The roles of acclimation and behaviour in buffering climate change impacts along elevational gradients.

The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioural adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high-elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioural thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.

Ontogenetic reduction in thermal tolerance is not alleviated by earlier developmental acclimation in Rana temporaria.

Complex life-histories may promote the evolution of different strategies to allow optimal matching to the environmental conditions that organisms can encounter in contrasting environments. For ectothermic animals, we need to disentangle the role of stage-specific thermal tolerances and developmental acclimation to predict the effects of climate change on spatial distributions. However, the interplay between these mechanisms has been poorly explored. Here we study whether developmental larval acclimation to rearing temperatures affects the thermal tolerance of subsequent terrestrial stages (metamorphs and juveniles) in common frogs (Rana temporaria). Our results show that larval acclimation to warm temperatures enhances larval heat tolerance, but not thermal tolerance in later metamorphic and juvenile stages, which does not support the developmental acclimation hypothesis. Further, metamorphic and juvenile individuals exhibit a decline in thermal tolerance, which would confer higher sensitivity to extreme temperatures. Because thermal tolerance is not enhanced by larval developmental acclimation, these 'risky' stages may be forced to compensate through behavioural thermoregulation and short-term acclimation to face eventual heat peaks in the coming decades.

Hindered and constrained: limited potential for thermal adaptation in post-metamorphic and adult Rana temporaria along elevational gradients.

Adaptation to warming climates could counteract the effects of global warming. Thus, understanding how species cope with contrasting climates may inform us about their potential for thermal adaptation and which processes may hamper that ability (e.g. evolutionary trade-offs, phenology or behavioural thermoregulation). In addition to temperature, time constraints may also exert important selective pressures. Here, we compare the thermal sensitivity of locomotion of metamorphic and adult European common frogs (Rana temporaria) originating from populations along an elevational gradient. We employed the template mode of variation (TMV) analysis to decompose the thermal sensitivity of locomotion and explore the existence of trade-offs ('hotter is better' and 'specialist-generalist') and the degree of local adaptation. To that end, we studied the relationship between TMV parameters and local environmental conditions. Further, we compared preferred temperatures to assess whether behavioural thermoregulation could dampen the effects of thermal variation, reducing the intensity of selection and limiting thermal adaptation (i.e. 'Bogert effect'). We suggest that behavioural thermoregulation has promoted the conservatism of thermal sensitivity in R. temporaria. Yet, we observed a trend towards narrower thermal niches shifted towards warmer temperature in populations with severe temporal constraints, conforming to the 'generalist-specialist' trade-off. Apparently, this enables time-constrained populations - especially in the case of metamorphs - to effectively exploit resources during the warmest periods. The limited potential of R. temporaria for thermal adaptation suggests that forecasts of global warming should incorporate thermoregulation and explore its potential to buffer species from rising temperatures.