Correction: Current Use and Discrepancies in the Adoption of Health-Related Internet of Things and Apps Among Working Women in Japan: Large-Scale, Internet-Based, Cross-Sectional Survey.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/51537.].

Body Mass Index and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Asia.

Importance: The global burden of obesity is increasing, as are colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. Objectives: To assess the association between body mass index (BMI) and risks of incident CRC and CRC-related death in the Asian population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study includes data pooled from 17 prospective cohort studies included in The Asia Cohort Consortium. Cohort enrollment was conducted from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2002. Median follow-up time was 15.2 years (IQR, 12.1-19.2 years). Data were analyzed from January 15, 2023, through January 15, 2024. Exposure: Body mass index, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were CRC incidence and CRC-related mortality. The risk of events is reported as adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) and 95% CIs for incident CRC and death from CRC using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results: To assess the risk of incident CRC, 619 981 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.8 [10.1] years; 52.0% female; 11 900 diagnosed incident CRC cases) were included in the study, and to assess CRC-related mortality, 650 195 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.5 [10.2] years; 51.9% female; 4550 identified CRC deaths) were included in the study. A positive association between BMI and risk of CRC was observed among participants with a BMI greater than 25.0 to 27.5 (AHR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.16]), greater than 27.5 to 30.0 (AHR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.11-1.29]), and greater than 30.0 (AHR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.19-1.46]) compared with those with a BMI greater than 23.0 to 25.0 (P < .001 for trend), and BMI was associated with a greater increase in risk for colon cancer than for rectal cancer. A similar association between BMI and CRC-related death risk was observed among participants with a BMI greater than 27.5 (BMI >27.5-30.0: AHR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.04-1.34]; BMI >30.0: AHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.18-1.62]; P < .001 for trend) and was present among men with a BMI greater than 30.0 (AHR, 1.87 [95% CI, 1.49-2.34]; P < .001 for trend) but not among women (P = .15 for trend) (P = .02 for heterogeneity). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study that included a pooled analysis of 17 cohort studies comprising participants across Asia, a positive association between BMI and CRC incidence and related mortality was found. The risk was greater among men and participants with colon cancer. These findings may have implications to better understand the burden of obesity on CRC incidence and related deaths in the Asian population.

Long-term efficacy and safety of tofacitinib in patients with ulcerative colitis: 3-year results from a real-world study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The efficacy and safety of tofacitinib for the treatment of refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) has been demonstrated in clinical trials. Although, a series of reports with real-world evidence of its short-term efficacy and safety profiles have already been published, reports of long-term real-world data have been limited. We aimed to show our 3-year evidence on the clinical use of tofacitinib for the treatment of UC, focusing on its efficacy and safety profiles. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted on patients who started tofacitinib for active refractory UC at our hospital. The primary outcome was the retention rate until 156 weeks after initiating tofacitinib. The secondary outcomes were short-term efficacy at 4, 8, and 12 weeks; long-term efficacy at 52, 104, and 156 weeks; prognostic factors related to the cumulative retention rate; loss of response; and safety profile, including adverse events. RESULTS: Forty-six patients who were able to be monitored for up to 156 weeks after tofacitinib initiation, were enrolled in this study. Continuation of tofacitinib was possible until 156 weeks in 54.3%, with > 50% response rates and > 40% remission rates. Among patients in whom response or remission was achieved and tofacitinib was deescalated after 8 weeks of induction treatment, 54.3% experienced relapse but were successfully rescued by and retained on reinduction treatment, except for 1 patient. No serious AEs were observed in the study. CONCLUSIONS: Tofacitinib is effective and safe as long-term treatment in a refractory cohort of UC patients in real-world clinical practice.

Current Use and Discrepancies in the Adoption of Health-Related Internet of Things and Apps Among Working Women in Japan: Large-Scale, Internet-Based, Cross-Sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: Demographic changes and a low birth rate have led to a workforce shortage in Japan. To address this issue, the government has promoted engagement of female employment. However, increased female employment can impact women's health. Using Internet of Things (IoT) and apps to manage women's health has gained attention, but few studies have focused on working women. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to clarify the current situation of working women and their use of IoT or apps to manage their health. METHODS: A large-scale, nationwide internet survey was conducted among 10,000 female participants aged from 20 years to 64 years in Japan. Participants were recruited from a marketing research company's active survey panel of 5.24 million members. The survey included questions about health status, sociodemographic factors, psychological characteristics, and the use of IoT or apps for health management. We compared perceived health status and reasons for current IoT use using t tests and assessed participant characteristics that predicted IoT use using the C5.0 decision tree algorithm. Ethical approval was granted by St. Luke's International University. RESULTS: Among participants, 14.6% (1455/10,000) currently used IoT or apps, 7% (695/10,000) used them previously, and 78.5% (7850/10,000) had never used them. Current users (42.7 years old) were older than past users (39.7 years old). Discrepancies were observed between participants' perceived health problems and the purpose for using IoT or apps, with 21.3% (2130/10,000) of all women reporting they experienced menstrual symptoms or disorders but only 3.5% (347/10,000) used IoT or apps to manage the same symptom. On the other hand, current users were more likely to use IoT or apps to manage nutrition-related problems such as underweight or obesity (405/1455, 27.8%). Device use was highest among current users, with 87.3% (1270/1455) using smartphones, 19.7% (287/1455) using smartwatches, and 13.3% (194/1455) using PCs. Decision tree analysis identified 6 clusters, the largest consisting of 81.6% (5323/6523) of non-IoT users who did not exercise regularly, while pregnant women were more likely to use IoT or apps. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the idea that woman with particular health problems (ie, menstrual symptoms or disorders and premenstrual syndrome) have lower use of IoT or apps, suggesting an unmet need for IoT and apps in specific areas.

Diabetes and gastric cancer incidence and mortality in the Asia Cohort Consortium: A pooled analysis of more than a half million participants.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests a possible link between diabetes and gastric cancer risk, but the findings remain inconclusive, with limited studies in the Asian population. We aimed to assess the impact of diabetes and diabetes duration on the development of gastric cancer overall, by anatomical and histological subtypes. METHODS: A pooled analysis was conducted using 12 prospective studies included in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Among 558 981 participants (median age 52), after a median follow-up of 14.9 years and 10.5 years, 8556 incident primary gastric cancers and 8058 gastric cancer deaths occurred, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Diabetes was associated with an increased incidence of overall gastric cancer (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25). The risk association did not differ significantly by sex (women vs men: HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.07-1.60 vs 1.12, 1.01-1.23), anatomical subsites (noncardia vs cardia: 1.14, 1.02-1.28 vs 1.17, 0.77-1.78) and histological subtypes (intestinal vs diffuse: 1.22, 1.02-1.46 vs 1.00, 0.62-1.61). Gastric cancer risk increased significantly during the first decade following diabetes diagnosis (HR 4.70, 95% CI 3.77-5.86), and decreased with time (nonlinear p < .01). Positive associations between diabetes and gastric cancer mortality were observed (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.28) but attenuated after a 2-year time lag. CONCLUSION: Diabetes was associated with an increased gastric cancer incidence regardless of sex, anatomical subsite, or subtypes of gastric cancer. The risk of gastric cancer was particularly high during the first decade following diabetes diagnosis.

Family history and gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Asia: a pooled analysis of more than half a million participants.

BACKGROUND: The family history of gastric cancer holds important implications for cancer surveillance and prevention, yet existing evidence predominantly comes from case-control studies. We aimed to investigate the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer risk overall and by various subtypes in Asians in a prospective study. METHODS: We included 12 prospective cohorts with 550,508 participants in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate study-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer incidence and mortality, then pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed for the anatomical subsites and histological subtypes. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 15.6 years, 2258 incident gastric cancers and 5194 gastric cancer deaths occurred. The risk of incident gastric cancer was higher in individuals with a family history of gastric cancer (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.32-1.58), similarly in males (1.44, 1.31-1.59) and females (1.45, 1.23-1.70). Family history of gastric cancer was associated with both cardia (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.00-1.60) and non-cardia subsites (1.49, 1.35-1.65), and with intestinal- (1.48, 1.30-1.70) and diffuse-type (1.59, 1.35-1.87) gastric cancer incidence. Positive associations were also found for gastric cancer mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.19-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest prospective study to date on family history and gastric cancer, a familial background of gastric cancer increased the risk of gastric cancer in the Asian population. Targeted education, screening, and intervention in these high-risk groups may reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Diabetes is associated with increased liver cancer incidence and mortality in adults: A report from Asia Cohort Consortium.

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two-stage meta-analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p < .0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p < .0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two-stage meta-analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population-based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta-analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of CTZ/TAZ for the treatment of ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Resistant bacterial infections, particularly those caused by gram-negative pathogens, are associated with high mortality and economic burdens. Ceftolozane/tazobactam demonstrated efficacy comparable to meropenem in patients with ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia in the ASPECT-NP study. One cost-effectiveness analysis in the United States revealed that ceftolozane/tazobactam was cost effective, but no Japanese studies have been conducted. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of ceftolozane/tazobactam compared to meropenem for patients with ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia/ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia from a health care payer perspective. METHODS: A hybrid decision-tree Markov decision-analytic model with a 5-year time horizon were developed to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life-years and to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with ceftolozane/tazobactam and meropenem in the treatment of patients with ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia/ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia. Clinical outcomes were based on the ASPECT-NP study, costs were based on the national fee schedule of 2022, and utilities were based on published data. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were also conducted to assess the robustness of our modeled estimates. RESULTS: According to our base-case analysis, compared with meropenem, ceftolozane/tazobactam increased the total costs by 424,731.22 yen (£2,626.96) and increased the quality-adjusted life-years by 0.17, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 2,548,738 yen (£15,763.94) per quality-adjusted life-year gained for ceftolozane/tazobactam compared with meropenem. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that although the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio remained below 5,000,000 yen (£30,925) for most of the parameters, the incremental net monetary benefit may have been less than 0 depending on the treatment efficacy outcome, especially the cure rate and mortality rate for MEPM and mortality rate for CTZ/TAZ. 53.4% of the PSA simulations demonstrated that CTZ/TAZ was more cost-effective than MEPM was. CONCLUSION: Although incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was below ï¿¥5,000,000 in base-case analysis, whether ceftolozane/tazobactam is a cost-effective alternative to meropenem for ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia/ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia in Japan remains uncertain. Future research should examine the unobserved heterogeneity across patient subgroups and decision-making settings, to characterise decision uncertainty and its consequences so as to assess whether additional research is required.

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium.

The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone-related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16-1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13-14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50-4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08-2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Association between reproductive factors with lung cancer incidence and mortality: A pooled analysis of over 308,000 females in the Asia cohort consortium.

Previous studies have investigated the association between reproductive factors and lung cancer risk; however, findings have been inconsistent. In order to assess this association among Asian women, a total of 308,949 female participants from 11 prospective cohorts and four Asian countries (Japan, Korea, China, and Singapore) were included. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 3,119 primary lung cancer cases and 2247 lung cancer deaths were identified with a mean follow-up of 16.4 years. Parous women had a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality as compared with nulliparous women, with HRs of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.70-0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.65-0.94). The protective association of parity and lung cancer incidence was greater among ever-smokers (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.87) than in never-smokers (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.74-1.09) (P-interaction = 0.029). Compared with age at first delivery ≤20 years, older age at first delivery (21-25, ≥26 years) was associated with a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality. Women who ever used hormone replacements had a higher likelihood of developing non-small cell lung cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02-1.68), compared to those who never used hormone replacements. Future studies are needed to assess the underlying mechanisms, the relationships within these female reproductive factors, and the potential changes in smoking habits over time.

The impact of alternate HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies in Japan: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: The Japanese 2020 cervical screening guidelines recommend conventional cervical cytology screening every 2-years for women aged 20-69 years. The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has also recently been approved in Japan. We therefore evaluated the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies alongside universal nonavalent HPV vaccination of girls (12-16 years). Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an age-specific Markov microsimulation model for Japan to evaluate total costs, quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), colposcopies, biopsies, precancer and cervical cancer treatments for 29 combined vaccination and screening strategies (conventional cytology, liquid-based cytology (LBC), HPV testing, and HPV self-collection). A cohort of 100,000 girls (12-16 years old) over a lifetime offered the nonavalent HPV vaccine was used (current vaccination coverage = 0.08%, current screening coverage = 43.7%). A discount rate of 3% was applied to costs and QALYs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess robustness of the findings. Costs were reported in US dollars (2023). Findings: Compared with conventional cytology, evaluated strategies would incur an additional cost of US$839,280-738,182,669 and gain 62,755-247,347 quality-adjusted-life-years. HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be most cost-effective (ICER = US$7511 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 1-times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the probability of it being cost-effective was 70%. At historically high vaccination coverage (70%) ICERs decreased overall but did not affect the ranking of the most cost-effective strategy. While a 5-yearly interval became more cost-effective than a 3-yearly interval. Including HPV self-collection for under-screened women made all strategies more cost-effective. Interpretation: At current cervical screening participation (43.7%) and low vaccination coverage (<1.0%), HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be the most cost-effective screening strategy compared to conventional cytology (2-yearly). Funding: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H03589) and Grants of the National Cancer Center Japan (Gan Kenkyu Kaihatsuhi 31-A-20 and 2023-A-23).

Differential patterns of reproductive and lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer according to birth cohorts among women in China, Japan and Korea.

BACKGROUND: The birth cohort effect has been suggested to influence the rate of breast cancer incidence and the trends of associated reproductive and lifestyle factors. We conducted a cohort study to determine whether a differential pattern of associations exists between certain factors and breast cancer risk based on birth cohorts. METHODS: This was a cohort study using pooled data from 12 cohort studies. We analysed associations between reproductive (menarche age, menopause age, parity and age at first delivery) and lifestyle (smoking and alcohol consumption) factors and breast cancer risk. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis on the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s and 1950s birth cohorts. RESULTS: Parity was found to lower the risk of breast cancer in the older but not in the younger birth cohort, whereas lifestyle factors showed associations with breast cancer risk only among the participants born in the 1950s. In the younger birth cohort group, the effect size was lower for parous women compared to the other cohort groups (HR [95% CI] 0.86 [0.66-1.13] compared to 0.60 [0.49-0.73], 0.46 [0.38-0.56] and 0.62 [0.51-0.77]). Meanwhile, a higher effect size was found for smoking (1.45 [1.14-1.84] compared to 1.25 [0.99-1.58], 1.06 [0.85-1.32] and 0.86 [0.69-1.08]) and alcohol consumption (1.22 [1.01-1.48] compared to 1.10 [0.90-1.33], 1.15 [0.96-1.38], and 1.07 [0.91-1.26]). CONCLUSION: We observed different associations of parity, smoking and alcohol consumption with breast cancer risk across various birth cohorts.

[State of commitment to universal health coverage and associated challenges].

Purpose　Since 2020, UHC2030 has undertaken a project to review the progress of UN member states in fulfilling their commitments toward achieving universal health coverage (UHC) as outlined in the 2019 UHC Political Declaration. This involves identifying countries where UHC progress is of particular concern and engaging with multi-stakeholders. This article aims to provide a concise overview and widespread introduction to the State of UHC Commitment project for public health experts in Japan, with particular emphasis on the key findings from a pilot project on voluntary national reviews.Method　In order to gauge the evidence-based accountability actions of governments toward UHC, we conducted a comprehensive review of initial five-year Voluntary National Review (VNR) reports (2016-2020, 187 reports) published at the United Nations High-level Political Forum (HLPF). This included all descriptions (quantitative and qualitative information) regarding UHC and health systems. We also compared the descriptions in the latest VNR reports (40 reports) available as of February 2021. We checked whether there have been any improvements in the evidence-based accountability of each country.Research Results　We compared the 2021 VNR reports and the first five-year VNR reports and observed an improvement in evidence-based accountability. However, considering the wealth of data released by the United Nations Statistics on UHC and health systems, these indicators have not yet been fully utilized for accountability purposes.Conclusion　Despite the UHC Political Declaration follow-up meeting and the SDGs Mid-term Review held at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2023, some UHC targets set in 2019 have been postponed to 2025. The current status of UHC progress poses challenges to achieving the 2030 goal. There is an urgent need to strengthen governments' evidence-based accountability using UN statistics and promote UHC progress by implementing the agreed Political Declaration.

Combination of leucine-rich alpha-2 glycoprotein and fecal markers detect Crohn's disease activity confirmed by balloon-assisted enteroscopy.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Endoscopic activity confirmed by enteroscopy is associated with poor clinical outcome in Crohn's disease (CD). We investigated which of the existing biomarkers best reflects endoscopic activity in CD patients including the small bowel, and whether their combined use can improve accuracy. METHODS: One hundred and four consecutive patients with ileal and ileocolonic type CD who underwent balloon-assisted enteroscopy (BAE) from October 2021 to August 2022 were enrolled, with clinical and laboratory data prospectively collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Hemoglobin, platelet count, C-reactive protein, leucine-rich alpha-2 glycoprotein (LRG), fecal calprotectin, and fecal hemoglobin all showed significant difference in those with ulcers found on BAE. LRG and fecal calprotectin showed the highest areas under the curve (0.841 and 0.853) for detecting ulcers. LRG showed a sensitivity of 78% and specificity of 80% at a cutoff value of 13 µg/mL, whereas fecal calprotectin showed a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 67% at a cutoff value of 151 µg/g. Dual positivity for LRG and fecal calprotectin, as well as LRG and fecal hemoglobin, both predicted ulcers with an improved specificity of 92% and 100%. A positive LRG or fecal calprotectin/hemoglobin showed an improved sensitivity of 96% and 91%. Positivity for LRG and either of the fecal biomarkers was associated with increased risk of hospitalization, surgery, and relapse. CONCLUSIONS: The biomarkers LRG, fecal calprotectin, and fecal hemoglobin can serve as noninvasive and accurate tools for assessing activity in CD patients confirmed by BAE, especially when used in combination.

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population-based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ); normal (18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ); overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02-1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14-1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Asian Ever-Smokers.

INTRODUCTION: Although lung cancer prediction models are widely used to support risk-based screening, their performance outside Western populations remains uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 11 existing risk prediction models in multiple Asian populations and to refit prediction models for Asians. METHODS: In a pooled analysis of 186,458 Asian ever-smokers from 19 prospective cohorts, we assessed calibration (expected-to-observed ratio) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) for each model. In addition, we developed the "Shanghai models" to better refine risk models for Asians on the basis of two well-characterized population-based prospective cohorts and externally validated them in other Asian cohorts. RESULTS: Among the 11 models, the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool yielded the highest AUC (AUC [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.71 [0.67-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.69 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model had good calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio [95% CI] = 1.06 [0.90-1.25]). Nevertheless, these models substantially underestimated lung cancer risk among Asians who reported less than 10 smoking pack-years or stopped smoking more than or equal to 20 years ago. The Shanghai models were found to have marginal improvement overall in discrimination (AUC [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.69-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.70 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) but consistently outperformed the selected Western models among low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters. CONCLUSIONS: The Shanghai models had comparable performance overall to the best existing models, but they improved much in predicting the lung cancer risk of low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters in Asia.

Reproductive Factors and Endometrial Cancer Risk Among Women.

Importance: Despite evidence of an association between reproductive factors and endometrial cancer risk, prospective studies have been conducted mainly in non-Asian countries. Objective: To assess the association between reproductive factors, such as number of deliveries, age at menarche, or menopause, and endometrial cancer risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used pooled individual data from 13 prospective cohort studies conducted between 1963 and 2014 in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Participants were Asian women. Data analysis was conducted from September 2019 to April 2023. Exposures: Reproductive factors were assessed using a questionnaire in each cohort. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was time to incidence of endometrial cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results: A total of 1005 endometrial cancer cases were detected among 332 625 women (mean [SD] age, 54.3 [10.4] years) during a mean (SD) of 16.5 (6.4) years of follow-up. Increasing number of deliveries was associated with a decreased endometrial cancer risk in a dose-response manner (≥5 deliveries vs nulliparous [reference]: HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.26-0.53; P for trend < .001). Compared with menarche at younger than 13 years, menarche at 17 years or older had an HR of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.48-0.86; P for trend < .001). Late menopause (age ≥55 years) showed an HR of 2.84 (95% CI, 1.78-4.55; P for trend < .001) compared with the youngest age category for menopause (<45 years). Age at first delivery, hormone therapy, and breastfeeding were not associated with endometrial cancer risk. Conclusions and Relevance: This large pooled study of individual participant data found that late menarche, early menopause, and a higher number of deliveries were significantly associated with a lower risk of endometrial cancer. These convincing results from Asian prospective studies add to the growing body of evidence for the association between reproductive factors and endometrial cancer.

Economic burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Japan.

Controlling avoidable causes of cancer may save cancer-related healthcare costs and indirect costs of premature deaths and productivity loss. This study aimed to estimate the economic burden of cancer attributable to major lifestyle and environmental risk factors in Japan in 2015. We evaluated the economic cost of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors from a societal perspective. We obtained the direct medical costs for 2015 from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan, and estimated the indirect costs of premature mortality and of morbidity due to cancer using the relevant national surveys in Japan. Finally, we estimated the economic cost of cancer associated with lifestyle and environmental risk factors. The estimated cost of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors was 1,024,006 million Japanese yen (¥) (8,460 million US dollars [$]) for both sexes, and ¥673,780 million ($5,566 million) in men and ¥350,226 million ($2,893 million) in women, using the average exchange rate in 2015 ($1 = ¥121.044). A total of ¥285,150 million ($2,356 million) was lost due to premature death in Japan in 2015. Indirect morbidity costs that could have been prevented were estimated to be ¥200,602 million ($1,657 million). Productivity loss was highest for stomach cancer in men (¥28,735 million/$237 million) and cervical cancer in women (¥24,448 million/$202 million). Preventing and controlling cancers caused by infections including Helicobacter pylori, human papillomavirus and tobacco smoking will not only be life-saving but may also be cost-saving in the long run.

Cost-effectiveness of preventive aspirin use and intensive downstaging polypectomy in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis: A microsimulation modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: Although there is increasing evidence to suggest the cost-effectiveness of aspirin use to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) in the general population, no study has assessed cost-effectiveness in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), who are at high risk of developing CRC. We examined the cost-effectiveness of preventive use of low-dose aspirin in FAP patients who had undergone polypectomy in comparison with current treatment practice. DESIGN: We developed a microsimulation model that simulates a hypothetical cohort of the Japanese population with FAP for 40 years. Three scenarios were created based on three intervention strategies for comparison with no intervention, namely intensive downstaging polypectomy (IDP) of colorectal polyps at least 5.0 mm in diameter, IDP combined with low-dose aspirin, and total proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA). Cost-effective strategies were identified using a willingness-to-pay threshold of USD 50,000 per QALY gained. RESULTS: Compared with no intervention, all strategies resulted in extended QALYs (21.01-21.43 QALYs per individual) and showed considerably reduced colorectal cancer mortality (23.35-53.62 CRC deaths per 1000 individuals). Based on the willingness-to-pay threshold, IDP with low-dose aspirin was more cost-effective than the other strategies, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $57 compared with no preventive intervention. These findings were confirmed in both one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the strategy of low-dose aspirin with IDP may be cost-effective compared with IDP-only or IPAA under the national fee schedule of Japan.