Cholecystectomies performed in children by pediatric surgeons compared to general surgeons in North Carolina are associated with higher institutional charges.

INTRODUCTION: The delivery of pediatric surgical care for gallbladder (GB) and biliary disease involves both General Surgeons (GS) and Pediatric Surgeons (PS). There is a lack of data describing how surgeon specialty impacts practice patterns and healthcare charges. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of the North Carolina Inpatient Hospital Discharge Database (2013-2017) on pediatric patients (≤18 years) undergoing surgery for biliary pathology. We performed multivariate linear regression comparing surgeons with surgical charge. RESULTS: 12,531 patients had GB or biliary pathology and 4023 (32.1%) had cholecystectomies. The most common procedure for PS and GS was cholecystectomy for cholecystitis (n = 509, 54.0% and n = 2275, 76.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. The hospital ($26,605, IQR $18,955-37,249, vs. $17,451, IQR $13,246-23,478, p < 0.001) and surgical charges ($15,465, IQR $12,233-22,203, vs. $10,338, IQR $6837-14,952, p < 0.001) were higher for PS than GS. Controlling for pertinent variables, surgical charges for PS were $4192 higher than for GS (95% CI: $2162-6122). CONCLUSION: The cholecystectomy charge differential between PS and GS is significant and persisted after controlling for pertinent covariates.

The Supply and Distribution of the Preventive Medicine Physician Workforce.

CONTEXT: Preventive medicine physicians work at the intersection of clinical medicine and public health. A previous report on the state of the preventive medicine workforce in 2000 revealed an ongoing decline in preventive medicine physicians and residents, but there have been few updates since. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to describe trends in both the number of board-certified preventive medicine physicians and those physicians who self-designate preventive medicine as a primary or secondary specialty and examine the age, gender distribution, and geographic distribution of this workforce. DESIGN: Analysis of the supply of preventive medicine physicians using data derived from board certification files of the American Board of Preventive Medicine and self-designation data from the American Medical Association Masterfile. SETTING: The 50 US states and District of Columbia. PARTICIPANTS: Board-certified and self-designated preventive medicine physicians in the United States. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number, demographics, and location of preventive medicine physicians in United States. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2018, the total number of physicians board certified in preventive medicine increased from 6091 to 9270; the number of self-identified preventive medicine physicians has generally decreased since 2000, with a leveling off in the past 4 years matching the trend of preventive medicine physicians per 100 000 population; there is a recent increase in women in the specialty; the practice locations of preventive medicine physicians do not match the US population in rural or micropolitan areas; and the average age of preventive medicine physicians is increasing. CONCLUSIONS: The number of preventive medicine physicians is not likely to match population needs in the United States in the near term and beyond. Assessing the preventive medicine physician workforce in the United States is complicated by difficulties in defining the specialty and because less than half of self-designated preventive medicine physicians hold a board certification in the specialty.

Using State Licensure Data to Assess North Carolina's Health Workforce COVID-19 Response Capacity.

BACKGROUND In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, health care decision-makers in North Carolina needed information about the available health workforce in order to conduct workforce surge planning and to anticipate concerns about professional or geographic workforce shortages.METHOD Descriptive and cartographic analyses were conducted using licensure data held by the North Carolina Health Professions Data System to assess the supply of respiratory therapists, nurses, and critical care physicians in North Carolina. Licensure data were merged with population data and numbers of intensive care unit (ICU) beds drawn from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Healthcare Cost Report Information System (HCRIS).RESULTS The pandemic highlighted how critical data infrastructure is to public health infrastructure. Respiratory therapists and acute care, emergency, and critical care nurses were diffused broadly throughout the state, with higher concentrations in urban areas. Critical care physicians were primarily based in areas with academic health centers.LIMITATIONS Data were unavailable to capture the rapid changes in supply due to clinicians reentering or exiting the workforce. County-level analyses did not reflect individual, facility-level supply, which was needed to plan organizational responses.CONCLUSIONS Health care decision-makers in North Carolina were able to access information about the supply of clinicians critical to caring for COVID-19 patients due to the state's long-standing investments in health workforce data infrastructure. Ability to respond was made easier due to strong working relationships between the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, the North Carolina Area Health Education Centers Program, the health professional licensure boards, and state government health care agencies.

Measuring the migration of surgical specialists.

BACKGROUND: The lack of access to essential surgical care in low-income countries is aggravated by emigration of locally-trained surgical specialists to more affluent regions. Yet, the global diaspora of surgeons, obstetricians, and anesthesiologists from low-income and middle-income countries has never been fully described and compared with those who have remained in their country of origin. It is also unclear whether the surgical workforce is more affected by international migration than other medical specialists. In this study, we aimed to quantify the proportion of surgical specialists originating from low-income and middle-income countries that currently work in high-income countries. METHODS: We retrieved surgical workforce data from 48 high-income countries and 102 low-income and middle-income countries using the database of the World Health Organization Global Surgical Workforce. We then compared this domestic workforce with more granular data on the country of initial medical qualification of all surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians made available for 14 selected high-income countries to calculate the proportion of surgical specialists working abroad. RESULTS: We identified 1,118,804 specialist surgeons, anesthesiologists, or obstetricians from 102 low-income and middle-income countries, of whom 33,021 (3.0%) worked in the 14 included high-income countries. The proportion of surgical specialists abroad was greatest for the African and South East Asian regions (12.8% and 12.1%). The proportion of specialists abroad was not greater for surgeons, anesthesiologists, or obstetricians than for physicians and other medical specialists (P = .465). Overall, the countries with the lowest remaining density of surgical specialists were also the countries from which the largest proportion of graduates were now working in high-income countries (P = .011). CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of all surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians from low-income and middle-income countries currently work in high-income countries. In addition to decreasing migration from areas of surgical need, innovative strategies to retain and strengthen the surgical workforce could involve engaging this large international pool of surgical specialists and instructors.

Future Supply of Pediatric Surgeons: Analytical Study of the Current and Projected Supply of Pediatric Surgeons in the Context of a Rapidly Changing Process for Specialty and Subspecialty Training.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the future supply and demand for pediatric surgeons using a physician supply model to determine what the future supply of pediatric surgeons will be over the next decade and a half and to compare that projected supply with potential indicators of demand and the growth of other subspecialties. BACKGROUND: Anticipating the supply of physicians and surgeons in the future has met with varying levels of success. However, there remains a need to anticipate supply given the rapid growth of specialty and subspecialty fellowships. This analysis is intended to support decision making on the size of future fellowships in pediatric surgery. METHODS: The model used in the study is an adaptation of the FutureDocs physician supply and need tool developed to anticipate future supply and need for all physician specialties. Data from national inventories of physicians by specialty, age, sex, activity, and location are combined with data from residency and fellowship programs and accrediting bodies in an agent-based or microsimulation projection model that considers movement into and among specialties. Exits from practice and the geographic distribution of physician and the patient population are also included in the model. Three scenarios for the annual entry into pediatric surgery fellowships (28, 34, and 56) are modeled and their effects on supply through 2030 are presented. RESULTS: The FutureDocs model predicts a very rapid growth of the supply of surgeons who treat pediatric patients-including general pediatric surgeon and focused subspecialties. The supply of all pediatric surgeons will grow relatively rapidly through 2030 under current conditions. That growth is much faster than the rate of growth of the pediatric population. The volume of complex surgical cases will likely match this population growth rate meaning there will be many more surgeons trained for those procedures. The current entry rate into pediatric surgery fellowships (34 per year) will result in a slowing of growth after 2025, a rate of 56 will generate a continued growth through 2030 with a likely plateau after 2035. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of entry into pediatric surgery will continue to exceed population growth through 2030 under two likely scenarios. The very rapid anticipated growth in focused pediatric subspecialties will likely prove challenging to surgeons wishing to maintain their skills with complex cases as a larger and more diverse group of surgeons will also seek to care for many of the conditions and patients which the general pediatric surgeons and general surgeons now see. This means controlling the numbers of pediatric surgery fellowships in a way that recognizes problems with distribution, the volume of cases available to maintain proficiency, and the dynamics of retirement and shifts into other specialty practice.

Building a Value-Based Workforce in North Carolina.

Health care in the United States is likely to change more in the next 10 years than in any previous decade. However, changes in the workforce needed to support new care delivery and payment models will likely be slower and less dramatic. In this issue of the NCMJ, experts from education, practice, and policy reflect on the "state of the state" and what the future holds for multiple health professional groups. They write from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines, but all point toward the need for change-change in the way we educate, deploy, and recruit health professionals. The rapid pace of health system change in North Carolina means that the road map is being redrawn as we drive, but some general routes are evident. In this issue brief we suggest that, to make the workforce more effective, we need to broaden our definition of who is in the health workforce; focus on retooling and retraining the existing workforce; shift from training workers in acute settings to training them in community-based settings; and increase accountability in the system so that public funds spent on the health professions produce the workforce needed to meet the state's health care needs. North Carolina has arguably the best health workforce data system in the country; it has historically provided the data needed to inform policy change, but adequate and ongoing financial support for that system needs to be assured.

First- and fifth-year medical students' intention for emigration and practice abroad: a case study of Serbia.

Health worker migration is causing profound health, safety, social, economic and political challenges to countries without special policies for health professionals' mobility. This study describes the prevalence of migration intentions among medical undergraduates, identifies underlying factors related to migration intention and describes subsequent actions in Serbia. Data were captured by survey of 938 medical students from Belgrade University (94% response rate), representing two thirds of matching students in Serbia stated their intentions, reasons and obstacles regarding work abroad. Statistical analyses included descriptive statistics and a sequential multivariate logistic regression. Based on descriptive and inferential statistics we were able to predict the profile of first and fifth year medical students who intend or have plans to work abroad. This study contributes to our understanding of the causes and correlates of intent to migrate and could serve to raise awareness and point to the valuable policy options to manage migration.

Reconfiguring health workforce policy so that education, training, and actual delivery of care are closely connected.

There is growing consensus that the health care workforce in the United States needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of a health care system that is being rapidly and permanently redesigned. Accountable care organizations and patient-centered medical homes, for instance, will greatly alter the mix of caregivers needed and create new roles for existing health care workers. The focus of health system innovation, however, has largely been on reorganizing care delivery processes, reengineering workflows, and adopting electronic technology to improve outcomes. Little attention has been paid to training workers to adapt to these systems and deliver patient care in ever more coordinated systems, such as integrated health care networks that harmonize primary care with acute inpatient and postacute long-term care. This article highlights how neither regulatory policies nor market forces are keeping up with a rapidly changing delivery system and argues that training and education should be connected more closely to the actual delivery of care.

The migration of physicians and the local supply of practitioners: a five-year comparison.

PURPOSE: The overall distribution of physicians in the United States is uneven, with concentrations in urban areas while some rural places have proportionately very few. This report examines the movement of physicians who have completed their training and choose to move from one location to another. METHOD: The analysis linked the locations of practice of physicians practicing in the 50 U.S. states in 2006 and 2011 using data from the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Age, gender, location practice, activity status, and specialty were included in the data. Physicians who changed address in the five-year period were identified and were compared with nonmovers using descriptive statistics. A summary logistic regression of movers compared with nonmovers was performed to assess the most important correlates of migration. RESULTS: The overall rate of county-to-county relocation for physicians was 19.8% for the five-year period 2006-2011. Analyses indicated that older, male, and urban physicians were less likely to move; that physicians with osteopathic training were more likely to move; and that surgeons and primary care physicians were less likely to move compared with other specialists. CONCLUSIONS: The physician workforce in the United States migrates from place to place, and this movement determines the local supply of practitioners at any given time. Programs that intend to influence the local supply of doctors should account for this background tendency to relocate practice in order to achieve goals of more equal geographic distribution.

The role of academic health centers and their partners in reconfiguring and retooling the existing workforce to practice in a transformed health system.

Inspired by the Affordable Care Act and health care payment models that reward value over volume, health care delivery systems are redefining the work of the health professionals they employ. Existing workers are taking on new roles, new types of health professionals are emerging, and the health workforce is shifting from practicing in higher-cost acute settings to lower-cost community settings, including patients' homes. The authors believe that although the pace of health system transformation has accelerated, a shortage of workers trained to function in the new models of care is hampering progress. In this Perspective, they argue that urgent attention must be paid to retraining the 18 million workers already employed in the system who will actually implement system change.Their view is shaped by work they have conducted in helping practices transform care, by extensive consultations with stakeholders attempting to understand the workforce implications of health system redesign, and by a thorough review of the peer-reviewed and gray literature. Through this work, the authors have become increasingly convinced that academic health centers (AHCs)-organizations at the forefront of innovations in health care delivery and health workforce training-are uniquely situated to proactively lead efforts to retrain the existing workforce. They recommend a set of specific actions (i.e., discovering and disseminating best practices; developing new partnerships; focusing on systems engineering approaches; planning for sustainability; and revising credentialing, accreditation, and continuing education) that AHC leaders can undertake to develop a more coherent workforce development strategy that supports practice transformation.

How the Affordable Care Act will affect access to health care in North Carolina.

Reforming health care in the United States often focuses on improving access to care by removing financial barriers and bringing practitioners closer to patients. This article reviews the provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) that are intended to improve access and discusses how the ACA will change access to care for Americans.

The impact of Assertive Community Treatment on utilization of primary care and other outpatient health services: the North Carolina experience.

BACKGROUND: A number of states have implemented Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) teams statewide. The extent to which team-based care in ACT programs substitutes or complements primary care and other types of health services is relatively unknown outside of clinical trials. OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether investments in ACT yield savings in primary care and other outpatient health services. DESIGN: Patterns of medical and mental health service use and costs were examined using Medicaid claims files from 2000 to 2002 in North Carolina. Two-part models and negative binomial models compared individuals on ACT (n = 1,065 distinct individuals) with two control groups of Medicaid enrollees with severe mental illness not receiving ACT services (n = 1,426 and n = 41,717 distinct individuals). RESULTS: We found no evidence that ACT affected utilization of other outpatient health services or primary care; however, ACT was associated with a decrease in other outpatient health expenditures (excluding ACT) through a reduction in the intensity with which these services were used. Consistent with prior literature, ACT also decreased the likelihood of emergency room visits and inpatient psychiatric stays. CONCLUSIONS: Given the increasing emphasis and efforts toward integrating physical health and behavioral health care, it is likely that ACT will continue to be challenged to meet the physical health needs of its consumers. To improve primary care receipt, this may mean a departure from traditional staffing patterns (e.g., the addition of a primary care doctor and nurse) and expansion of the direct services ACT provides to incorporate physical health treatments.

When patients govern: federal grant funding and uncompensated care at federally qualified health centers.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the proportion of consumers on federally qualified health center (FQHC) governing boards is associated with their use of federal grant funds to provide uncompensated care. METHODS: Using FQHC data from the Uniform Data System, county-level data from the Area Resource File and governing board data from FQHC grant applications, the uncompensated care an FQHC provides relative to the amount of its federal funding is modeled as a function of board and executive committee composition using fixed-effects regression with FQHC and county-level controls. RESULTS: Consumer governance does not predict how much uncompensated care an FQHC provides relative to the size of its federal grant. Rather, the proportion of an FQHC's patient-mix that is uninsured drives uncompensated care provision. CONCLUSIONS: Aside from a small executive committee effect, consumer governance does not influence FQHCs' provision of uncompensated care. More work is needed to understand the role of consumer governance.

Developing a research agenda for cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk rural communities.

The National Institutes of Health convened a workshop to engage researchers and practitioners in dialogue on research issues viewed as either unique or of particular relevance to rural areas, key content areas needed to inform policy and practice in rural settings, and ways rural contexts may influence study design, implementation, assessment of outcomes, and dissemination. Our purpose was to develop a research agenda to address the disproportionate burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related risk factors among populations living in rural areas. Complementary presentations used theoretical and methodological principles to describe research and practice examples from rural settings. Participants created a comprehensive CVD research agenda that identified themes and challenges, and provided 21 recommendations to guide research, practice, and programs in rural areas.

Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. METHODS: The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. RESULTS: : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. CONCLUSIONS: The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.