Lessons on food security from the COVID-19 pandemic in Bermuda.

Compared with other OECD countries, Bermuda ranks third globally in terms of income inequality globally. During the COVID-19 pandemic, anecdotal evidence suggested, significant fluctuations in the food demand and supply. We aimed to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity, with a focus on the availability and affordability of various foods in Bermuda. We utilized a cross-sectional study design to investigate potential drivers of food insecurity within the local population. To gauge the level of household food insecurity we relied on the Bermuda Omnibus survey (N = 400) undertaken by Total Research Associates Ltd via telephone. To assess changes in food availability and affordability we conducted semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders who played pivotal roles in shaping food accessibility availability and affordability of food in Bermuda. These interviews were systematically analysed using the framework method. We performed analyses of food retail and import data to evaluate fluctuations in food prices and their impact on food availability and affordability. We found statistically significant associations between changes in food consumption, household income, and government aid. Food aid beneficiaries ate fewer fruits and vegetables by 50% [95% CI:17%-83%] and less fresh meat and fish by 39% [95 CI:3%-75%] compared with residents who did not receive any aid during the COVID-19 period from March 2020 to March 2021. Although we did not identify statistically significant food price increases feeding programmes played a pivotal role in preventing food insecurity during the pandemic in Bermuda. However, a lack of monitoring regarding the nutritional quality within the programmes, allowed a wide availability of foods high in sugar, salts, and fats, disproportionately affected low-income populations. In conclusion, food availability in Bermuda remained largely unaffected during the pandemic. Nevertheless, the surge in demand for feeding programs underscores underlying food security challenges in Bermuda and warrants further attention.

The contribution to policies of an exposome-based approach to childhood obesity.

Childhood obesity is an increasingly severe public health problem, with a prospective impact on health. We propose an exposome approach to identify actionable risk factors for this condition. Our assumption is that relationships between external exposures and outcomes such as rapid growth, overweight, or obesity in children can be better understood through a "meet-in-the-middle" model. This is based on a combination of external and internal exposome-based approaches, that is, the study of multiple exposures (in our case, dietary patterns) and molecular pathways (metabolomics and epigenetics). This may strengthen causal reasoning by identifying intermediate markers that are associated with both exposures and outcomes. Our biomarker-based studies in the STOP consortium suggest (in several ways, including mediation analysis) that branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) could be mediators of the effect of dietary risk factors on childhood overweight/obesity. This is consistent with intervention and animal studies showing that higher intake of BCAAs has a positive impact on body composition, glycemia, and satiety. Concerning food, of particular concern is the trend of increasing intake of ultra-processed food (UPF), including among children. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the impact of UPF on obesity and overweight, including nutrient intake (particularly proteins), changes in appetite, or the role of additives. Research from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort has shown a relationship between UPF intake and trajectories in childhood adiposity, while UPF was related to lower blood levels of BCAAs. We suggest that an exposome-based approach can help strengthening causal reasoning and support policies. Intake of UPF in children should be restricted to prevent obesity.

Effective policies to promote sugar reduction in soft drinks: lessons from a comparison of six European countries.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have sought to incentivise soft drinks manufacturers to reduce sugar in their products as part of efforts to address a growing prevalence of obesity. Are their policies effective? METHODS: Using a difference-in-differences design, we compared trends in the sugar content of 10 695 new sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) launched between 2010 and 2019 in six European markets, including the UK and France (taxes designed to incentivise reformulation), the Netherlands (policy based on voluntary agreements to reduce sugar), Germany, Italy and Spain (no national policies). RESULTS: The announcement in 2016 and adoption in 2018 of the UK tax led to yearly reductions in average sugar content of 17% (95% CI: 15-19%) to 31% (13-48%) between 2016 and 2019, compared to 2015, while the 2018 French tax produced a 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) sugar reduction only in 2018, compared to 2017, shortly after it was redesigned to provide a stronger incentive for reformulation. Voluntary agreements implemented in the Netherlands in 2014 led to an 8% (95% CI: 4-13%) sugar reduction only in 2015, compared to 2013. CONCLUSION: The analysis supports the conclusions that sugar reductions in new SSBs have been greater in countries that have adopted specific policies to encourage them; a sugar-based tax design encourages more sugar reductions than a volume-based tax design; the tax rate and the amount of the tax reduction from switching to the next lower tier in a sugar-based tax design may be critical to incentivize reformulation.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Association of socioeconomic position and childhood obesity in Finland: a registry-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify what dimensions of socioeconomic position (SEP) are most closely associated with childhood obesity in Finland, leveraging population-wide data among the whole child population aged 2-17 years in Finland. DESIGN: Registry-based study. SETTING: Data from several administrative registries linked on individual level covering the whole of Finland were used. Data on height and weight measurements in 2018 were obtained from the Register of Primary Health Care visits and data on sociodemographic and socioeconomic indicators (2014-2018) from Statistics Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 2-17 years with valid height and weight measurements performed at the child health clinic or school healthcare in 2018 (final n=194 423). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obesity was defined according to WHO Growth Reference curves. Sociodemographic and socioeconomic indicators were linked on individual level for adults (both parents) who lived in the same household (42 predictors). Boosted regression model was used to analyse the contribution of SEP to obesity. RESULTS: From socioeconomic indicators, annual household income (12.6%) and mother and father's educational level (12.6% and 8.1%, respectively) had the highest relative influence on obesity risk. The relative influence of a child's sex was 7.7%. CONCLUSIONS: The parents' SEP was inversely associated with obesity among the offspring. A remarkable number of objective SEP indicators were analysed with parents' education and household income finally being the indicators most strongly associated with obesity among children. In future research, more attention should be paid to reliable and objective ways of measuring educational status and income rather than on developing new SEP indicators. Administrative registries with information on both healthcare and socioeconomic indicators can in future provide better opportunities to assess the influence of SEP on various health risks.

Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies.

BACKGROUND: The promotion of healthy lifestyles has high priority on the global public health agenda. Evidence on the real-world (cost-)effectiveness of policies addressing nutrition and physical activity is needed. To estimate short-term policy impacts, quasi-experimental methods using observational data are useful, while simulation models can estimate long-term impacts. We review the methods, challenges and potential synergies of both approaches for the evaluation of nutrition and physical activity policies. METHODS: We performed an integrative review applying purposive literature sampling techniques to synthesize original articles, systematic reviews and lessons learned from public international workshops conducted within the European Union Policy Evaluation Network. RESULTS: We highlight data requirements for policy evaluations, discuss the distinct assumptions of instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and regression discontinuity designs and describe the necessary robustness and falsification analyses to test them. Further, we summarize the specific assumptions of comparative risk assessment and Markov state-transition simulation models, including their extension to microsimulation. We describe the advantages and limitations of these modelling approaches and discuss future directions, such as the adequate consideration of heterogeneous policy responses. Finally, we highlight how quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods can be integrated into an evidence cycle for policy evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Assumptions of quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods in policy evaluations should be credible, rigorously tested and transparently communicated. Both approaches can be applied synergistically within a coherent framework to compare policy implementation scenarios and improve the estimation of nutrition and physical activity policy impacts, including their distribution across population sub-groups.

Policy implementation and priorities to create healthy food environments using the Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI): A pooled level analysis across eleven European countries.

Background: Food environments have been recognised as highly influential on population diets. Government policies have great potential to create healthy food environments to promote healthy diets. This study aimed to evaluate food environment policy implementation in European countries and identify priority actions for governments to create healthy food environments. Methods: The Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) was used to evaluate the level of food environment policy and infrastructure support implementation in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain in 2019-2021. Evidence of implementation of food environment policies was compiled in each country and validated by government officials. National experts evaluated the implementation of policies and identified priority recommendations. Findings: Finland had the highest proportion (32%, n = 7/22) of policies shaping food environments with a "high" level of implementation. Slovenia and Poland had the highest proportion of policies rated at very low implementation (42%, n = 10/24 and 36%, n = 9/25 respectively). Policies regarding food provision, promotion, retail, funding, monitoring, and health in all policies were identified as the most important gaps across the European countries. Experts recommended immediate action on setting standards for nutrients of concern in processed foods, improvement of school food environments, fruit and vegetable subsidies, unhealthy food and beverage taxation, and restrictions on unhealthy food marketing to children. Interpretation: Immediate implementation of policies and infrastructure support that prioritize action towards healthy food environments is urgently required to tackle the burden of obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases in Europe. Funding: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 774548 and from the Joint Programming Initiative "A Healthy Diet for a Healthy Life".

Metabolic profiles of ultra-processed food consumption and their role in obesity risk in British children.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Higher consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) has been associated with childhood obesity, but underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated plasma nuclear magnetic resonance metabolic profiles of higher UPF consumption and their role in obesity risk in the British ALSPAC cohort. METHODS: We performed cross-sectional and prospective metabolome wide association analyses of UPF, calculated from food diaries using the NOVA classification. In cross-sectional analysis, we tested the association between UPF consumption and metabolic profile at 7 years (N = 4528), and in the prospective analysis we tested the association between UPF consumption at 13 years and metabolic profile at 17 years (N = 3086). Effects of UPF-associated metabolites at 7 years on subsequent fat mass accumulation were assessed using growth curve models. RESULTS: At 7 years, UPF was associated with 115 metabolic traits including lower levels of branched-chain and aromatic amino acids and higher levels of citrate, glutamine, and monounsaturated fatty acids, which were also associated with greater fat mass accumulation. Reported intake of nutrients mediated associations with most metabolites, except for citrate. CONCLUSIONS: UPF consumption among British children is associated with perturbation of multiple metabolic traits, many of which contribute to child obesity risk.

Molecular mediators of the association between child obesity and mental health.

Biological mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and depression remain unclear. We investigated the role of metabolites and DNA methylation as mediators of the relationship between childhood obesity and subsequent poor mental health in the English Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Obesity was defined according to United Kingdom Growth charts at age 7 years and mental health through the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (SMFQ) completed at age 11 years. Metabolites and DNA methylation were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and Illumina array in blood at the age of 7 years. The associations between obesity and SMFQ score, as continuous count data or using cut-offs to define depressive symptoms (SMFQ >7) or depression (SMFQ >11), were tested using adjusted Poisson and logistic regression. Candidate metabolite mediators were identified through metabolome-wide association scans for obesity and SMFQ score, correcting for false-discovery rate. Candidate DNA methylation mediators were identified through testing the association of putative BMI-associated CpG sites with SMFQ scores, correcting for look-up false-discovery rate. Mediation by candidate molecular markers was tested. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were additionally applied to test causal associations of metabolites with depression in independent adult samples. 4,018 and 768 children were included for metabolomics and epigenetics analyses, respectively. Obesity at 7 years was associated with a 14% increase in SMFQ score (95% CI: 1.04, 1.25) and greater odds of depression (OR: 1.46 (95% CI: 0.78, 2.38) at 11 years. Natural indirect effects (mediating pathways) between obesity and depression for tyrosine, leucine and conjugated linoleic acid were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.13, proportion mediated (PM): 15%), 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.10, PM: 9.6%) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.12, PM: 13.9%) respectively. In MR analysis, one unit increase in tyrosine was associated with 0.13 higher log odds of depression (p = 0.1). Methylation at cg17128312, located in the FBXW9 gene, had a natural indirect effect of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01,1.13, PM: 27%) as a mediator of obesity and SMFQ score. Potential biologically plausible mechanisms involving these identified molecular features include neurotransmitter regulation, inflammation, and gut microbiome modulation. These results require replication in further observational and mechanistic studies.

The 'sugar tax' in Bermuda: a mixed methods study of general population and key stakeholder perceptions.

BACKGROUND: Taxes on discretionary foods and sugar-sweetened beverages have emerged as a strategy for health promotion. Between 2018-2019, the Bermuda government introduced a phased tax on imported sugar-sweetened beverages, confectionery, products containing cocoa and pure sugar, and eliminated import duties on select healthy food items. The aim of this study was to conduct an mixed methods evaluation of perceptions of the tax among the general population and key stakeholders. METHODS: We conducted a survey of the general population (N = 400), and semi-structured interviews with key informants (N = 14) from the government, food and beverage, and health sectors to understand awareness, acceptability, and perceived impact of the tax after implementation. Survey data was analysed using thematic analysis, summary statistics, and Chi-squared tests. Key informant interviews were analysed using the framework method. RESULTS: General population respondents had high awareness of the sugar tax (94%) but low awareness of the healthy food subsidy (32%). Most respondents (67%) felt the tax was not an appropriate way to motivate healthier consumption due to beliefs the tax would not be effective (44%), and because of the high price of healthy food (20%). However, nearly half (48%) reported consuming fewer taxed products, primarily for health reasons but also motivated by price increases. Key informants indicated there was high awareness but limited understanding of the tax policy. Informants expressed support for taxation as a health promotion strategy, conditional on policy implementation. The lack of clear price differentiation between taxed and un-taxed products and the absence of accompanying health education were key factors believed to affect the impact of the tax. No informants were aware of use of tax revenues for health purposes and tax revenue was reportedly re-directed to other priorities after implementation. CONCLUSIONS: There was high awareness, but limited acceptability of the Bermuda sugar tax as implemented. Clarity in the tax policy, appropriateness of the tax mechanism, and use of revenue in alignment with the tax aim are critical components for acceptance. The absence of complementary education and health promotion affected acceptance and may limit potential health impacts. The lessons learned in Bermuda can inform similar policies in other settings.

The benefits and challenges of taxing sugar in a small island state: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Beverage and food taxes have become a popular 'best buy' public health intervention in the global battle to tackle noncommunicable diseases. Though many countries have introduced taxes, mainly targeting products containing sugar, there is great heterogeneity in tax design. For taxes levied as import tariffs, there is limited evidence of effectiveness in changing the price and sale of taxed products, while the evidence base is stronger for excise taxes levied as a fixed amount per quantity of product. This paper examines the effect of the Bermuda Discretionary Foods Tax, which was based on import tariff changes, on retail prices and sales of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and on selected fruits and vegetables that benefited from a tariff reduction. METHODS: We used weekly electronic point-of-sale data from a major food retailer in Bermuda. We assessed historical weekly sales and price data using an interrupted time series design on 2,703 unique products between the dates of January 2018 through January 2020, covering 103 weeks. RESULTS: By January 2020, the average price per ounce of SSBs increased by 26.0%, while the price of untaxed beverages (including waters and non-added sugar drinks) remained constant. The increasing price of SSBs was the sole observable structural driver of SSB market share, responsible for a decrease in the market share by nearly eight percentage points by the end of the study period. The subsidy on fruits and vegetables was ineffective in changing prices and sales, due to the relatively small 5% import tax decrease. CONCLUSIONS: The tax was largely passed through to consumers. However, several factors mitigated the impact of the tax on the prices paid for SSBs by consumers, including the specific design of the tax, price promotions and consumer responses. The experience of Bermuda provides important lessons for the planning of similar taxes in the future.

Urban environment and health behaviours in children from six European countries.

BACKGROUND: Urban environmental design is increasingly considered influential for health and wellbeing, but evidence is mostly based on adults and single exposure studies. We evaluated the association between a wide range of urban environment characteristics and health behaviours in childhood. METHODS: We estimated exposure to 32 urban environment characteristics (related to the built environment, traffic, and natural spaces) for home and school addresses of 1,581 children aged 6-11 years from six European cohorts. We collected information on health behaviours including total amount of overall moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, physical activity outside school hours, active transport, sedentary behaviours and sleep duration, and developed patterns of behaviours with principal component analysis. We used an exposure-wide association study to screen all exposure-outcome associations, and the deletion-substitution-addition algorithm to build a final multi-exposure model. RESULTS: In multi-exposure models, green spaces (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) were positively associated with active transport, and inversely associated with sedentary time (22.71 min/day less (95 %CI -39.90, -5.51) per interquartile range increase in NDVI). Residence in densely built areas was associated with more physical activity and less sedentary time, and densely populated areas with less physical activity outside school hours and more sedentary time. Presence of a major road was associated with lower sleep duration (-4.80 min/day (95 %CI -9.11, -0.48); compared with no major road). Results for the behavioural patterns were similar. CONCLUSIONS: This multicohort study suggests that areas with more vegetation, more building density, less population density and without major roads are associated with improved health behaviours in childhood.

Impact of introducing a minimum alcohol tax share in retail prices on alcohol-attributable mortality in the WHO European Region: A modelling study.

Background: Alcohol use and its burden constitute one of the largest public health challenges in the WHO European Region. Raising alcohol taxes is a cost-effective "best buy" measure to reduce alcohol consumption, but its implementation remains uneven. This paper provides an overview of existing tax structures in 50 countries and subregions of the Region, estimates their proportions of tax on retail prices of beer, wine, and spirits, and quantifies the number of deaths that could be averted annually if these tax shares were raised to a minimum level. Methods: Review of databases and statistical reports on taxes and mean retail prices of alcohol beverages in the Region. Affordability was calculated based on alcohol prices, adjusted for differences in purchasing power. Consumption changes and averted mortality were modelled assuming two scenarios. In Scenario 1, a minimum excise tax share level of 25% of the beverage-specific retail price was assumed for all countries. In Scenario 2, in addition to a minimum excise tax share level of 15% it was assumed that per unit of ethanol minimal retail prices were the same irrespective of alcoholic beverages (equalisation). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for different price elasticities. Findings: Alcohol is very affordable in the Region and alcohol taxes have clearly been under-utilized as a public health measure, constituting on average only 5·7%, 14·0% and 31·3% of the retail prices of wine, beer, and spirits, respectively. Tax shares were higher in the eastern part of the Region compared to the EU, where various countries did not have excise taxes on wine. Annually, the introduction of a minimum tax share of 25% (Scenario 1) could avert 40,033 (95% CI: 38,054-46,097) deaths in the WHO European Region (with 753,454,300 inhabitants older than 15 years of age). If a 15% tax share with equalisation were implemented (Scenario 2), 132,906 (95% CI: (124,691-151,674) deaths could be averted. All sensitivity analyses with different elasticities yielded outcomes close to those of the main analyses. Interpretation: Similar to tobacco taxes, increasing alcohol taxes should be considered to be a health-based measure aimed at saving lives. Many countries have hesitated to apply higher taxes to alcohol, but the present results show a clear health benefit as a result of implementing a minimum tax share. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (1R01AA028224) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Institute of Neurosciences, and Mental Health and Addiction (SMN-13950).

Cord blood metabolites and rapid postnatal growth as multiple mediators in the prenatal propensity to childhood overweight.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying childhood overweight and obesity are poorly known. Here, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of different prenatal exposures on offspring rapid postnatal growth and overweight in childhood, mediated through cord blood metabolites. Additionally, rapid postnatal growth was considered a potential mediator on childhood overweight, alone and sequentially to each metabolite. METHODS: Within four European birth-cohorts (N = 375 mother-child dyads), information on seven prenatal exposures (maternal education, pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain and tobacco smoke during pregnancy, age at delivery, parity, and child gestational age), selected as obesogenic according to a-priori knowledge, was collected. Cord blood levels of 31 metabolites, associated with rapid postnatal growth and/or childhood overweight in a previous study, were measured via liquid-chromatography-quadrupole-time-of-flight-mass-spectrometry. Rapid growth at 12 months and childhood overweight (including obesity) between four and eight years were defined with reference to WHO growth charts. Single mediation analysis was performed using the imputation approach and multiple mediation analysis using the extended-imputation approach. RESULTS: Single mediation suggested that the effect of maternal education, pregnancy weight gain, parity, and gestational age on rapid postnatal growth but not on childhood overweight was partly mediated by seven metabolites, including cholestenone, decenoylcarnitine(C10:1), phosphatidylcholine(C34:3), progesterone and three unidentified metabolites; and the effect of gestational age on childhood overweight was mainly mediated by rapid postnatal growth. Multiple mediation suggested that the effect of gestational age on childhood overweight was mainly mediated by rapid postnatal growth and that the mediating role of the metabolites was marginal. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence of the involvement of in utero metabolism in the propensity to rapid postnatal growth and of rapid postnatal growth in the propensity to childhood overweight. We did not find evidence supporting a mediating role of the studied metabolites alone between the studied prenatal exposures and the propensity to childhood overweight.

Food environment and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: A geospatial analysis of health outcome data.

BACKGROUND: The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) renders its prevention a major public health priority. A key risk factor of diabetes is obesity and poor diets. Food environments have been found to influence people's diets and obesity, positing they may play a role in the prevalence of diabetes. Yet, there is scant evidence on the role they may play in the context of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined the associations of food environments on T2DM among adults and its heterogeneity by income and sex. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We linked individual health outcome data of 12,167 individuals from a network of health surveillance sites (the South Asia Biobank) to the density and proximity of food outlets geolocated around their homes from environment mapping survey data collected between 2018 and 2020 in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Density was defined as share of food outlets within 300 m from study participant's home, and proximity was defined as having at least 1 outlet within 100 m from home. The outcome variables include fasting blood glucose level, high blood glucose, and self-reported diagnosed diabetes. Control variables included demographics, socioeconomic status (SES), health status, healthcare utilization, and physical activities. Data were analyzed in ArcMap 10.3 and STATA 15.1. A higher share of fast-food restaurants (FFR) was associated with a 9.21 mg/dl blood glucose increase (95% CI: 0.17, 18.24; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR in the proximity was associated with 2.14 mg/dl blood glucose increase (CI: 0.55, 3.72; p < 0.01). A 1% increase in the share of FFR near an individual's home was associated with 8% increase in the probability of being clinically diagnosed as a diabetic (average marginal effects (AMEs): 0.08; CI: 0.02, 0.14; p < 0.05). Having at least 1 FFR near home was associated with 16% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.16; CI: 1.01, 1.33; p < 0.05) and 19% (OR: 1.19; CI: 1.03, 1.38; p < 0.05) increases in the odds of higher blood glucose levels and diagnosed diabetes, respectively. The positive association between FFR density and blood glucose level was stronger among women than men, but the association between FFR proximity and blood glucose level was stronger among men as well as among those with higher incomes. One of the study's key limitations is that we measured exposure to food environments around residency geolocation; however, participants may source their meals elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the exposure to fast-food outlets may have a detrimental impact on the risk of T2DM, especially among females and higher-income earners. Policies should target changes in the food environments to promote better diets and prevent T2DM.

Food environments and obesity: A geospatial analysis of the South Asia Biobank, income and sex inequalities.

INTRODUCTION: In low-middle income countries (LMICs) the role of food environments on obesity has been understudied. We address this gap by 1) examining the effect of food environments on adults' body size (BMI, waist circumference) and obesity; 2) measuring the heterogeneity of such effects by income and sex. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analysed South Asia Biobank surveillance and environment mapping data for 12,167 adults collected between 2018 and 2020 from 33 surveillance sites in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Individual-level data (demographic, socio-economic, and health characteristics) were combined with exposure to healthy and unhealthy food environments measured with geolocations of food outlets (obtained through ground-truth surveys) within 300 m buffer zones around participants' homes. Multivariate regression models were used to assess association of exposure to healthy and unhealthy food environments on waist circumference, BMI, and probability of obesity for the total sample and stratified by sex and income. FINDINGS: The presence of a higher share of supermarkets in the neighbourhood was associated with a reduction in body size (BMI, ß = - 3∙23; p < 0∙0001, and waist circumference, ß = -5∙99; p = 0∙0212) and obesity (Average Marginal Effect (AME): -0∙18; p = 0∙0009). High share of fast-food restaurants in the neighbourhood was not significantly associated with body size, but it significantly increased the probability of obesity measured by BMI (AME: 0∙09; p = 0∙0234) and waist circumference (AME: 0∙21; p = 0∙0021). These effects were stronger among females and low-income individuals. INTERPRETATION: The results suggest the availability of fast-food outlets influences obesity, especially among female and lower-income groups. The availability of supermarkets is associated with reduced body size and obesity, but their effects do not outweigh the role of fast-food outlets. Policies should target food environments to promote better diets and reduce obesity.

The impact of the consumer and neighbourhood food environment on dietary intake and obesity-related outcomes: A systematic review of causal impact studies.

BACKGROUND: The food environment has been found to impact population dietary behaviour. Our study aimed to systematically review the impact of different elements of the food environment on dietary intake and obesity. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsychInfo, EconLit databases to identify literature that assessed the relationship between the built food environments (intervention) and dietary intake and obesity (outcomes), published between database inception to March 26, 2020. All human studies were eligible except for those on clinical sub-groups. Only studies with causal inference methods were assessed. Studies focusing on the food environment inside homes, workplaces and schools were excluded. A risk of bias assessment was conducted using the CASP appraisal checklist. Findings were summarized using a narrative synthesis approach. FINDINGS: 58 papers were included, 55 of which were conducted in high-income countries. 70% of papers focused on the consumer food environments and found that in-kind/financial incentives, healthy food saliency, and health primes, but not calorie menu labelling significantly improved dietary quality of children and adults, while BMI results were null. 30% of the papers focused on the neighbourhood food environments and found that the number of and distance to unhealthy food outlets increased the likelihood of fast-food consumption and higher BMI for children of any SES; among adults only selected groups were impacted - females, black, and Hispanics living in low and medium density areas. The availability and distance to healthy food outlets significantly improved children's dietary intake and BMI but null results were found for adults. INTERPRETATION: Evidence suggests certain elements of the consumer and neighbourhood food environments could improve populations dietary intake, while effect on BMI was observed among children and selected adult populations. Underprivileged groups are most likely to experience and impact on BMI. Future research should investigate whether findings translate in other countries.

Implementation level of best practice policies by Italian Government for healthier food environments: Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI).

BACKGROUND: This work aims to identify policies implemented for healthy food environments in Italy within The Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) project. METHODS: Food-EPI tool, which includes two components, thirteen domains and fifty good practice indicators, was adapted for the Italian context. Evidence for implementation was gathered and summarized for all fifty indicators from data sources such as governmental websites, non-government organizations publications and websites and via direct contact with Government officials. RESULTS: The highest level of evidence was found within five domains: food composition (2/2 indicators), labelling (3/4), promotion (4/5), provision (4/5) and leadership (5/5). The domains with less identified evidence were food prices (1/4), food in retail (0/4), trade and investment (0/2) and platforms and interaction (1/4). CONCLUSIONS: The evidence summarization and the upcoming stakeholders' meeting to rate the level of implementation for each indicator in Italy have the potential to improve Government commitment to shape healthier food environments.

Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Decision-makers for public policy are increasingly utilising systems approaches such as system dynamics (SD) modelling, which test alternative interventions or policies for their potential impact while accounting for complexity. These approaches, however, have not consistently included an economic efficiency analysis dimension. This systematic review aims to examine how, and in what ways, system dynamics modelling approaches incorporate economic efficiency analyses to inform decision-making on innovations (improvements in products, services, or processes) in the public sector, with a particular interest in health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Relevant studies (n = 29) were identified through a systematic search and screening of four electronic databases and backward citation search, and analysed for key characteristics and themes related to the analytical methods applied. Economic efficiency analysis approaches within SD broadly fell into two categories: as embedded sub-models or as cost calculations based on the outputs of the SD model. Embdedded sub-models within a dynamic SD framework can reveal a clear allocation of costs and benefits to periods of time, whereas cost calculations based on the SD model outputs can be useful for high-level resource allocation decisions. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review reveals that SD modelling is not currently used to its full potential to evaluate the technical or allocative efficiency of public sector innovations, particularly in health. The limited reporting on the experience or methodological challenges of applying allocated efficiency analyses with SD, particularly with dynamic embedded models, hampers common learning lessons to draw from and build on. Further application and comprehensive reporting of this approach would be welcome to develop the methodology further.