The natural capital of seagrass beds in the Caribbean: evaluating their ecosystem services and blue carbon trade potential.

Seagrass beds provide tremendous services to society, including the storage of carbon, with important implications for climate change mitigation. Prioritizing conservation of this valuable natural capital is of global significance, and including seagrass beds in global carbon markets through projects that minimize loss, increase area or restore degraded areas represents a mechanism towards this end. Using newly available Caribbean seagrass distribution data, we estimated carbon storage in the region and calculated economic valuations of total ecosystem services and carbon storage. We estimated the 88 170 km2 of seagrass in the Caribbean stores 1337.8 (360.5-2335.0, minimum and maximum estimates, respectively) Tg carbon. The value of these seagrass ecosystems in terms of total ecosystem services and carbon alone was estimated to be $255 billion yr-1 and $88.3 billion, respectively, highlighting their potential monetary importance for the region. Our results show that Caribbean seagrass beds are globally substantial pools of carbon, and our findings underscore the importance of such evaluation schemes to promote urgently needed conservation of these highly threatened and globally important ecosystems.

Nature dependent tourism - Combining big data and local knowledge.

The ability to quantify nature's value for tourism has significant implications for natural resource management and sustainable development policy. This is especially true in the Eastern Caribbean, where many countries are embracing the concept of the Blue Economy. The utilization of user-generated content (UGC) to understand tourist activities and preferences, including the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches, remains at the early stages of development and application. This work describes a new effort which has modelled and mapped multiple nature dependent sectors of the tourism industry across five small island nations. It makes broad use of UGC, while acknowledging the challenges and strengthening the approach with substantive input, correction, and modification from local experts. Our approach to measuring the nature-dependency of tourism is practical and scalable, producing data, maps and statistics of sufficient detail and veracity to support sustainable resource management, marine spatial planning, and the wider promotion of the Blue Economy framework.

Planning for resilience: Incorporating scenario and model uncertainty and trade-offs when prioritizing management of climate refugia.

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here, we identify 'Climate Priority' sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence, and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modelling work is novel because it solves two important issues. (1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses and (2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological conditions and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate-smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.

No Reef Is an Island: Integrating Coral Reef Connectivity Data into the Design of Regional-Scale Marine Protected Area Networks.

We integrated coral reef connectivity data for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into a conservation decision-making framework for designing a regional scale marine protected area (MPA) network that provides insight into ecological and political contexts. We used an ocean circulation model and regional coral reef data to simulate eight spawning events from 2008-2011, applying a maximum 30-day pelagic larval duration and 20% mortality rate. Coral larval dispersal patterns were analyzed between coral reefs across jurisdictional marine zones to identify spatial relationships between larval sources and destinations within countries and territories across the region. We applied our results in Marxan, a conservation planning software tool, to identify a regional coral reef MPA network design that meets conservation goals, minimizes underlying threats, and maintains coral reef connectivity. Our results suggest that approximately 77% of coral reefs identified as having a high regional connectivity value are not included in the existing MPA network. This research is unique because we quantify and report coral larval connectivity data by marine ecoregions and Exclusive Economic Zones (EZZ) and use this information to identify gaps in the current Caribbean-wide MPA network by integrating asymmetric connectivity information in Marxan to design a regional MPA network that includes important reef network connections. The identification of important reef connectivity metrics guides the selection of priority conservation areas and supports resilience at the whole system level into the future.

The Impact of Aerosol Particle Mixing State on the Hygroscopicity of Sea Spray Aerosol.

Aerosol particles influence global climate by determining cloud droplet number concentrations, brightness, and lifetime. Primary aerosol particles, such as those produced from breaking waves in the ocean, display large particle-particle variability in chemical composition, morphology, and physical phase state, all of which affect the ability of individual particles to accommodate water and grow into cloud droplets. Despite such diversity in molecular composition, there is a paucity of methods available to assess how particle-particle variability in chemistry translates to corresponding differences in aerosol hygroscopicity. Here, an approach has been developed that allows for characterization of the distribution of aerosol hygroscopicity within a chemically complex population of atmospheric particles. This methodology, when applied to the interpretation of nascent sea spray aerosol, provides a quantitative framework for connecting results obtained using molecular mimics generated in the laboratory with chemically complex ambient aerosol. We show that nascent sea spray aerosol, generated in situ in the Atlantic Ocean, displays a broad distribution of particle hygroscopicities, indicative of a correspondingly broad distribution of particle chemical compositions. Molecular mimics of sea spray aerosol organic material were used in the laboratory to assess the volume fractions and molecular functionality required to suppress sea spray aerosol hygroscopicity to the extent indicated by field observations. We show that proper accounting for the distribution and diversity in particle hygroscopicity and composition are important to the assessment of particle impacts on clouds and global climate.

Deliquescence phase transition measurements by quartz crystal microbalance frequency shifts.

Measurements of the hygroscopic properties of aerosols are needed to better understand the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei. Several techniques have been used to measure deliquescence (solid to liquid) phase transitions in particular. In this study, we have measured the deliquescence relative humidity (DRH) of organic and inorganic salts, organic acids (glutaric and succinic acid), and mixtures of organic acids with ammonium sulfate using a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM). The QCM allows for measurement of the deliquescence phase transition due to inherent measurement differences between solids and liquids in the oscillation frequency of a quartz crystal. The relative humidity dependent frequency measurements can be used to identify compounds that adsorb monolayer amounts of water or form hydrates prior to deliquescence (e.g., lithium chloride, potassium and sodium acetate). Although the amount of water uptake by a deliquescing material cannot be quantified with this technique, deliquescence measurements of mixtures of hygroscopic and nonhygroscopic components (e.g., ammonium sulfate and succinic acid (DRH > 95%)) show that the mass fraction of the deliquescing portion of the sample can be quantitatively determined from the relative change in oscillation frequency at deliquescence. The results demonstrate the use of this technique as an alternative method for phase transition measurements and as a direct measurement of the mass fraction of a sample that undergoes deliquescence. Further, deliquescence measurements by the QCM may provide improved understanding of discrepancies in atmospheric particle mass measurements between filter samples and the tapered element oscillating microbalance given the similar measurement principle employed by the QCM.