Stakeholder-informed positivity thresholds for disease markers and risk scores: a methodological framework and an application in obstructive lung disease.

OBJECTIVES: A positivity threshold is often applied to markers or predicted risks to guide disease management. These thresholds are often decided exclusively by clinical experts despite being sensitive to the preferences of patients and general public as ultimate stakeholders. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We propose an analytical framework for quantifying the net benefit (NB) of an evidence-based positivity threshold based on combining preference-sensitive (eg, how individuals weight benefits and harms of treatment) and preference-agnostic (eg, the magnitude of benefit and the risk of harm) parameters. We propose parsimonious choice experiments to elicit preference-sensitive parameters from stakeholders, and targeted evidence synthesis to quantify the value of preference-agnostic parameters. We apply this framework to maintenance of azithromycin therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using a discrete choice experiment to estimate preference weights for attribute level associated with treatment. We identify the positivity threshold on 12-month moderate or severe exacerbation risk that would maximize the NB of treatment in terms of severe exacerbations avoided. RESULTS: In the case study, the prevention of moderate and severe exacerbations (benefits) and the risk of hearing loss and gastrointestinal symptoms (harms) emerged as important attributes. Four hundred seventy seven respondents completed the discrete choice experiment survey. Relative to each percent risk of severe exacerbation, preference weights for each percent risk of moderate exacerbation, hearing loss, and gastrointestinal symptoms were 0.395 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.338-0.456), 1.180 (95% CI 1.071-1.201), and 0.253 (95% CI 0.207-0.299), respectively. The optimal threshold that maximized NB was to treat patients with a 12-month risk of moderate or severe exacerbations ≥12%. CONCLUSION: The proposed methodology can be applied to many contexts where the objective is to devise positivity thresholds that need to incorporate stakeholder preferences. Applying this framework to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease pharmacotherapy resulted in a stakeholder-informed treatment threshold that was substantially lower than the implicit thresholds in contemporary guidelines. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Doctors often compare disease markers (such as laboratory results) or risk scores for a patient with cut-off values from guidelines to decide which patients need to be treated. For example, guidelines recommend that patients whose 10-year risk of heart attack is more than 10% be given statin pills. However, guidelines that recommend such treatment rules might not consider what matters most to patients (like how much they do not like side effects of the drugs). In this study, we propose a mathematical method where preferences of individuals on the trade-off between treatment benefits and harms can be used to determine the best treatment rule. We apply this method to the choice of antibiotic therapy for patients with lung airway diseases. We find that, given patient and public preferences on treatment benefit and risks, those with a 12% or more risk of experiencing a lung attack should receive antibiotic therapy. This patient-oriented cut-off is significantly lower than the cut-off values currently used by guidelines, which are in the 60%-70% range. We recommend applying this method whenever scientists must make recommendations on treatment rules where patient or public preferences might influence those rules.

Socioeconomic burden of cystic fibrosis in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Cost of illness studies are important tools to summarise the burden of disease for individuals, the healthcare system and society. The lack of standardised methods for reporting costs for cystic fibrosis (CF) makes it difficult to quantify the total socioeconomic burden. In this study, we aimed to comprehensively report the socioeconomic burden of CF in Canada. METHODS: The total cost of CF in Canada was calculated by triangulating information from three sources (Canadian CF Registry, customised Burden of Disease survey and publicly available information). A prevalence-based, bottom-up, human capital approach was applied, and costs were categorised into four perspectives (ie, healthcare system, individual/caregiver, variable (ie, medicines) and society) and three domains (ie, direct, indirect and intangible). All costs were converted into 2021 Canadian dollars (CAD) and adjusted for inflation. The cost of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator therapies was excluded. RESULTS: The total socioeconomic burden of CF in Canada in 2021 across the four perspectives was $C414 million. Direct costs accounted for two-thirds of the total costs, with medications comprising half of all direct costs. Out-of-pocket costs to individuals and caregivers represented 18.7% of all direct costs. Indirect costs representing absenteeism accounted for one-third of the total cost. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive cost of illness study for CF represents a community-oriented approach describing the socioeconomic burden of living with CF and serves as a benchmark for future studies.

Real-world cost-effectiveness of panel-based genomic testing to inform therapeutic decisions for metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in KRAS and NRAS are associated with a lack of response to cetuximab and panitumumab, two biologics used for third-line therapy of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). In British Columbia, Canada, eligibility for cetuximab or panitumumab was first based on single-gene KRAS testing. OncoPanel, a multi-gene next-generation sequencing panel with both KRAS and NRAS, was introduced in 2016. Our objective was to estimate the real-world cost-effectiveness of OncoPanel versus to single-gene KRAS testing to inform eligibility for cetuximab or panitumumab in mCRC. METHODS: Using population-based administrative health data, we identified a cohort of mCRC patients who had received a KRAS or OncoPanel test, and completed prior chemotherapy in 2010-2019. We matched KRAS- and OncoPanel-tested patients (1:1) using genetic matching to balance baseline covariates. Mean and incremental 3-year costs, survival, and quality-adjusted survival were estimated using inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting and bootstrapping. We conducted scenario-based sensitivity analysis for key costs and assumptions. FINDINGS: All OncoPanel-tested cases (n=371) were matched to a KRAS-tested comparator. In the KRAS and OncoPanel groups, respectively, 55·8 % and 41·2 % of patients were potentially eligible for cetuximab or panitumumab based on mutation status. Incremental cost and effectiveness of OncoPanel were $72 (95 % CI: -6387, 6107), -0·004 life-years (95 % CI: -0·119, 0·113), and -0·011 quality-adjusted life-years (95 % CI: -0·094, 0·075). Reductions in systemic therapy costs were offset by increased costs in other resources. Results were moderately sensitive to time horizon and changes in testing or treatment cost. INTERPRETATION: The use of OncoPanel resulted in more precise targeting of cetuximab and panitumumab, but there was no change in incremental cost or quality-adjusted survival. Understanding the balance of costs achieved in practice can provide insight into the effect of future changes in testing policy, test cost, treatment eligibility, or drug prices in this setting.

Non-parametric inference on calibration of predicted risks.

Moderate calibration, the expected event probability among observations with predicted probability z being equal to z, is a desired property of risk prediction models. Current graphical and numerical techniques for evaluating moderate calibration of risk prediction models are mostly based on smoothing or grouping the data. As well, there is no widely accepted inferential method for the null hypothesis that a model is moderately calibrated. In this work, we discuss recently-developed, and propose novel, methods for the assessment of moderate calibration for binary responses. The methods are based on the limiting distributions of functions of standardized partial sums of prediction errors converging to the corresponding laws of Brownian motion. The novel method relies on well-known properties of the Brownian bridge which enables joint inference on mean and moderate calibration, leading to a unified "bridge" test for detecting miscalibration. Simulation studies indicate that the bridge test is more powerful, often substantially, than the alternative test. As a case study we consider a prediction model for short-term mortality after a heart attack, where we provide suggestions on graphical presentation and the interpretation of results. Moderate calibration can be assessed without requiring arbitrary grouping of data or using methods that require tuning of parameters.

Exploring Definitions and Predictors of Response to Biologics for Severe Asthma.

BACKGROUND: Biologic effectiveness is often assessed as response, a term that eludes consistent definition. Identifying those most likely to respond in real-life has proven challenging. OBJECTIVE: To explore definitions of biologic responders in adults with severe asthma and investigate patient characteristics associated with biologic response. METHODS: This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from 21 countries, which shared data with the International Severe Asthma Registry. Changes in four asthma outcome domains were assessed in the 1-year period before and after biologic initiation in patients with a predefined level of prebiologic impairment. Responder cutoffs were 50% or greater reduction in exacerbation rate, 50% or greater reduction in long-term oral corticosteroid daily dose, improvement in one or more category in asthma control, and 100 mL or greater improvement in FEV1. Responders were defined using single and multiple domains. The association between prebiologic characteristics and postbiologic initiation response was examined by multivariable analysis. RESULTS: A total of 2,210 patients were included. Responder rate ranged from 80.7% (n = 566 of 701) for exacerbation response to 10.6% (n = 9 of 85) for a four-domain response. Many responders still exhibited significant impairment after biologic initiation: 46.7% (n = 206 of 441) of asthma control responders with uncontrolled asthma before the biologic still had incompletely controlled disease postbiologic initiation. Predictors of response were outcome-dependent. Lung function responders were more likely to have higher prebiologic FeNO (odds ratio = 1.20 for every 25-parts per billion increase), and shorter asthma duration (odds ratio = 0.81 for every 10-year increase in duration). Higher blood eosinophil count and the presence of type 2-related comorbidities were positively associated with higher odds of meeting long-term oral corticosteroid, control, and lung function responder criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the multimodal nature of response, showing that many responders experience residual symptoms after biologic initiation and that predictors of response vary according to the outcome assessed.

Exploring Definitions and Predictors of Severe Asthma Clinical Remission after Biologic Treatment in Adults.

Rationale: There is no consensus on criteria to include in an asthma remission definition in real life. Factors associated with achieving remission after biologic initiation remain poorly understood. Objectives: To quantify the proportion of adults with severe asthma achieving multidomain-defined remission after biologic initiation and identify prebiologic characteristics associated with achieving remission that may be used to predict it. Methods: This was a longitudinal cohort study using data from 23 countries from the International Severe Asthma Registry. Four asthma outcome domains were assessed in the 1 year before and after biologic initiation. A priori-defined remission cutoffs were: 0 exacerbations/yr, no long-term oral corticosteroid (LTOCS), partly/well-controlled asthma, and percent predicted FEV1 ⩾ 80%. Remission was defined using two (exacerbations + LTOCS), three (+control or +lung function), and four of these domains. The association between prebiologic characteristics and postbiologic remission was assessed by multivariable analysis. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 50.2%, 33.5%, 25.8%, and 20.3% of patients met criteria for two-, three- (+control), three- (+lung function), and four-domain remission, respectively. The odds of achieving four-domain remission decreased by 15% for every additional 10 years of asthma duration (odds ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-1.00). The odds of remission increased in those with fewer exacerbations per year, lower LTOCS daily dose, better control, and better lung function before biologic initiation. Conclusions: One in five patients achieved four-domain remission within 1 year of biologic initiation. Patients with less severe impairment and shorter asthma duration at initiation had a greater chance of achieving remission after biologic treatment, indicating that biologic treatment should not be delayed if remission is the goal.

Association between pre-biologic T2-biomarker combinations and response to biologics in patients with severe asthma.

Background: To date, studies investigating the association between pre-biologic biomarker levels and post-biologic outcomes have been limited to single biomarkers and assessment of biologic efficacy from structured clinical trials. Aim: To elucidate the associations of pre-biologic individual biomarker levels or their combinations with pre-to-post biologic changes in asthma outcomes in real-life. Methods: This was a registry-based, cohort study using data from 23 countries, which shared data with the International Severe Asthma Registry (May 2017-February 2023). The investigated biomarkers (highest pre-biologic levels) were immunoglobulin E (IgE), blood eosinophil count (BEC) and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO). Pre- to approximately 12-month post-biologic change for each of three asthma outcome domains (i.e. exacerbation rate, symptom control and lung function), and the association of this change with pre-biologic biomarkers was investigated for individual and combined biomarkers. Results: Overall, 3751 patients initiated biologics and were included in the analysis. No association was found between pre-biologic BEC and pre-to-post biologic change in exacerbation rate for any biologic class. However, higher pre-biologic BEC and FeNO were both associated with greater post-biologic improvement in FEV1 for both anti-IgE and anti-IL5/5R, with a trend for anti-IL4Rα. Mean FEV1 improved by 27-178 mL post-anti-IgE as pre-biologic BEC increased (250 to 1000 cells/µL), and by 43-216 mL and 129-250 mL post-anti-IL5/5R and -anti-IL4Rα, respectively along the same BEC gradient. Corresponding improvements along a FeNO gradient (25-100 ppb) were 41-274 mL, 69-207 mL and 148-224 mL for anti-IgE, anti-IL5/5R, and anti-IL4Rα, respectively. Higher baseline BEC was also associated with lower probability of uncontrolled asthma (OR 0.392; p=0.001) post-biologic for anti-IL5/5R. Pre-biologic IgE was a poor predictor of subsequent pre-to-post-biologic change for all outcomes assessed for all biologics. The combination of BEC + FeNO marginally improved the prediction of post-biologic FEV1 increase (adjusted R2: 0.751), compared to BEC (adjusted R2: 0.747) or FeNO alone (adjusted R2: 0.743) (p=0.005 and <0.001, respectively); however, this prediction was not improved by the addition of IgE. Conclusions: The ability of higher baseline BEC, FeNO and their combination to predict biologic-associated lung function improvement may encourage earlier intervention in patients with impaired lung function or at risk of accelerated lung function decline.

Impact of surgical lung biopsy on lung function and survival in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in a multi-centre registry cohort.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Establishing an accurate and timely diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is essential for appropriate management and prognostication. In some cases, surgical lung biopsy (SLB) is performed but carries non-negligible risk. The objective of this retrospective study was to determine if SLB is associated with accelerated lung function decline in patients with IPF using the Canadian Registry for Pulmonary Fibrosis. METHODS: Linear mixed models and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compare decline in forced vital capacity (FVC)%, diffusion capacity of the lung (DLCO%) and risk of death or lung transplantation between SLB and non-SLB patients. Adjustments were made for baseline age, sex, smoking history, antifibrotic use, and lung function. A similar analysis compared lung function changes 12 months pre- and post-SLB. RESULTS: A total of 81 SLB patients and 468 non-SLB patients were included. In the SLB group, the post-biopsy annual FVC% decline was 2.0% (±0.8) in unadjusted, and 2.1% (±0.8) in adjusted models. There was no difference in FVC% decline, DLCO% decline, or time to death or lung transplantation between the two groups, in adjusted or unadjusted models (all p-values >0.07). In the pre-post SLB group, no differences were identified in FVC% decline in unadjusted or adjusted models (p = 0.07 for both). CONCLUSION: No association between SLB and lung function decline or risk of death or lung transplantation was identified in this multi-centre study of patients with IPF.

Validation of a Dyspnea Visual Analog Scale in Fibrotic Interstitial Lung Disease.

Rationale: A visual analog scale (VAS) is a simple and easily administered tool for measuring the impact of disease; however, little is known about the use of a dyspnea VAS in interstitial lung disease (ILD). Objectives: To validate the use of a dyspnea VAS in a large and heterogeneous cohort of patients with fibrotic ILD, including its minimal clinically important difference (MCID), responsiveness to change, and prognostic significance. Methods: Patients with fibrotic ILD were identified from a large prospective registry. The validity of a 100-mm dyspnea VAS was assessed by testing its correlation in change score with other measures of ILD severity, including the University of California San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire, the King's Brief Interstitial Lung Disease quality of life questionnaire Breathlessness and Activities Domain, the European Quality of Life VAS, forced vital capacity, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide. The responsiveness of the dyspnea VAS was qualitatively confirmed on the basis of there being an observable difference in the change in dyspnea VAS across tertiles of change in anchor variables. The MCID in dyspnea VAS was calculated using both anchor (linear regression) and distribution (one-half standard deviation) approaches, with anchors including the above variables that had a correlation with dyspnea VAS (|r| ≥ 0.30). The association of dyspnea VAS with time to death or transplant was determined. Results: The cohort included 826 patients with fibrotic ILD, including 127 patients with follow-up measurements at 6 months. The mean baseline dyspnea VAS was 53 ± 24 mm. Dyspnea VAS change scores were moderately correlated with the University of California San Diego Shortness of Breath Questionnaire (|r| = 0.55) and the King's Brief Interstitial Lung Disease quality of life questionnaire Breathlessness and Activities Domain (|r| = 0.44) and weakly correlated with the European Quality of Life VAS (|r| = 0.19), forced vital capacity percent predicted (|r| = 0.21), and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide percent predicted (|r| = 0.05). The MCID was 2.7 to 4.5 using the more reliable anchor-based methods and 12.0 based on distribution-based methods. Dyspnea VAS was associated with time to death or transplant in unadjusted models and after adjustment for age and sex (hazard ratios, 1.16 and 1.15, respectively; P < 0.05 for both). Conclusions: This study provides support for the use of the dyspnea VAS in patients with fibrotic ILD, with an estimated anchor-based MCID of 5 mm.

International Variation in Severe Exacerbation Rates in Patients With Severe Asthma.

BACKGROUND: Exacerbation frequency strongly influences treatment choices in patients with severe asthma. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the extent of the variability of exacerbation rate across countries and its implications in disease management? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We retrieved data from the International Severe Asthma Registry, an international observational cohort of patients with a clinical diagnosis of severe asthma. We identified patients aged ≥ 18 years who did not initiate any biologics prior to baseline visit. A severe exacerbation was defined as the use of oral corticosteroids for ≥ 3 days or asthma-related hospitalization/ED visit. A series of negative binomial models were applied to estimate country-specific severe exacerbation rates during 365 days of follow-up, starting from a naive model with country as the only variable to an adjusted model with country as a random-effect term and patient and disease characteristics as independent variables. RESULTS: The final sample included 7,510 patients from 17 countries (56% from the United States), contributing to 1,939 severe exacerbations (0.27/person-year). There was large between-country variation in observed severe exacerbation rate (minimum, 0.04 [Argentina]; maximum, 0.88 [Saudi Arabia]; interquartile range, 0.13-0.54), which remained substantial after adjusting for patient characteristics and sampling variability (interquartile range, 0.16-0.39). INTERPRETATION: Individuals with similar patient characteristics but coming from different jurisdictions have varied severe exacerbation risks, even after controlling for patient and disease characteristics. This suggests unknown patient factors or system-level variations at play. Disease management guidelines should recognize such between-country variability. Risk prediction models that are calibrated for each jurisdiction will be needed to optimize treatment strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness and Impact on Health Care Utilization of Interventions to Improve Medication Adherence and Outcomes in Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Poor adherence to asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease maintenance therapies impairs health outcomes. Proven and cost-effective programs to promote adherence and persistence are not yet in regular widespread use. Implementation costs are a potential barrier to uptake of such programs. OBJECTIVE: We undertook a systematic literature review and narrative synthesis of studies investigating the cost-effectiveness of treatment adherence-promoting programs or that determined their impact on health care budget directly or via health care resource use (HCRU). METHODS: We identified relevant publications using Medline and PreMEDLINE (PubMed), Embase (Embase.com, Elsevier), and EconLit for publications between January 2000 and July 2021. We also searched clinical trial databases and selected conference proceedings. RESULTS: Of 1,910 potentially relevant articles, 26 met prespecified inclusion criteria and underwent data extraction. Eleven reported a direct assessment of adherence, 15 included economic evaluations, and 17 described HCRU. None included an analysis of biologic medication use. When they were studied, interventions were often found to be highly cost-effective, with dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in some cases. Reductions in direct costs and HCRU (health care visits, hospital admissions, and/or the use of medications, including add-on/reliever treatment and antibiotics) were frequently reported. Reported use of maintenance treatments improved in some studies. Counseling and/or digitally informed programs were used in all cases in which favorable outcomes were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence-promoting interventions are mostly cost-effective and often result in reduced HCRU and associated costs. Multidisciplinary care involving one-to-one advice and digitally enhanced communications appear to offer the greatest benefit.

Analysis of comorbidities and multimorbidity in adult patients in the International Severe Asthma Registry.

BACKGROUND: Investigation for the presence of asthma comorbidities is recommended by the Global Initiative for Asthma because their presence can complicate asthma management. OBJECTIVE: To understand the prevalence and pattern of comorbidities and multimorbidity in adults with severe asthma and their association with asthma-related outcomes. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using data from the International Severe Asthma Registry from 22 countries. A total of 30 comorbidities were identified and categorized a priori as any of the following: (1) potentially type 2-related comorbidities, (2) potentially oral corticosteroid (OCS)-related comorbidities, or (3) comorbidities mimicking or aggravating asthma. The association between comorbidities and asthma-related outcomes was investigated using multivariable models adjusted for country, age at enrollment, and sex (ie male or female). RESULTS: Of the 11,821 patients, 69%, 67%, and 55% had at least 1 potentially type 2-related, potentially OCS-related, or mimicking or aggravating comorbidities, respectively; 57% had 3 or more comorbidities, and 33% had comorbidities in all 3 categories. Patients with allergic rhinitis, nasal polyposis, and chronic rhinosinusitis experienced 1.12 (P = .003), 1.16 (P < .001), and 1.29 times (P < .001) more exacerbations per year, respectively, than those without. Patients with nasal polyposis and chronic rhinosinusitis were 40% and 46% more likely (P < .001), respectively, to have received long-term (LT) OCS. All assessed potential OCS-related comorbidities (except obesity) were associated with a greater likelihood of LTOCS use (odds ratios [ORs]: 1.23-2.77) and, except for dyslipidemia, with a greater likelihood of uncontrolled asthma (ORs: 1.29-1.68). All mimicking or aggravating comorbidities assessed were associated with more exacerbations (1.24-1.68 times more), all (except bronchiectasis) with increased likelihood of uncontrolled asthma (ORs: 1.57-1.81), and all (except chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) with increased likelihood of LTOCS use (ORs: 1.37-1.57). A greater number of comorbidities was associated with worse outcomes. CONCLUSION: In a global study, comorbidity or multimorbidity is reported in most adults with severe asthma and is associated with poorer asthma-related outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The International Severe Asthma Registry database has ethical approval from the Anonymous Data Ethics Protocols and Transparency (ADEPT) committee (ADEPT0218) and is registered with the European Union Electronic Register of Post-Authorization Studies (European Network Centres for Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance [ENCEPP]/DSPP/23720). The study was designed, implemented, and reported in compliance with the European Network Centres for Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance (ENCEPP) Code of Conduct (EMA 2014; EUPAS44024) and with all applicable local and international laws and regulations, and registered with ENCEPP (https://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm?id=48848). Governance was provided by ADEPT (registration number: ADEPT1121).

Cost-effectiveness of budesonide-formoterol vs inhaled epinephrine in US adults with mild asthma.

BACKGROUND: The management of mild asthma has lacked an over-the-counter (OTC) option aside from inhaled epinephrine, which is available in the United States. However, inhaled epinephrine use without an inhaled corticosteroid may increase the risk of asthma death. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of OTC as-needed budesonide-formoterol as a plausible alternative to inhaled epinephrine. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic Markov model to compare OTC as-needed budesonide-formoterol inhaler use vs inhaled epinephrine use in adults with mild asthma from a US societal perspective over a lifetime horizon, with a 3% annual discount rate (2022 US dollars). Inputs were derived from the SYmbicort Given as-needed in Mild Asthma (SYGMA) trials, published literature, and commercial costs. Outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), costs, incremental net monetary benefit (INMB), severe asthma exacerbations, well-controlled asthma days, and asthma-related deaths. Microsimulation was used to evaluate underinsured Americans living with mild asthma (n = 5,250,000). RESULTS: Inhaled epinephrine was dominated (with lower QALYs gains at a higher cost) by both as-needed budesonide-formoterol (INMB, $15,541 at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per QALY) and the no-OTC inhaler option (INMB, $1023). Adults using as-needed budesonide-formoterol had 145 more well-controlled asthma days, 2.79 fewer severe exacerbations, and an absolute risk reduction of 0.23% for asthma-related death compared with inhaled epinephrine over a patient lifetime. As-needed budesonide-formoterol remained dominant in all sensitivity and scenario analyses, with a 100% probability of being cost-effective compared with inhaled epinephrine in probabilistic sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSION: If made available, OTC as-needed budesonide-formoterol for treating mild asthma in underinsured adults without HCP management improves asthma outcomes, prevents fatalities, and is cost-saving.

Association Between T2-related Comorbidities and Effectiveness of Biologics in Severe Asthma.

Rationale: Previous studies investigating the impact of comorbidities on the effectiveness of biologic agents have been relatively small and of short duration and have not compared classes of biologic agents. Objectives: To determine the association between type 2-related comorbidities and biologic agent effectiveness in adults with severe asthma (SA). Methods: This cohort study used International Severe Asthma Registry data from 21 countries (2017-2022) to quantify changes in four outcomes before and after biologic therapy-annual asthma exacerbation rate, FEV1% predicted, asthma control, and long-term oral corticosteroid daily dose-in patients with or without allergic rhinitis, chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) with or without nasal polyps (NPs), NPs, or eczema/atopic dermatitis. Measurements and Main Results: Of 1,765 patients, 1,257, 421, and 87 initiated anti-IL-5/5 receptor, anti-IgE, and anti-IL-4/13 therapies, respectively. In general, pre- versus post-biologic therapy improvements were noted in all four asthma outcomes assessed, irrespective of comorbidity status. However, patients with comorbid CRS with or without NPs experienced 23% fewer exacerbations per year (95% CI, 10-35%; P < 0.001) and had 59% higher odds of better post-biologic therapy asthma control (95% CI, 26-102%; P < 0.001) than those without CRS with or without NPs. Similar estimates were noted for those with comorbid NPs: 22% fewer exacerbations and 56% higher odds of better post-biologic therapy control. Patients with SA and CRS with or without NPs had an additional FEV1% predicted improvement of 3.2% (95% CI, 1.0-5.3; P = 0.004), a trend that was also noted in those with comorbid NPs. The presence of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis was not associated with post-biologic therapy effect for any outcome assessed. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of systematic comorbidity evaluation. The presence of CRS with or without NPs or NPs alone may be considered a predictor of the effectiveness of biologic agents in patients with SA.

Characteristics and risk factors of interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features.

BACKGROUND: Interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (IPAF) has features of connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD), but without meeting criteria for a specific CTD. We compared baseline characteristics, survival, and response to treatment of IPAF to both CTD-ILD and unclassifiable ILD. METHODS: Measurements were extracted from a prospective registry. Baseline features and survival were compared in IPAF against both CTD-ILD and unclassifiable ILD. Linear trajectory of lung function decline (%-predicted forced vital capacity [FVC%] and diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide [DLCO%]) before and after initiation of mycophenolate or azathioprine were compared in IPAF against both CTD-ILD and unclassifiable ILD using linear mixed models. RESULTS: Compared to CTD-ILD (n = 1240), patients with IPAF (n = 128) were older, more frequently male, and had greater smoking history. Compared to unclassifiable ILD (n = 665), patients with IPAF were younger, more frequently female, and had worse baseline lung function. IPAF had higher mortality compared to CTD-ILD and similar risk of mortality compared to unclassifiable ILD. Mycophenolate initiation was associated with stabilization of FVC% and DLCO% in all ILD subtypes except for FVC% in patients with IPAF, and azathioprine initiation with stabilization of FVC% and DLCO% in all ILD subtypes except for FVC% decline in IPAF and DLCO% decline in CTD-ILD. CONCLUSION: Patients with IPAF had worse survival compared to those with CTD-ILD and similar mortality to unclassifiable ILD, with treatment being associated with stabilization in lung function in all three ILDs. It is uncertain whether IPAF should be considered a distinct ILD diagnostic subgroup.

Impact of pre-biologic impairment on meeting domain-specific biologic responder definitions in patients with severe asthma.

BACKGROUND: There is little agreement on clinically useful criteria for identifying real-world responders to biologic treatments for asthma. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of pre-biologic impairment on meeting domain-specific biologic responder definitions in adults with severe asthma. METHODS: This was a longitudinal, cohort study across 22 countries participating in the International Severe Asthma Registry (https://isaregistries.org/) between May 2017 and January 2023. Change in 4 asthma domains (exacerbation rate, asthma control, long-term oral corticosteroid [LTOCS] dose, and lung function) was assessed from biologic initiation to 1 year post-treatment (minimum 24 weeks). Pre- to post-biologic changes for responders and nonresponders were described along a categorical gradient for each domain derived from pre-biologic distributions (exacerbation rate: 0 to 6+/y; asthma control: well controlled to uncontrolled; LTOCS: 0 to >30 mg/d; percent-predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second [ppFEV1]: <50% to ≥80%). RESULTS: Percentage of biologic responders (ie, those with a category improvement pre- to post-biologic) varied by domain and increased with greater pre-biologic impairment, increasing from 70.2% to 90.0% for exacerbation rate, 46.3% to 52.3% for asthma control, 31.1% to 58.5% for LTOCS daily dose, and 35.8% to 50.6% for ppFEV1. The proportion of patients having improvement post-biologic tended to be greater for anti-IL-5/5R compared with for anti-IgE for exacerbation, asthma control, and ppFEV1 domains, irrespective of pre-biologic impairment. CONCLUSION: Our results provide realistic outcome-specific post-biologic expectations for both physicians and patients, will be foundational to inform future work on a multidimensional approach to define and assess biologic responders and response, and may enhance appropriate patient selection for biologic therapies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ISAR database has ethical approval from the Anonymous Data Ethics Protocols and Transparency (ADEPT) committee (ADEPT0218) and is registered with the European Union Electronic Register of Post-Authorization studies (ENCEPP/DSPP/23720). The study was designed, implemented, and reported in compliance with the European Network Centres for Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance (ENCEPP) Code of Conduct (EUPAS38288) and with all applicable local and international laws and regulation, and registered with ENCEPP (https://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm?id=38289). Governance was provided by ADEPT (registration number: ADEPT1220).

QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK, a widely used CVD risk scoring tool, is not well studied. METHODS: We created an incidence cohort of diagnosed COPD patients from the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (January 1998-July 2018). The outcome was a composite of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Sex-specific age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were compared with values for the UK primary-care population. The observed 10-year CVD risk was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and was compared with predicted 10-year risk from the QRISK3 tool. RESULTS: 13 208 patients (mean age 64.9 years, 45% women) were included. CVD incidence was 3.53 events per 100 person-years. The SIR of CVD was 1.71 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.75) in women and 1.62 (95%CI 1.54-1.64) in men. SIR was particularly high among patients younger than 65 years (women=2.13 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.19); men=1.86 (95% CI 1.74 to 1.90)). On average, the observed 10-year risk was 52% higher than QRISK predicted score (33.5% vs 22.1%). The difference was higher in patients younger than 65 years (observed risk 82% higher than predicted). CONCLUSION: People living with COPD are at a significantly heightened risk of CVD over and beyond their predicted risk. This is particularly the case for younger people whose 10-year CVD risk can be >80% higher than predicted. Risk scoring tools must be validated and revised to provide accurate CVD predictions in patients with COPD.

Measuring the burden of cystic fibrosis: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) contributes a significant economic burden on individuals, healthcare systems, and society. Understanding the economic impact of CF is crucial for planning resource allocation. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of literature published between 1990 and 2022 that reported the cost of illness, and/or economic burden of CF. Costs were adjusted for inflation and reported as United States dollars. RESULTS: A total of 39 studies were included. Direct healthcare costs (e.g., medications, inpatient and outpatient care) were the most frequently reported. Most studies estimated the cost of CF using a prevalence-based (n = 18, 46.2 %), bottom-up approach (n = 23, 59 %). Direct non-healthcare costs and indirect costs were seldom included. The most frequently reported direct cost components were medications (n = 34, 87.2 %), inpatient care (n = 33, 84.6 %), and outpatient care (n = 31, 79.5 %). Twenty-eight percent (n = 11) of studies reported the burden of CF from all three perspectives (healthcare system (payer), individual, and society). Indirect costs of CF were reported in approximately 20 % of studies (n = 8). The reported total cost of CF varied widely, ranging from $451 to $160,000 per person per year (2022 US$). The total cost depended on the number of domains and perspectives included in each study. CONCLUSIONS: Most studies only reported costs to the healthcare system (i.e., hospitalizations and healthcare encounters) which likely underestimates the total costs of CF. The wide range of costs reported highlights the importance of standardizing perspectives, domains and costs when estimating the economic burden of CF.