Tracking 20 years of forest demographics in east Texas, USA, using national forest inventory data.

Forest resource reporting techniques primarily use the two most recent measurements for understanding forest change. Multiple remeasurements now exist within the US national forest inventory (NFI), providing an opportunity to examine long-term forest demographics. We leverage two decades of remeasurements to quantify live-dead wood demographics which can better inform estimates of resource changes in forest ecosystems. Our overall objective is to identify opportunities and gaps in tracking 20 years of forest demographics within the US NFI using east Texas as a pilot study region given its diversity of tree species, prevalence of managed conditions, frequency of disturbances, and relatively rapid change driven by a warm, humid climate. We examine growth and mortality rates, identify transitions to downed dead wood/litter and removal via harvest, and describe implications of these processes focusing on key species groups (i.e., loblolly pine, post oak, and water oak) and size classes (i.e., saplings, small and large trees). Growth and mortality rates fluctuated differently over time by species and stem sizes in response to large-scale disturbances, namely the 2011 drought in Texas. Tree-fall rates were highest in saplings and snag-fall rates trended higher in smaller trees. For removal rates, different stem sizes generally followed similar patterns within each species group. Forest demographics from the field-based US NFI are informative for identifying diffuse lagged mortality, species- and size-specific effects, and management effects. Moreover, researchers continually seek to employ ancillary data and develop new statistical methods to enhance understanding of forest resource changes from field-based inventories.

Wildfires correlate with reductions in aboveground tree carbon stocks and sequestration capacity on forest land in the Western United States.

In the United States (US), forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink, offsetting the equivalent of >12 % of economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions annually. In the Western US, wildfires have shaped much of the landscape by changing forest structure and composition, increasing tree mortality, impacting forest regeneration, and influencing forest carbon storage and sequestration capacity. Here, we used remeasurements of >25,000 plots from the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program and auxiliary information (e.g., Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity) to characterize the role of fire along with other natural and anthropogenic drivers on estimates of carbon stocks, stock changes, and sequestration capacity on forest land in the Western US. Several biotic (e.g., tree size, species, and forest structure) and abiotic factors (e.g., warm climate, severe drought, compound disturbances, and anthropogenic interventions) influenced post-fire tree mortality and regeneration and had concomitant impacts on carbon stocks and sequestration capacity. Forest ecosystems in a high severity and low frequency wildfire regime had greater reductions in aboveground biomass carbon stocks and sequestration capacity compared to forests in a low severity and high frequency fire regime. Results from this study can improve our understanding of the role of wildfire along with other biotic and abiotic drivers on carbon dynamics in forest ecosystems in the Western US.

Comparing methods that quantify forest disturbances in the United States' national forest inventory.

Forest disturbances play a critical role in ecosystem dynamics. However, the methods for quantifying these disturbances at broad scales may underestimate disturbances that affect individual trees. Utilizing individual tree variables may provide early disturbance detection that directly affects tree demographics and forest dynamics. The goals of this study were to (1) describe different methods for quantifying disturbances at individual tree and condition-level scales, (2) compare the differences between disturbance variables, and (3) provide a methodology for selecting an appropriate disturbance variable from national forest inventories for diverse applications depending on user needs. To achieve these goals, we used all the remeasurements available from the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database since the start of the annual inventory for the lower 48 US states. Variables used included disturbance code, treatment code, agent of mortality, and damage code. Chi-square tests of independence were used to verify how the choice of the variable that represents disturbance affects its magnitude. Disturbed plots, as classified by each disturbance variable, were mapped to observe their spatial distribution. We found that the Chi-square tests were significant when using all the states and comparing each state individually, indicating that different results exist depending on which variable is used to represent disturbance. Our results will be a useful tool to help researchers measure the magnitude and scale of disturbance since the manner in which disturbances are categorized will impact forest management plans, national and international reports of forest carbon stocks, and sequestration potential under future global change scenarios.

Modeling land use change and forest carbon stock changes in temperate forests in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Forests provide the largest terrestrial sink of carbon (C). However, these C stocks are threatened by forest land conversion. Land use change has global impacts and is a critical component when studying C fluxes, but it is not always fully considered in C accounting despite being a major contributor to emissions. An urgent need exists among decision-makers to identify the likelihood of forest conversion to other land uses and factors affecting C loss. To help address this issue, we conducted our research in California, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin. The objectives were to (1) model the probability of forest conversion and C stocks dynamics using USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and (2) create wall-to-wall maps showing estimates of the risk of areas to convert from forest to non-forest. We used two modeling approaches: a machine learning algorithm (random forest) and generalized mixed-effects models. Explanatory variables for the models included ecological attributes, topography, census data, forest disturbances, and forest conditions. Model predictions and Landsat spectral information were used to produce wall-to-wall probability maps of forest change using Google Earth Engine. RESULTS: During the study period (2000-2017), 3.4% of the analyzed FIA plots transitioned from forest to mixed or non-forested conditions. Results indicate that the change in land use from forests is more likely with increasing human population and housing growth rates. Furthermore, non-public forests showed a higher probability of forest change compared to public forests. Areas closer to cities and coastal areas showed a higher risk of transition to non-forests. Out of the six states analyzed, Colorado had the highest risk of conversion and the largest amount of aboveground C lost. Natural forest disturbances were not a major predictor of land use change. CONCLUSIONS: Land use change is accelerating globally, causing a large increase in C emissions. Our results will help policy-makers prioritize forest management activities and land use planning by providing a quantitative framework that can enhance forest health and productivity. This work will also inform climate change mitigation strategies by understanding the role that land use change plays in C emissions.

An index for measuring functional extension and evenness in trait space.

Most existing functional diversity indices focus on a single facet of functional diversity. Although these indices are useful for quantifying specific aspects of functional diversity, they often present some conceptual or practical limitations in estimating functional diversity. Here, we present a new functional extension and evenness (FEE) index that encompasses two important aspects of functional diversity. This new index is based on the straightforward notion that a community has high diversity when its species are distant from each other in trait space. The index quantifies functional diversity by evaluating the overall extension of species traits and the interspecific differences of a species assemblage in trait space. The concept of minimum spanning tree (MST) of points was adopted to obtain the essential distribution properties for a species assembly in trait space. We combined the total length of MST branches (extension) and the variation of branch lengths (evenness) into a raw FEE0 metric and then translated FEE0 to a species richness-independent FEE index using a null model approach. We assessed the properties of FEE and used multiple approaches to evaluate its performance. The results show that the FEE index performs well in quantifying functional diversity and presents the following desired properties: (a) It allows a fair comparison of functional diversity across different species richness levels; (b) it preserves the essence of single-facet indices while overcoming some of their limitations; (c) it standardizes comparisons among communities by taking into consideration the trait space of the shared species pool; and (d) it has the potential to distinguish among different community assembly processes. With these attributes, we suggest that the FEE index is a promising metric to inform biodiversity conservation policy and management, especially in applications at large spatial and/or temporal scales.

Assessing the current and potential future distribution of four invasive forest plants in Minnesota, U.S.A., using mixed sources of data.

Invasive plants are an ongoing subject of interest in North American forests, owing to their impacts on forest structure and regeneration, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. An important component of studying and managing forest invaders involves knowing where the species are, or could be, geographically located. Temporal and environmental context, in conjunction with spatially-explicit species occurrence information, can be used to address this need. Here, we predict the potential current and future distributions of four forest plant invaders in Minnesota: common buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica), glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus), garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), and multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora). We assessed the impact of two different climate change scenarios (IPCC RCP 6.0 and 8.5) at two future timepoints (2050s and 2070s) as well as the importance of occurrence data sources on the potential distribution of each species. Our results suggest that climate change scenarios considered here could result in a potential loss of suitable habitat in Minnesota for both buckthorn species and a potential gain for R. multiflora and A. petiolata. Differences in predictions as a result of input occurrence data source were most pronounced in future climate projections.

Analyzing the impacts of forest disturbance on individual tree diameter increment across the US Lake States.

Disturbances play a critical role in forest ecosystem dynamics. Disturbances cause changes in forest structure which in turn influence the species composition of the site and alter landscape patterns over time. The impacts of disturbance are seen over a broad spectrum of spatial scales and varying intensities, ranging from biotic agents such as insect and leaf disease outbreaks to abiotic agents such as a windstorm (a stand-replacing disturbance). This study utilized Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data collected between 1999 and 2014 in the US Lake States (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to examine the impacts that disturbances have on the growth of residual trees using species-specific diameter increment equations. Results showed that animal and weather damage were the most common disturbance agents and fires were the least common in the region. Results also indicated that while the diameter increment equations performed well on average (overprediction of 0.08 ± 1.98 cm/10 years in non-disturbed stands), when the data were analyzed by species and disturbance agent, the model equation was rarely validated using equivalence tests (underprediction of 0.30 ± 2.24 cm/10 years in non-disturbed stands). This study highlights the importance of monitoring forest disturbances for their impacts on forest growth and yield.

The downed and dead wood inventory of forests in the United States.

The quantity and condition of downed dead wood (DDW) is emerging as a major factor governing forest ecosystem processes such as carbon cycling, fire behavior, and tree regeneration. Despite this, systematic inventories of DDW are sparse if not absent across major forest biomes. The Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the United States (US) Forest Service has conducted an annual DDW inventory on all coterminous US forest land since 2002 (~1 plot per 38,850 ha), with a sample intensification occurring since 2012 (~1 plot per 19,425 ha). The data are organized according to DDW components and by sampling information which can all be linked to a multitude of auxiliary information in the national database. As the sampling of DDW is conducted using field efficient line-intersect approaches, several assumptions are adopted during population estimation that serve to identify critical knowledge gaps. The plot- and population-level DDW datasets and estimates provide the first insights into an understudied but critical ecosystem component of temperate forests of North America with global application.

Spatial modeling of litter and soil carbon stocks on forest land in the conterminous United States.

Forest ecosystems contribute substantially to carbon (C) storage. The dynamics of litter decomposition, translocation and stabilization into soil layers are essential processes in the functioning of forest ecosystems, as these processes control the cycling of soil organic matter and the accumulation and release of C to the atmosphere. Therefore, the spatial distribution of litter and soil C stocks are important in greenhouse gas estimation and reporting and inform land management decisions, policy, and climate change mitigation strategies. Here we explored the effects of spatial aggregation of climatic, biotic, topographic and soil variables on national estimates of litter and soil C stocks and characterized the spatial distribution of litter and soil C stocks in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Litter and soil variables were measured on permanent sample plots (n = 3303) from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) within the United States from 2000 to 2011. These data were used with vegetation phenology data estimated from LANDSAT imagery (30 m) and raster data describing environmental variables for the entire CONUS to predict litter and soil C stocks. The total estimated litter C stock was 2.07 ±â€¯0.97 Pg with an average density of 10.45 ±â€¯2.38 Mg ha-1, and the soil C stock at 0-20 cm depth was 14.68 ±â€¯3.50 Pg with an average density of 62.68 ±â€¯8.98 Mg ha-1. This study extends NFI data from points to pixels providing spatially explicit and continuous predictions of litter and soil C stocks on forest land in the CONUS. The approaches described illustrate the utility of harmonizing field measurements with remotely sensed data to facilitate modeling and prediction across spatial scales in support of inventory, monitoring, and reporting activities, particularly in countries with ready access to remotely sensed data but with limited observations of litter and soil variables.

Quantifying impacts of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman) browse using forest inventory and socio-environmental datasets.

Elevated population levels of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman) can drastically alter forest ecosystems and negatively impact society through human interactions such as deer vehicle collisions. It is currently difficult to estimate deer populations at multiple scales ranging from stand, county, state, and regional levels. This presents a challenge as natural resource managers develop silvicultural prescriptions and forest management practices aimed at successfully regenerating tree species in the face of deer browsing. This study utilized measurements of deer browse impact from the new tree regeneration indicator developed by the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Seedling and sapling abundance and other plot-level characteristics were analyzed across three states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes Region of the United States. Socio-environmental datasets (Lyme disease cases, deer vehicle collisions, and deer density estimates) were used in conjunction with FIA data to determine their predictive power in estimating deer browse impacts by county. Predictions from random forests models indicate that using Lyme disease case reports, the number of deer-vehicle collisions, deer density estimates, and forest inventory information correctly predicted deer browse impact 70-90% of the time. Deer-vehicle collisions per county ranked highly important in the random forests for predicting deer browse impacts in all three states. Lyme disease cases ranked high in importance for the Lake States combined and for Minnesota and Wisconsin, separately. Results show the effectiveness of predicting deer browse impacts using a suite of freely available forest inventory and other socio-environmental information.

Estimating litter carbon stocks on forest land in the United States.

Forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth, with more than half of their net primary production moving to the soil via the decomposition of litter biomass. Therefore, changes in the litter carbon (C) pool have important implications for global carbon budgets and carbon emissions reduction targets and negotiations. Litter accounts for an estimated 5% of all forest ecosystem carbon stocks worldwide. Given the cost and time required to measure litter attributes, many of the signatory nations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change report estimates of litter carbon stocks and stock changes using default values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or country-specific models. In the United States, the country-specific model used to predict litter C stocks is sensitive to attributes on each plot in the national forest inventory, but these predictions are not associated with the litter samples collected over the last decade in the national forest inventory. Here we present, for the first time, estimates of litter carbon obtained using more than 5000 field measurements from the national forest inventory of the United States. The field-based estimates mark a 44% reduction (2081±77Tg) in litter carbon stocks nationally when compared to country-specific model predictions reported in previous United Framework Convention on Climate Change submissions. Our work suggests that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defaults and country-specific models used to estimate litter carbon in temperate forest ecosystems may grossly overestimate the contribution of this pool in national carbon budgets.

Comparisons of allometric and climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon stocks in forests of the United States.

BACKGROUND: Refined estimation of carbon (C) stocks within forest ecosystems is a critical component of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of projected climate change through forest C management. Specifically, belowground C stocks are currently estimated in the United States' national greenhouse gas inventory (US NGHGI) using nationally consistent species- and diameter-specific equations applied to individual trees. Recent scientific evidence has pointed to the importance of climate as a driver of belowground C stocks. This study estimates belowground C using current methods applied in the US NGHGI and describes a new approach for merging both allometric models with climate-derived predictions of belowground C stocks. RESULTS: Climate-adjusted predictions were variable depending on the region and forest type of interest, but represented an increase of 368.87 Tg of belowground C across the US, or a 6.4 % increase when compared to currently-implemented NGHGI estimates. Random forests regressions indicated that aboveground biomass, stand age, and stand origin (i.e., planted versus artificial regeneration) were useful predictors of belowground C stocks. Decreases in belowground C stocks were modeled after projecting mean annual temperatures at various locations throughout the US up to year 2090. CONCLUSIONS: By combining allometric equations with trends in temperature, we conclude that climate variables can be used to adjust the US NGHGI estimates of belowground C stocks. Such strategies can be used to determine the effects of future global change scenarios within a C accounting framework.