Dynamic prediction of renal survival among deeply phenotyped kidney transplant recipients using artificial intelligence: an observational, international, multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Kidney allograft failure is a common cause of end-stage renal disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic artificial intelligence approach to enhance risk stratification for kidney transplant recipients by generating continuously refined predictions of survival using updates of clinical data. METHODS: In this observational study, we used data from adult recipients of kidney transplants from 18 academic transplant centres in Europe, the USA, and South America, and a cohort of patients from six randomised controlled trials. The development cohort comprised patients from four centres in France, with all other patients included in external validation cohorts. To build deeply phenotyped cohorts of transplant recipients, the following data were collected in the development cohort: clinical, histological, immunological variables, and repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria (measured using the proteinuria to creatininuria ratio). To develop a dynamic prediction system based on these clinical assessments and repeated measurements, we used a Bayesian joint models-an artificial intelligence approach. The prediction performances of the model were assessed via discrimination, through calculation of the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04258891. FINDINGS: 13 608 patients were included (3774 in the development cohort and 9834 in the external validation cohorts) and contributed 89 328 patient-years of data, and 416 510 eGFR and proteinuria measurements. Bayesian joint models showed that recipient immunological profile, allograft interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy, allograft inflammation, and repeated measurements of eGFR and proteinuria were independent risk factors for allograft survival. The final model showed accurate calibration and very high discrimination in the development cohort (overall dynamic AUC 0·857 [95% CI 0·847-0·866]) with a persistent improvement in AUCs for each new repeated measurement (from 0·780 [0·768-0·794] to 0·926 [0·917-0·932]; p<0·0001). The predictive performance was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from Europe (overall AUC 0·845 [0·837-0·854]), the USA (overall AUC 0·820 [0·808-0·831]), South America (overall AUC 0·868 [0·856-0·880]), and the cohort of patients from randomised controlled trials (overall AUC 0·857 [0·840-0·875]). INTERPRETATION: Because of its dynamic design, this model can be continuously updated and holds value as a bedside tool that could refine the prognostic judgements of clinicians in everyday practice, hence enhancing precision medicine in the transplant setting. FUNDING: MSD Avenir, French National Institute for Health and Medical Research, and Bettencourt Schueller Foundation.

Most common oral alterations in the elderly--a review.

The population of Brazil is experiencing a fast and progressive aging process. Oral mucosa, which has a function as a barrier, is compromised by the aging process, allowing the action of predisposing agents. The older the population, the greater is the prevalence of lesions in oral mucosa. The causes may be neoplastic, infectious, bone pathologies, oral manifestations of systemic diseases, nutritional deficiencies, dental prostheses, medicaments, and bullous diseases, among others. Examination of the oral cavity should be carried out as an annual routine, and as a preventive measure for the entire elderly population, in order to reduce the morbidity and mortality from these diseases.

Physiologic alterations of oral mucosa due to aging: a review.

The Brazilian population, despite Brazil being considered a "country of young people", is undergoing an aging process entailed by a decline in the fertility and mortality rates. In the year 2000, seniors accounted for about 5.85% of the Brazilian, and population projections for 2025 estimate that the group will reach 14% by that time. Oral mucosa has a function of providing a barrier and promoting immune and inflammatory responses, thus protecting the body. During the aging process, those functions deteriorate, allowing the action of predisposing agents. There is thus the need of better knowledge of the conditions of oral health in the Brazilian population, allowing for adoption of preventive measures. Oral cavity examination should be routinely performed in the elderly on a yearly basis, as a preventive measure which would reduce the morbidity and mortality in this population.

Cardio-facio-cutaneous syndrome: a case report.

Cardio-facio-cutaneous syndrome is a genetic disorder with a characteristic facies, abnormal skin and hair, mental retardation and congenital heart disease. It may be confused with Noonan's syndrome, which has a familial pattern and does not present hyperkeratotic skin lesions and abnormal hair, and there are few cases reported in the literature. We describe the first case of typical cardio-facio-cutaneous syndrome observed in Brazil.

Lesion of a lower lip scar--an initial presentation of sarcoidosis.

The development of sarcoidosis at the site of previous scar is unusual and may be the first sign of systemic disease. Sarcoidosis on a lower lip scar persisting for 13 years, which pointed to examination for internal manifestations, is presented along with a review of the subject