Prostate cancer diagnosis rates among insured men with and without HIV in South Africa: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have found lower prostate cancer diagnosis rates among men with HIV (MWH) than men without HIV, but reasons for this finding remain unclear. METHODS: We used claims data from a South African private medical insurance scheme (07/2017-07/2020) to assess prostate cancer diagnosis rates among men aged ≥18 years with and without HIV. Using flexible parametric survival models, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the association between HIV and incident prostate cancer diagnoses. We accounted for potential confounding by age, population group, and sexually transmitted infections (confounder-adjusted model), and additionally for potential mediation by prostatitis diagnoses, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, and prostate biopsies (fully adjusted model). RESULTS: We included 288 194 men, of whom 20 074 (7%) were living with HIV. Prostate cancer was diagnosed in 1 614 men without HIV (median age at diagnosis: 67 years) and in 82 MWH (median age at diagnosis: 60 years). In the unadjusted analysis, prostate cancer diagnosis rates were 35% lower among MWH than men without HIV (HR 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52-0-82). However, this association was no longer evident in the confounder-adjusted model (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.82-1.30) or in the fully adjusted model (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.91-1.44). CONCLUSIONS: When accounting for potential confounders and mediators, our analysis found no evidence of lower prostate cancer diagnosis rates among men with HIV than men without HIV in South Africa. IMPACT: Our results do not support the hypothesis that HIV decreases the risk of prostate cancer.

Cervical precancer and cancer incidence among insured women with and without HIV in South Africa.

HIV infection increases the risk of developing cervical cancer; however, longitudinal studies in sub-Saharan Africa comparing cervical cancer rates between women living with HIV (WLWH) and women without HIV are scarce. To address this gap, we compared cervical precancer and cancer incidence rates between WLWH and women without HIV in South Africa using reimbursement claims data from a medical insurance scheme from January 2011 to June 2020. We used Royston-Parmar flexible parametric survival models to estimate cervical precancer and cancer incidence rates as a continuous function of age, stratified by HIV status. Our study population consisted of 518 048 women, with exclusions based on the endpoint of interest. To analyse cervical cancer incidence, we included 517 312 women, of whom 564 developed cervical cancer. WLWH had an ~3-fold higher risk of developing cervical precancer and cancer than women without HIV (adjusted hazard ratio for cervical cancer: 2.99; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.40-3.73). For all endpoints of interest, the estimated incidence rates were higher in WLWH than women without HIV. Cervical cancer rates among WLWH increased at early ages and peaked at 49 years (122/100 000 person-years; 95% CI: 100-147), whereas, in women without HIV, incidence rates peaked at 56 years (40/100 000 person-years; 95% CI: 36-45). Cervical precancer rates peaked in women in their 30s. Analyses of age-specific cervical cancer rates by HIV status are essential to inform the design of targeted cervical cancer prevention policies in Southern Africa and other regions with a double burden of HIV and cervical cancer.

Life years lost associated with mental illness: A cohort study of beneficiaries of a South African medical insurance scheme.

BACKGROUND: People with mental illness have a reduced life expectancy, but the extent of the mortality gap and the contribution of natural and unnatural causes to excess mortality among people with mental illness in South Africa are unknown. METHODS: We analysed reimbursement claims from South African medical insurance scheme beneficiaries aged 15-85 years. We estimated excess life years lost (LYL) associated with organic, substance use, psychotic, mood, anxiety, eating, personality, developmental or any mental disorders. RESULTS: We followed 1,070,183 beneficiaries for a median of three years, of whom 282,926 (26.4 %) received mental health diagnoses. Men with a mental health diagnosis lost 3.83 life years (95 % CI 3.58-4.10) compared to men without. Women with a mental health diagnosis lost 2.19 life years (1.97-2.41) compared to women without. Excess mortality varied by sex and diagnosis, from 11.50 LYL (95 % CI 9.79-13.07) among men with alcohol use disorder to 0.87 LYL (0.40-1.43) among women with generalised anxiety disorder. Most LYL were attributable to natural causes (men: 3.42, women: 1.94). A considerable number of LYL were attributable to unnatural causes among men with bipolar (1.52) or substance use (2.45) disorder. LIMITATIONS: Mental diagnoses are based on reimbursement claims. CONCLUSIONS: Premature mortality among South African individuals with mental disorders is high. Our findings support interventions for the prevention, early detection, and treatment of physical comorbidities in this population. Targeted programs for suicide prevention and substance use treatment, particularly among men, can help reduce excess mortality from unnatural causes.

Decreasing incidence of conjunctival squamous cell carcinoma in people with HIV in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The main risk factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the conjunctiva (SCCC) are immunodeficiency and exposure to ultraviolet radiation. Little is known about SCCC epidemiology among people with HIV (PWH) in South Africa. METHODS: We used data from the South African HIV Cancer Match study, a nation-wide cohort of PWH in South Africa, created through a privacy-preserving probabilistic record linkage of HIV-related laboratory records from the National Health Laboratory Service and cancer records from the National Cancer Registry from 2004 to 2014. We calculated crude incidence rates, analyzed trends using joinpoint models, and estimated hazard ratios for different risk factors using Royston-Parmar flexible parametric survival models. RESULTS: Among 5 247 968 PWH, 1059 cases of incident SCCC were diagnosed, for a crude overall SCCC incidence rate of 6.8 per 100 000 person-years. The SCCC incidence rate decreased between 2004 and 2014, with an annual percentage change of ‒10.9% (95% confidence interval: ‒13.3 to ‒8.3). PWH residing within latitudes 30°S to 34°S had a 49% lower SCCC risk than those residing at less than 25°S latitude (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.67; 95% confidence interval: 0.55 to 0.82). Other risk factors for SCCC were lower CD4 counts and middle age. There was no evidence for an association of sex or settlement type with SCCC risk. CONCLUSIONS: An increased risk of developing SCCC was associated with lower CD4 counts and residence closer to the equator, indicative of higher ultraviolet radiation exposure. Clinicians and PWH should be educated on known SCCC preventive measures, such as maintaining high CD4 counts and protection from ultraviolet radiation through sunglasses and sunhats when outdoors.

Mental Health, ART Adherence, and Viral Suppression Among Adolescents and Adults Living with HIV in South Africa: A Cohort Study.

We followed adolescents and adults living with HIV aged older than 15 years who enrolled in a South African private-sector HIV programme to examine adherence and viral non-suppression (viral load > 400 copies/mL) of participants with (20,743, 38%) and without (33,635, 62%) mental health diagnoses. Mental health diagnoses were associated with unfavourable adherence patterns. The risk of viral non-suppression was higher among patients with organic mental disorders [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.96], substance use disorders (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19-1.97), serious mental disorders (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.09-1.54), and depression (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.28) when compared with patients without mental health diagnoses. The risk of viral non-suppression was also higher among males, adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). Our study highlights the need for psychosocial interventions to improve HIV treatment outcomes-particularly of adolescents and young adults-and supports strengthening mental health services in HIV treatment programmes.

RESUMEN: Monitoreamos adolescentes y adultos mayores de 15 años que viven con VIH y que están registrados en un programa privado Surafricano para el tratamiento del VIH. Nuestro propósito fue examinar adherencia a los medicamentos y supresión viral (carga viral < 400 copias/mL) en los participantes con (20,743, 38%) y sin (33,635, 62%) diagnósticos de salud mental. Los diagnósticos de salud mental estuvieron asociados con patrones de adherencia desfavorables. Comparados con pacientes sin diagnósticos de salud mental, el riesgo de no supresión viral fue más alto entre pacientes con desórdenes mentales orgánicos [riesgo relativo ajustado (aRR) 1.55, 95% intervalo de confidencia (CI) 1.22­1.96], desórdenes en el uso de sustancias (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19­1.97), desórdenes mentales serios (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.09­1.54), y depresión (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10­1.28). El riesgo de no supresión viral también fue más alto en hombres que en mujeres, en adolescentes (15­19 años), y en adultos jóvenes. Nuestro estudio resalta la necesidad de intervenciones psicosociales para mejorar los resultados del tratamiento contra el VIH ­particularmente en adolescentes y adultos jóvenes­, y respalda el fortalecimiento de servicios de salud mental como parte de los programas para el tratamiento del VIH.

Life-years lost associated with mental illness: a cohort study of beneficiaries of a South African medical insurance scheme.

Importance: People with mental illness have a reduced life expectancy, but the extent of the mortality gap and the contribution of natural and unnatural causes to excess mortality among people with mental illness in South Africa are unknown. Objective: To quantify excess mortality due to natural and unnatural causes associated with mental illness. Design setting and participants: Cohort study using reimbursement claims and vital registration of beneficiaries of a South African medical insurance scheme, aged 15-84 years and covered by medical insurance at any point between January 1, 2011, and June 30, 2020. Exposures: ICD-10 diagnoses of mental disorders including organic, substance use, psychotic, mood, anxiety, eating, personality, and developmental disorders. Outcomes: Mortality from natural, unnatural, unknown and all causes, as measured by the life-years lost (LYL) metric. Results: We followed 1 070 183 beneficiaries (51.7% female, median age 36.1 years for a median duration of 3.0 years, of whom 282 926 (26.4%) received mental health diagnoses and 27 640 (2.6%) died. Life expectancy of people with mental health diagnoses was 3.83 years (95% CI 3.58-4.10) shorter for men and 2.19 years (1.97-2.41) shorter for women. Excess mortality varied by sex and diagnosis, ranging from 11.50 LYL (95% CI 9.79-13.07) among men with alcohol use disorder to 0.87 LYL (0.40-1.43) among women with generalised anxiety disorder. Most LYL were attributable to natural causes (3.42 among men and 1.94 among women). A considerable number of LYL were attributable to unnatural causes among men with bipolar (1.52) or substance use (2.45) disorder. Conclusions and Relevance: The burden of premature mortality among persons with mental disorders in South Africa is high. Our findings support implementing interventions for prevention, early detection, and treatment of physical comorbidities among people with mental disorders. Suicide prevention and substance use treatment programmes are needed to reduce excess mortality from unnatural causes, especially among men. Key points: Question: How much shorter is the life expectancy of people with mental illness compared to the general population and how many life years are lost due to natural and unnatural causes of death?Findings: The life expectancy of people with mental health diagnoses was 3.83 years shorter for men and 2.19 years shorter for women. Most excess life years lost were attributable to natural causes (3.42 among men and 1.94 among women). However, bipolar and substance use disorders were associated with considerable premature mortality from unnatural causes.Meaning: Our findings support the implementation of interventions for improving the physical health of people with mental illness and targeted suicide prevention and substance use treatment programmes.

Age and Cancer Incidence in 5.2 Million People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): The South African HIV Cancer Match Study.

BACKGROUND: Old age is an important risk factor for developing cancer, but few data exist on this association in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PWH) in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The South African HIV Cancer Match study is a nationwide cohort of PWH based on a linkage between HIV-related laboratory records from the National Health Laboratory Service and cancer diagnoses from the National Cancer Registry for 2004-2014. We included PWH who had HIV-related tests on separate days. Using natural splines, we modeled cancer incidence rates as a function of age. RESULTS: We included 5 222 827 PWH with 29 580 incident cancer diagnoses-most commonly cervical cancer (n = 7418), Kaposi sarcoma (n = 6380), and breast cancer (n = 2748). In young PWH, the incidence rates for infection-related cancers were substantially higher than for infection-unrelated cancers. At age 40 years, the most frequent cancer was cervical cancer in female and Kaposi sarcoma in male PWH. Thereafter, the rates of infection-unrelated cancers increased steeply, particularly among male PWH, where prostate cancer became the most frequent cancer type at older age. Whereas Kaposi sarcoma rates peaked at 34 years (101/100 000 person-years) in male PWH, cervical cancer remained the most frequent cancer among older female PWH. CONCLUSIONS: Infection-related cancers are common in PWH in South Africa, but rates of infection-unrelated cancers overtook those of infection-related cancers after age 54 years in the overall study population. As PWH in South Africa live longer, prevention and early detection of infection-unrelated cancers becomes increasingly important. Meanwhile, control strategies for infection-related cancers, especially cervical cancer, remain essential.

Diagnosis and treatment of opioid-related disorders in a South African private sector medical insurance scheme: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The use of opioids is increasing globally, but data from low- and middle-income countries on opioid-related mental and behavioural disorders (hereafter referred to as opioid-related disorders) are scarce. This study examines the incidence of opioid-related disorders, opioid agonist use, and excess mortality among persons with opioid-related disorders in South Africa's private healthcare sector. METHODS: We analysed longitudinal data of beneficiaries (≥ 11 years) of a South African medical insurance scheme using reimbursement claims from Jan 1, 2011, to Jul 1, 2020. Beneficiaries were classified as having an opioid-related disorder if they received an opioid agonist (buprenorphine or methadone) or an ICD-10 diagnosis for harmful opioid use (F11.1), opioid dependence or withdrawal (F11.2-4), or an unspecified or other opioid-related disorder (F11.0, F11.5-9). We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for factors associated with opioid-related disorders, estimated the cumulative incidence of opioid agonist use after receiving an ICD-10 diagnosis for opioid dependence or withdrawal, and examined excess mortality among beneficiaries with opioid-related disorders. RESULTS: Of 1,251,458 beneficiaries, 1286 (0.1%) had opioid-related disorders. Between 2011 and 2020, the incidence of opioid-related disorders increased by 12% (95% CI 9%-15%) per year. Men, young adults in their twenties, and beneficiaries with co-morbid mental health or other substance use disorders were at increased risk of opioid-related disorders. The cumulative incidence of opioid agonist use among beneficiaries who received an ICD-10 diagnosis for opioid dependence or withdrawal was 18.0% (95% CI 14.0-22.4) 3 years after diagnosis. After adjusting for age, sex, year, medical insurance coverage, and population group, opioid-related disorders were associated with an increased risk of mortality (aHR 2.28, 95% CI 1.84-2.82). Opioid-related disorders were associated with a 7.8-year shorter life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of people diagnosed with or treated for an opioid-related disorder in the private sector is increasing rapidly. People with opioid-related disorders are a vulnerable population with substantial psychiatric comorbidity who often die prematurely. Evidence-based management of opioid-related disorders is urgently needed to improve the health outcomes of people with opioid-related disorders.

Cancer treatment and survival among cervical cancer patients living with or without HIV in South Africa.

Objective: To compare cancer treatment and all-cause mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative cervical cancer patients in South Africa. Methods: We assessed cancer treatment and all-cause mortality in HIV-positive and HIV-negative cervical cancer patients who received cancer treatment within 180 days of diagnosis using reimbursement claims data from a private medical insurance scheme in South Africa between 01/2011 and 07/2020. We assessed treatment provision using logistic regression and factors associated with all-cause mortality using Cox regression. We assigned missing values for histology and ethnicity using multiple imputation. Results: Of 483 included women, 136 (28 %) were HIV-positive at cancer diagnosis (median age: 45.7 years), and 347 (72 %) were HIV-negative (median age: 54.1 years). Among 285 patients with available ICD-O-3 morphology claims codes, the proportion with cervical adenocarcinoma was substantially lower in HIV-positive (4 %) than in HIV-negative patients (26 %). Most HIV-positive patients (67 %) were on antiretroviral therapy at cancer diagnosis. HIV-positive patients were more likely to receive radiotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.05-3.45) or chemotherapy (aOR 2.02, 95 %CI 0.92-4.43) and less likely to undergo surgery (aOR 0.53, 95 %CI 0.31-0.90) than HIV-negative patients. HIV-positive patients were at a higher risk of death from all causes than HIV-negative patients (adjusted hazard ratio 1.52, 95 %CI 1.06-2.19). Other factors associated with higher all-cause mortality included age > 60 years and metastases at diagnosis. Conclusions: HIV-positive cervical cancer patients in South Africa had higher all-cause mortality than HIV-negative patients which could be explained by differences in tumour progression, clinical care, and HIV-specific mortality.

Combining individual patient data from randomized and non-randomized studies to predict real-world effectiveness of interventions.

Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials is generally considered the most reliable source of estimates of relative treatment effects. However, in the last few years, there has been interest in using non-randomized studies to complement evidence from randomized controlled trials. Several meta-analytical models have been proposed to this end. Such models mainly focussed on estimating the average relative effects of interventions. In real-life clinical practice, when deciding on how to treat a patient, it might be of great interest to have personalized predictions of absolute outcomes under several available treatment options. This paper describes a general framework for developing models that combine individual patient data from randomized controlled trials and non-randomized study when aiming to predict outcomes for a set of competing medical interventions applied in real-world clinical settings. We also discuss methods for measuring the models' performance to identify the optimal model to use in each setting. We focus on the case of continuous outcomes and illustrate our methods using a data set from rheumatoid arthritis, comprising patient-level data from three randomized controlled trials and two registries from Switzerland and Britain.

Cohort profile: the South African HIV Cancer Match (SAM) Study, a national population-based cohort.

PURPOSE: The South African HIV Cancer Match (SAM) Study is a national cohort of people living with HIV (PLWH). It was created using probabilistic record linkages of routine laboratory records of PLWH retrieved by National Health Laboratory Services (NHLS) and cancer data from the National Cancer Registry. The SAM Study aims to assess the spectrum and risk of cancer in PLWH in the context of the evolving South African HIV epidemic. The SAM Study's overarching goal is to inform cancer prevention and control programmes in PLWH in the era of antiretroviral treatment in South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: PLWH (both adults and children) who accessed HIV care in public sector facilities and had HIV diagnostic or monitoring laboratory tests from NHLS. FINDINGS TO DATE: The SAM cohort currently includes 5 248 648 PLWH for the period 2004 to 2014; 69% of these are women. The median age at cohort entry was 33.0 years (IQR: 26.2-40.9). The overall cancer incidence in males and females was 235.9 (95% CI: 231.5 to 240.5) and 183.7 (181.2-186.2) per 100 000 person-years, respectively.Using data from the SAM Study, we examined national cancer incidence in PLWH and the association of different cancers with immunodeficiency. Cancers with the highest incidence rates were Kaposi sarcoma, cervix, breast, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and eye cancer. FUTURE PLANS: The SAM Study is a unique, evolving resource for research and surveillance of malignancies in PLWH. The SAM Study will be regularly updated. We plan to enrich the SAM Study through record linkages with other laboratory data within the NHLS (eg, tuberculosis, diabetes and lipid profile data), mortality data and socioeconomic data to facilitate comprehensive epidemiological research of comorbidities among PLWH.

Cancer risk in adolescents and young adults living with HIV in South Africa: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Literature on cancer in adolescents and young adults (AYA; aged 15-24 years) living with HIV is scarce. We studied cancer incidence in AYA living with HIV in South Africa between 2004 and 2014. METHODS: In this nationwide cohort study, we included individuals between 15 and 24 years old who had at least two HIV-related laboratory measurements on separate days between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2014, recorded in the National Health Laboratory Service database. We used privacy-preserving probabilistic record linkage methods to identify HIV-related laboratory records that most likely belonged to the same individual and to then link these individuals to cancer diagnoses from the National Cancer Registry. We computed incidence rates for the most common cancers in AYA living with HIV, and we assessed associations between these cancers and sex, age, calendar year, and CD4 cell count using Cox proportional hazards models and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs). FINDINGS: We included 782 454 AYA living with HIV (698 066 [89·2%] women) with 1 428 114 person-years of follow-up. Of those, 867 developed incident cancer (incidence rate 60·7 per 100 000 person-years), including 429 who developed Kaposi sarcoma (30·0 per 100 000 person-years), 107 non-Hodgkin lymphoma (7·5 per 100 000 person-years), 48 Hodgkin lymphoma (3·4 per 100 000 person-years), 45 cervical cancer (3·4 per 100 000 woman-years), and 32 leukaemia (2·2 per 100 000 person-years). Kaposi sarcoma was more common in the 20-24 year age group than the 15-19 year age group (aHR 1·39, 95% CI 1·03-1·86). Male sex was associated with higher rates of Kaposi sarcoma (2·06, 1·61-2·63), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3·17, 2·06-4·89), Hodgkin lymphoma (4·83, 2·61-8·93), and leukaemia (unadjusted HR 5·90, 95% CI 2·87-12·12). Cancer rates decreased over the study period, driven by declining Kaposi sarcoma rates. Lower baseline CD4 cell counts were associated with higher rates of Kaposi sarcoma, cervical cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and Hodgkin lymphoma, but not leukaemia. INTERPRETATION: Infection-related cancers were the most common cancer types in AYA living with HIV in South Africa, and their incidence rates increased with lower CD4 cell counts. Therefore, innovative strategies to maintaining high CD4 cell counts are needed to reduce the cancer burden in this vulnerable population. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Immunodeficiency and Cancer in 3.5 Million People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): The South African HIV Cancer Match Study.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed associations between immunodeficiency and cancer incidence in a nationwide cohort of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) in South Africa. METHODS: We used data from the South African HIV Cancer Match Study built on HIV-related laboratory measurements from the National Health Laboratory Services and cancer records from the National Cancer Registry. We evaluated associations between time-updated CD4 cell count and cancer incidence rates using Cox proportional hazards models. We reported adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) over a grid of CD4 values and estimated the aHR per 100 CD4 cells/µL decrease. RESULTS: Of 3 532 266 PLWH, 15 078 developed cancer. The most common cancers were cervical cancer (4150 cases), Kaposi sarcoma (2262 cases), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (1060 cases). The association between lower CD4 cell count and higher cancer incidence rates was strongest for conjunctival cancer (aHR per 100 CD4 cells/µL decrease: 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-1.54), Kaposi sarcoma (aHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20-1.26), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (aHR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.22). Among infection-unrelated cancers, lower CD4 cell counts were associated with higher incidence rates of esophageal cancer (aHR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00-1.11) but not breast, lung, or prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Lower CD4 cell counts were associated with an increased risk of developing various infection-related cancers among PLWH. Reducing HIV-induced immunodeficiency may be a potent cancer-prevention strategy among PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa, a region heavily burdened by cancers attributable to infections.

Excess mortality associated with mental illness in people living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa: a cohort study using linked electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders can adversely affect HIV treatment outcomes and survival. Data are scarce on premature deaths in people with mental disorders in HIV-positive populations, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. In this study, we quantified excess mortality associated with mental disorders in HIV-positive people in South Africa, adjusting for HIV treatment outcomes. METHODS: For this cohort study, we analysed routinely collected data on HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Cape Town, South Africa between Jan 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2017. Data from three ART programmes were linked with routine medical records on mental health treatment from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2017, and mortality surveillance data from the South African National Population Register up to Dec 31, 2017. People living with HIV aged 15 years or older who initiated ART at a programme site were eligible for analysis. We followed up patients from ART initiation or Jan 1, 2010, whichever occurred later, to transfer, death, or Dec 31, 2017. Patients were considered as having a history of mental illness if they had ever received psychiatric medication or been hospitalised for a mental disorder. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% CIs for associations between history of mental illness, mortality, and HIV treatment outcomes (retention in care with viral load suppression [VLS; viral load <1000 copies per mL], retention in care with non-suppressed viral load [NVL; viral load ≥1000 copies per mL], and loss to follow-up [LTFU; >180 days late for a clinic visit at closure of the database]) using Cox proportional hazard regression and multistate models. RESULTS: 58 664 patients were followed up for a median of 4·3 years (IQR 2·1-6·4), 2927 (5·0%) of whom had a history of mental illness. After adjustment for age, sex, treatment programme, and year of ART initiation, history of mental illness was associated with increased risk of mortality from all causes (aHR 2·98 [95% CI 2·69-3·30]), natural causes (3·00 [2·69-3·36]), and unnatural causes (2·10 [1·27-3·49]), compared with no history of mental illness. Risk of all-cause mortality in people with a history of mental illness remained increased in multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, treatment programme, year of ART initiation, CD4 count and WHO clinical stage at ART initiation, retention in HIV care with or without VLS, and LTFU (2·73 [2·46-3·02]). In our multistate model, adjusted for age, sex, year of ART initiation, cumulative time with NVL, and WHO clinical stage and CD4 cell count at ART initiation, rates of excess all-cause mortality in people with history of mental illness were greatest in patients retained in care with VLS (aHR 3·43 [95% CI 2·83-4·15]), followed by patients retained in care with NVL (2·74 [2·32-3·24]), and smallest in those LTFU (2·12 [1·78-2·53]). History of mental illness was also associated with increased risk of HIV viral rebound (transitioning from VLS to NVL; 1·50 [1·32-1·69]) and LTFU in people with VLS (1·19 [1·06-1·34]). INTERPRETATION: Mental illness was associated with substantial excess mortality in HIV-positive adults in Cape Town. Excess mortality among people with a history of mental illness occurred independently of HIV treatment success. Interventions to reduce excess mortality should address the complex physical and mental health-care needs of people living with HIV and mental illness. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, Swiss National Science Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Mortality from suicide among people living with HIV and the general Swiss population: 1988-2017.

INTRODUCTION: In many countries, mortality due to suicide is higher among people living with HIV than in the general population. We aimed to analyse trends in suicide mortality before and after the introduction of triple combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), and to identify risk factors associated with death from suicide in Switzerland. METHODS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from the pre-cART (1988-1995), earlier cART (1996-2008) and later cART (2009-2017) eras. We used multivariable Cox regression to assess risk factors for death due to suicide in the ART era and computed standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) to compare mortality rates due to suicide among persons living with HIV with the general population living in Switzerland, using data from the Swiss National Cohort. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We included 20,136 persons living with HIV, of whom 204 (1.0%) died by suicide. In men, SMRs for suicide declined from 12.9 (95% CI 10.4-16.0) in the pre-cART era to 2.4 (95% CI 1.2-5.1) in the earlier cART and 3.1 (95% CI 2.3-4.3) in the later cART era. In women, the corresponding ratios declined from 14.2 (95% CI 7.9-25.7) to 10.2 (3.8-27.1) and to 3.3 (95% CI 1.5-7.4). Factors associated with death due to suicide included gender (adjusted hazard ratio 0.58 (95% CI 0.38-0.87) comparing women with men), nationality (1.95 (95% CI 1.34-2.83) comparing Swiss with other), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention clinical stage (0.33 (95% CI 0.24-0.46) comparing stage A with C), transmission group (2.64 (95% CI 1.71-4.09) for injection drug use and 2.10 (95% CI 1.36-3.24) for sex between men compared to other), and mental health (2.32 (95% CI 1.71-3.14) for a history of psychiatric treatment vs. no history). There was no association with age. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide rates have decreased substantially among people living with HIV in the last three decades but have remained about three times higher than in the general population since the introduction of cART. Continued emphasis on suicide prevention among men and women living with HIV is important.

Prediction of Real-World Drug Effectiveness Prelaunch: Case Study in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Decision makers often need to assess the real-world effectiveness of new drugs prelaunch, when phase II/III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) but no other data are available. OBJECTIVE: To develop a method to predict drug effectiveness prelaunch and to apply it in a case study in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: The approach 1) identifies a market-approved treatment ( S) currently used in a target population similar to that of the new drug ( N); 2) quantifies the impact of treatment, prognostic factors, and effect modifiers on clinical outcome; 3) determines the characteristics of patients likely to receive N in routine care; and 4) predicts treatment outcome in simulated patients with these characteristics. Sources of evidence include expert opinion, RCTs, and observational studies. The framework relies on generalized linear models. RESULTS: The case study assessed the effectiveness of tocilizumab (TCZ), a biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD), combined with conventional DMARDs, compared to conventional DMARDs alone. Rituximab (RTX) combined with conventional DMARDs was identified as treatment S. Individual participant data from 2 RCTs and 2 national registries were analyzed. The model predicted the 6-month changes in the Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) accurately: the mean change was -2.101 (standard deviation [SD] = 1.494) in the simulated patients receiving TCZ and conventional DMARDs compared to -1.873 (SD = 1.220) in retrospectively assessed observational data. It was -0.792 (SD = 1.499) in registry patients treated with conventional DMARDs. CONCLUSION: The approach performed well in the RA case study, but further work is required to better define its strengths and limitations.

A Laplace mixture model for identification of differential expression in microarray experiments.

Microarrays have become an important tool for studying the molecular basis of complex disease traits and fundamental biological processes. A common purpose of microarray experiments is the detection of genes that are differentially expressed under two conditions, such as treatment versus control or wild type versus knockout. We introduce a Laplace mixture model as a long-tailed alternative to the normal distribution when identifying differentially expressed genes in microarray experiments, and provide an extension to asymmetric over- or underexpression. This model permits greater flexibility than models in current use as it has the potential, at least with sufficient data, to accommodate both whole genome and restricted coverage arrays. We also propose likelihood approaches to hyperparameter estimation which are equally applicable in the Normal mixture case. The Laplace model appears to give some improvement in fit to data, though simulation studies show that our method performs similarly to several other statistical approaches to the problem of identification of differential expression.