Trajectories of Kidney Function in Heart Failure Over a 15-Year Follow-Up: Clinical Profiling and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the long-term trajectory of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with chronic heart failure. OBJECTIVES: The authors evaluated eGFR dynamics using the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation and its prognostic significance in a real-world cohort over a 15-year follow-up. METHODS: A prospective observational registry of ambulatory heart failure outpatients was conducted, with regular eGFR assessments at baseline and on a 3-month schedule for ≤15 years. Urgent kidney function assessments were excluded. Locally weighted error sum of squares curves were plotted for predefined subgroups. Multivariable longitudinal Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess associations with all-cause and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: A total of 2,672 patients were enrolled consecutively between August 2001 and December 2021. The average age was 66.8 ± 12.6 years, and 69.8% were men. Among 40,970 creatinine measurements, 28,634 were used for eGFR analysis, averaging 10.7 ± 8.5 per patient. Over the study period, a significant decline in eGFR was observed in the entire cohort, with a slope of -1.70 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year (95% CI: -1.75 to -1.66 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year). Older patients, those with diabetes, a preserved ejection fraction, a higher baseline eGFR, elevated hospitalization rates, and those who died during follow-up experienced more pronounced decreases in the eGFR. Moreover, the decrease in kidney function correlated independently with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the sustained decline in eGFR over 15 years in patients with heart failure, with variations based on clinical characteristics, and emphasize the importance of regular eGFR monitoring in this population.

Characteristics of drug safety alerts issued by the Spanish Medicines Agency.

Objectives: To describe the characteristics of safety alerts issued by the Spanish Medicines Agency (AEMPS) and the Spanish Pharmacovigilance System over a 7-year period and the regulatory actions they generated. Methods: A retrospective analysis was carried out of drug safety alerts published on the AEMPS website from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019. Alerts that were not drug-related or were addressed to patients rather than healthcare professionals were excluded. Results: During the study period, 126 safety alerts were issued, 12 of which were excluded because they were not related to drugs or were addressed to patients and 22 others were excluded as they were duplications of previous alerts. The remaining 92 alerts reported 147 adverse drug reactions (ADRs) involving 84 drugs. The most frequent source of information triggering a safety alert was spontaneous reporting (32.6%). Four alerts (4.3%) specifically addressed health issues related to children. ADRs were considered serious in 85.9% of the alerts. The most frequent ADRs were hepatitis (seven alerts) and congenital malformations (five alerts), and the most frequent drug classes were antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents (23%). Regarding the drugs involved, 22 (26.2%) were "under additional monitoring." Regulatory actions induced changes in the Summary of Product Characteristics in 44.6% of alerts, and in eight cases (8.7%), the alert led to withdrawal from the market of medicines with an unfavorable benefit/risk ratio. Conclusion: This study provides an overview of drug safety alerts issued by the Spanish Medicines Agency over a 7-year period and highlights the contribution of spontaneous reporting of ADRs and the need to assess safety throughout the lifecycle of medicines.

Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure: A 20-Year Perspective From a Mediterranean Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF) remains an unmet need. The aim of our study was to assess the prevalence of SCD over 20 years in outpatients with HF managed in a Mediterranean multidisciplinary HF Clinic, and to compare the proportion of SCD (SCD/all-cause death) to the expected proportional occurrence based on the validated Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) score. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective observational registry study included 2772 outpatients with HF admitted between August 2001 and May 2021. Patients were included when the cause of death was known and SPRM score was available. Over the 20-year study period, 1351 patients (48.7%) died during a median follow-up period of 3.8 years (interquartile range 1.6-7.6). Among these patients, the proportion of SCD out of the total of deaths was 13.6%, whereas the predicted by SPRM was 39.6%. This lower proportion of SCD was observed independently of left ventricular ejection fraction, ischemic etiology, and the presence of an implantable cardiac defibrillator. CONCLUSIONS: In a Mediterranean cohort of outpatients with HF, the proportion of SCD was lower than expected based on the SPRM score. Future studies should investigate to what extend epidemiological and guideline-directed medical therapy patterns influence SCD.

Global warming, renal function and heart failure over 20 years.

BACKGROUND: The impact of increasing temperatures on renal function in heart failure (HF) outpatients has never been specifically analyzed. METHODS: We retrieved creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values of all HF outpatients followed at a HF clinic and temperature data from 2002 to 2021. For each patient and each year we averaged values of creatinine, eGFR and monthly temperatures during summer and the rest of the year. RESULTS: The study cohort included 2167 HF patients undergoing 25,865 elective visits, with a median of 14 visits for each patient (interquartile range 7-23). At the first visit, patients (70% men) had an age of 67 ± 13 years, and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35 ± 14%. Creatinine was 1.25 ± 0.51 mg/dL, and eGFR was 65 ± 25 mL/min/1.73 m2. When pooling together all average values of creatinine and eGFR measured during summer or in the rest of the year, creatinine was significantly higher in summer (difference 0.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.04 to 0.05, p < 0.001), and eGFR was slightly lower (difference - 2.0, 95% CI -2.3 to -1.8, p < 0.001). Temperature rise during summer increased from 2002 to 2021. The absolute (Δ) and percent (Δ%) elevation in temperature during summer displayed independent associations with Δ and Δ% creatinine and eGFR after adjusting for age, sex, plasma creatinine, and HF therapies. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of temperature elevation during summer has increased over 20 years. This elevation correlates with the decline in renal function during summer. This might be an example of how global warming is affecting human health.

Mortality Risk Prediction Dynamics After Heart Failure Treatment Optimization: Repeat Risk Assessment Using Online Risk Calculators.

Objectives: Heart failure (HF) management has significantly improved over the past two decades, leading to better survival. This study aimed to assess changes in predicted mortality risk after 12 months of management in a multidisciplinary HF clinic. Materials and Methods: Out of 1,032 consecutive HF outpatients admitted from March-2012 to November-2018, 357 completed the 12-months follow-up and had N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), high sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT), and interleukin-1 receptor-like-1 (known as ST2) measurements available both at baseline and follow-up. Three contemporary risk scores were used: MAGGIC-HF, Seattle HF Model (SHFM), and the Barcelona Bio-HF (BCN Bio-HF) calculator, which incorporates the three above mentioned biomarkers. The predicted risk of all-cause death at 1 and 3 years was calculated at baseline and re-evaluated after 12 months. Results: A significant decline in predicted 1-and 3-year mortality risk was observed at 12 months: MAGGIC ~16%, SHFM ~22% and BCN Bio-HF ~15%. In the HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) subgroup guideline-directed medical therapy led to a complete normalization of left ventricular ejection fraction (≥50%) in almost a third of the patients and to a partial normalization (41-49%) in 30% of them. Repeated risk assessment after 12 months with SHFM and BCN Bio-HF provided adequate discrimination for all-cause 3-year mortality (C-Index: MAGGIC-HF 0.762, SHFM 0.781 and BCN Bio-HF 0.791). Conclusion: Mortality risk declines in patients with HF managed for 12 months in a multidisciplinary HF clinic. Repeating the mortality risk assessment after optimizing the HF treatment is recommended, particularly in the HFrEF subgroup.

Sacubitril/valsartan affects pulmonary arterial pressure in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and pulmonary hypertension.

AIMS: Prior studies have not fully characterized the haemodynamic effects of the angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) sacubitril/valsartan in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and pulmonary hypertension (HFpEF-PH). The aim of the Treatment of PH With Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker and Neprilysin Inhibitor in HFpEF Patients With CardioMEMS Device (ARNIMEMS-HFpEF) study is to assess pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) dynamics by means of implanted PAP monitors in patients with HFpEF-PH treated with sacubitril/valsartan. METHODS AND RESULTS: This single-arm, investigator-initiated, interventional study included 14 consecutive ambulatory symptomatic HFpEF-PH patients who underwent CardioMEMS implantation prior to enrolment [mean ejection fraction 60.4 ± 7.2%, baseline mean PAP (mPAP) 33.9 ± 7.6 mmHg]. Daily PAP values were examined during three periods: a 6 week period after CardioMEMS implantation and before sacubitril/valsartan treatment (pre-ARNI), a 6 week period with sacubitril/valsartan treatment (ARNI ON), and a 6 week period of sacubitril/valsartan withdrawal (ARNI OFF). The primary endpoint was change in mPAP with and without sacubitril/valsartan. Secondary endpoints included changes in 6 min walking distance, B-line sum in lung ultrasound, and quality of life (QoL). During the study period, 1717 mPAP measurements were recorded. Between pre-ARNI vs. ARNI ON, mPAP significantly declined by -4.99 mmHg [95% confidence interval (CI) -5.55 to -4.43]. Between ARNI ON vs. ARNI OFF, mPAP significantly increased by +2.84 mmHg [95% CI +2.26 to +3.42]. Between pre-ARNI vs. ARNI ON, we found an improvement in 6 min walking distance, B-lines, and QoL. Mean loop diuretic management did not differ between periods. CONCLUSIONS: Sacubitril/valsartan significantly reduced mPAP in patients with HFpEF-PH, independent of loop diuretic management, together with improvement in functional capacity, lung congestion, and QoL. Sacubitril/valsartan may be a therapeutic alternative in HFpEF-PH.

Cause of Death in Heart Failure Based on Etiology: Long-Term Cohort Study of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality.

We assessed differences in long-term all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in heart failure (HF) outpatients based on the etiology of HF. Consecutive patients admitted to the HF Clinic from August 2001 to September 2019 (N = 2587) were considered for inclusion. HF etiology was divided into ischemic heart disease (IHD), dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), hypertensive heart disease, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, drug-induced cardiomyopathy (DICM), valvular heart disease, and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. All-cause death and CV death were the primary end points. Among 2387 patients included in the analysis (mean age 66.5 ± 12.5 years, 71.3% men), 1317 deaths were recorded (731 from CV cause) over a maximum follow-up of 18 years (median 4.1 years, interquartile range (IQR) 2-7.8). Considering IHD as the reference, only DCM had a lower risk of all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.83, p < 0.001), and only DICM had a higher risk of all-cause death (aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.02-2.11, p = 0.04). However, almost all etiologies had a significantly lower risk of CV death than IHD. Among the studied HF etiologies, DCM and DICM have the lowest and highest risk of all-cause death, respectively, whereas IHD has the highest adjusted risk of CV death.

Head-to-head comparison of contemporary heart failure risk scores.

AIMS: Several heart failure (HF) web-based risk scores are currently used in clinical practice. Currently, we lack head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of risk scores. This study aimed to assess correlation and mortality prediction performance of Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, which includes clinical variables + medications; Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), which includes clinical variables + treatments + analytes; PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in the Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure (PREDICT-HF) and Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, which also include biomarkers, like N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 1166 consecutive patients with HF from different aetiologies that had NT-proBNP measurement at first visit were included. Discrimination for all-cause mortality was compared by Harrell's C-statistic from 1 to 5 years, when possible. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and global performance by Nagelkerke's R2 . Correlation between scores was assessed by Spearman rank test. Correlation between the scores was relatively poor (rho value from 0.66 to 0.79). Discrimination analyses showed better results for 1-year mortality than for longer follow-up (SHFM 0.817, MAGGIC-HF 0.801, PREDICT-HF 0.799, BCN-Bio-HF 0.830). MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, BCN-Bio-HF overestimated risk while SHFM and PREDICT-HF underestimated it. BCN-Bio-HF provided the best discrimination and overall performance at every time-point. CONCLUSIONS: None of the contemporary risk scores examined showed a clear superiority over the rest. BCN-Bio-HF calculator provided the best discrimination and overall performance with overestimation of risk. MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, and SHFM and PREDICT-HF tended to underestimate risk. Regular updating and recalibration of online web calculators seems necessary to improve their accuracy as HF management evolves at unprecedented pace.

Circulating neprilysin hypothesis: A new opportunity for sacubitril/valsartan in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction?

BACKGROUND: Circulating Neprilysin (sNEP) has emerged as a potential prognostic biomarker in heart failure (HF). In PARAGON-HF benefit of sacubitril/valsartan was only observed in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤57%. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of sNEP in outpatients with HF and LVEF >57%, in comparison with patients with LVEF ≤57%. METHODS: Consecutive HF outpatients were included from May-2006 to February-2016. The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization and the main secondary endpoint was the composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. For the later competing risk methods were used. RESULTS: sNEP was measured in 1428 patients (age 67.7±12.7, 70.3% men, LVEF 35.8% ±14), 144 of which had a LVEF >57%. sNEP levels did not significantly differ between LVEF groups (p = 0.31). During a mean follow-up of 6±3.9 years, the primary endpoint occurred in 979 patients and the secondary composite endpoint in 714 (in 111 and 84 of the 144 patients with LVEF >57%, respectively). sNEP was significantly associated with both composite endpoints. Age- and sex- adjusted Cox regression analyses showed higher hazard ratios for sNEP in patients with LVEF >57%, both for the primary (HR 1.37 [1.16-1.61] vs. 1.04 [0.97-1.11]) and the secondary (HR 1.38 [1.21-1.55] vs. 1.11 [1.04-1.18]) composite endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: sNEP prognostic value in patients with HF and LVEF >57% outperforms that observed in patients with lower LVEF. Precision medicine using sNEP may identify HF patients with preserved LVEF that may benefit from treatment with sacubitril/valsartan.

Mortality trends in an ambulatory multidisciplinary heart failure unit from 2001 to 2018.

To assess mortality trends at 1 and 3 years from 2001 to 2018 in a real-life cohort of HF outpatients from different etiologies with depressed and preserved LVEF. A total of 2368 consecutive patients with HF (mean age 66.4 ± 12.9 years, 71% men, 15.4% with preserved LVEF) admitted to a HF clinic from August 2001 to September 2018 were included in the study. Patients were divided into five quintiles (Q) according to the period of admission. Trends for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality from Q1 to Q5 were assessed by linear regression. Patients with LVEF < 50% had a progressive decrease in the rates of all-cause and cardiovascular death at 1 year (12.1% in Q1 to 6.5% in Q5, p = 0.003; and 8.4% in Q1 to 3.8% in Q5, p = 0.007, respectively) and 3 years (30.5% in Q1 to 17.0% in Q5, p = 0.003; and 23.9% in Q1 to 9.8% in Q5, p = 0.003, respectively). These trends remained significant after adjusting for clinical characteristics and risk. No significant trend in mortality was observed in patients with LVEF ≥ 50%. In a cohort of real-life ambulatory patients with HF, mortality progressively declined in patients with LVEF < 50%, but the same trend was not observed in patients with preserved LVEF.

Prognostic value of lung ultrasound in chronic stable ambulatory heart failure patients.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The role of lung ultrasound (LUS) in acute heart failure (HF) has been widely studied, but little is known about its usefulness in chronic HF. This study assessed the prognostic value of LUS in a cohort of chronic HF stable ambulatory patients. METHODS: We included consecutive outpatients who attended a scheduled follow-up visit in a HF clinic. LUS was performed in situ. The operators were blinded to clinical data and examined 8 thoracic areas. The sum of B-lines across all lung zones and the quartiles of this addition were used for the analyses. Linear regression and Cox regression analyses were performed. The main clinical outcomes were a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization for HF and mortality from any cause. RESULTS: A total of 577 individuals were included (72% men; 69± 12 years). The mean number of B-lines was 5±6. During a mean follow-up of 31±7 months, 157 patients experienced the main clinical outcome and 111 died. Having ≥ 8 B-lines (Q4) doubled the risk of experiencing the composite primary event (P <.001) and increased the risk of death from any cause by 2.6-fold (P <.001). On multivariate analysis, the total sum of B-lines remained independent predictive factor of the composite endpoint (HR, 1.04; 95%CI, 1.02-1.06; P=.002) and of all-cause death (HR, 1.04; 95%CI, 1.02-1.07; P=.001), independently of whether or not N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was included in the model (P=.01 and P=.008, respectively), with a 3% to 4% increased risk for each 1-line addition. CONCLUSIONS: LUS identified patients with stable chronic HF at high risk of death or HF hospitalization.

Pulmonary hypertension and right ventricular dysfunction in heart failure: prognosis and 15-year prospective longitudinal trajectories in survivors.

AIMS: Systolic pulmonary artery pressure (SPAP), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), and TAPSE/SPAP ratio trajectories are not fully characterized in chronic heart failure (HF). We assessed very long-term longitudinal SPAP, TAPSE and TAPSE/SPAP trajectories in HF patients, and their dynamic changes in outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective, consecutive, observational registry of real-life HF patients, performing echocardiography studies at baseline and according to a prospectively structured schedule after 1 year, and then every 2 years, up to 15 years. Pulmonary hypertension (PH) was defined as SPAP ≥40 mmHg; right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) was defined at TAPSE ≤16 mm; and TAPSE/SPAP ratio was dichotomized at 0.36 mm/mmHg. The clinical endpoints were all-cause death, the composite endpoint of mortality or HF hospitalization and the number of recurrent HF hospitalizations. The study cohort included 1557 patients. Long-term SPAP trajectory Loess curves were U-shaped with a nadir at 7 years. TAPSE Loess curves showed a marked rise during the first year, with stabilization thereafter. TAPSE/SPAP ratio Loess splines were similar to the later with a smooth decline towards the end. Patients who died had higher SPAP, lower TAPSE and lower TAPSE/SPAP ratio in the preceding period than survivors. Baseline PH and/or RVD were independently associated with mortality and HF-related hospitalizations, and the persistence of one or both entities at 1 year conferred a worse long-term prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term trajectories for SPAP, TAPSE and TAPSE/SPAP ratio are reported in patients with chronic HF. An increasing SPAP and declining TAPSE and TAPSE/SPAP ratio in the preceding period is associated with higher mortality.

Long-term LVEF trajectories in patients with type 2 diabetes and heart failure: diabetic cardiomyopathy may underlie functional decline.

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) trajectories and functional recovery with current heart failure (HF) management is increasingly recognized. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) leads to a worse prognosis in HF patients. However, it is unknown whether T2D interferes with LVEF trajectories. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess very long-term (up to 15 years) LVEF trajectories in patients with and without T2D and underlying HF. METHODS: Ambulatory patients admitted to a multidisciplinary HF clinic were prospectively evaluated by scheduled two-dimensional echocardiography at baseline, 1 year, and then every 2 years afterwards, up to 15 years. Statistical analyses of LVEF change with time were performed using the linear mixed effects (LME) models, and locally weighted error sum of squares (Loess) curves were plotted. RESULTS: Of the 1921 patients, 461 diabetic and 699 non-diabetic patients with LVEF < 50% were included in the study. The mean number of echocardiography measurements performed in diabetic patients was 3.3 ± 1.6. Early LVEF recovery was similar in diabetic and non-diabetic patients, but Loess curves showed a more pronounced inverted U shape in diabetics with a more pronounced decline after 9 years. LME analysis showed a statistical interaction between T2D and LVEF trajectory over time (p = 0.009), which was statistically significant in patients with ischemic etiologies (p < 0.001). Other variables that showed an interaction between LVEF trajectories and T2D were male sex (p = 0.04) and HF duration (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: LVEF trajectories in T2D patients with depressed systolic function showed a pronounced inverted U shape with a marked decline after 9 years. Diabetic cardiomyopathy may underlie the functional decline observed.

Adverse drug reactions. / Reacciones adversas a medicamentos.

An adverse drug reaction (ADR) is defined as a response to a medicinal product which is noxious and unintended. ADRs are an important cause of morbidity and mortality and increase health costs. The pharmacovigilance systems allow the identification and prevention of the risks associated with use of a drug, especially of recently marketed drugs; they detect signals from data of the global ADR register and also support decisions taken by regulatory agencies in different countries. Only a few drugs are withdrawn from the market, mainly due to hepatotoxicity. Spontaneous notification of ADR is the cheapest, simplest and most used method to recognize new safety drug problems, under-reporting being its main limitation. The future of pharmacovigilance and ADRs will include a higher involvement of patients, doctors, health authorities and pharmaceutical companies, and the use of new technologies.

Trends in modes of death in heart failure over the last two decades: less sudden death but cancer deaths on the rise.

AIMS: Better management of heart failure (HF) over the past two decades has improved survival, mainly by reducing the incidence of death due to cardiovascular (CV) causes. Deaths due to non-CV causes, particularly cancer, may be increasing. This study explored the modes of death of consecutive patients who attended a HF clinic over 17 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 935 deaths were ascertained from 2002 to 2018 among 1876 patients (mean age 65.8 ± 12.5 years, 75% men, left ventricular ejection fraction < 50%) admitted to our HF clinic. Median follow-up was 4.2 years [1.9-7.8]. Mode of death was curated from patient health records and verified by the Catalan and Spanish health system databases. Trends for every mode of death were assessed by polynomial regression. Two trends were observed: a significant reduction in sudden death (P = 0.03) without changes in HF progression as mode of death (P = 0.26), and a significant increase in non-CV modes of death (P < 0.001). Non-CV deaths accounted for 17.4% of deaths in 2002 and 65.8% of deaths in 2018. A total 138 deaths were due to cancer (37% of non-CV deaths). A significant trend was observed towards a progressive increase in cancer deaths over time (P = 0.002). The main mode of cancer mortality was lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The modes of death in HF have shifted over the last two decades. Patients with HF die less due to sudden death and more due to non-CV causes, mainly cancer. Whether HF triggers cancer, or cancer develops in HF survivors, deserves further insight.

A bio-clinical approach for prediction of sudden cardiac death in outpatients with heart failure: The ST2-SCD score.

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is one of the main modes of death in heart failure (HF) patients and its prediction remains a real challenge. Our aim was to assess the incidence of SCD at 5 years HF contemporary managed outpatients, and to find a simple prediction model for SCD. METHODS: SCD was considered any unexpected death, witnessed or not, occurring in a previously stable patient with no evidence of worsening HF or any other cause of death. A competing risk strategy was adopted using the Fine-Gray method of Cox regressions analyses that considered other causes of death as the competing event. RESULTS: The derivation cohort included 744 consecutive outpatients (72% men, age 67.9 ±â€¯12.2 years, left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 36% ±â€¯14). During follow-up, 312 deaths occurred, 40 SCDs (5.4%). Age, haemoglobin, eGFR, HF duration, high-sensitivity troponin T, NTproBNP, and ST2 were associated with SCD in univariate analyses; HF duration (p = 0.006), eGFR (p < 0.001), LVEF <45% (p = 0.03), and ST2 (p = 0.006) remained in multivariable analysis. A predictive score (ST2-SCD) including dichotomous variables (ST2 > 45, LVEF <45%, HF duration >3 years, eGFR < 55, age ≥ 60 years and male sex) provided a Harrell's C-statistic of 0.82 (0.76-0.89)), reaching 0.87 (0.80-0.95) in the validation cohort (n = 149). CONCLUSIONS: In contemporary managed HF, SCD occurred in 5.4% of outpatients, accounting for 12.8% of all deaths at 5 years. Of the 3 studied biomarkers, only ST2 remained independently associated with SCD. A model containing age, sex, ST2, eGFR, LVEF, and HF duration reasonably predicted 5-years risk of SCD.

Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Infrequently Evolves Toward a Reduced Phenotype in Long-Term Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Long-term trajectories of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in heart failure (HF) patients with preserved EF (HFpEF) remain unclear. Our objective was to assess long-term longitudinal trajectories in consecutive HFpEF patients and the prognostic impact of LVEF dynamic changes over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive ambulatory HFpEF patients admitted to a multidisciplinary HF Unit were prospectively evaluated by 2-dimensional echocardiography at baseline and at 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 years of follow-up. Exclusion criteria were patients having a previous known LVEF <50%, patients undergoing only 1 echocardiogram study, and those with a diagnosis of dilated, noncompaction, alcoholic, or toxic cardiomyopathy. One hundred twenty-six patients (age, 71±13 years; 63% women) were included. The main pathogeneses were valvular disease (36%) and hypertension (28%). Atrial fibrillation was present in 67 patients (53%). The mean number of echocardiographies performed was 3±1.2 per patient. Locally weighted error sum of squares curves showed a smooth decrease of LVEF during the 11-year follow-up that was statistically significant in linear mixed-effects modeling ( P=0.01). Ischemic patients showed a higher decrease than nonischemics. The great majority (88.9%) of patients remained in the HFpEF category during follow-up; 9.5% evolved toward HF with midrange LVEF, and only 1.6% dropped to HF with reduced LVEF. No significant relationship was found between LVEF dynamics in the immediate preceding period and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: LVEF remained ≥50% in the majority of patients with HFpEF for ≤11 years. Only 1.6% of patients evolved to HF with reduced LVEF. Dynamic LVEF changes were not associated with mortality.

Comorbidities, Fragility, and Quality of Life in Heart Failure Patients With Midrange Ejection Fraction.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of comorbidities, fragility, and quality of life (QOL) on long-term prognosis in ambulatory patients with heart failure (HF) with midrange left ventricular ejection fraction (HFmrEF), an unexplored area. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients prospectively evaluated at an HF clinic between August 1, 2001, and December 31, 2015, were retrospectively analyzed on the basis of left ventricular ejection fraction category. We compared patients with HFmrEF (n=185) to those with reduced (HFrEF; n=1058) and preserved (HFpEF; n=162) ejection fraction. Fragility was defined as 1 or more abnormal evaluations on 4 standardized geriatric scales (Barthel Index, Older Americans Resources and Services scale, Pfeiffer Test, and abbreviated-Geriatric Depression Scale). The QOL was assessed with the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire. A comorbidity score (0-7) was constructed. All-cause death, HF-related hospitalization, and the composite end point of both were assessed. RESULTS: Comorbidities and QOL scores were similar in HFmrEF (2.41±1.5 and 30.1±18.3, respectively) and HFrEF (2.30±1.4 and 30.8±18.5, respectively) and were higher in HFpEF (3.02±1.5, P<.001, and 36.5±20.7, P=.003, respectively). No statistically significant differences in fragility between HFmrEF (48.6%) and HFrEF (41.9%) (P=.09) nor HFpEF (54.3%) (P=.29) were found. In univariate analysis, the association of comorbidities, QOL, and fragility with the 3 end points was higher for HFmrEF than for HFrEF and HFpEF. In multivariate analysis, comorbidities were independently associated with the 3 end points (P≤.001), and fragility was independently associated with all-cause death and the composite end point (P<.001) in HFmrEF. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities and fragility are independent predictors of outcomes in ambulatory patients with HFmrHF and should be considered in the routine clinical assessment of HFmrEF.

Dynamic Trajectories of Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Long-term trajectories of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in heart failure (HF) are incompletely characterized. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine LVEF trajectories in HF with reduced LVEF (<40%) and mid-range LVEF (40% to 49%) and the prognostic impact of LVEF dynamic changes over 15-year follow-up. METHODS: In this prospective, consecutive, observational registry of real-life HF outpatients, the authors performed 2-dimensional echocardiography at baseline and on a structured schedule after 1 year and then every 2 years up to 15 years. RESULTS: The mean number of LVEF measurements in the 1,160 included patients was 3.6 ± 1.7. As a whole, Loess curves of long-term LVEF trajectories showed an inverted U shape with a marked rise in LVEF during the first year, maintained up to a decade, and a slow LVEF decline thereafter (p for trajectory <0.001). This pattern was more pronounced in HF of nonischemic origin and in women. Patients with new-onset HF (≤12 months) had a higher early increase in LVEF, whereas patients with ischemic HF showed a lower LVEF increase at 1 year; both groups had a relative plateau thereafter. Patients with HF with mid-range LVEF had less of an increase (3 ± 9%) than those with HF with reduced LVEF (9 ± 12%) during the first year (p < 0.001), but the groups overlapped after 15 years. Patients who died had lower final LVEF and worse LVEF dynamics in the immediately preceding period than survivors. CONCLUSIONS: LVEF trajectories vary in HF depending on a number of disease modifiers, but an inverted U-shaped pattern with lower LVEF at both ends of the distribution emerged. A declining LVEF in the preceding period was associated with higher mortality.