Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

The prevalence of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens in the South Gobi desert region of Mongolia.

The alpine ecosystems and communities of central Asia are currently undergoing large-scale ecological and socio-ecological changes likely to affect wildlife-livestock-human disease interactions and zoonosis transmission risk. However, relatively little is known about the prevalence of pathogens in this region. Between 2012 and 2015 we screened 142 rodents in Mongolia's Gobi desert for exposure to important zoonotic and livestock pathogens. Rodent seroprevalence to Leptospira spp. was >1/3 of tested animals, Toxoplasma gondii and Coxiella burnetii approximately 1/8 animals, and the hantaviruses being between 1/20 (Puumala-like hantavirus) and <1/100 (Seoul-like hantavirus). Gerbils trapped inside local dwellings were one of the species seropositive to Puumala-like hantavirus, suggesting a potential zoonotic transmission pathway. Seventeen genera of zoonotic bacteria were also detected in the faeces and ticks collected from these rodents, with one tick testing positive to Yersinia. Our study helps provide baseline patterns of disease prevalence needed to infer potential transmission between source and target populations in this region, and to help shift the focus of epidemiological research towards understanding disease transmission among species and proactive disease mitigation strategies within a broader One Health framework.

Widespread Exposure to Mosquitoborne California Serogroup Viruses in Caribou, Arctic Fox, Red Fox, and Polar Bears, Canada.

Northern Canada is warming at 3 times the global rate. Thus, changing diversity and distribution of vectors and pathogens is an increasing health concern. California serogroup (CSG) viruses are mosquitoborne arboviruses; wildlife reservoirs in northern ecosystems have not been identified. We detected CSG virus antibodies in 63% (95% CI 58%-67%) of caribou (n = 517), 4% (95% CI 2%-7%) of Arctic foxes (n = 297), 12% (95% CI 6%-21%) of red foxes (n = 77), and 28% (95% CI 24%-33%) of polar bears (n = 377). Sex, age, and summer temperatures were positively associated with polar bear exposure; location, year, and ecotype were associated with caribou exposure. Exposure was highest in boreal caribou and increased from baseline in polar bears after warmer summers. CSG virus exposure of wildlife is linked to climate change in northern Canada and sustained surveillance could be used to measure human health risks.

Seasonal variation in daily activity patterns of snow leopards and their prey.

The daily and seasonal activity patterns of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) are poorly understood, limiting our ecological understanding and hampering our ability to mitigate threats such as climate change and retaliatory killing in response to livestock predation. We fitted GPS-collars with activity loggers to snow leopards, Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica: their main prey), and domestic goats (Capra hircus: common livestock prey) in Mongolia between 2009 and 2020. Snow leopards were facultatively nocturnal with season-specific crepuscular activity peaks: seasonal activity shifted towards night-sunrise during summer, and day-sunset in winter. Snow leopard activity was in contrast to their prey, which were consistently diurnal. We interpret these results in relation to: (1) darkness as concealment for snow leopards when stalking in an open landscape (nocturnal activity), (2) low-intermediate light preferred for predatory ambush in steep rocky terrain (dawn and dusk activity), and (3) seasonal activity adjustments to facilitate thermoregulation in an extreme environment. These patterns suggest that to minimise human-wildlife conflict, livestock should be corralled at night and dawn in summer, and dusk in winter. It is likely that climate change will intensify seasonal effects on the snow leopard's daily temporal niche for thermoregulation in the future.

Genome report: chromosome-level draft assemblies of the snow leopard, African leopard, and tiger (Panthera uncia, Panthera pardus pardus, and Panthera tigris).

The big cats (genus Panthera) represent some of the most popular and charismatic species on the planet. Although some reference genomes are available for this clade, few are at the chromosome level, inhibiting high-resolution genomic studies. We assembled genomes from 3 members of the genus, the tiger (Panthera tigris), the snow leopard (Panthera uncia), and the African leopard (Panthera pardus pardus), at chromosome or near-chromosome level. We used a combination of short- and long-read technologies, as well as proximity ligation data from Hi-C technology, to achieve high continuity and contiguity for each individual. We hope that these genomes will aid in further evolutionary and conservation research of this iconic group of mammals.

Evidence of Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus) Survival Following Exposure to Rabies Virus.

The arctic fox variant of the rabies virus (RABV) is enzootic in the circumpolar north. Reports of abortive RABV exposures motivated a retrospective analysis of sera from 41 arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) captured at Karrak Lake in Nunavut, Canada, during 2011-15. Estimated RABV antibody prevalence among foxes was 15% (95% confidence interval, 7-28%).

Tularemia above the Treeline: Climate and Rodent Abundance Influences Exposure of a Sentinel Species, the Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus), to Francisella tularensis.

Tularemia is a zoonotic disease found throughout most of the northern hemisphere that may experience range expansion with warming temperatures. Rodents and lagomorphs are reservoirs for the disease, and outbreaks of tularemia often follow peaks in their abundance. As small mammals dominate the diet of arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), we determined whether they may serve as sentinels by identifying antibodies in live-captured and harvested foxes from northern Canada. Overall seroprevalence was 2% (CI95 1-2%) in 176 foxes harvested in 2018-2019 compared to 17% (CI95 12-22%) of 230 foxes captured live in 2011-2021. Prevalence was at an all-time high in 2018, following a peak in vole abundance in 2017. Antibodies were identified in fox pups born in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that F. tularensis was actively transmitted during the summers. High precipitation during the summer, increased snow cover and colder temperatures in May, and a higher abundance of voles were all associated with increased seroprevalence in live-captured foxes. Thus, exposure to F. tularensis is largely mediated through climate and rodent populations in the Canadian Arctic, and arctic foxes are useful sentinels for F. tularensis in northern ecosystems. Further studies should investigate whether infection impacts arctic fox survival and reproductive success in the circumpolar North.

Increasing risks for emerging infectious diseases within a rapidly changing High Asia.

The cold and arid mountains and plateaus of High Asia, inhabited by a relatively sparse human population, a high density of livestock, and wildlife such as the iconic snow leopard Panthera uncia, are usually considered low risk for disease outbreaks. However, based on current knowledge about drivers of disease emergence, we show that High Asia is rapidly developing conditions that favor increased emergence of infectious diseases and zoonoses. This is because of the existing prevalence of potentially serious pathogens in the system; intensifying environmental degradation; rapid changes in local ecological, socio-ecological, and socio-economic factors; and global risk intensifiers such as climate change and globalization. To better understand and manage the risks posed by diseases to humans, livestock, and wildlife, there is an urgent need for establishing a disease surveillance system and improving human and animal health care. Public health must be integrated with conservation programs, more ecologically sustainable development efforts and long-term disease surveillance.

Hopping species and borders: detection of Bartonella spp. in avian nest fleas and arctic foxes from Nunavut, Canada.

BACKGROUND: In a warmer and more globally connected Arctic, vector-borne pathogens of zoonotic importance may be increasing in prevalence in native wildlife. Recently, Bartonella henselae, the causative agent of cat scratch fever, was detected in blood collected from arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) that were captured and released in the large goose colony at Karrak Lake, Nunavut, Canada. This bacterium is generally associated with cats and cat fleas, which are absent from Arctic ecosystems. Arctic foxes in this region feed extensively on migratory geese, their eggs, and their goslings. Thus, we hypothesized that a nest flea, Ceratophyllus vagabundus vagabundus (Boheman, 1865), may serve as a vector for transmission of Bartonella spp. METHODS: We determined the prevalence of Bartonella spp. in (i) nest fleas collected from 5 arctic fox dens and (ii) 37 surrounding goose nests, (iii) fleas collected from 20 geese harvested during arrival at the nesting grounds and (iv) blood clots from 57 adult live-captured arctic foxes. A subsample of fleas were identified morphologically as C. v. vagabundus. Remaining fleas were pooled for each nest, den, or host. DNA was extracted from flea pools and blood clots and analyzed with conventional and real-time polymerase chain reactions targeting the 16S-23S rRNA intergenic transcribed spacer region. RESULTS: Bartonella henselae was identified in 43% of pooled flea samples from nests and 40% of pooled flea samples from fox dens. Bartonella vinsonii berkhoffii was identified in 30% of pooled flea samples collected from 20 geese. Both B. vinsonii berkhoffii (n = 2) and B. rochalimae (n = 1) were identified in the blood of foxes. CONCLUSIONS: We confirm that B. henselae, B. vinsonii berkhoffii and B. rochalimae circulate in the Karrak Lake ecosystem and that nest fleas contain B. vinsonii and B. henselae DNA, suggesting that this flea may serve as a potential vector for transmission among Arctic wildlife.

Identification errors in camera-trap studies result in systematic population overestimation.

Reliable assessments of animal abundance are key for successful conservation of endangered species. For elusive animals with individually-unique markings, camera-trap surveys are a benchmark standard for estimating local and global population abundance. Central to the reliability of resulting abundance estimates is the assumption that individuals are accurately identified from photographic captures. To quantify the risk of individual misidentification and its impact on population abundance estimates we performed an experiment under controlled conditions in which 16 captive snow leopards (Panthera uncia) were camera-trapped on 40 occasions and eight observers independently identified individuals and recaptures. Observers misclassified 12.5% of all capture occasions, resulting in systematically inflated population abundance estimates on average by one third (mean ± SD = 35 ± 21%). Our results show that identifying individually-unique individuals from camera-trap photos may not be as reliable as previously believed, implying that elusive and endangered species could be less abundant than current estimates indicate.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.

Correction to: Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided in this correction.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF TOXOPLASMA GONDII IN ARCTIC FOXES (VULPES LAGOPUS): A LONG-TERM MARK-RECAPTURE SEROLOGIC STUDY AT KARRAK LAKE, NUNAVUT, CANADA.

Transmission dynamics of Toxoplasma gondii, a parasite of importance for wildlife and human health, are enigmatic in the Arctic tundra, where free-ranging wild and domestic felid definitive hosts are absent and rarely observed, respectively. Through a multiyear mark-recapture study (2011-17), serosurveillance was conducted to investigate transmission of T. gondii in Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) in the Karrak Lake region, Nunavut, Canada. Sera from adult foxes and fox pups were tested for antibodies to T. gondii by using serologic methods, including the indirect fluorescent antibody test, direct agglutination test, and modified agglutination test. The overall seroprevalence was 39% in adults and 17% in pups. Mature foxes were more likely to be exposed (seroconvert) than young foxes (less than 1 yr old), with the highest level of seroprevalence in midaged foxes (2-4 yr old). Pups in two different litters were seropositive on emergence from the den, around 5 wk old, which could have been due to passive transfer of maternal antibody or vertical transmission of T. gondii from mother to offspring. The seropositive pups were born of seropositive mothers that were also seropositive the year before they gave birth, suggesting that vertical transmission might not be limited to litters from mothers exposed to T. gondii for the first time in pregnancy. All recaptured seropositive foxes remained seropositive on subsequent captures, suggesting that antibodies persist or foxes are constantly reexposed or a combination of both. The results of this study provided insights into how foxes were likely exposed to T. gondii, the dynamics of antibody persistence and immune response, and how the parasite was maintained in a terrestrial Arctic ecosystem in the absence of felid definitive hosts.

Diet shift in bank voles induced by competition from grey-sided voles?

Grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) co-exist in boreal forests in northern Scandinavia. Previous studies suggest that the 2 species interact interspecifically, the grey-sided vole being the dominant species. We tested the hypothesis that bank voles shift their diet due to competition with the dominant grey-sided vole by studying stable isotope ratios in both species. Muscle samples were taken from voles in patches of old forest occupied by only bank voles and patches of old forest occupied by both grey-sided voles and bank voles. We found that: (i) stable isotope ratios of bank voles differed in areas with and without grey-sided voles; and that (ii) the stable isotope ratios of bank voles were more similar to those of grey-sided voles in areas where grey-sided voles were absent. Our data suggests that grey-sided voles forced bank voles to change their diet due to interspecific competition.

Variation in home range size of red foxes Vulpes vulpes along a gradient of productivity and human landscape alteration.

Home range size is a fundamental concept for understanding animal dispersion and ecological needs, and it is one of the most commonly reported ecological attributes of free-ranging mammals. Previous studies indicate that red foxes Vulpes vulpes display great variability in home range size. Yet, there has been little consensus regarding the reasons why home range sizes of red foxes vary so extensively. In this study, we examine possible causes of variation in red fox home range sizes using data from 52 GPS collared red foxes from four study areas representing a gradient of landscape productivity and human landscape alteration in Norway and Sweden. Using 90% Local Convex Hull home range estimates, we examined how red fox home range size varied in relation to latitude, elevation, vegetation zone, proportion of agricultural land and human settlement within a home range, and sex and age. We found considerable variation in red fox home range sizes, ranging between 0.95 km2 to 44 km2 (LoCoH 90%) and 2.4 km2 to 358 km2 (MCP 100%). Elevation, proportion of agricultural land and sex accounted for 50% of the variation in home range size found amongst foxes, with elevation having the strongest effect. Red foxes residing in more productive landscapes (those in more southern vegetation zones), had home ranges approximately four times smaller than the home ranges of foxes in the northern boreal vegetation zone. Our results indicate that home range size was influenced by a productivity gradient at both the landscape (latitude) and the local (elevation) scale. The influence of the proportion of agriculture land on home range size of foxes illustrates how human landscape alteration can affect the space use and distribution of red foxes. Further, the variation in home range size found in this study demonstrates the plasticity of red foxes to respond to changing human landscape alteration as well as changes in landscape productivity, which may be contributing to red fox population increases and northern range expansions.

ESTIMATING TOXOPLASMA GONDII EXPOSURE IN ARCTIC FOXES (VULPES LAGOPUS) WHILE NAVIGATING THE IMPERFECT WORLD OF WILDLIFE SEROLOGY.

Although the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii is ubiquitous in birds and mammals worldwide, the full suite of hosts and transmission routes is not completely understood, especially in the Arctic. Toxoplasma gondii occurrence in humans and wildlife can be high in Arctic regions, despite apparently limited opportunities for transmission of oocysts shed by felid definitive hosts. Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) are under increasing anthropogenic and ecologic pressure, leading to population declines in parts of their range. Our understanding of T. gondii occurrence in arctic foxes is limited to only a few regions, but mortality events caused by this parasite have been reported. We investigated the exposure of arctic foxes to T. gondii in the Karrak Lake goose colony, Queen Maud Gulf Migratory Bird Sanctuary, Nunavut, Canada. Following an occupancy-modeling framework, we performed replicated antibody testing on serum samples by direct agglutination test (DAT), indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT), and an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) that can be used in multiple mammalian host species. As a metric of test performance, we then estimated the probability of detecting T. gondii antibodies for each of the tests. Occupancy estimates for T. gondii antibodies in arctic foxes under this framework were between 0.430 and 0.758. Detection probability was highest for IFAT (0.716) and lower for DAT (0.611) and ELISA (0.464), indicating that the test of choice for antibody detection in arctic foxes might be the IFAT. We document a new geographic record of T. gondii exposure in arctic foxes and demonstrate an emerging application of ecologic modeling techniques to account for imperfect performance of diagnostic tests in wildlife species.

Habitat selection and risk of predation: re-colonization by lynx had limited impact on habitat selection by roe deer.

Risk of predation is an evolutionary force that affects behaviors of virtually all animals. In this study, we examined how habitat selection by roe deer was affected by risk of predation by Eurasian lynx - the main predator of roe deer in Scandinavia. Specifically, we compared how habitat selection by roe deer varied (1) before and after lynx re-established in the study area and (2) in relation to habitat-specific risk of predation by lynx. All analyses were conducted at the spatial and temporal scales of home ranges and seasons. We did not find any evidence that roe deer avoided habitats in which the risk of predation by lynx was greatest and information-theoretic model selection showed that re-colonization by lynx had limited impact on habitat selection by roe deer despite lynx predation causing 65% of known mortalities after lynx re-colonized the area. Instead we found that habitat selection decreased when habitat availability increased for 2 of 5 habitat types (a pattern referred to as functional response in habitat selection). Limited impact of re-colonization by lynx on habitat selection by roe deer in this study differs from elk in North America altering both daily and seasonal patterns in habitat selection at the spatial scales of habitat patches and home ranges when wolves were reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park. Our study thus provides further evidence of the complexity by which animals respond to risk of predation and suggest that it may vary between ecosystems and predator-prey constellations.

Endoparasites in the feces of arctic foxes in a terrestrial ecosystem in Canada.

The parasites of arctic foxes in the central Canadian Arctic have not been well described. Canada's central Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change, which is predicted to cause shifts in parasite and wildlife species distributions, and trophic interactions, requiring that baselines be established to monitor future alterations. This study used conventional, immunological, and molecular fecal analysis techniques to survey the current gastrointestinal endoparasite fauna currently present in arctic foxes in central Nunavut, Canada. Ninety-five arctic fox fecal samples were collected from the terrestrial Karrak Lake ecosystem within the Queen Maud Gulf Migratory Bird Sanctuary. Samples were examined by fecal flotation to detect helminths and protozoa, immunofluorescent assay (IFA) to detect Cryptosporidium and Giardia, and quantitative PCR with melt-curve analysis (qPCR-MCA) to detect coccidia. Positive qPCR-MCA products were sequenced and analyzed phylogenetically. Arctic foxes from Karrak Lake were routinely shedding eggs from Toxascaris leonina (63%). Taeniid (15%), Capillarid (1%), and hookworm eggs (2%), Sarcocystis sp. sporocysts 3%), and Eimeria sp. (6%), and Cystoisospora sp. (5%) oocysts were present at a lower prevalence on fecal flotation. Cryptosporidium sp. (9%) and Giardia sp. (16%) were detected by IFA. PCR analysis detected Sarcocystis (15%), Cystoisospora (5%), Eimeria sp., and either Neospora sp. or Hammondia sp. (1%). Through molecular techniques and phylogenetic analysis, we identified two distinct lineages of Sarcocystis sp. present in arctic foxes, which probably derived from cervid and avian intermediate hosts. Additionally, we detected previously undescribed genotypes of Cystoisospora. Our survey of gastrointestinal endoparasites in arctic foxes from the central Canadian Arctic provides a unique record against which future comparisons can be made.

Patterns of variation in reproductive parameters in Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx).

Detailed knowledge of the variation in demographic rates is central for our ability to understand the evolution of life history strategies and population dynamics, and to plan for the conservation of endangered species. We studied variation in reproductive output of 61 radio-collared Eurasian lynx females in four Scandinavian study sites spanning a total of 223 lynx-years. Specifically, we examined how the breeding proportion and litter size varied among study areas and age classes (2-year-old vs. >2-year-old females). In general, the breeding proportion varied between age classes and study sites, whereas we did not detect such variation in litter size. The lack of differences in litter sizes among age classes is at odds with most findings in large mammals, and we argue that this is because the level of prenatal investment is relatively low in felids compared to their substantial levels of postnatal care.