A probabilistic decision support tool for prediction and management of rainfall-related poor water quality events for a drinking water treatment plant.

A data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) model was developed for a large Australian drinking water treatment plant, whose raw water comes from a river into which a number of upstream dams outflow water and smaller tributaries flow. During wet weather events, the spatial distribution of rainfall has a crucial role on the incoming raw water quality, as runoff from specific sub-catchments usually causes significant turbidity and conductivity issues, as opposed to larger dam outflows which have typically better water quality. The BN relies on a conceptual model developed following expert consultation, as well as a combination of different types (e.g. water quality, flow, rainfall) and amount (e.g. high-frequency, daily, scarce depending on variable) of historical data. The validated model proved to have acceptable accuracy in predicting the probability of different incoming raw water quality ranges, and can be used to assess different scenarios (e.g. timing, flow) of dam water releases, for the purpose of achieving dilution of the tributary's poor-quality water and mitigate related drinking water treatment challenges.

Chlorophyll and phycocyanin in-situ fluorescence in mixed cyanobacterial species assemblages: Effects of morphology, cell size and growth phase.

Cyanobacteria harmful blooms can represent a major risk for public health due to potential release of toxins and other noxious compounds in the water. A continuous and high-resolution monitoring of the cyanobacteria population is required due to their rapid dynamics, which has been increasingly done using in-situ fluorescence of phycocyanin (f-PC) and chlorophyll a (f-Chl a). Appropriate in-situ fluorometers calibration is essential because f-PC and f-Chl a are affected by biotic and abiotic factors, including species composition. Measurement of f-PC and f-Chl a in mixed species assemblages during different growth phases - representative of most field conditions - has received little attention. We hypothesized that f-PC and f-Chl a of mixed assemblages of cyanobacteria may be accurately estimated if taxa composition and fluorescence characteristics are known. We also hypothesized that species with different morphologies would have different fluorescence per unit cell and biomass. We tested these hypotheses in a controlled culture experiment in which photosynthetic pigment fluorescence, chemical pigment extraction, optical density and microscopic enumeration of four common cyanobacteria species (Aphanocapsa sp, Microcystis aeruginosa, Dolichospermum circinale and Raphidiopsis raciborskii) were quantified. Both monocultures and mixed cultures were monitored from exponential to late stationary growth phases. The sum of fluorescence of individual species calculated for mixed samples was not significantly different than measured fluorescence of mixed cultures. Estimated and measured f-PC and f-Chl a of mixed cultures had higher correlations and smaller absolute median errors when estimations were based on fluorescence per biomass instead of fluorescence per cell. Largest errors were overestimations of measured fluorescence for species with different morphologies. Fluorescence per cell was significantly different among most species, while fluorescence per unit biomass was not, indicating that conversion of fluorescence to biomass reduces species-specific bias. This study presents new information on the effect of species composition on cyanobacteria fluorescence. Best practices of deployment and operation of fluorometers, and data-driven models supporting in-situ fluorometers calibration are discussed as suitable solutions to minimize taxa-specific bias in fluorescence estimates.

Light-induced fluorescence quenching leads to errors in sensor measurements of phytoplankton chlorophyll and phycocyanin.

Optical sensors for fluorescence of chlorophyll a (f-Chl a) and phycocyanin (f-PC) are increasingly used as a proxy for biomass of algae and cyanobacteria, respectively. They provide measurements at high-frequency and modest cost. These sensors require site-specific calibration due to a range of interferences. Light intensity affects the fluorescence yield of cyanobacteria and algae through light harvesting regulation mechanisms, but is often neglected as a potential source of error for in-situ f-Chl a and f-PC measurements. We hypothesised that diel light variations would induce significant f-Chl a and f-PC suppression when compared to dark periods. We tested this hypothesis in a controlled experiment using three commercial fluorescence probes which continuously measured f-Chl a and f-PC from a culture of the cyanobacterium Dolichospermum variabilis as well as f-Chl a from a culture of the green alga Ankistrodesmus gracilis in a simulated natural light regime. Under light, all devices showed a significant (p<0.01) suppression of f-Chl a and f-PC compared to measurements in the dark. f-Chl a decreased by up to 79% and f-PC by up to 59% at maximum irradiance compared to dark-adapted periods. Suppression levels were higher during the second phase of the diel cycle (declining light), indicating that quenching is dependent on previous light exposure. Diel variations in light intensity must be considered as a significant source of bias for fluorescence probes used for algal monitoring. This is of high relevance as most monitoring activities take place during daytime and hence f-Chl a and f-PC are likely to be systematically underestimated under bright conditions. Compensation models, design modifications to fluorometers and sampling design are discussed as suitable alternatives to overcome light-induced fluorescence quenching.

A systematic literature review of forecasting and predictive models for cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater lakes.

Cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) in lakes and reservoirs represent a major risk for water authorities globally due to their toxicity and economic impacts. Anticipating bloom occurrence and understanding the main drivers of CyanoHABs are needed to optimize water resources management. An extensive review of the application of CyanoHABs forecasting and predictive models was performed, and a summary of the current state of knowledge, limitations and research opportunities on this topic is provided through analysis of case studies. Two modelling approaches were used to achieve CyanoHABs anticipation; process-based (PB) and data-driven (DD) models. The objective of the model was a determining factor for the choice of modelling approach. PB models were more frequently used to predict future scenarios whereas DD models were employed for short-term forecasts. Each modelling approach presented multiple variations that may be applied for more specific, targeted purposes. Most models reviewed were site-specific. The monitoring methodologies, including data frequency, uncertainty and precision, were identified as a major limitation to improve model performance. A lack of standardization of both model output and performance metrics was observed. CyanoHAB modelling is an interdisciplinary topic and communication between disciplines should be improved to facilitate model comparisons. These shortcomings can hinder the adoption of modelling tools by practitioners. We suggest that water managers should focus on generalising models for lakes with similar characteristics and where possible use high frequency monitoring for model development and validation.