A model-based approach to estimating the prevalence of disease combinations in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data. METHODS: We developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates were integrated with the ORs from the meta-regressions in a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of each condition combination. RESULTS: The strongest disease associations in South Africa are between COPD and asthma (OR 14.6, 95% CI 10.3 to 19.9), COPD and IHD (OR 9.2, 95% CI 8.3 to 10.2) and IHD and stroke (OR 7.2, 95% CI 5.9 to 8.4). The most prevalent condition combinations in individuals aged 15+ are hypertension and arthritis (7.6%, 95% CI 5.8% to 9.5%), hypertension and diabetes (7.5%, 95% CI 6.4% to 8.6%) and hypertension and HIV (4.8%, 95% CI 3.3% to 6.6%). The average numbers of comorbidities are greatest in the case of COPD (2.3, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.6), stroke (2.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.4) and IHD (1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2). CONCLUSION: South Africa has high levels of HIV, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis, by international standards, and these are reflected in the most prevalent condition combinations. However, less prevalent conditions such as COPD, stroke and IHD contribute disproportionately to the multimorbidity burden, with high rates of comorbidity. This modelling approach can be used in other settings to characterise the most important disease combinations and levels of comorbidity.

Prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity has increased globally over the past two decades, due to ageing populations and increased burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In a country like South Africa, with a growing burden of NCDs and a high prevalence of HIV, information on multimorbidity can improve planning for healthcare delivery and utilisation, and reduce costs in the context of constrained health resources. This review aims to synthesise prevalence studies on multimorbidity, and identify dominant clusters and trends of multimorbidity in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Scopus, JSTOR, POPLINE, PsycINFO, ScienceDirect, Web of Science and CINAHL), and the reference lists of included articles. Two researchers will independently screen title and abstracts, and then full text to identify studies published before and in 2020 that report on prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa. Risk of bias assessments will be done for each study. Information on the prevalence of multimorbidity and disease clusters will be extracted from each study. Where possible, prevalence of specific clusters of multimorbidity will be pooled using a random effects meta-analysis to account for variability between studies. The I2 statistic will be used to establish the extent of heterogeneity due to variation in prevalence estimates rather than due to chance. The systematic review will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Only published journal articles will be included in the systematic review. This review received ethics approval as part of a larger project by the University of the Western Cape Biomedical Science Research Ethics Committee (BM20/5/8). The findings from this research will be used to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in South Africa and will contribute to the design of future research projects. The findings will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal article. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020196895.

Availability and quality of routine morbidity data: review of studies in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Routine health information systems (RHISs) provide data that are vital for planning and monitoring individual health. Data from RHISs could also be used for purposes for which they were not originally intended, provided that the data are of sufficient quality. For example, morbidity data could be used to inform burden of disease estimations, which serve as important evidence to prioritize interventions and promote health. The objective of this study was to identify and assess published quantitative assessments of data quality related to patient morbidity in RHISs in use in South Africa. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a review of literature published between 1994 and 2014 that assessed the quality of data in RHISs in South Africa. World Health Organization (WHO) data quality components were used as the assessment criteria. RESULTS: Of 420 references identified, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. The studies were limited to tuberculosis and HIV. No study reported more than 3 WHO data quality components or provided a quantitative assessment of quality that could be used for burden of disease estimation. DISCUSSION: The included studies had limited geographical focus and evaluated different source data at different levels of the information system. All studies reported poor data quality. CONCLUSION: This review confirmed concerns about the quality of data in RHISs, and highlighted the need for a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of patient-level morbidity data in RHISs in South Africa.

Epidemiology of lower respiratory infection and pneumonia in South Africa (1997-2015): a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and pneumonia are among the leading causes of death worldwide, especially in children aged under 5 years, and these patterns are reflected in the South African population. Local epidemiological data for LRIs and pneumonia are required to inform the Second National Burden of Disease Study underway in South Africa. The aim of this systematic review is to identify published studies reporting the prevalence, incidence, case fatality, duration or severity of LRI and pneumonia in adults and children in South Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Electronic database searches will be conducted to obtain studies reporting on the prevalence, incidence, case fatality, duration and severity of LRI and pneumonia in South Africa between January 1997 and December 2015. Studies that are assessed to have moderate or low risk of bias will be included in a meta-analysis, if appropriate. Where meta-analysis is not possible, the articles will be described narratively. Subgroup analysis (eg, age groups) will also be conducted where enough information is available. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review will only include published data with no linked patient-level information; thus, no ethics approval is required. The findings will be used to calculate the burden of disease attributed to LRI and pneumonia in South Africa and will highlight the type of epidemiological data available in the country. The article will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed publication. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016036520.

Epidemiology of major depressive disorder in South Africa (1997-2015): a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of disease and disability globally and in South Africa. Epidemiological data for MDD are essential to estimate the overall disease burden in a country. The objective of the systematic review is to examine the evidence base for prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, severity, case fatality and excess mortality of MDD in South Africa from 1997 to 2015. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform electronic searches in PubMed, PsycINFO, Scopus and other bibliographical databases. Articles published between January 1997 and December 2015 will be eligible for inclusion in this review. The primary outcomes will be prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, severity, case fatality and excess mortality of MDD. The secondary outcomes will be risk factors and selected populations for MDD. If appropriate, a meta-analysis will be performed. If a meta-analysis is not possible, the review findings will be presented narratively and in tables. Subgroup analyses will be conducted with subgroups defined by population group, rural/urban settings and study designs, if sufficient data are available. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The systematic review will use published data that are not linked to individuals. The review findings may have implications for future research prioritisation and disease modelling of MDD to estimate its morbidity burden in South Africa, and will be disseminated electronically and in print through peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) CRD42015024885.