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People with HIV have a higher risk of fracture than the general population. Because of the low performance of the existing prediction tools, there is controversy surrounding fracture risk estimation in this population. The aim of the study was to develop a model for predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures in people with HIV. We included 11,899 individuals aged ≥30 years from the Spanish HIV/AIDS research network cohort. We identified incident fragility fractures from medical records, defined as nontraumatic or those occurring after a casual fall, at major osteoporotic sites (hip, clinical spine, forearm, proximal humerus). Our model accounted for the competing risk of death and included 12 candidate predictors to estimate the time to first fragility fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model and compared it with the FRAX tool. The incidence rate of fragility fractures was 4.34 (95% CI 3.61 to 5.22) per 1000 person-years. The final prediction model included age, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as significant predictors. The model accurately predicted the 5- and 10-year risk of fragility fractures, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.768 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.814) and agreement between the observed and expected probabilities. Furthermore, it demonstrated better discrimination and calibration than the FRAX tool, improving the classification of over 35% of individuals with fragility fractures compared to FRAX. Our prediction model demonstrated accuracy in predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures. It can assist in making personalized intervention decisions for individuals with HIV and could potentially replace the current tools recommended for fracture risk assessment in this population. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
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INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Excess weight can cause structural and functional cardiac disorders. The presence of left ventricular hypertrophy in the obese patient is an independent predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The major aim of the present study is to know the prevalence of cardiac morphofunctional disorders in obese patients, before and after weight loss due to bariatric surgery (BS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 75 patients with obesity without known heart disease referred to gastric bypass. Anthropometric, analytical and echocardiographic parameters were measured before and after 6 and 12 months after BS. RESULTS: The study included 75 patients (66.6% women, mean age 39.3 [9.7] years and BMI 47.8 [7.1] kg/m2). At 6 and 12 months after BS there was a significant reduction in body weight and an improvement in metabolic, inflammatory and prothrombotic parameters and in cardiovascular risk factors associated with obesity (hypertension, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia and obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome). Before surgery, cardiac remodeling was present in 62.7%, most frequently in the form of concentric remodeling (38.7%). Diastolic dysfunction occurred in 50.7% of the patients. One year after surgery, the ventricular pattern was normal in 92% of cases and the diastolic function improved significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the negative effect of obesity on cardiac geometry and function and the potential reversibility of these cardiac alterations after marked weight loss due to BS.