Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Risk Assessment Model for Cancer-Associated Thrombosis in Two Unique US Health Care Systems.

PURPOSE: Venous thromboembolism (VTE), especially pulmonary embolism (PE) and lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (LE-DVT), is a serious and potentially preventable complication for patients with cancer undergoing systemic therapy. METHODS: Using retrospective data from patients diagnosed with incident cancer from 2011-2020, we derived a parsimonious risk assessment model (RAM) using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression from the Harris Health System (HHS, n = 9,769) and externally validated it using the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system (n = 79,517). Bootstrapped c statistics and calibration curves were used to assess external model discrimination and fit. Dichotomized risk strata using integer scores were created and compared against the Khorana score (KS). RESULTS: Incident VTE and PE/LE-DVT at 6 months occurred in 590 (6.2%) and 437 (4.6%) patients in HHS and 4,027 (5.1%) and 3,331 (4.2%) patients in the VA health care system. Assessed at the time of systemic therapy initiation, the new RAM included components of the KS with the modified cancer subtype, cancer staging, systemic therapy class, history of VTE, history of paralysis/immobility, recent hospitalization, and Asian/Pacific Islander race. The c statistic was 0.71 in HHS and 0.68 in the VA health care system (compared with 0.65 and 0.60, respectively, for KS). Furthermore, the new RAM appropriately reclassified 28% of patients and increased the proportion of VTEs in the high-risk group from 37% to 68% in the validation data set. CONCLUSION: The novel RAM stratified patients with cancer into a high-risk group with 8%-10% cumulative incidence of VTE and 7% PE/LE-DVT at 6 months (v 3% and 2%, respectively, in the low-risk group). The model had improved performance over the original KS and doubled the number of VTE events in the high-risk stratum. We encourage additional external validation from prospective studies.[Media: see text].

Patterns of venous thromboembolism risk, treatment, and outcomes among patients with cancer from uninsured and vulnerable populations.

The epidemiology of cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) among uninsured and vulnerable populations in the US is not well-characterized. We performed a retrospective cohort study for patients with newly diagnosed cancer from 2011 to 2020 at Harris Health System, which cares for uninsured residents in the Houston metropolitan area. Patient demographics, NCI comorbidity index, area of deprivation index (ADI), cancer histology, staging, and systemic therapy data were extracted. CAT included overall venous thromboembolism (VTE) or pulmonary embolism +/- lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (PE/LE-DVT) within 1 year of diagnosis. We used multivariable Fine-Gray models to assess the associations with CAT accounting for death as a competing risk. Among 15 342 patients, 74% were uninsured and 84% lived in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. There were 16% Non-Hispanic White (NHW), 28% Non-Hispanic Black (NHB), 50% Hispanic (27% Mexican), and 6% Asian/Pacific Islanders (API). The 1-year CAT incidence rate was 14.6%. Overall VTE was lower for Hispanics versus NHW (SHR 0.87 [0.76-0.99]) and API versus NHW (SHR 0.58 [0.44-0.77]). PE/LE-DVT was higher for NHB versus NHW (SHR 1.18 [1.01-1.39]). CAT was also associated with chemotherapy-based regimens (+/- immunotherapy), age, obesity, cancer type/staging, VTE history, and recent hospitalization. NCI comorbidity and ADI scores were associated with mortality but not CAT. In a large cohort of underserved patients with cancer, we identified an elevated incidence of CAT with known and novel risk predictors. Hispanics had lower adjusted rates of CAT and mortality. Our findings highlight the need to investigate and incorporate vulnerable populations in clinical trials.