Impact of age at ivacaftor initiation on pulmonary outcomes among people with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Ivacaftor (IVA) improves lung function and other extrapulmonary outcomes in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, the effect of initiating IVA at earlier versus later ages has not been studied. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study of people in the US CF Foundation Patient Registry aged ≥6 years with ≥1 CF transmembrane conductance regulator-gating mutation to compare the effects of initiating IVA at earlier ages on per cent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (ppFEV1) and pulmonary exacerbation (PEx) outcomes. People with CF were grouped by age at IVA initiation (ages 6-10, 11-15, 16-20 and 21-25 years) to perform three analyses of younger versus older IVA initiation (6-10 vs 11-15, 11-15 vs 16-20 and 16-20 vs 21-25 years). For each analysis, baseline characteristics assessed over 1-year periods at the same age prior to IVA initiation were balanced by standardised mortality/morbidity ratio (SMR) weighting. For each analysis, outcomes were compared over a 5-year outcome assessment period when both groups were in the same age range and receiving IVA. FINDINGS: Baseline characteristics were well balanced between younger and older IVA initiator groups after SMR weighting. In the outcome assessment period, younger IVA initiators had significantly higher mean ppFEV1 than older initiators across all comparisons, and those initiating IVA between ages 6-10 and 11-15 years had significantly lower PEx rates. INTERPRETATION: Study findings showed the importance of early IVA initiation in people with CF.

Calibration and validation of modeled 5-year survival predictions among people with cystic fibrosis treated with the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator modulator ivacaftor using United States registry data.

OBJECTIVES: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare genetic disease characterized by life-shortening lung function decline. Ivacaftor, a CF transmembrane conductance regulator modulator (CFTRm), was approved in 2012 for people with CF with specific gene mutations. We used real-world evidence of 5-year mortality impacts of ivacaftor in a US registry population to validate a CF disease-progression model that estimates the impact of ivacaftor on survival. METHODS: The model projects the impact of ivacaftor vs. standard care in people with CF aged ≥6 years with CFTR gating mutations by combining parametric equations fitted to historical registry survival data, with mortality hazards adjusted for fixed and time-varying person-level characteristics. Disease progression with standard care was derived from published registry studies and the expected impact of ivacaftor on clinical characteristics was derived from clinical trials. Individual-level baseline characteristics of the registry ivacaftor-treated population were entered into the model; 5-year model-projected mortality with credible intervals (CrIs) was compared with registry mortality to evaluate the model's validity. RESULTS: Post-calibration 5-year mortality projections closely approximated registry mortality in populations treated with standard care (6.4% modeled [95% CrI: 5.3% to 7.6%] vs. 6.0% observed) and ivacaftor (3.4% modeled [95% CrI: 2.7% to 4.4%] vs. 3.1% observed). The model accurately predicted 5-year relative risk of mortality (0.53 modeled [0.47 to 0.60] vs. 0.51 observed) in people treated with ivacaftor vs. standard care. CONCLUSIONS: Modeled 5-year survival projections for people with CF initiating ivacaftor vs. standard care align closely with real-world registry data. Findings support the validity of modeling CF to predict long-term survival and estimate clinical and economic outcomes of CFTRm.

Elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor projected survival and long-term health outcomes in people with cystic fibrosis homozygous for F508del.

BACKGROUND: A series of phase 3 clinical trials have demonstrated that elexacaftor plus tezacaftor plus ivacaftor (ELX/TEZ/IVA) is safe and efficacious in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) aged ≥12 years with ≥1 F508del mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. The impact of this treatment on lifetime clinical outcomes and survival, however, has yet to be assessed. METHODS: We used a person-level microsimulation model to estimate the survival and lifetime clinical benefits of ELX/TEZ/IVA treatment versus other CFTR modulator combinations (tezacaftor plus ivacaftor [TEZ/IVA] or lumacaftor plus ivacaftor [LUM/IVA]) or best supportive care (BSC) alone in pwCF aged ≥12 years who are homozygous for F508del-CFTR. Disease progression inputs were derived from published literature; clinical efficacy inputs were derived from an indirect treatment comparison conducted using relevant phase 3 clinical trial data and extrapolations of clinical data. RESULTS: The median projected survival for pwCF homozygous for F508del-CFTR treated with ELX/TEZ/IVA was 71.6 years. This was an increase of 23.2 years versus TEZ/IVA, 26.2 years versus LUM/IVA, and 33.5 years versus BSC alone. Treatment with ELX/TEZ/IVA also reduced disease severity as well as the number of pulmonary exacerbations and lung transplants. In a scenario analysis, the median projected survival for pwCF initiating ELX/TEZ/IVA between the ages of 12 and 17 years was 82.5 years, an increase of 45.4 years compared with BSC alone. CONCLUSIONS: The results from our model suggest ELX/TEZ/IVA treatment may substantially increase survival for pwCF, with early initiation potentially allowing pwCF to achieve near-normal life expectancy.

Limitations of standard cost-effectiveness methods for health technology assessment of treatments for rare, chronic diseases: a case study of treatment for cystic fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is useful to assess the value of health care interventions based on clinical effectiveness and costs. However, standard CEA methods make important assumptions that may significantly increase the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for lifelong treatments for rare, chronic diseases. We used the cost-effectiveness of elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor (ELX/TEZ/IVA) for the treatment of cystic fibrosis as a case study to explore how alternative assumptions for (1) discounting, (2) utility measures, (3) disease management costs, and (4) static drug pricing impact cost-effectiveness outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cost-effectiveness of ELX/TEZ/IVA was evaluated using base-case inputs and assumptions reflecting standard CEA methods and was then compared with cost-effectiveness estimates obtained with alternate assumptions: (1) applying a lower discount rate to health benefits (1.5%) than costs (3%); (2) including a treatment-specific utility increment; (3) excluding disease management costs incurred during the period of extended survival attributable to ELX/TEZ/IVA treatment; and (4) decreasing the price of ELX/TEZ/IVA following loss of exclusivity. RESULTS: Modifying assumptions for these four factors together reduced the ICER by 75% from the base case, with the largest reduction (45%) occurring when the price trajectory was modified to allow for generic entry. Differential discounting, use of a treatment-specific utility increment, and exclusion of additional disease management costs each individually reduced the ICER by 36%, 14%, and 10%, respectively, from the base case. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the impact that modifications to standard CEA methods may have on measures of cost-effectiveness for rare, chronic diseases.

Healthcare resource utilization and costs among children with cystic fibrosis in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Adverse health impacts of cystic fibrosis (CF) can be present in children before respiratory complications are observed. Children with CF show progressive health decline, with increasing lung function decline in adolescence. This study aims to quantify the healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and costs attributable to CF by comparing children with CF with the general pediatric population. METHODS: This retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study compared HCRU and costs among children with CF in the US with demographically similar children without CF (comparison group) over a 12-month period using administrative claims data spanning 2010-2017. Analyses were conducted by insurance type (commercially insured [COM] and Medicaid insured [MED]) and stratified by age (<2 years, 2 to <6 years, 6 to <12 years, and 12-17 years). RESULTS: Children with CF (2831 COM and 1896 MED) were matched to children in the comparison group (8493 COM and 5688 MED). Higher prevalence of comorbidities was seen in children with CF versus the comparison group across all ages. Across all ages, HCRU attributable to CF was substantial (higher hospitalization rates, more outpatient and emergency room visits, and greater use of prescription medications), and there were higher associated costs (all p values < .05), in COM and MED populations. HCRU and costs attributable to CF were highest for children aged 12-17 years. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial HCRU and costs are evident among children with CF across all ages, starting as young as infancy, with highest HCRU and costs among adolescents. Effective treatments from an early age are needed for children with CF.

Long-term safety and efficacy of tezacaftor-ivacaftor in individuals with cystic fibrosis aged 12 years or older who are homozygous or heterozygous for Phe508del CFTR (EXTEND): an open-label extension study.

BACKGROUND: Tezacaftor-ivacaftor is an approved cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator shown to be efficacious and generally safe and well tolerated over 8-24 weeks in phase 3 clinical studies in participants aged 12 years or older with cystic fibrosis homozygous for the Phe508del CFTR mutation (F/F; study 661-106 [EVOLVE]) or heterozygous for the Phe508del CFTR mutation and a residual function mutation (F/RF; study 661-108 [EXPAND]). Longer-term (>24 weeks) safety and efficacy of tezacaftor-ivacaftor has not been assessed in clinical studies. Here, we present results of study 661-110 (EXTEND), a 96-week open-label extension study that assessed long-term safety, tolerability, and efficacy of tezacaftor-ivacaftor in participants aged 12 years or older with cystic fibrosis who were homozygous or heterozygous for the Phe508del CFTR mutation. METHODS: Study 661-110 was a 96-week, phase 3, multicentre, open-label study at 170 clinical research sites in Australia, Europe, Israel, and North America. Participants were aged 12 years or older, had cystic fibrosis, were homozygous or heterozygous for Phe508del CFTR, and completed one of six parent studies of tezacaftor-ivacaftor: studies 661-103, 661-106, 661-107, 661-108, 661-109, and 661-111. Participants received oral tezacaftor 100 mg once daily and oral ivacaftor 150 mg once every 12 h for up to 96 weeks. The primary endpoint was safety and tolerability. Secondary endpoints were changes in lung function, nutritional parameters, and respiratory symptom scores; pulmonary exacerbations; and pharmacokinetic parameters. A post-hoc analysis assessed the rate of lung function decline in F/F participants who received up to 120 weeks of tezacaftor-ivacaftor in studies 661-106 (F/F) and/or 661-110 compared with a matched cohort of CFTR modulator-untreated historical F/F controls from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. Primary safety analyses were done in all participants from all six parent studies who received at least one dose of study drug during this study. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02565914). FINDINGS: Between Aug 31, 2015, to May 31, 2019, 1044 participants were enrolled in study 661-110 from the six parent studies of whom 1042 participants received at least one dose of study drug and were included in the safety set. 995 (95%) participants had at least one TEAE; 22 (2%) had TEAEs leading to discontinuation; and 351 (34%) had serious TEAEs. No deaths occurred during the treatment-emergent period; after the treatment-emergent period, two deaths occurred, which were both deemed unrelated to study drug. F/F (106/110; n=459) and F/RF (108/110; n=226) participants beginning tezacaftor-ivacaftor in study 661-110 had improvements in efficacy endpoints consistent with parent studies; improvements in lung function and nutritional parameters and reductions in pulmonary exacerbations observed in the tezacaftor-ivacaftor groups in the parent studies were generally maintained in study 661-110 for an additional 96 weeks. Pharmacokinetic parameters were also similar to those in the parent studies. The annualised rate of lung function decline was 61·5% (95% CI 35·8 to 86·1) lower in tezacaftor-ivacaftor-treated F/F participants versus untreated matched historical controls. INTERPRETATION: Tezacaftor-ivacaftor was generally safe, well tolerated, and efficacious for up to 120 weeks, and the safety profile of tezacaftor-ivacaftor in study 661-110 was consistent with cystic fibrosis manifestations and with the safety profiles of the parent studies. The rate of lung function decline was significantly reduced in F/F participants, consistent with cystic fibrosis disease modification. Our results support the clinical benefit of long-term tezacaftor-ivacaftor treatment for people aged 12 years or older with cystic fibrosis with F/F or F/RF genotypes. FUNDING: Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated.

Modeling long-term health outcomes of patients with cystic fibrosis homozygous for F508del-CFTR treated with lumacaftor/ivacaftor.

BACKGROUND: Lumacaftor/ivacaftor combination therapy is efficacious and generally safe for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) homozygous for the F508del-CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) mutation. However, long-term survival benefits of lumacaftor/ivacaftor (LUM/IVA) cannot yet be quantified. Simulation models can provide predictions about long-term health outcomes. In this study, we aimed to project long-term health outcomes of LUM/IVA plus standard care (SC) in patients with CF homozygous for F508del-CFTR. METHODS: This modeling study was an individual patient simulation in US patients aged ⩾6 years with CF, homozygous for F508del-CFTR. The primary outcome was projected survival among (a) a cohort of patients who ever initiated LUM/IVA, accounting for treatment discontinuations, and (b) a cohort of patients who remain on continuous LUM/IVA. Patient characteristics and model parameters were derived from clinical trials: VX14-809-109, VX13-809-011B, TRAFFIC/TRANSPORT, and PROGRESS; published literature; and the US CF Foundation Patient Registry. RESULTS: Lumacaftor/ivacaftor + SC is expected to increase median survival by 6.1 years versus SC alone, accounting for treatment discontinuations. The incremental median predicted survival versus SC assuming initiation of LUM/IVA at ages 6, 12, 18, and 25 years was 17.7, 12.6, 8.0, and 3.8 years, respectively. Assuming lifetime treatment with LUM/IVA, incremental median survival was predicted to be 7.8 years longer in the LUM/IVA + SC cohort. Initiating LUM/IVA at ages 6, 12, 18, and 25 years and assuming lifetime treatment resulted in incremental median predicted survival of 23.4, 18.2, 11.0, and 4.8 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lumacaftor/ivacaftor is projected to increase survival for patients with CF. Initiation at an early age and treatment persistence result in further increments in projected survival.

Lumacaftor/Ivacaftor reduces pulmonary exacerbations in patients irrespective of initial changes in FEV1.

BACKGROUND: Improved lung function and fewer pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) were observed with lumacaftor/ivacaftor (LUM/IVA) in patients with cystic fibrosis homozygous for F508del. It is unknown whether PEx reduction extends to patients without early lung function improvement. METHODS: Post hoc analyses of pooled phase 3 data (NCT01807923, NCT01807949) categorized LUM/IVA-treated patients by percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (ppFEV1) change from baseline to day 15 into threshold categories (absolute change ≤0 vs >0; relative change <5% vs ≥5%) and compared PEx rates vs placebo. RESULTS: LUM (400 mg q12h)/IVA (250 mg q12h)-treated patients (n = 369) experienced significantly fewer PEx vs placebo, regardless of threshold category. With LUM/IVA, PEx rate per patient per year was 0.60 for those with absolute change in ppFEV1 > 0 and 0.85 for those with absolute change ≤0 (respective rate ratios vs placebo [95% CI]: 0.53 [0.40-0.69; P < .0001], 0.74 [0.55-0.99; P = .04]). CONCLUSIONS: LUM/IVA significantly reduced PEx, even in patients without early lung function improvement.

Frequency and costs of pulmonary exacerbations in patients with cystic fibrosis in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Information is limited regarding the cost of pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) among patients with cystic fibrosis in the United States. METHODS: To examine PEx costs, medical chart data were linked to insurance claims for patients aged ≥6 years who had commercial coverage from a large US health insurer affiliated with Optum during 2008-2013. A PEx was categorized as an episode requiring newly started (1) oral antibiotics (PEx-O) or (2) intravenous (IV) antibiotics and/or inpatient stay (PEx-IV). RESULTS: Among 241 patients, 88.0% had ≥1 PEx (2.9/year) of any type, and 48.1% had ≥1 PEx-IV. Prior PEx-IV was the strongest risk factor for subsequent PEx-IV. The mean cost per episode was $12,784 for PEx of any type and $36,319 for PEx-IV. Patients with worse lung function were more likely to experience a PEx and incurred higher annual PEx-related costs. LIMITATIONS: This was an observational study using a convenience sample of patients with commercial coverage from a large US health insurer whose medical charts were available for abstraction. Results of the study may not be generalizable to individuals with Medicaid coverage and other types of insurance, or to the uninsured. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients experience ≥1 PEx annually, and nearly half require IV antibiotics and/or inpatient stay at considerable cost.

Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States.

BACKGROUND: High rates of bacterial coinfection in autopsy data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza ("flu") pandemic suggest synergies between flu and pneumococcal disease (PD) during pandemic conditions, and highlight the importance of interventions like the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. METHODS: We used a decision-analytic model, estimated from published sources, to assess the impact of pediatric vaccination with PCV13 versus the 7-valent vaccine (PCV7) on PD incidence and mortality in a normal flu season (10% flu incidence) and in a pandemic similar to 2009-2010 H1N1 (20% flu incidence, mild virulence, high impact in children). Both direct and indirect (herd) effects against PD were considered. Effectiveness of PCV13 was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions of serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against the 6 serotypes not in PCV7. To simulate 2009-2010 H1N1, autopsy data were used to estimate the overall proportion of flu deaths with bacterial coinfections. By assuming that increased risk of death during the pandemic occurred among those with comorbidity (using obesity as proxy) and bacterial coinfections primarily due to S. pneumoniae or S. aureus, we estimated the proportion co-infected among all (fatal and non-fatal) flu cases (7.6% co-infected with any organism; 2.2% with S. pneumoniae). PD incidence, mortality, and total healthcare costs were evaluated over a 1-year horizon. RESULTS: In a normal flu season, compared to PCV7, PCV13 is expected to prevent an additional 13,400 invasive PD (IPD) cases, 399,000 pneumonia cases, and 2,900 deaths, leading to cost savings of $472 M. In a pandemic similar to 2009-2010 H1N1, PCV13 would prevent 22,800 IPD cases, 872,000 pneumonia cases, and 3,700 deaths, resulting in cost savings of $1.0 B compared to PCV7. CONCLUSIONS: In a flu pandemic similar to the 2009-2010 H1N1, protection against the 6 additional serotypes in PCV13 would likely be effective in preventing pandemic-related PD cases, mortality, and associated costs.

Reduced use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and intravenous iron with ferric citrate: a managed care cost-offset model.

BACKGROUND: Ferric citrate (FC) is a phosphate binder in development for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). In clinical trials, FC improved patient serum phosphorus levels and increased serum ferritin and percent transferrin saturation. Because nephrologists respond to increases in these iron measures by reducing intravenous (IV) iron and erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) doses, the decreased use of iron and ESA associated with FC may reduce costs. OBJECTIVES: To develop a cost-offset model from a managed care perspective estimating the cost savings associated with FC use. METHODS: We created a cost-offset model from the managed care payer perspective that compared the treatment costs of ESRD for patients given FC. The model considered the number of dialysis sessions per month; number of ESRD patients enrolled in the health plan; cost of ESAs, iron, and dialysis sessions; and the proportion of patients on phosphate binder therapy. The model assumed equivalent efficacy and cost neutrality between FC and other phosphate binders. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted by varying model inputs. RESULTS: When FC was compared to other phosphate binders, the monthly cost of ESA and IV iron per 500 patients with ESRD (85% treated with phosphate binders) was reduced by 8.15% and 33.2%, respectively. When incorporated into the total cost of dialysis for patients with ESRD (dialysis, ESA, and IV iron), the decrease in the monthly cost of dialysis care was US$80,214 per 500 ESRD patients. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that a plan serving 500 dialysis patients could save between US$626,000 and US$1,106,000 annually with the use of FC. CONCLUSION: The use of FC in ESRD patients with hyperphosphatemia may help reduce treatment costs.

Modeling the impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotype catch-up program using United States claims data.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of US claims data from April 2010 to June 2011 estimated that 39% of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) catch-up eligible cohort would ever receive the catch-up vaccination; a previous analysis assumed 87%. METHODS: This updated figure was applied to a previously published 10-year Markov model while holding all other inputs constant. RESULTS: Our model estimated that the catch-up program as currently implemented is estimated to prevent an additional 1.7 million cases of disease in children aged ≤ 59 months over a 10-year period, compared with routine PCV13 vaccination with no catch-up program. CONCLUSIONS: Because 39% catch-up uptake is less than the level of completion of the 4-dose primary PCV13 series, vaccine-preventable cases of pneumococcal disease and related deaths could be decreased further with additional uptake of catch-up vaccination in the catch-up eligible cohort.

Economic model of a birth cohort screening program for hepatitis C virus.

UNLABELLED: Recent research has identified high hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence among older U.S. residents who contracted HCV decades ago and may no longer be recognized as high risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening 100% of U.S. residents born 1946-1970 over 5 years (birth-cohort screening), compared with current risk-based screening, by projecting costs and outcomes of screening over the remaining lifetime of this birth cohort. A Markov model of the natural history of HCV was developed using data synthesized from surveillance data, published literature, expert opinion, and other secondary sources. We assumed eligible patients were treated with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin, with genotype 1 patients receiving a direct-acting antiviral in combination. The target population is U.S. residents born 1946-1970 with no previous HCV diagnosis. Among the estimated 102 million (1.6 million chronically HCV infected) eligible for screening, birth-cohort screening leads to 84,000 fewer cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 46,000 fewer cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 10,000 fewer liver transplants, and 78,000 fewer HCV-related deaths. Birth-cohort screening leads to higher overall costs than risk-based screening ($80.4 billion versus $53.7 billion), but yields lower costs related to advanced liver disease ($31.2 billion versus $39.8 billion); birth-cohort screening produces an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,700 per quality-adjusted life year gained versus risk-based screening. Sensitivity analyses showed that reducing the time horizon during which health and economic consequences are evaluated increases the ICER; similarly, decreasing the treatment rates and efficacy increases the ICER. Model results were relatively insensitive to other inputs. CONCLUSION: Birth-cohort screening for HCV is likely to provide important health benefits by reducing lifetime cases of advanced liver disease and HCV-related deaths and is cost-effective at conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Epidemiology, survival, and costs of localized gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to examine the epidemiologic and economic burden in surgically resected localized gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) patients versus age- and gender-matched controls. METHOD: Two data sources were used to conduct a series of complementary analyses. First, the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry was used to identify diagnosed GIST patients from 1993 to 2002 and determine incidence, prevalence, and 3-year survival. Second, using the SEER-Medicare linked database, a matched case-control analysis was conducted to determine resource utilization, GIST recurrence, and costs. Because GIST recurrence is not explicitly defined in the database, patterns in resource use were used to identify probable recurrence. Kaplan-Meier Sample Average (KMSA) Estimator technique was used to estimate costs of GIST and recurrence. RESULTS: SEER registry results show over the 10-year time horizon average annual GIST incidence was 0.32 per 100,000 persons in the United States, 15-year limited-duration prevalence was 1.62 per 100,000 persons, and 3-year survival was 73%. A total of 292 GIST patients were included in the SEER-Medicare analyses; 35 were identified with probable recurrence. GIST patients had increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio: 1.23; 95% confidence intervals: 0.94-1.61) compared to controls. Median recurrence-free and postrecurrence survival was 45 and 46 months, respectively. GIST patients incurred significantly higher medical care costs in the first year after initial resection, with $23,221 attributable to GIST. GIST recurrence costs totaled $101,700 over 5 years after initial resection. CONCLUSIONS: GIST is associated with substantial medical care costs, estimated recurrence costs more than $100,000; treatments that delay or reduce recurrence could substantially reduce the burden of GIST.

Public health and economic impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in the United States.

The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) has dramatically decreased pneumococcal disease incidence, and the 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) protects against 6 additional Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of infant vaccination with PCV13 versus PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality as well as the incremental benefit of a serotype catch-up program. PCV13 effectiveness was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions regarding serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against additional serotypes. The model predicts that PCV13 is more effective and cost saving compared with PCV7, preventing 106,000 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases and 2.9 million pneumonia cases, and saving $11.6 billion over a 10-year period. The serotype catch-up program would prevent an additional 12,600 IPD cases and 404,000 pneumonia cases, and save an additional $737 million compared with no catch-up program.

Budgetary impact of treatment with adjuvant imatinib for 1 year following surgical resection of Kit-positive localized gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

BACKGROUND: Imatinib mesylate, an orally administered kinase inhibitor that targets the Kit (CD117) protein, currently has 10 approved indications including treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia and metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). Treatment with adjuvant imatinib following surgical resection of localized Kit-positive GIST, the most recent FDA-approved indication (December 2008), has been shown to significantly improve recurrence-free survival (RFS) compared with surgical resection alone. Although adjuvant imatinib has proven effective in clinical trials, it is important to consider the economic impact to health plans of introducing imatinib in accordance with its new labeled indication. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the budgetary impact over a 3-year time horizon of treating patients with localized Kit-positive GIST with 1 year of adjuvant imatinib following surgical resection. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to predict patients' transitions across health states defined by initial treatment (surgical resection followed by adjuvant imatinib 400 milligrams [mg] daily versus surgical resection alone), recurrence, and progression. Treatments for a first recurrence were (a) imatinib 400 mg daily for recurrences following resection only or after completion of 1 year of treatment with imatinib 400 mg daily and (b) imatinib 800 mg daily for recurrence during active treatment with imatinib 400 mg daily. Treatments for further progression were imatinib 800 mg daily, sunitinib, or best supportive care (BSC) following imatinib 400 mg per day, and sunitinib or BSC following imatinib 800 mg daily. Recurrence rates were derived from the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group (ACOSOG) Z9001 clinical trial, which compared 1 year of adjuvant imatinib following surgical resection with surgical resection only. The total number of patients with localized and surgically resected GIST (incidence rate of 0.36 per 100,000) was estimated from epidemiologic studies of GIST. Uptake of treatment with imatinib was estimated from unpublished data from qualitative market research funded by the study sponsor. The uptake rate assumptions reflected both (a) the percentage of patients with Kitpositive disease and (b) the percentage of clinically eligible patients who would use imatinib. Costs were estimated by combining unit costs from published sources with expected resource utilization based on the clinical trial publication and National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines on the treatment of patients with GIST. To obtain estimates of the budgetary impact, we compared estimated health care costs with versus without adjuvant imatinib, where health care costs with imatinib reflected the costs of treatment minus cost offsets associated with delayed or avoided recurrence or progression. All "with" scenarios assumed no additional uses other than surgically resected localized Kit-positive GIST (i.e., no change in off-label use of imatinib). The budgetary impact was estimated for the first 3 years after the introduction of adjuvant imatinib in accordance with its new labeled indication in a hypothetical plan population of 10 million persons. Results were calculated both as total budgetary impact and as per member per month (PMPM) cost in 2009 dollars. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of model results to changes in parameter estimates. RESULTS: The model predicted 36 incident resected GIST cases per year in a health plan of 10 million members. The estimated counts of cases treated with adjuvant imatinib were 10.8, 16.2, and 21.6 in the first, second, and third years after introduction, respectively, with the annual increases attributable to changes in the proportion of patients with resected GIST assumed to use imatinib (30% in year 1, rising to 45% in year 2 and 60% in year 3). The model predicted that treatment of these cases with imatinib will increase pharmacy costs by an additional $505,144 in the first year, $757,717 in the second year, and $1,010,289 in the third year. Increased resource use associated with monitoring patients during and after treatment with adjuvant imatinib would cost an additional $21,564, $38,145, and $56,605 in the first, second, and third years, respectively. Recurrence would be avoided or delayed in 7 patients over the 3-year period. Avoided or delayed recurrences would result in cost offsets of $61,583 in the first year, $156,702 in the second year, and $233,849 in the third year. The net budgetary impact was estimated to be $465,126 in the first year (less than $0.01 PMPM), $639,159 in the second year ($0.01 PMPM), and $833,044 in the third year ($0.01 PMPM). Results of sensitivity analyses indicated that the budgetary impact in the third year is most sensitive to changes in the price of adjuvant imatinib and recurrence rates. CONCLUSIONS: The model predicted that the introduction of adjuvant imatinib for treatment of surgically resected, localized, Kit-positive GIST will lead to a net budgetary impact of $0.01 PMPM in the third year after introduction assuming change in use only in accordance with the new labeled indication. Approximately 11.7%-21.9% of the cost of adjuvant imatinib is offset by the reduction in costs associated with GIST recurrence.

Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons. RESULTS: The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.