The kidney failure risk equation predicts kidney failure: Validation in an Australian cohort.

AIMS: Predicting progression to kidney failure for patients with chronic kidney disease is essential for patient and clinicians' management decisions, patient prognosis, and service planning. The Tangri et al Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) was developed to predict the outcome of kidney failure. The KFRE has not been independently validated in an Australian Cohort. METHODS: Using data linkage of the Tasmanian Chronic Kidney Disease study (CKD.TASlink) and the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA), we externally validated the KFRE. We validated the 4, 6, and 8-variable KFRE at both 2 and 5 years. We assessed model fit (goodness of fit), discrimination (Harell's C statistic), and calibration (observed vs predicted survival). RESULTS: There were 18 170 in the cohort with 12 861 participants with 2 years and 8182 with 5 years outcomes. Of these 2607 people died and 285 progressed to kidney replacement therapy. The KFRE has excellent discrimination with C statistics of 0.96-0.98 at 2 years and 0.95-0.96 at 5 years. The calibration was adequate with well-performing Brier scores (0.004-0.01 at 2 years, 0.01-0.03 at 5 years) however the calibration curves, whilst adequate, indicate that predicted outcomes are systematically worse than observed. CONCLUSION: This external validation study demonstrates the KFRE performs well in an Australian population and can be used by clinicians and service planners for individualised risk prediction.

Competing risks of death and kidney failure in a cohort of Australian adults with severe chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the competing risks of death (any cause) and of kidney failure in a cohort of Australian adults with severe chronic kidney disease. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study; analysis of linked data from the Tasmanian Chronic Kidney Disease study (CKD.TASlink), 1 January 2004 - 31 December 2017. PARTICIPANTS: All adults in Tasmania with incident stage 4 chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m2 ). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death or kidney failure (defined as eGFR below 10 mL/min/1.73 m2 or initiation of dialysis or kidney transplantation) within five years of diagnosis of stage 4 chronic kidney disease. RESULTS: We included data for 6825 adults with incident stage 4 chronic kidney disease (mean age, 79.3 years; SD, 11.1 years), including 3816 women (55.9%). The risk of death increased with age - under 65 years: 0.18 (95% CI, 0.15-0.22); 65-74 years: 0.39 (95% CI, 0.36-0.42); 75-84 years, 0.56 (95% CI, 0.54-0.58); 85 years or older: 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.80) - while that of kidney failure declined - under 65 years: 0.39 (95% CI, 0.35-0.43); 65-74 years: 0.12 (95% CI, 0.10-0.14); 75-84 years: 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.06); 85 years or older: 0.01 (95% CI, 0.01-0.02). The risk of kidney failure was greater for people with macroalbuminuria and those whose albumin status had not recently been assessed. The risks of kidney failure and death were greater for men than women in all age groups (except similar risks of death for men and women under 65 years of age). CONCLUSIONS: For older Australians with incident stage 4 chronic kidney disease, the risk of death is higher than that of kidney failure, and the latter risk declines with age. Clinical guidelines should recognise these competing risks and include recommendations about holistic supportive care, not just on preparation for dialysis or transplantation.

Island medicine: using data linkage to establish the kidney health of the population of Tasmania, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To report (using linked laboratory data) the incidence, prevalence and geographic variation of chronic kidney disease (CKD) across the whole island population of Tasmania, Australia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study (the Tasmanian Chronic Kidney Disease study (CKD.TASlink)) using linked data from five health and two pathology datasets from the island state of Tasmania, Australia between 1/1/2004 and 31/12/2017. We used data on 460,737 Tasmanian adults (aged 18 years and older, representing 86.8% of the state's population) who had a serum creatinine measured during the study period. We defined CKD as per Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative, requiring two measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73m2, at least three months apart. Kidney replacement therapy (KRT) included dialysis or kidney transplantation. RESULTS: We identified 56,438 Tasmanians with CKD during the study period, equating to an age-standardised annual incidence of 1.0% and a prevalence of 6.5%. These figures were higher in women, older Tasmanians and people living in the North-West region of Tasmania. Testing for urinary albumin:creatinine ratio is increasing, with 28.5% of women and 30.8% of men with stage 3 CKD having both an eGFR and uACR in 2017. Use of KRT was consistently seen in >65% of Tasmanians with eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73m2. CONCLUSION: There is geographic and gender variation in the incidence and prevalence of CKD, but it is reassuring to see that the majority of people with end-stage kidney failure are actually receiving treatment with dialysis or transplantation.

Targeted chemoradiation in metastatic colorectal cancer: a phase I trial of 131I-huA33 with concurrent capecitabine.

UNLABELLED: huA33 is a humanized antibody that targets the A33 antigen, which is highly expressed in intestinal epithelium and more than 95% of human colon cancers but not other normal tissues. Previous studies have shown huA33 can target and be retained in a metastatic tumor for 6 wk but eliminated from normal colonocytes within days. This phase I study used radiolabeled huA33 in combination with capecitabine to target chemoradiation to metastatic colorectal cancer. The primary objective was safety and tolerability of the combination of capecitabine and (131)I-huA33. Pharmacokinetics, biodistribution, immunogenicity, and tumor response were also assessed. METHODS: Eligibility included measurable metastatic colorectal cancer, adequate hematologic and biochemical function, and informed consent. An outpatient scout (131)I-huA33 dose was followed by a single-therapy infusion 1 wk later, when capecitabine was commenced. Dose escalation occurred over 5 dose levels. Patients were evaluated weekly, with tumor response assessment at the end of the 12-wk trial. Tumor targeting was assessed using a γ camera and SPECT imaging. RESULTS: Nineteen eligible patients were enrolled. The most frequently observed toxicity included myelosuppression, gastrointestinal symptoms, and asymptomatic hyperbilirubinemia. Biodistribution analysis demonstrated excellent tumor targeting of the known tumor sites, expected transient bowel uptake, but no other normal tissue uptake. (131)I-huA33 demonstrated a mean terminal half-life and serum clearance suited to radioimmunotherapy (T1/2ß, 100.24 ± 20.92 h, and clearance, 36.72 ± 8.01 mL/h). The mean total tumor dose was 13.8 ± 7.6 Gy (range, 5.1-26.9 Gy). One patient had a partial response, and 10 patients had stable disease. CONCLUSION: (131)I-huA33 achieves specific targeting of radiotherapy to colorectal cancer metastases and can be safely combined with chemotherapy, providing an opportunity to deliver chemoradiation specifically to metastatic disease in colorectal cancer patients.

Subacute ischemic stroke is associated with focal 11C PiB positron emission tomography retention but not with global neocortical Aß deposition.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Conflicting evidence exists as to whether focal cerebral ischemia contributes to cerebral amyloid deposition. We aimed to look at Aß deposits, detected by N-methyl-2-(4'-methylaminophenyl)-6-hydroxybenzothiazole (PiB) positron emission tomography, in patients with recent ischemic stroke. Specifically, we hypothesized that patients with recent ischemic stroke have higher local and neocortical PiB positron emission tomography retention and that this may be associated with major vascular risk factors. METHODS: Ischemic stroke patients were studied using PiB positron emission tomography within 30 days and compared to age-matched controls. Distribution volume ratio maps were created using Logan graphical analysis with the cerebellar cortex as a reference. RESULTS: Among the 21 ischemic stroke patients (median age, 76 years; interquartile range, 68-77), the ipsilateral peri-infarct region PiB retention was higher compared to the contralateral mirror region, with a PiB distribution volume ratio difference of 0.29 (95% CI, 0.2-0.44; P=0.001) at median 10 (interquartile range, 7-14) days after stroke. Two patients also had higher PiB retention within the infarct compared to the contralateral side. There was no difference in the neocortical PiB retention elsewhere in the brain among ischemic stroke patients compared with 22 age-matched normal controls (P=0.22). Among the risk factors in the ischemic stroke patients, diabetes was associated with a higher neocortical PiB retention (Spearman Rho=0.48; 95% CI, 0.28-0.72). CONCLUSIONS: PiB retention was higher in the peri-infarct region among patients with recent ischemic stroke. This did not translate into a higher global neocortical PiB retention except possibly in patients with diabetes. The cause of the focal PiB retention is uncertain and requires further investigation.

Cerebral ß-amyloid detected by Pittsburgh compound B positron emission topography predisposes to recombinant tissue plasminogen activator-related hemorrhage.

Cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) may be an important predisposing factor for the hemorrhagic complications of recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rt-PA) therapy. We studied patients treated within 3 hours of onset of ischemic stroke with rt-PA using positron emission tomography to compare Pittsburgh compound B (PiB) (a cerebral ß-amyloid ligand) retention in those with and without parenchymal hemorrhage (PH) and normal controls. Neocortical PiB retention was higher among patients with PH compared with patients without PH and normal controls, suggesting underlying CAA as a predisposing factor for rt-PA-related hemorrhage. This finding may provide an impetus for the development of a more practical rapid pretreatment screening technique.

Evaluation of geometrical sensitivity for respiratory motion gating by GATE and NCAT simulation.

Respiratory motion artifacts can be a significant factor that limits the PET image quality. To improve image quality, surveillance systems have been developed to track the movements of the subject during scanning. Gating techniques utilizing the tracking information, are able to compensate for subject motion, thereby improving lesion detection. In this paper, we present a gating method that utilizes the geometric sensitivity gating (GSG) of a 3D-PET scanner system operating in list event acquisition mode. GSG method has several advantages over the existing methods, it only uses LOR events and is non-invasive, no additional hardware device is required and there is no additional patient preparation required. Using GATE (GEANT4 Application Tomographic Emission) and NCAT (NURBs(Non Uniform Rational B-Splines) Cardiac Torso) software packages with an Allegro PET configuration, realistic simulations of respiratory motion demonstrate that GSG can be used for respiratory gating.

Visual assessment versus quantitative assessment of 11C-PIB PET and 18F-FDG PET for detection of Alzheimer's disease.

UNLABELLED: Amyloid-beta (Abeta) imaging with N-methyl-(11)C-2-(4'-methylamino-phenyl)-6-hydroxy-benzothiazole ((11)C-6-OH-BTA-1; also known as (11)C-PIB) shows a robust increase in cortical binding in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The aim of this study was to explore the clinical potential of Abeta imaging for the diagnosis of AD by comparison of the accuracy of visual reading of (11)C-PIB images with quantitative analysis and (18)F-FDG. METHODS: Fifteen AD patients (age, 71.1 +/- 11.3 y [mean +/- SD]; mini-mental state examination [MMSE], 18.9 +/- 9.3 [mean +/- SD]) and 25 healthy control (HC) subjects (age, 71.9 +/- 6.82 y; MMSE >or= 28) underwent 90-min dynamic (11)C-PIB PET and 20-min static (18)F-FDG PET. (11)C-PIB images, generated from data acquired between 40 and 70 min after injection, and (18)F-FDG images were rated separately by 2 readers as normal, possible AD, or probable AD. Quantitative analyses used the distribution volume ratio (DVR) of frontal cortex, parietotemporal cortex, posterior cingulate, and caudate nucleus for (11)C-PIB and standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) of parietotemporal cortex and posterior cingulate for (18)F-FDG, using cerebellar cortex as the reference region. Receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of quantitative measures. To determine the effect of age on diagnostic accuracy, the median age of the AD subjects (74 y) was chosen to separate the cohort into younger (64.4 +/- 5.8 y) and older (78.6 +/- 4.1 y) groups. RESULTS: Visual agreement between readers was excellent for (11)C-PIB (kappa = 0.90) and good for (18)F-FDG (kappa = 0.56). (11)C-PIB was more accurate than (18)F-FDG both on visual reading (accuracy, 90% vs. 70%, P = 0.05) and ROC analysis (95% vs. 83%, P = 0.02). Accuracy declined more with (18)F-FDG than with (11)C-PIB in the older group. CONCLUSION: Visual analysis of (11)C-PIB images appears more accurate than visual reading of (18)F-FDG for identification of AD and has accuracy similar to quantitative analysis of a 90-min dynamic scan. The accuracy of (11)C-PIB PET is limited by cortical binding in some healthy elderly subjects, consistent with postmortem studies of cerebral Abeta. Longitudinal follow-up is required to determine if this represents detection of preclinical AD.

Simplified quantification of nicotinic receptors with 2[18F]F-A-85380 PET.

INTRODUCTION: Neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs), widely distributed in the human brain, are implicated in various neurophysiological processes as well as being particularly affected in neurodegenerative conditions such as Alzheimer's disease. We sought to evaluate a minimally invasive method for quantification of nAChR distribution in the normal human brain, suitable for routine clinical application, using 2[(18)F]F-A-85380 and positron emission tomography (PET). METHODS: Ten normal volunteers (four females and six males, aged 63.40+/-9.22 years) underwent a dynamic 120-min PET scan after injection of 226 MBq 2[(18)F]F-A-85380 along with arterial blood sampling. Regional binding was assessed through standardized uptake value (SUV) and distribution volumes (DV) obtained using both compartmental (DV(2CM)) and graphical analysis (DV(Logan)). A simplified approach to the estimation of DV (DV(simplified)), defined as the region-to-plasma ratio at apparent steady state (90-120 min post injection), was compared with the other quantification approaches. RESULTS: DV(Logan) values were higher than DV(2CM). A strong correlation was observed between DV(simplified), DV(Logan) (r=.94) and DV(2CM) (r=.90) in cortical regions, with lower correlations in thalamus (r=.71 and .82, respectively). Standardized uptake value showed low correlation against DV(Logan) and DV(2CM). CONCLUSION: DV(simplified) determined by the ratio of tissue to metabolite-corrected plasma using a single 90- to 120-min PET acquisition appears acceptable for quantification of cortical nAChR binding with 2[(18)F]F-A-85380 and suitable for clinical application.

Phase I trial of 131I-huA33 in patients with advanced colorectal carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Humanized monoclonal antibody A33 (huA33) targets the A33 antigen which is expressed on 95% of colorectal cancers. A previous study has shown excellent tumor-targeting of iodine-131 labeled huA33 (131I-huA33). Therefore, we did a phase I dose escalation trial of 131I-huA33 radioimmunotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS: Fifteen patients with pretreated metastatic colorectal carcinoma each received two i.v. doses of 131I-huA33. The first was an outpatient trace-labeled "scout" dose for biodistribution assessment, followed by a second "therapy" dose. Three patients were treated at 20, 30, and 40 mCi/m2 dose levels, and six patients at 50 mCi/m2 to define the maximum tolerated dose. RESULTS: Hematologic toxicity was 131I dose-dependent, with one episode of grade 4 neutropenia and two episodes of grade 3 thrombocytopenia observed at 50 mCi/m2. The maximum tolerated dose was determined to be 40 mCi/m2. There were no acute infusion-related adverse events, and gastrointestinal toxicity was not observed despite uptake of 131I-huA33 in bowel. Seven patients developed pruritus or rash, which was not related to 131I dose. There was excellent tumor-targeting of 131I-huA33 shown in all patients. The serum T1/2beta of 131I-huA33 was (mean +/- SD) 135.2 +/- 46.9 hours. The mean absorbed tumor dose was 6.49 +/- 2.47 Gy/GBq. Four patients developed human anti-human antibodies. At restaging, 4 patients had stable disease, whereas 11 patients had progressive disease. CONCLUSION: Radioimmunotherapy using 131I-huA33 shows promise in targeting colorectal tumors, and is deliverable at a maximum tolerated dose of 40 mCi/m2. Further studies of 131I-huA33 in combination with chemotherapy are planned.