Individual Differences in Belief in Fake News about Election Fraud after the 2020 U.S. Election.

Fake news is a serious problem because it misinforms people about important issues. The present study examined belief in false headlines about election fraud after the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Belief in election fraud had dangerous consequences, including the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in January 2021. In the present study, participants rated the truthfulness of true and false headlines about the election, and then completed individual difference measures eight days after the election. Participants with more conservative ideology, greater presidential approval of the outgoing president, greater endorsement of general conspiracy narratives and poorer cognitive reflection demonstrated greater belief in false headlines about election fraud. Additionally, consuming more politically conservative election news was associated with greater belief in false headlines. Identifying the factors related to susceptibility to false claims of election fraud offers a path toward countering the influence of these claims by tailoring interventions aimed at decreasing belief in misinformation and decreasing conspiracy beliefs to those most susceptible.

Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism.

We propose a methodology, called defender-attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game-theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared-guided MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems), laser-guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure.

Comparison of BD Vacutainer® Rapid Serum Tube and plasma for haemolysis markers in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, a rapid-clotting serum tube, BD Vacutainer® Rapid Serum Tube (RST™), was introduced to improve turn-around times for serum samples. Previous studies reported reduced concentrations of some markers of haemolysis in RST specimens compared to other serum or plasma samples. We aimed to compare RST to plasma tubes for haemolysis markers in an emergency department (ED) setting, where increased rates of haemolysis are commonly seen. METHODS: Patients presenting to ED over an eight-day period had an RST, BD Vacutainer® PST™ II (plasma) Tube and BD Vacutainer® Heparin (non-gel, plasma) Tube collected. Blood was drawn from an intravenous cannula, and samples were promptly analysed for haemolysis index, potassium, phosphate, aspartate aminotrasferase (AST), magnesium and lactate dehydrogenase (LD). RESULTS: A total of 347 patient samples were included, and 9.2% of the PST samples were haemolysed. The RST tubes had small increases in all of the haemolysis markers compared to both plasma tubes (P ≤ 0.005), except LD which was lower in the RST group. There were no significant differences in the proportion of results above the upper reference limit between the tubes, except for LD which had a lower proportion in RST samples (P ≤ 0.002). CONCLUSION: Compared to plasma, RST specimens show small increases in several haemolysis markers, consistent with known differences between serum and plasma, but the proportion of elevated haemolysis markers is similar to plasma. In a setting with a high haemolysis rate such as ED, RST specimens provide a non-inferior sample type for markers of haemolysis.

Comparison of cardiac TnI outliers using a contemporary and a high-sensitivity assay on the Abbott Architect platform.

BACKGROUND: Assays for cardiac troponin (cTn) have undergone improvements in sensitivity and precision in recent years. Increased rates of outliers, however, have been reported on various cTn platforms, typically giving irreproducible, falsely higher results. We aimed to evaluate the outlier rate occurring in patients with elevated cTnI using a contemporary and high-sensitivity assay. METHODS: All patients with elevated cTnI (up to 300 ng/L) performed over a 21-month period were assayed in duplicate. A contemporary assay (Abbott STAT Troponin-I) was used for the first part of the study and subsequently a high-sensitivity assay (Abbott STAT High-Sensitive Troponin-I) was used. Outliers exceeded a calculated critical difference (CD) (CD = z × âˆš2 × SDAnalytical) where z = 3.5 (for probability of 0.0005) and critical outliers also were on a different side of the decision level. RESULTS: The respective outlier and critical outlier rates were 0.22% and 0.10% for the contemporary assay (n = 4009) and 0.18% and 0.13% for the high-sensitivity assay (n = 3878). There was no significant reduction in outlier rate between the two assays (χ(2) = 0.034, P = 0.854). Fifty-six percent of outliers occurred in samples where cTn was an 'add-on' test (and was stored and refrigerated prior to assay). CONCLUSION: Despite recent improvements in cTn methods, outliers (including critical outliers) still occur at a low rate in both a contemporary and high-sensitivity cTnI assay. Laboratory and clinical staff should be aware of this potential analytical error, particularly in samples with suboptimal sample handling such as add-on tests.

Mammary artery to saphenous vein composite T grafts for coronary artery bypass: late follow-up.

AIM: Composite arterial grafts using a T configuration from the left internal mammary artery (LIMA) are commonly used for coronary artery surgery. Little data exist regarding the use of saphenous vein (SV) in composite grafts from the LIMA. This study aimed to determine whether LIMA patency was reduced by the attachment of a SV T graft. METHODS: Patients (N.=166) who underwent coronary bypass surgery using the LIMA for SV graft inflow were identified from a database. Post discharge angiography was performed for investigation of symptoms or evidence of myocardial ischemia. Follow-up identified episodes of angiography, re-intervention and death. RESULTS: Complete follow-up was obtained in 165 patients, mean 6 years (0-16 years). The mean patient age was 70 years and 43 patients underwent concomitant procedures. In 25 patients who underwent post discharge angiography, the LIMA and T anastomoses were widely patent in 14 patients. The SV graft was occluded at the T anastomosis in 8 patients and the distal limb of the LIMA was occluded in 2 patients. In no patients were the vein and LIMA both occluded. CONCLUSION: The use of the LIMA for SV graft inflow does not appear to compromise the LIMA graft even when SV graft occlusion occurs.

Case-control study of cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy born after July 31, 1996 (BARB cases) in Great Britain.

This paper reports the results of a case-control study of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases born in Great Britain after the statutory reinforcement of the ban (BARB) on the feeding of mammalian-derived meat and bone meal on 31 July 1996. A total of 499 suspect clinical cases of BSE, born after 31 July 1996, and reported negative by July 31, 1996 and were compared with the set of 164 confirmed Great BARB cases in Great Britain detected by both passive and active surveillance. Animal-level risk factors (age and type of feed offered) and herd-level risk factors (herd size and type, number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases born on the holding, the presence of other domestic species and waste management) were obtained for the analysis. BARB cases were 2.56 times (95 per cent CI 1.29 to 5.07) more likely to be exposed to homemix or a combination of homemix and proprietary feeds were 0.59 times (95 per cent CI 0.50 to 0.69) as less likely to be exposed to the unit increases in the number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases diagnosed on the natal holding. A supplementary spatial analysis of these cases revealed three areas of excess BARB density: Northwest and Southwest of Wales and Northeast of Scotland.

Descriptive epidemiological features of cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy born after July 31, 1996 in Great Britain.

This paper describes the results of analyses of the epidemiological features of the 164 cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain that were born after the introduction of the reinforced legislation introduced on August 1, 1996 (BARB cases) and that were detected before December 31, 2008. This additional control measure prohibited the use of mammalian meat and bone meal (MMBM) in feed for farm animals to prevent further exposure of cattle to the BSE agent. There was a pronounced reduction in the risk of infection, by three orders of magnitude, for cattle born after July 31, 1996 compared with that for cattle born earlier, and a statistically significant exponential reduction in the estimated prevalence between successive annual birth cohorts after this date. There was no evidence that a significant number of these cases occurred as a result of a maternally associated risk factor, infection from environmental contamination (other than from feedstuffs) or as a result of a genetically based aetiology. The epidemiological features were consistent with an exogenous feedborne source as a result of a reliance on imported feedstuffs in Great Britain and the later introduction of a ban on the use of MMBM in other EU member states on January 1, 2001.

Use of laboratory data to reduce the time taken to detect new diseases: VIDA to FarmFile.

The analysis of laboratory data can provide information about the health of livestock populations; in Great Britain the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) system has provided such data since 1975. However VIDA covers only known diagnoses, with limited epidemiological characterisation. The unexpected outbreak of bse showed that it was necessary to improve surveillance to detect new diseases, and a necessary update of the VIDA database for the millennium date change provided the opportunity. The information required to enhance the value of laboratory data was identified, a new form and database, 'FarmFile', were designed to record it, and they began to be used in 1999. The detection of new diseases depends on making comparisons with the expected or 'usual' levels of unexplained disease. The data are analysed quarterly to assess any changes in the levels of unexplained disease in different species, categorised in terms of clinical sign or body system, by comparison with previous years. No new diseases have been detected either through FarmFile or more traditional means since the new analyses started in earnest in 2004, but they have indicated that an unexplained event was not a new disease of concern, and developments continue to improve the system's sensitivity and specificity.

Estimating the temporal relationship between PrPSc detection and incubation period in experimental bovine spongiform encephalopathy of cattle.

This study examines tissues from sequential-kill, time-course pathogenesis studies to refine estimates of the age at which disease-specific PrP (PrP(Sc)) can first be detected in the central nervous system (CNS) and related peripheral nervous system ganglia of cattle incubating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Such estimates are important for risk assessments of the age at which these tissues should be removed from cattle at slaughter to prevent human and animal exposure to BSE infection. Tissues were examined from cattle dosed orally with 100 or 1 g BSE-infected brain. Incubation period data for the doses were obtained from attack rate and the sequential-kill studies. A statistical model, fitted by maximum likelihood, accounted for the differences in the lognormal incubation period and the logistic probability of infection between different dose groups. Initial detection of PrP(Sc) during incubation was invariably in the brainstem and the earliest was at 30 and 44 months post-exposure for the 100 g- and 1 g-dosed sequential-kill study groups, respectively. The point at which PrP(Sc) in 50 % of the animals would be detected by immunohistochemistry applied to medulla-obex was estimated at 9.6 and 1.7 months before clinical onset for the 100 g- and 1 g-dosed cattle, respectively, with a low probability of detection in any of the tissues examined at more than 12 months before clinical onset. PrP(Sc) was detected inconsistently in dorsal root ganglia, concurrent with or after detection in CNS, and not at all in certain sympathetic nervous system ganglia.

Area-level risks for BSE in British cattle before and after the July 1988 meat and bone meal feed ban.

In this paper we investigate area-level risk factors for BSE for the cattle population present in Great Britain between 1986 and 1997. By dividing this population into two birth cohorts, those born before the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal to ruminants and those born after, second-order regional influences are distinguished from the strong first-order south-to-north gradient of area-level BSE risk using Bayesian hierarchical models that account for structured (spatially correlated) and unstructured heterogeneity in the data. For both cohorts area-level risk of BSE was increased by a more southerly location and greater numbers of dairy cattle, relative to non-dairy cattle. For the cohort of cattle born after the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal area-level BSE risk was additionally associated with greater numbers of pigs, relative to cattle. These findings support the role of low level cross-contamination of cattle feed by pig feed as an influence on BSE incidence risk as the epidemic evolved. Prior to the 1988 meat and bone meal ban unexplained BSE risk was relatively uniformly distributed across the country whereas after the ban there were spatially aggregated areas of unexplained risk in the northern and eastern regions of England suggesting that local influences allowed BSE control measures to be less-successfully applied in these areas, compared with the rest of the country. We conclude that spatially localised influences were operating in divergent ways during the two phases of the epidemic.

Prevalence of faecal excretion of verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 in cattle in England and Wales.

During the decade to 1999, the incidence of human infections with the zoonotic pathogen verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) increased in England and Wales. This paper describes the results of a survey of 75 farms to determine the prevalence of faecal excretion of VTEC O157 by cattle, its primary reservoir host, in England and Wales. Faecal samples were collected from 4663 cattle between June and December 1999. The prevalence of excretion by individual cattle was 4.2 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 6.4) and 10.3 per cent (95 per cent CI 5.8 to 14.8) among animals in infected herds. The within-herd prevalence on positive farms ranged from 1.1 to 51.4 per cent. At least one positive animal was identified on 29 (38.7 per cent; 95 per cent CI 28.1 to 50.4) of the farms, including dairy, suckler and fattening herds. The prevalence of excretion was least in the calves under two months of age, peaked in the calves aged between two and six months and declined thereafter. The phage types identified most widely were 4, 34 and 2, which were each found on six of the 29 positive farms.

Faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and sheep at slaughter in Great Britain.

A 12-month abattoir survey was conducted between January 1999 and January 2000, to determine the prevalence of faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) in cattle and sheep slaughtered for human consumption in Great Britain. Samples of rectum containing faeces were collected from 3939 cattle and 4171 sheep at 118 abattoirs, in numbers proportional to the throughput of the premises. The annual prevalence of faecal carriage of VTEC O157 was 4.7 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 4.1 to 5.4) for cattle and 1.7 per cent (1.3 to 2.1) for sheep, values which were statistically significantly different from each other (P < 0.001). The organisms were recovered from both cattle and sheep slaughtered throughout the year and at abattoirs in all regions of the country, but the highest prevalence was in the summer. The most frequency recovered VTEC O157 isolates were phage types 2, 8 and 21/28 in cattle and 4 and 32 in sheep, the five most frequently isolated phage types associated with illness in people in Great Britain during the same period.

Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months.

In February 2001, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Great Britain. A major epidemic developed, which peaked around 50 cases a day in late March, declining to under 10 a day by May. By mid-July, 1849 cases had been detected. The main control measures employed were livestock movement restrictions and the rapid slaughter of infected and exposed livestock. The first detected case was in south-east England; infection was traced to a farm in north-east England to which all other cases were linked. The epidemic was large as a result of a combination of events, including a delay in the diagnosis of the index case, the movement of infected sheep to market before FMD was first diagnosed, and the time of year. Virus was introduced at a time when there were many sheep movements around the country and weather conditions supported survival of the virus. The consequence was multiple, effectively primary, introductions of FMD virus into major sheep-keeping areas. Subsequent local spread from these introductions accounted for the majority of cases. The largest local epidemics were in areas with dense sheep populations and livestock dealers who were active during the key period. Most affected farms kept both sheep and cattle. At the time of writing the epidemic was still ongoing; however, this paper provides a basis for scientific discussion of the first five months.

Descriptive spatial analysis of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain to June 1997.

This was a spatial analysis of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain, based on agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996 and BSE case data collected up to June 1997. Kernel smoothing techniques were used to plot the distribution of BSE-positive cattle holdings per 100 holdings per square kilometre and the distribution of confirmed BSE cases per 100 head of cattle per square kilometre. In the early stages of the epidemic reported BSE cases were scattered widely throughout Great Britain, with no clearly identifiable focus. By June 1997, a statistically significant cluster of BSE-positive holdings was identifiable in the eastern part of the South west region of England. During the epidemic the highest densities of confirmed BSE cases per 100 cattle per square kilometre occurred in the greater part of the South west region of England and within Dyfed in the south west of Wales. In Wales, a small number of holdings experienced large numbers of confirmed BSE cases. In the South west region of England a large number of holdings experienced small numbers of confirmed cases. By June 1997, the distribution of BSE-positive holdings across Great Britain was largely determined by factors that influenced the amount of recycled infectious material they were exposed to.

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: individual animal-associated risk factors for the disease.

The objectives of this study were first to determine the cumulative incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population from July 1986 to June 1997, secondly, to identify individual animal-associated risk factors that influenced the age of onset of clinical signs in confirmed BSE cases, and, thirdly, to assess the effectiveness of the measures introduced to control BSE during the epidemic. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was individual adult cattle recorded on annual agricultural censuses between June 1986 and June 1996. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to characterise the age of onset of clinical signs. In total 167,366 cases of BSE were diagnosed in Great Britain up to June 30, 1997. The cumulative incidence of BSE between July 1986 and June 1997 was 1.10 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.10) cases per 100 adult cattle at risk. Cattle from the South east, South west and Eastern regions of England had 4.26 to 5.96 (95 per cent CI 4.15 to 6.14) times as great a monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE as cattle from Scotland. Compared with cattle born before June 1985, those born between July 1987 and June 1988 had 22.5 (95 per cent CI 22.1 to 22.8) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE, whereas those born in the 12 months after July 1988 had only 7.39 (95 per cent CI 7.24 to 7.54) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE. This reduction in hazard was directly attributable to the ban on the use of ruminant protein as a feed instituted in July 1988. Successive cohorts from 1989 to 1991 experienced further reductions in the hazard of experiencing BSE. The additional decrease in hazard observed for the 1990 cohort may be attributed to the effect of the Specified Bovine Offal ban instituted in September 1990.

Temporal aspects of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Great Britain: holding-associated risk factors for the disease.

The objectives of this study were first to describe the pattern of the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain in terms of the temporal change in the proportion of all cattle holdings that had experienced at least one confirmed case of BSE to June 30, 1997, and secondly to identify risk factors that influenced the date of onset of a holding's first confirmed BSE case. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and the BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was the cattle holding and included all those recorded at least once on annual agricultural censuses conducted between June 30, 1986, and June 30, 1996. The outcome of interest was the date on which clinical signs were recorded in a holding's first confirmed case of BSE, termed the BSE onset date. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to describe the temporal pattern of the epidemic. The BSE epidemic in Great Britain started in November 1986, with the majority of affected holdings having their BSE onset date after February 1992. After adjusting for the effect of the size and type of holding, holdings in the south of England (specifically those in the Eastern, South east and South west regions) had 2.22 to 2.43 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.07 to 2.58) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings in Scotland. After adjusting for the effect of region and type of holding, holdings with more than 53 adult cattle had 5.91 (95 per cent CI 5.62 to 6.21) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as holdings with seven to 21 adult cattle. Dairy holdings had 3.06 (95 per cent CI 2.96 to 3.16) times as great a monthly hazard of having a BSE index case as beef suckler holdings. These analyses show that there were different rates of onset in different regions and in holdings of different sizes and types, that the epidemic was propagated most strongly in the south of the country, and that the growth of the epidemic followed essentially the same pattern in each region of the country, with modest temporal lags between them. The control measures imposed in 1988 and 1990 brought the expansion of the epidemic under control, although the rate of progress was slowed by those regions where the effectiveness of the control methods took some time to take full effect.

A brain dead donor model of porcine orthotopic cardiac transplantation for assessment of cardiac allograft preservation.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop a large animal model of orthotopic cardiac transplantation, incorporating donor brain death, to assess new methods of preservation of the donor heart. METHODS: Brain death was achieved in the donor pig by inflation of a 20 cc subdural balloon 1 h prior to harvest. The donor heart was stored for 6 h with conventional hypothermic ischaemic preservation. It was then transplanted orthotopically into the recipient pig using the Lower and Shumway technique. One hour after reperfusion, the transplanted heart was weaned from cardiopulmonary bypass with dobutamine support. Dobutamine support was continued for up to 4 h, if required. After 6 h of physiological and biochemical evaluation, the recipient was euthanased and the heart excised for histological assessment. RESULTS: All pigs experienced the classical haemodynamic changes associated with brain death. This resulted in the release of Troponin I, consistent with myocardial injury. The donor operation was successfully completed in 11 out of 13 pigs. Six out of 11 transplanted hearts were successfully weaned from cardiopulmonary bypass, but required ongoing dobutamine support. CONCLUSIONS: This porcine model of orthotopic cardiac transplantation is a relevant and practical large animal model for the assessment of new methods of preservation of the donor heart.