Hybrid modeling approaches for agricultural commodity prices using CEEMDAN and time delay neural networks.

Improving the forecasting accuracy of agricultural commodity prices is critical for many stakeholders namely, farmers, traders, exporters, governments, and all other partners in the price channel, to evade risks and enable appropriate policy interventions. However, the traditional mono-scale smoothing techniques often fail to capture the non-stationary and non-linear features due to their multifarious structure. This study has proposed a CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)-TDNN (Time Delay Neural Network) model for forecasting non-linear, non-stationary agricultural price series. This study has evaluated its suitability in comparison with the other three major EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) variants (EMD, Ensemble EMD and Complementary Ensemble EMD) and the benchmark (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Non-linear Support Vector Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest and TDNN) models using monthly wholesale prices of major oilseed crops in India. Outcomes from this investigation reflect that the CEEMDAN-TDNN hybrid models have outperformed all other forecasting models on the basis of evaluation metrics under consideration. For the proposed model, an average improvement of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), Relative RMSE and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values has been observed to be 20.04%, 19.94% and 27.80%, respectively over the other EMD variant-based counterparts and 57.66%, 48.37% and 62.37%, respectively over the other benchmark stochastic and machine learning models. The CEEMD-TDNN and CEEMDAN-TDNN models have demonstrated superior performance in predicting the directional changes of monthly price series compared to other models. Additionally, the accuracy of forecasts generated by all models has been assessed using the Diebold-Mariano test, the Friedman test, and the Taylor diagram. The results confirm that the proposed hybrid model has outperformed the alternative models, providing a distinct advantage.

Hybrid time series models with exogenous variable for improved yield forecasting of major Rabi crops in India.

Accurate and in-time prediction of crop yield plays a crucial role in the planning, management, and decision-making processes within the agricultural sector. In this investigation, utilizing area under irrigation (%) as an exogenous variable, we have made an exertion to assess the suitability of different hybrid models such as ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous Regressor)-TDNN (Time-Delay Neural Network), ARIMAX-NLSVR (Non-Linear Support Vector Regression), ARIMAX-WNN (Wavelet Neural Network), ARIMAX-CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), ARIMAX-RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) and ARIMAX-LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) as compared to their individual counterparts for yield forecasting of major Rabi crops in India. The accuracy of the ARIMA model has also been considered as a benchmark. Empirical outcomes reveal that the ARIMAX-LSTM hybrid modeling combination outperforms all other time series models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values. For these models, an average improvement of RMSE and MAPE values has been observed to be 10.41% and 12.28%, respectively over all other competing models and 15.83% and 18.42%, respectively over the benchmark ARIMA model. The incorporation of the area under irrigation (%) as an exogenous variable in the ARIMAX framework and the inbuilt capability of the LSTM model to process complex non-linear patterns have been observed to significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasting. The performance supremacy of other hybrid models over their individual counterparts has also been evident. The results also suggest avoiding any performance generalization of individual models for their hybrid structures.

Development of Smart Weighing Lysimeter for Measuring Evapotranspiration and Developing Crop Coefficient for Greenhouse Chrysanthemum.

The management of water resources is a priority problem in agriculture, especially in areas with a limited water supply. The determination of crop water requirements and crop coefficient (Kc) of agricultural crops helps to create an appropriate irrigation schedule for the effective management of irrigation water. A portable smart weighing lysimeter (1000 × 1000 mm and 600 mm depth) was developed at CPCT, IARI, New Delhi for real-time measurement of Crop Coefficient (Kc) and water requirement of chrysanthemum crop and bulk data storage. The paper discusses the assembly, structural and operational design of the portable smart weighting lysimeter. The performance characteristics of the developed lysimeter were evaluated under different load conditions. The Kc values of the chrysanthemum crop obtained from the lysimeter installed inside the greenhouse were Kc ini. 0.43 and 0.38, Kc mid-1.27 and 1.25, and Kc end-0.67 and 0.59 for the years 2019-2020 and 2020-2021, respectively, which apprehensively corroborated with the FAO 56 paper for determination of crop coefficient. The Kc values decreased progressively at the late-season stage because of the maturity and aging of the leaves. The lysimeter's edge temperature was somewhat higher, whereas the center temperature closely matched the field temperature. The temperature difference between the center and the edge increased as the ambient temperature rose. The developed smart lysimeter system has unique applications due to its real-time measurement, portable attribute, and ability to produce accurate results for determining crop water use and crop coefficient for greenhouse chrysanthemum crops.

A Novel Approach for Development and Evaluation of LiDAR Navigated Electronic Maize Seeding System Using Check Row Quality Index.

Crop geometry plays a vital role in ensuring proper plant growth and yield. Check row planting allows adequate space for weeding in both direction and allowing sunlight down to the bottom of the crop. Therefore, a light detection and ranging (LiDAR) navigated electronic seed metering system for check row planting of maize seeds was developed. The system is comprised of a LiDAR-based distance measurement unit, electronic seed metering mechanism and a wireless communication system. The electronic seed metering mechanism was evaluated in the laboratory for five different cell sizes (8.80, 9.73, 10.82, 11.90 and 12.83 mm) and linear cell speed (89.15, 99.46, 111.44, 123.41 and 133.72 mm·s-1). The research shows the optimised values for the cell size and linear speed of cell were found to be 11.90 mm and 99.46 mm·s-1 respectively. A light dependent resistor (LDR) and light emitting diode (LED)-based seed flow sensing system was developed to measure the lag time of seed flow from seed metering box to bottom of seed tube. The average lag time of seed fall was observed as 251.2 ± 5.39 ms at an optimised linear speed of cell of 99.46 mm·s-1 and forward speed of 2 km·h-1. This lag time was minimized by advancing the seed drop on the basis of forward speed of tractor, lag time and targeted position. A check row quality index (ICRQ) was developed to evaluate check row planter. While evaluating the developed system at different forward speeds (i.e., 2, 3 and 5 km·h-1), higher standard deviation (14.14%) of check row quality index was observed at forward speed of 5 km·h-1.