of representative populations across the entire native range of A. sagrei, finding that the species originated in the early Pliocene, with the deepest divergence occurring between western and eastern Cuba. Lineages from these two regions subsequently colonized the northern Caribbean. We find that at the broadest scale, populations colonizing areas with fewer closely related competitors tend to evolve larger body size and more lamellae on their toepads. This trend follows expectations for post-colonization divergence from progenitors and convergence in allopatry, whereby populations freed from competition with close relatives evolve towards common morphological and ecological optima. Taken together, our results show a complex history of ancient and recent Cuban diaspora with populations on competitor-poor islands evolving away from their ancestral Cuban populations regardless of their phylogenetic relationships, thus providing insight into the original diversification of colonist anoles at the beginning of the radiation. Our research also supplies an evolutionary framework for the many studies of this increasingly important species in ecological and evolutionary research.

learnPopGen: An R package for population genetic simulation and numerical analysis.

Here, I briefly present a new R package called learnPopGen that has been designed primarily for the purposes of teaching evolutionary biology, population genetics, and evolutionary theory. Functions of the package can be used to conduct simulations and numerical analyses of a wide range of evolutionary phenomena that would typically be covered in advanced undergraduate through graduate-level curricula in population genetics or evolution. For instance, learnPopGen functions can be used to visualize gene frequency changes through time under multiple deterministic and stochastic processes, to compute and animate the changes in phenotypic trait values or distributions under natural selection, to numerically analyze and graph the outcome of simple game theory models, and to plot coalescence within a population experiencing genetic drift, along with a number of other things. Functions have been designed to be maximally didactic and frequently employ compelling animated visualizations. Furthermore, it is straightforward to export plots and animations from R in the form of flat or animated graphics, or as videos. For maximum flexibility, students working with the package can run functions directly in R; however, instructors may choose to guide students less adept in the R environment to one of various web interfaces that I have built for a number of the functions of the package and that are already available online.

Correlated evolution of flower size and seed number in flowering plants (monocotyledons).

Background and Aims: Kin selection theory predicts that a parent may minimize deleterious effects of competition among seeds developing within ovaries by increasing the genetic relatedness of seeds within an ovary. Alternatively, the number of developing seeds could be reduced to one or a few. It has also been suggested that single or few seeded fruits may be correlated with small flowers, and multi-ovulate ovaries or many seeded fruits may be associated with large flowers with specialized pollination mechanisms. We examined the correlation between flower size and seed number in 69 families of monocotyledons to assess if correlations are significant and independent of phylogeny. Methods: We first examined the effect of phylogenetic history on the evolution of these two traits, flower size and seed number, and then mapped correlations between them on the latest phylogenetic tree of monocotyledons. Results: The results provide phylogenetically robust evidence of strong correlated evolution between flower size and seed number and show that correlated evolution of traits is not constrained by phylogenetic history of taxa. Moreover, the two character combinations, small flowers and a single or few seeds per fruit, and large flowers and many seeded fruits, have persisted in monocotyledons longer than other trait combinations. Conclusions: The analyses support the suggestion that most angiosperms may fall into two categories, one with large flowers and many seeded fruits and the other with small flowers and single or few seeded fruits, and kin selection within ovaries may explain the observed patterns.

Comparing the rates of speciation and extinction between phylogenetic trees.

Over the past decade or so it has become increasingly popular to use reconstructed evolutionary trees to investigate questions about the rates of speciation and extinction. Although the methodology of this field has grown substantially in its sophistication in recent years, here I will take a step back to present a very simple model that is designed to investigate the relatively straightforward question of whether the tempo of diversification (speciation and extinction) differs between two or more phylogenetic trees, without attempting to attribute a causal basis to this difference. It is a likelihood method, and I demonstrate that it generally shows type I error that is close to the nominal level. I also demonstrate that parameter estimates obtained with this approach are largely unbiased. As this method can be used to compare trees of unknown relationship, it will be particularly well-suited to problems in which a difference in diversification rate between clades is suspected, but in which these clades are not particularly closely related. As diversification methods can easily take into account an incomplete sampling fraction, but missing lineages are assumed to be missing at random, this method is also appropriate for cases in which we have hypothesized a difference in the process of diversification between two or more focal clades, but in which many unsampled groups separate the few of interest. The method of this study is by no means an attempt to replace more sophisticated models in which, for instance, diversification depends on the state of an observed or unobserved discrete or continuous trait. Rather, my intention is to provide a complementary approach for circumstances in which a simpler hypothesis is warranted and of biological interest.

Linking locomotor performance to morphological shifts in urban lizards.

Urban habitats are drastically modified from their natural state, creating unique challenges and selection pressures for organisms that reside in them. We compared locomotor performance of Anolis lizards from urban and forest habitats on tracks differing in angle and substrate, and found that using artificial substrates came at a cost: lizards ran substantially slower and frequently lost traction on man-made surfaces compared to bark. We found that various morphological traits were positively correlated with sprint speed and that these same traits were significantly larger in urban compared to forest lizards. We found that urban lizards ran faster on both man-made and natural surfaces, suggesting similar mechanisms improve locomotor performance on both classes of substrate. Thus, lizards in urban areas may be under selection to run faster on all flat surfaces, while forest lizards face competing demands of running, jumping and clinging to narrow perches. Novel locomotor challenges posed by urban habitats likely have fitness consequences for lizards that cannot effectively use man-made surfaces, providing a mechanistic basis for observed phenotypic shifts in urban populations of this species.

Divergent habitat use of two urban lizard species.

Faunal responses to anthropogenic habitat modification represent an important aspect of global change. In Puerto Rico, two species of arboreal lizard, Anolis cristatellus and A. stratulus, are commonly encountered in urban areas, yet seem to use the urban habitat in different ways. In this study, we quantified differences in habitat use between these two species in an urban setting. For each species, we measured habitat use and preference, and the niche space of each taxon, with respect to manmade features of the urban environment. To measure niche space of these species in an urban environment, we collected data from a total of six urban sites across four different municipalities on the island of Puerto Rico. We quantified relative abundance of both species, their habitat use, and the available habitat in the environment to measure both microhabitat preference in an urban setting, as well as niche partitioning between the two different lizards. Overall, we found that the two species utilize different portions of the urban habitat. Anolis stratulus tends to use more "natural" portions of the urban environment (i.e., trees and other cultivated vegetation), whereas A. cristatellus more frequently uses anthropogenic structures. We also found that aspects of habitat discrimination in urban areas mirror a pattern measured in prior studies for forested sites in which A. stratulus was found to perch higher than A. cristatellus and preferred lower temperatures and greater canopy cover. In our study, we found that the multivariate niche space occupied by A. stratulus did not differ from the available niche space in natural portions of the urban environment and in turn represented a subset of the niche space occupied by A. cristatellus. The unique niche space occupied by A. cristatellus corresponds to manmade aspects of the urban environment generally not utilized by A. stratulus. Our results demonstrate that some species are merely tolerant of urbanization while others utilize urban habitats in novel ways. This finding has implications for long-term persistence in urban habitats and suggests that loss of natural habitat elements may lead to nonrandom species extirpations as urbanization intensifies.

Genome-wide interrogation advances resolution of recalcitrant groups in the tree of life.

Much progress has been achieved in disentangling evolutionary relationships among species in the tree of life, but some taxonomic groups remain difficult to resolve despite increasing availability of genome-scale data sets. Here we present a practical approach to studying ancient divergences in the face of high levels of conflict, based on explicit gene genealogy interrogation (GGI). We show its efficacy in resolving the controversial relationships within the largest freshwater fish radiation (Otophysi) based on newly generated DNA sequences for 1,051 loci from 225 species. Initial results using a suite of standard methodologies revealed conflicting phylogenetic signal, which supports ten alternative evolutionary histories among early otophysan lineages. By contrast, GGI revealed that the vast majority of gene genealogies supports a single tree topology grounded on morphology that was not obtained by previous molecular studies. We also reanalysed published data sets for exemplary groups with recalcitrant resolution to assess the power of this approach. GGI supports the notion that ctenophores are the earliest-branching animal lineage, and adds insight into relationships within clades of yeasts, birds and mammals. GGI opens up a promising avenue to account for incompatible signals in large data sets and to discern between estimation error and actual biological conflict explaining gene tree discordance.

Ecological specialization and morphological diversification in Greater Antillean boas.

Colonization of islands can dramatically influence the evolutionary trajectories of organisms, with both deterministic and stochastic processes driving adaptation and diversification. Some island colonists evolve extremely large or small body sizes, presumably in response to unique ecological circumstances present on islands. One example of this phenomenon, the Greater Antillean boas, includes both small (<90 cm) and large (4 m) species occurring on the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, with some islands supporting pairs or trios of body-size divergent species. These boas have been shown to comprise a monophyletic radiation arising from a Miocene dispersal event to the Greater Antilles, though it is not known whether co-occurrence of small and large species is a result of dispersal or in situ evolution. Here, we provide the first comprehensive species phylogeny for this clade combined with morphometric and ecological data to show that small body size evolved repeatedly on separate islands in association with specialization in substrate use. Our results further suggest that microhabitat specialization is linked to increased rates of head shape diversification among specialists. Our findings show that ecological specialization following island colonization promotes morphological diversity through deterministic body size evolution and cranial morphological diversification that is contingent on island- and species-specific factors.

Phenotypic shifts in urban areas in the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus.

Urbanization is an increasingly important dimension of global change, and urban areas likely impose significant natural selection on the species that reside within them. Although many species of plants and animals can survive in urban areas, so far relatively little research has investigated whether such populations have adapted (in an evolutionary sense) to their newfound milieu. Even less of this work has taken place in tropical regions, many of which have experienced dramatic growth and intensification of urbanization in recent decades. In the present study, we focus on the neotropical lizard, Anolis cristatellus. We tested whether lizard ecology and morphology differ between urban and natural areas in three of the most populous municipalities on the island of Puerto Rico. We found that environmental conditions including temperature, humidity, and substrate availability differ dramatically between neighboring urban and natural areas. We also found that lizards in urban areas use artificial substrates a large proportion of the time, and that these substrates tend to be broader than substrates in natural forest. Finally, our morphological data showed that lizards in urban areas have longer limbs relative to their body size, as well as more subdigital scales called lamellae, when compared to lizards from nearby forested habitats. This shift in phenotype is exactly in the direction predicted based on habitat differences between our urban and natural study sites, combined with our results on how substrates are being used by lizards in these areas. Findings from a common-garden rearing experiment using individuals from one of our three pairs of populations provide evidence that trait differences between urban and natural sites may be genetically based. Taken together, our data suggest that anoles in urban areas are under significant differential natural selection and may be evolutionarily adapting to their human-modified environments.

Placing cryptic, recently extinct, or hypothesized taxa into an ultrametric phylogeny using continuous character data: a case study with the lizard Anolis roosevelti.

In recent years, enormous effort and investment has been put into assembling the tree of life: a phylogenetic history for all species on Earth. Overwhelmingly, this progress toward building an ever increasingly complete phylogeny of living things has been accomplished through sophisticated analysis of molecular data. In the modern genomic age, molecular genetic data have become very easy and inexpensive to obtain for many species. However, some lineages are poorly represented in or absent from tissue collections, or are unavailable for molecular analysis for other reasons such as restrictive biological sample export laws. Other species went extinct recently and are only available in formalin museum preparations or perhaps even as subfossils. In this brief communication we present a new method for placing cryptic, recently extinct, or hypothesized taxa into an ultrametric phylogeny of extant taxa using continuous character data. This method is based on a relatively simple modification of an established maximum likelihood (ML) method for phylogeny inference from continuous traits. We show that the method works well on simulated trees and data. We then apply it to the case of placing the Culebra Island Giant Anole (Anolis roosevelti) into a phylogeny of Caribbean anoles. Anolis roosevelti is a "crown-giant" ecomorph anole hypothesized to have once been found throughout the Spanish, United States, and British Virgin Islands, but that has not been encountered or collected since the 1930s. Although this species is widely thought to be closely related to the Puerto Rican giant anole, A. cuvieri, our ML method actually places A. roosevelti in a different part of the tree and closely related to a clade of morphologically similar species. We are unable, however, to reject a phylogenetic position for A. roosevelti that places it as sister taxon to A. cuvieri; although close relationship with the remainder of Puerto Rican anole species is strongly rejected by our method.