Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability.

The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green's function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011-2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015-2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green's functions.

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections.

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation.

A major step towards achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would be a measurable change in the evolution of global warming in response to mitigation of anthropogenic emissions. The inertia and internal variability of the climate system, however, will delay the emergence of a discernible response even to strong, sustained mitigation. Here, we investigate when we could expect a significant change in the evolution of global mean surface temperature after strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. Anthropogenic CO2 has the highest potential for a rapidly measurable influence, combined with long term benefits, but the required mitigation is very strong. Black Carbon (BC) mitigation could be rapidly discernible, but has a low net gain in the longer term. Methane mitigation combines rapid effects on surface temperature with long term effects. For other gases or aerosols, even fully removing anthropogenic emissions is unlikely to have a discernible impact before mid-century.

Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming.

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength - and hence the rareness - of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation.

Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulphate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalised by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions.

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying.

Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating, and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multi-model mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model-mean.

Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents.

Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes.

Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results.

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of inter-model differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and needs better quantifications to improve precipitation predictions. Here, we introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve our understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.

Global-scale seasonally resolved black carbon vertical profiles over the Pacific.

[1] Black carbon (BC) aerosol loadings were measured during the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign above the remote Pacific from 85°N to 67°S. Over 700 vertical profiles extending from near the surface to max ∼14 km altitude were obtained with a single-particle soot photometer between early 2009 and mid-2011. The data provides a climatology of BC in the remote regions that reveals gradients of BC concentration reflecting global-scale transport and removal of pollution. BC is identified as a sensitive tracer of extratropical mixing into the lower tropical tropopause layer and trends toward surprisingly uniform loadings in the lower stratosphere of ∼1 ng/kg. The climatology is compared to predictions from the AeroCom global model intercomparison initiative. The AeroCom model suite overestimates loads in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (∼10×) more severely than at lower altitudes (∼3×), with bias roughly independent of season or geographic location; these results indicate that it overestimates BC lifetime.

Production of mesons and baryons at high rapidity and high p(T) in proton-proton collisions at square root[s] = 200 GeV.

We present particle spectra for charged hadrons pi(+/-), K(+/-), p, and p[over] from pp collisions at square root[s] = 200 GeV measured for the first time at forward rapidities (2.95 and 3.3). The kinematics of these measurements are skewed in a way that probes the small momentum fraction in one of the protons and large fractions in the other. Large proton to pion ratios are observed at values of transverse momentum that extend up to 4 GeV/c, where protons have momenta up to 35 GeV. Next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations describe the production of pions and kaons well at these rapidities, but fail to account for the large proton yields and small p[over]/p ratios.

Charged meson rapidity distributions in central Au+Au collisions at square root(sNN) = 200 GeV.

We have measured rapidity densities dN/dy of pi+/- and K+/- over a broad rapidity range (-0.1 < y < 3.5) for central Au + Au collisions at square root(sNN) = 200 GeV. These data have significant implications for the chemistry and dynamics of the dense system that is initially created in the collisions. The full phase-space yields are 1660 +/- 15 +/- 133 (pi+), 1683 +/- 16 +/- 135 (pi-), 286 +/- 5 +/- 23 (K+), and 242 +/- 4 +/- 19 (K-). The systematics of the strange to nonstrange meson ratios are found to track the variation of the baryochemical potential with rapidity and energy. Landau-Carruthers hydrodynamics is found to describe the bulk transport of the pions in the longitudinal direction.

Centrality dependence of charged-particle pseudorapidity distributions from d + Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 200 GeV.

Charged-particle pseudorapidity densities are presented for the d + Au reaction at sqrt[s(NN)] = 200 GeV with -4.2 < or = eta < or = 4.2. The results, from the BRAHMS experiment at BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider, are shown for minimum-bias events and 0%-30%, 30%-60%, and 60%-80% centrality classes. Models incorporating both soft physics and hard, perturbative QCD-based scattering physics agree well with the experimental results. The data do not support predictions based on strong-coupling, semiclassical QCD. In the deuteron-fragmentation region the central 200 GeV data show behavior similar to full-overlap d+Au results at sqrt[s(NN)] = 19.4 GeV.

Nuclear stopping in Au+Au collisions at square root of S(NN)=200 GeV.

Transverse momentum spectra and rapidity densities, dN/dy, of protons, antiprotons, and net protons (p-p) from central (0%-5%) Au+Au collisions at square root of S(NN)=200 GeV were measured with the BRAHMS experiment within the rapidity range 0

Evolution of the nuclear modification factors with rapidity and centrality in d + Au collisions at (sqrt)[N(S)N]=200 GeV.

We report on a study of the transverse momentum dependence of nuclear modification factors R(dAu) for charged hadrons produced in deuteron + gold collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV, as a function of collision centrality and of the pseudorapidity (eta=0, 1, 2.2, 3.2) of the produced hadrons. We find a significant and systematic decrease of R(dAu) with increasing rapidity. The midrapidity enhancement and the forward rapidity suppression are more pronounced in central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. These results are relevant to the study of the possible onset of gluon saturation at energies reached at BNL RHIC.

Transverse-momentum spectra in Au+Au and d+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV and the pseudorapidity dependence of high-p(T) suppression.

We present spectra of charged hadrons from Au+Au and d+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV measured with the BRAHMS experiment at RHIC. The spectra for different collision centralities are compared to spectra from p+(-)p collisions at the same energy scaled by the number of binary collisions. The resulting ratios (nuclear modification factors) for central Au+Au collisions at eta=0 and eta=2.2 evidence a strong suppression in the high p(T) region (>2 GeV/c). In contrast, the d+Au nuclear modification factor (at eta=0) exhibits an enhancement of the high p(T) yields. These measurements indicate a high energy loss of the high p(T) particles in the medium created in the central Au+Au collisions. The lack of suppression in d+Au collisions makes it unlikely that initial state effects can explain the suppression in the central Au+Au collisions.

Rapidity dependence of charged antihadron to hadron ratios in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV.

We present ratios of the numbers of charged antihadrons to hadrons (pions, kaons, and protons) in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV as a function of rapidity in the range y=0-3. While the ratios at midrapidity are approaching unity, the K(-)/K(+) and p;/p ratios decrease significantly at forward rapidities. An interpretation of the results within the statistical model indicates a reduction of the baryon chemical potential from mu(B) approximately 130 MeV at y=3 to mu(B) approximately 25 MeV at y=0.