The Development and Inclusion of Questions on Surgery in the 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: While primary data on the unmet need for surgery in low- and middle-income countries is lacking, household surveys could provide an entry point to collect such data. We describe the first development and inclusion of questions on surgery in a nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Zambia. METHOD: Questions regarding surgical conditions were developed through an iterative consultative process and integrated into the rollout of the DHS survey in Zambia in 2018 and administered to a nationwide sample survey of eligible women aged 15-49 years and men aged 15-59 years. RESULTS: In total, 7 questions covering 4 themes of service delivery, diagnosed burden of surgical disease, access to care, and quality of care were added. The questions were administered across 12,831 households (13,683 women aged 15-49 years and 12,132 men aged 15-59 years). Results showed that approximately 5% of women and 2% of men had undergone an operation in the past 5 years. Among women, cesarean delivery was the most common surgery; circumcision was the most common procedure among men. In the past 5 years, an estimated 0.61% of the population had been told by a health care worker that they might need surgery, and of this group, 35% had undergone the relevant procedure. CONCLUSION: For the first time, questions on surgery have been included in a nationwide DHS. We have shown that it is feasible to integrate these questions into a large-scale survey to provide insight into surgical needs at a national level. Based on the DHS design and implementation mechanisms, a country interested in including a set of questions like the one included in Zambia, could replicate this data collection in other settings, which provides an opportunity for systematic collection of comparable surgical data, a vital role in surgical health care system strengthening.

Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.

OBJECTIVES: To assist with planning hospital resources, including critical care (CC) beds, for managing patients with COVID-19. METHODS: An individual simulation was implemented in Microsoft Excel using a discretely integrated condition event simulation. Expected daily cases presented to the emergency department were modeled in terms of transitions to and from ward and CC and to discharge or death. The duration of stay in each location was selected from trajectory-specific distributions. Daily ward and CC bed occupancy and the number of discharges according to care needs were forecast for the period of interest. Face validity was ascertained by local experts and, for the case study, by comparing forecasts with actual data. RESULTS: To illustrate the use of the model, a case study was developed for Guy's and St Thomas' Trust. They provided inputs for January 2020 to early April 2020, and local observed case numbers were fit to provide estimates of emergency department arrivals. A peak demand of 467 ward and 135 CC beds was forecast, with diminishing numbers through July. The model tended to predict higher occupancy in Level 1 than what was eventually observed, but the timing of peaks was quite close, especially for CC, where the model predicted at least 120 beds would be occupied from April 9, 2020, to April 17, 2020, compared with April 7, 2020, to April 19, 2020, in reality. The care needs on discharge varied greatly from day to day. CONCLUSIONS: The DICE simulation of hospital trajectories of patients with COVID-19 provides forecasts of resources needed with only a few local inputs. This should help planners understand their expected resource needs.

Harvard Medical School Department of Global Health and Social Medicine COVID-19 seminar series: COVID and surgical, anesthetic and obstetric care.

On May 21, 2020, the Harvard Program in Global Surgery and Social Change (PGSSC) hosted a webinar as part of the Harvard Medical School Department of Global Health and Social Medicine's COVID-19 webinar series. The goal of PGSSC's virtual webinar was to share the experiences of surgical, anesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) providers on the frontlines of the COVID pandemic, from both high-income countries (HICs), such as the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Providers shared not only their experiences delivering SAO care during this global pandemic, but also solutions and innovations they and their colleagues developed to address these new challenges. Additionally, the seminar explored the relationship between surgery and health system strengthening and pandemic preparedness, and outlined the way forward, including a roadmap for prioritization and investment in surgical system strengthening. Throughout the discussion, other themes emerged as well, such as the definition of elective surgery and its implications during a persistent global pandemic, the safe and ethical reintroduction of surgical services, and the social inequities exposed by the stress placed on health systems by COVID-19. These proceedings document the perspectives shared by participants through their invited lectures as well as through the panel discussion at the end of the seminar.

Global surgery, obstetric, and anaesthesia indicator definitions and reporting: An Utstein consensus report.

BACKGROUND: Indicators to evaluate progress towards timely access to safe surgical, anaesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) care were proposed in 2015 by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. These aimed to capture access to surgery, surgical workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality rate, and catastrophic and impoverishing financial consequences of surgery. Despite being rapidly taken up by practitioners, data points from which to derive the indicators were not defined, limiting comparability across time or settings. We convened global experts to evaluate and explicitly define-for the first time-the indicators to improve comparability and support achievement of 2030 goals to improve access to safe affordable surgical and anaesthesia care globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Utstein process for developing and reporting guidelines through a consensus building process was followed. In-person discussions at a 2-day meeting were followed by an iterative process conducted by email and virtual group meetings until consensus was reached. The meeting was held between June 16 to 18, 2019; discussions continued until August 2020. Participants consisted of experts in surgery, anaesthesia, and obstetric care, data science, and health indicators from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Considering each of the 6 indicators in turn, we refined overarching descriptions and agreed upon data points needed for construction of each indicator at current time (basic data points), and as each evolves over 2 to 5 (intermediate) and >5 year (full) time frames. We removed one of the original 6 indicators (one of 2 financial risk protection indicators was eliminated) and refined descriptions and defined data points required to construct the 5 remaining indicators: geospatial access, workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and catastrophic expenditure. A strength of the process was the number of people from global institutes and multilateral agencies involved in the collection and reporting of global health metrics; a limitation was the limited number of participants from low- or middle-income countries-who only made up 21% of the total attendees. CONCLUSIONS: To track global progress towards timely access to quality SAO care, these indicators-at the basic level-should be implemented universally as soon as possible. Intermediate and full indicator sets should be achieved by all countries over time. Meanwhile, these evolutions can assist in the short term in developing national surgical plans and collecting more detailed data for research studies.

Simulation capacity building in rural Indian hospitals: a 1-year follow-up qualitative analysis.

Introduction: The benefits of simulation-based medical training are well described. The most effective way to plant and scale simulation training in rural locations remains undescribed. We sought to plant simulation training programmes for anaesthesia emergencies in two rural Indian hospitals. Methods: Two Indian consultant anaesthetists without experience in medical simulation underwent a 3-day course at the Boston Children's Hospital's (BCH) Simulator Program. They returned to their institutions and launched simulation programmes with an airway manikin and mock patient monitor. The 1-year experience was evaluated using individual, in-depth interviews of simulation facilitators. Three staff members (responsible for facilitating medical simulations over the prior year) at two rural hospitals in India were interviewed. None attended the BCH training; instead, they received on-the-job training from the BCH-trained, consultant anaesthetist colleagues. Results: Successes included organisational adoption of simulation training with exercises 1 year after the initial BCH-training, increased interdisciplinary teamwork and improved clinical competency in managing emergencies. Barriers to effective, local implementation of simulation programmes fell into three categories: time required to run simulations, fixed and rigid roles, and variable resources. Thematic improvement requests were for standardised resources to help train simulation facilitators and demonstrate to participants a well-run simulation, in addition to context-sensitive scenarios. Conclusion: An in-person training of simulation facilitators to promote medical simulation programmes in rural hospitals produced ongoing simulation programmes 1 year later. In order to make these programmes sustainable, however, increased investment in developing simulation facilitators is required. In particular, simulation facilitators must be prepared to formally train other simulation facilitators, too.

Mortality in sickle cell disease: A population-based study in an aboriginal community in the Gudalur Valley, Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu, India.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease (SCD), the most common monogenic disorder, affects more than 300 000 births annually, with 44  000 in India. Although the clinical phenotype of SCD is considered to be milder in aboriginal populations in India, there is a paucity of data on outcomes. To determine the severity of SCD in this population, we studied mortality rates and causes of mortality in a longitudinal cohort of patients with SCD in a remote aboriginal community in India receiving community-based comprehensive care. PROCEDURES: Causes of death were analyzed in this cohort from January 2008 to December 2018. Details were collected from hospital records and in case of deaths at home by utilizing the WHO verbal autopsy questionnaire. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 157 patients belonging to the Paniya, Betta Kurumba, Kattunyakan, and Mullu Kurumba tribes. During the study period, there were 22 deaths, all from the Paniya tribe. Twelve deaths (54.5%) occurred in the hospital and the remaining at home (45.5%), reflecting a crude mortality rate of 140 per 1000 population. Twenty-five percent of deaths occurred in the 6-18 age group. There were no deaths in the 0-5 age group. The median age of death was 25 years, which was 30 years less than in the non-SCD aboriginal population. The leading causes of death were acute chest syndrome, anemia, and sepsis among the SCD patients and stroke and suicides in the non-SCD aboriginal population. CONCLUSION: SCD is a severe disease among the Gudalur Valley's aboriginal population with a significant risk of premature mortality.

Surgathon: a new model for creating a surgical innovation ecosystem in low-resource settings.

Innovation ecosystems and emerging technologies can potentially accelerate the access to safe, affordable surgical care in low-resource settings. There is a need to develop localised innovation ecosystems that can establish an initial culture and catalyse the creation, adoption and diffusion of innovation. The surgathon model outlines one approach to seeding surgical innovation ecosystems. International academic institutions collaborated on six global surgery, innovation and ethics-themed hackathons ('surgathons') across India and Rwanda between 2016 and 2019. Over 1598 local multidisciplinary students participated, learning about challenges in the delivery of surgical care and ideating solutions that could leverage appropriate technology and resources for impact. Pursuing student ideas and evaluating their implementation past the surgathons continues to be an active effort. Surgathons have unfolded in different permutations based on local faculty, institution and health system context. The surgathon model is a novel method of priority setting challenges in global surgery and utilises locally driven expertise and innovation capacity to derive ethical solutions. The model offers a path for low-resource setting students and faculty to learn, advocate and innovate for improved surgical care.

Ischaemic strokes in patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia: associations with iron deficiency and platelets.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary first pass filtration of particles marginally exceeding ∼7 µm (the size of a red blood cell) is used routinely in diagnostics, and allows cellular aggregates forming or entering the circulation in the preceding cardiac cycle to lodge safely in pulmonary capillaries/arterioles. Pulmonary arteriovenous malformations compromise capillary bed filtration, and are commonly associated with ischaemic stroke. Cohorts with CT-scan evident malformations associated with the highest contrast echocardiographic shunt grades are known to be at higher stroke risk. Our goal was to identify within this broad grouping, which patients were at higher risk of stroke. METHODOLOGY: 497 consecutive patients with CT-proven pulmonary arteriovenous malformations due to hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia were studied. Relationships with radiologically-confirmed clinical ischaemic stroke were examined using logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic analyses, and platelet studies. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Sixty-one individuals (12.3%) had acute, non-iatrogenic ischaemic clinical strokes at a median age of 52 (IQR 41-63) years. In crude and age-adjusted logistic regression, stroke risk was associated not with venous thromboemboli or conventional neurovascular risk factors, but with low serum iron (adjusted odds ratio 0.96 [95% confidence intervals 0.92, 1.00]), and more weakly with low oxygen saturations reflecting a larger right-to-left shunt (adjusted OR 0.96 [0.92, 1.01]). For the same pulmonary arteriovenous malformations, the stroke risk would approximately double with serum iron 6 µmol/L compared to mid-normal range (7-27 µmol/L). Platelet studies confirmed overlooked data that iron deficiency is associated with exuberant platelet aggregation to serotonin (5HT), correcting following iron treatment. By MANOVA, adjusting for participant and 5HT, iron or ferritin explained 14% of the variance in log-transformed aggregation-rate (p = 0.039/p = 0.021). SIGNIFICANCE: These data suggest that patients with compromised pulmonary capillary filtration due to pulmonary arteriovenous malformations are at increased risk of ischaemic stroke if they are iron deficient, and that mechanisms are likely to include enhanced aggregation of circulating platelets.

Arterial oxygen content is precisely maintained by graded erythrocytotic responses in settings of high/normal serum iron levels, and predicts exercise capacity: an observational study of hypoxaemic patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations.

BACKGROUND: Oxygen, haemoglobin and cardiac output are integrated components of oxygen transport: each gram of haemoglobin transports 1.34 mls of oxygen in the blood. Low arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), and haemoglobin saturation (SaO2), are the indices used in clinical assessments, and usually result from low inspired oxygen concentrations, or alveolar/airways disease. Our objective was to examine low blood oxygen/haemoglobin relationships in chronically compensated states without concurrent hypoxic pulmonary vasoreactivity. METHODOLOGY: 165 consecutive unselected patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations were studied, in 98 cases, pre/post embolisation treatment. 159 (96%) had hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia. Arterial oxygen content was calculated by SaO2 x haemoglobin x 1.34/100. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: There was wide variation in SaO2 on air (78.5-99, median 95)% but due to secondary erythrocytosis and resultant polycythaemia, SaO2 explained only 0.1% of the variance in arterial oxygen content per unit blood volume. Secondary erythrocytosis was achievable with low iron stores, but only if serum iron was high-normal: Low serum iron levels were associated with reduced haemoglobin per erythrocyte, and overall arterial oxygen content was lower in iron deficient patients (median 16.0 [IQR 14.9, 17.4]mls/dL compared to 18.8 [IQR 17.4, 20.1]mls/dL, p<0.0001). Exercise tolerance appeared unrelated to SaO2 but was significantly worse in patients with lower oxygen content (p<0.0001). A pre-defined athletic group had higher Hb:SaO2 and serum iron:ferritin ratios than non-athletes with normal exercise capacity. PAVM embolisation increased SaO2, but arterial oxygen content was precisely restored by a subsequent fall in haemoglobin: 86 (87.8%) patients reported no change in exercise tolerance at post-embolisation follow-up. SIGNIFICANCE: Haemoglobin and oxygen measurements in isolation do not indicate the more physiologically relevant oxygen content per unit blood volume. This can be maintained for SaO2 ≥78.5%, and resets to the same arterial oxygen content after correction of hypoxaemia. Serum iron concentrations, not ferritin, seem to predict more successful polycythaemic responses.

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing demonstrates maintenance of exercise capacity in patients with hypoxemia and pulmonary arteriovenous malformations.

BACKGROUND: Patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations (PAVMs) are unusual because hypoxemia results from right-to-left shunting and not airway or alveolar disease. Their surprisingly well-preserved exercise capacity is not generally appreciated. METHODS: To examine why exercise tolerance is preserved, cardiopulmonary exercise tests were performed while breathing room air in 21 patients with radiologically proven PAVMs, including five restudied 3 to 12 months after embolization when their PAVMs had regressed. Where physiologic matching was demonstrable, comparisons were made with 12 healthy control subjects. RESULTS: The majority of patients achieved their predicted work rate despite a resting arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2) of 80% to 96%. Peak work rate and oxygen consumption (VO2) were no lower in patients with more hypoxemia. Despite higher SaO2 following embolization (median, 96% and 90%; P = .009), patients achieved similar work rates and similar peak VO2. Strikingly, treated patients reset to virtually identical peak oxygen pulses (ie, VO2 per heart beat) and in many cases to the same point on the peak oxygen pulse/work rate plot. The 21 patients had increased minute ventilation (VE) for given increases in CO2 production (VE/VCO2 slope), but perceived dyspnea was no greater than in the 12 control subjects or in the same patients before compared to after embolization comparison. Overall, work rate and peak VO2 were associated not with oxygenation parameters but with VE/VCO2 slope, BMI, and anaerobic threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with hypoxemia and PAVMs can maintain normal oxygen delivery/VO2 during peak exercise. Following improvement of SaO2 by embolization, patients appeared to reset compensatory mechanisms and, as a result, achieved similar peak VO2 per heart beat and peak work rates.