The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants.

A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth's plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth's ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth's plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.

Late Quaternary climate legacies in contemporary plant functional composition.

The functional composition of plant communities is commonly thought to be determined by contemporary climate. However, if rates of climate-driven immigration and/or exclusion of species are slow, then contemporary functional composition may be explained by paleoclimate as well as by contemporary climate. We tested this idea by coupling contemporary maps of plant functional trait composition across North and South America to paleoclimate means and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation from the Last Interglacial (120 ka) to the present. Paleoclimate predictors strongly improved prediction of contemporary functional composition compared to contemporary climate predictors, with a stronger influence of temperature in North America (especially during periods of ice melting) and of precipitation in South America (across all times). Thus, climate from tens of thousands of years ago influences contemporary functional composition via slow assemblage dynamics.

Isoprene emission structures tropical tree biogeography and community assembly responses to climate.

The prediction of vegetation responses to climate requires a knowledge of how climate-sensitive plant traits mediate not only the responses of individual plants, but also shifts in the species and functional compositions of whole communities. The emission of isoprene gas - a trait shared by one-third of tree species - is known to protect leaf biochemistry under climatic stress. Here, we test the hypothesis that isoprene emission shapes tree species compositions in tropical forests by enhancing the tolerance of emitting trees to heat and drought. Using forest inventory data, we estimated the proportional abundance of isoprene-emitting trees (pIE) at 103 lowland tropical sites. We also quantified the temporal composition shifts in three tropical forests - two natural and one artificial - subjected to either anomalous warming or drought. Across the landscape, pIE increased with site mean annual temperature, but decreased with dry season length. Through time, pIE strongly increased under high temperatures, and moderately increased following drought. Our analysis shows that isoprene emission is a key plant trait determining species responses to climate. For species adapted to seasonal dry periods, isoprene emission may tradeoff with alternative strategies, such as leaf deciduousness. Community selection for isoprene-emitting species is a potential mechanism for enhanced forest resilience to climatic change.

Stress from cold and drought as drivers of functional trait spectra in North American angiosperm tree assemblages.

Understanding how environmental change alters the composition of plant assemblages, and how this in turn affects ecosystem functioning is a major challenge in the face of global climate change. Assuming that values of plant traits express species adaptations to the environment, the trait-based approach is a promising way to achieve this goal. Nevertheless, how functional traits are related to species' environmental tolerances and how trait spectra respond to broad-scale environmental gradients remains largely unexplored. Here, we identify the main trait spectra for US angiosperm trees by testing hypotheses for the relationships between functional traits and species' environmental tolerances to environmental stresses, as well as quantifying the environmental drivers of assemblage means and variances of these traits. We analyzed >74,000 community assemblages from the US Forest Inventory and Analysis using 12 functional traits, five traits expressing species' environmental tolerances and 10 environmental variables. Results indicated that leaf traits, dispersal traits, and traits related to stem hydraulics were related to cold or drought tolerance, and their assemblage means were best explained by minimum temperatures. Assemblage means of traits related to shade tolerance (tree growth rate, leaf phosphorus content, and bark thickness) were best explained by aridity index. Surprisingly, aridity index, rather than minimum temperature, was the best predictors of assemblage variances of most traits, although these relationships were variable and weak overall. We conclude that temperature is likely to be the most important driver of functional community structure of North American angiosperm trees by selecting for optimum strategies along the cold and drought stress trade-off. In turn, water availability primarily affects traits related to shade tolerance through its effect on forest canopy structure and vegetation openness.

Functional trait space and the latitudinal diversity gradient.

The processes causing the latitudinal gradient in species richness remain elusive. Ecological theories for the origin of biodiversity gradients, such as competitive exclusion, neutral dynamics, and environmental filtering, make predictions for how functional diversity should vary at the alpha (within local assemblages), beta (among assemblages), and gamma (regional pool) scales. We test these predictions by quantifying hypervolumes constructed from functional traits representing major axes of plant strategy variation (specific leaf area, plant height, and seed mass) in tree assemblages spanning the temperate and tropical New World. Alpha-scale trait volume decreases with absolute latitude and is often lower than sampling expectation, consistent with environmental filtering theory. Beta-scale overlap decays with geographic distance fastest in the temperate zone, again consistent with environmental filtering theory. In contrast, gamma-scale trait space shows a hump-shaped relationship with absolute latitude, consistent with no theory. Furthermore, the overall temperate trait hypervolume was larger than the overall tropical hypervolume, indicating that the temperate zone permits a wider range of trait combinations or that niche packing is stronger in the tropical zone. Although there are limitations in the data, our analyses suggest that multiple processes have shaped trait diversity in trees, reflecting no consistent support for any one theory.

Comment on "High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change".

Hansen et al. (Reports, 15 November 2013, p. 850) published a high-resolution global forest map with detailed information on local forest loss and gain. We show that their product does not distinguish tropical forests from plantations and even herbaceous crops, which leads to a substantial underestimate of forest loss and compromises its value for local policy decisions.

Habitat area and climate stability determine geographical variation in plant species range sizes.

Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~ 85 000 plant species across the New World. We assess prominent hypothesised range-size controls, finding that plant range sizes are codetermined by habitat area and long- and short-term climate stability. Strong short- and long-term climate instability in large parts of North America, including past glaciations, are associated with broad-ranged species. In contrast, small habitat areas and a stable climate characterise areas with high concentrations of small-ranged species in the Andes, Central America and the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest region. The joint roles of area and climate stability strengthen concerns over the potential effects of future climate change and habitat loss on biodiversity.

The leaf-area shrinkage effect can bias paleoclimate and ecology research.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Leaf area is a key trait that links plant form, function, and environment. Measures of leaf area can be biased because leaf area is often estimated from dried or fossilized specimens that have shrunk by an unknown amount. We tested the common assumption that this shrinkage is negligible. METHODS: We measured shrinkage by comparing dry and fresh leaf area in 3401 leaves of 380 temperate and tropical species and used phylogenetic and trait-based approaches to determine predictors of this shrinkage. We also tested the effects of rehydration and simulated fossilization on shrinkage in four species. KEY RESULTS: We found that dried leaves shrink in area by an average of 22% and a maximum of 82%. Shrinkage in dried leaves can be predicted by multiple morphological traits with a standard deviation of 7.8%. We also found that mud burial, a proxy for compression fossilization, caused negligible shrinkage, and that rehydration, a potential treatment of dried herbarium specimens, eliminated shrinkage. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that the amount of shrinkage is driven by variation in leaf area, leaf thickness, evergreenness, and woodiness and can be reversed by rehydration. The amount of shrinkage may also be a useful trait related to ecologically and physiological differences in drought tolerance and plant life history.

Ecological effects of cell-level processes: genome size, functional traits and regional abundance of herbaceous plant species.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genome size is known to be correlated with a number of phenotypic traits associated with cell sizes and cell-division rates. Genome size was therefore used as a proxy for them in order to assess how common plant traits such as height, specific leaf area and seed size/number predict species regional abundance. In this study it is hypothesized that if there is residual correlation between genome size and abundance after these traits are partialled out, there must be additional ecological effects of cell size and/or cell-division rate. METHODS: Variation in genome size, plant traits and regional abundance were examined in 436 herbaceous species of central European flora, and relationships were sought for among these variables by correlation and path analysis. KEY RESULTS: Species regional abundance was weakly but significantly correlated with genome size; the relationship was stronger for annuals (R(2) = 0·145) than for perennials (R(2) = 0·027). In annuals, genome size was linked to abundance via its effect on seed size, which constrains seed number and hence population growth rate. In perennials, it weakly affected (via height and specific leaf area) competitive ability. These relationships did not change qualitatively after phylogenetic correction. In both annuals and perennials there was an unresolved effect of genome size on abundance. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that additional predictors of regional abundance should be sought among variables that are linked to cell size and cell-division rate. Signals of these cell-level processes remain identifiable even at the landscape scale, and show deep differences between perennials and annuals. Plant population biology could thus possibly benefit from more systematic use of indicators of cell-level processes.

Geometrical constraints in the scaling relationships between genome size, cell size and cell cycle length in herbaceous plants.

Plant nuclear genome size (GS) varies over three orders of magnitude and is correlated with cell size and growth rate. We explore whether these relationships can be owing to geometrical scaling constraints. These would produce an isometric GS-cell volume relationship, with the GS-cell diameter relationship with the exponent of 1/3. In the GS-cell division relationship, duration of processes limited by membrane transport would scale at the 1/3 exponent, whereas those limited by metabolism would show no relationship. We tested these predictions by estimating scaling exponents from 11 published datasets on differentiated and meristematic cells in diploid herbaceous plants. We found scaling of GS-cell size to almost perfectly match the prediction. The scaling exponent of the relationship between GS and cell cycle duration did not match the prediction. However, this relationship consists of two components: (i) S phase duration, which depends on GS, and has the predicted 1/3 exponent, and (ii) a GS-independent threshold reflecting the duration of the G1 and G2 phases. The matches we found for the relationships between GS and both cell size and S phase duration are signatures of geometrical scaling. We propose that a similar approach can be used to examine GS effects at tissue and whole plant levels.