Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Climate change-induced increases in precipitation are reducing the potential for solar ultraviolet radiation to inactivate pathogens in surface waters.

Climate change is accelerating the release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland and coastal waters through increases in precipitation, thawing of permafrost, and changes in vegetation. Our modeling approach suggests that the selective absorption of ultraviolet radiation (UV) by DOM decreases the valuable ecosystem service wherein sunlight inactivates waterborne pathogens. Here we highlight the sensitivity of waterborne pathogens of humans and wildlife to solar UV, and use the DNA action spectrum to model how differences in water transparency and incident sunlight alter the ability of UV to inactivate waterborne pathogens. A case study demonstrates how heavy precipitation events can reduce the solar inactivation potential in Lake Michigan, which provides drinking water to over 10 million people. These data suggest that widespread increases in DOM and consequent browning of surface waters reduce the potential for solar UV inactivation of pathogens, and increase exposure to infectious diseases in humans and wildlife.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected.

A hydrodynamics-based approach to evaluating the risk of waterborne pathogens entering drinking water intakes in a large, stratified lake.

Pathogen contamination of drinking water lakes and reservoirs is a severe threat to human health worldwide. A major source of pathogens in surface sources of drinking waters is from body-contact recreation in the water body. However, dispersion pathways of human waterborne pathogens from recreational beaches, where body-contact recreation is known to occur to drinking water intakes, and the associated risk of pathogens entering the drinking water supply remain largely undocumented. A high spatial resolution, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and particle tracking modeling approach has been developed to analyze the risk and mechanisms presented by pathogen dispersion. The pathogen model represents the processes of particle release, transport and survival. Here survival is a function of both water temperature and cumulative exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Pathogen transport is simulated using a novel and computationally efficient technique of tracking particle trajectories backwards, from a drinking water intake toward their source areas. The model has been applied to a large, alpine lake - Lake Tahoe, CA-NV (USA). The dispersion model results reveal that for this particular lake (1) the risk of human waterborne pathogens to enter drinking water intakes is low, but significant; (2) this risk is strongly related to the depth of the thermocline in relation to the depth of the intake; (3) the risk increases with the seasonal deepening of the surface mixed layer; and (4) the risk increases at night when the surface mixed layer deepens through convective mixing and inactivation by UV radiation is eliminated. While these risk factors will quantitatively vary in different lakes, these same mechanisms will govern the process of transport of pathogens.

A 3D individual-based aquatic transport model for the assessment of the potential dispersal of planktonic larvae of an invasive bivalve.

The unwanted impacts of non-indigenous species have become one of the major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Assessing the potential dispersal and colonization of non-indigenous species is necessary to prevent or reduce deleterious effects that may lead to ecosystem degradation and a range of economic impacts. A three dimensional (3D) numerical model has been developed to evaluate the local dispersal of the planktonic larvae of an invasive bivalve, Asian clam (Corbicula fluminea), by passive hydraulic transport in Lake Tahoe, USA. The probability of dispersal of Asian clam larvae from the existing high density populations to novel habitats is determined by the magnitude and timing of strong wind events. The probability of colonization of new near-shore areas outside the existing beds is low, but sensitive to the larvae settling velocity ws. High larvae mortality was observed due to settling in unsuitable deep habitats. The impact of UV-radiation during the pelagic stages, on the Asian clam mortality was low. This work provides a quantification of the number of propagules that may be successfully transported as a result of natural processes and in function of population size. The knowledge and understanding of the relative contribution of different dispersal pathways, may directly inform decision-making and resource allocation associated with invasive species management.

The control of an invasive bivalve, Corbicula fluminea, using gas impermeable benthic barriers in a large natural lake.

Anoxia can restrict species establishment in aquatic systems and the artificial promotion of these conditions can provide an effective control strategy for invasive molluscs. Low abundances (2-20 m(-2)) of the nonnative bivalve, Asian clam (Corbicula fluminea), were first recorded in Lake Tahoe, CA-NV in 2002 and by 2010 nuisance-level population densities (>10,000 m(-2)) were observed. A non-chemical control method using gas impermeable benthic barriers to reduce dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations available to C. fluminea was tested in this ultra-oligotrophic natural lake. In 2009, the impact of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) sheets (9 m(2), n = 6) on C. fluminea beds was tested on 1-7 day intervals over a 56 day period (August-September). At an average water temperature of 18 °C, DO concentrations under these small barriers were reduced to zero after 72 h resulting in 100 % C. fluminea mortality after 28 days. In 2010, a large EPDM barrier (1,950 m(2)) was applied to C. fluminea populations for 120 days (July-November). C. fluminea abundances were reduced over 98 % after barrier removal, and remained significantly reduced (>90 %) 1 year later. Non-target benthic macroinvertebrate abundances were also reduced, with variable taxon-specific recolonization rates. High C. fluminea abundance under anoxic conditions increased the release of ammonium and soluble reactive phosphorus from the sediment substrate; but levels of unionized ammonia were low at 0.004-0.005 mg L(-1). Prolonged exposure to anoxia using benthic barriers can provide an effective short term control strategy for C. fluminea.

Stormwater and fire as sources of black carbon nanoparticles to Lake Tahoe.

Emitted to the atmosphere through fire and fossil fuel combustion, refractory black carbon nanoparticles (rBC) impact human health, climate, and the carbon cycle. Eventually these particles enter aquatic environments, where they may affect the fate of other pollutants. While ubiquitous, the particles are still poorly characterized in freshwater systems. Here we present the results of a study determining rBC in waters of the Lake Tahoe watershed in the western United States from 2007 to 2009. The study period spanned a large fire within the Tahoe basin, seasonal snowmelt, and a number of storm events, which resulted in pulses of urban runoff into the lake with rBC concentrations up to 4 orders of magnitude higher than midlake concentrations. The results show that rBC pulses from both the fire and urban runoff were rapidly attenuated suggesting unexpected aggregation or degradation of the particles. We find that those processes prevent rBC concentrations from building up in the clear and oligotrophic Lake Tahoe. This rapid removal of rBC soon after entry into the lake has implications for the transport of rBC in the global aquatic environment and the flux of rBC from continents to the global ocean.

Lake warming favours small-sized planktonic diatom species.

Diatoms contribute to a substantial portion of primary production in the oceans and many lakes. Owing to their relatively heavy cell walls and high nutrient requirements, planktonic diatoms are expected to decrease with climate warming because of reduced nutrient redistribution and increasing sinking velocities. Using a historical dataset, this study shows that diatoms were able to maintain their biovolume with increasing stratification in Lake Tahoe over the last decades; however, the diatom community structure changed. Increased stratification and reduced nitrogen to phosphorus ratios selected for small-celled diatoms, particularly within the Cyclotella genus. An empirical model showed that a shift in phytoplankton species composition and cell size was consistent within different depth strata, indicating that altered nutrient concentrations were not responsible for the change. The increase in small-celled species was sufficient to decrease the average diatom size and thus sinking velocity, which strongly influences energy transfer through the food web and carbon cycling. Our results show that within the diverse group of diatoms, small-sized species with a high surface area to volume ratio were able to adapt to a decrease in mixing intensity, supporting the hypotheses that abiotic drivers affect the size structure of planktonic communities and that warmer climate favours small-sized diatom cells.

The legacy of mercury cycling from mining sources in an aquatic ecosystem: from ore to organism.

Clear Lake is the site of an abandoned mercury (Hg) mine (active intermittently from 1873 to 1957), now a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Superfund Site. Mining activities, including bulldozing waste rock and tailings into the lake, resulted in approximately 100 Mg of Hg entering the lake's ecosystem. This series of papers represents the culmination of approximately 15 years of Hg-related studies on this ecosystem, following Hg from the ore body to the highest trophic levels. A series of physical, chemical, biological, and limnological studies elucidate how ongoing Hg loading to the lake is influenced by acid mine drainage and how wind-driven currents and baroclinic circulation patterns redistribute Hg throughout the lake. Methylmercury (MeHg) production in this system is controlled by both sulfate-reducing bacteria as well as newly identified iron-reducing bacteria. Sediment cores (dated with dichlorodiphenyldichlorethane [DDD], 210pb, and 14C) to approximately 250 cm depth (representing up to approximately 3000 years before present) elucidate a record of total Hg (TotHg) loading to the lake from natural sources and mining and demonstrate how MeHg remains stable at depth within the sediment column for decades to millenia. Core data also identify other stresses that have influenced the Clear Lake Basin especially over the past 150 years. Although Clear Lake is one of the most Hg-contaminated lakes in the world, biota do not exhibit MeHg concentrations as high as would be predicted based on the gross level of Hg loading. We compare Clear Lake's TotHg and MeHg concentrations with other sites worldwide and suggest several hypotheses to explain why this discrepancy exists. Based on our data, together with state and federal water and sediment quality criteria, we predict potential resulting environmental and human health effects and provide data that can assist remediation efforts.

Use of tracers to quantify subsurface flow through a mining pit.

Three independent tracer experiments were conducted to quantify the through-flow of water from Herman Pit, an abandoned mercury (Hg) mine pit adjacent to Clear Lake, California, USA. The tracers used were Rhodamine-WT, sulfur hexafluoride, and a mixture of sulfur hexafluoride and neon-22. The tracers were injected into Herman Pit, a generally well-mixed water body of approximately 81,000 m2, and the concentrations were monitored in the mine pit, observation wells, and the lake for 2-3 months following each injection. The results for all three experiments showed that the tracer arrived at certain observation wells within days of injection. Comparing all the well data showed a highly heterogeneous response, with a small number of wells showing this near-instantaneous response and others taking months before the tracer was detectable. Tracer was also found in the lake on four occasions over a one-month period, too few to infer any pattern but sufficient to confirm the connection of the two water bodies. Using a simple mass balance model it was possible to determine the effective loss rate through advection for each of the tracers and with this to estimate the through-flow rate. The through-flow rate for all three experiments was approximately 630 L/s, at least 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than previous estimates, all of which had been based on geochemical inferences or other indirect measures of the pit through-flow.

Mechanisms of contaminant transport in a multi-basin lake.

Tracer studies are combined with a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical modeling study to provide a robust description of hydrodynamic and particle transport in Clear Lake, a multi-basin, polymictic lake in northern California, USA. The focus is on the mechanisms of transport of contaminants away from the vicinity of the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine and out of the Oaks Arm to the rest of the lake and the hydraulic connection existing among the sub-basins of the lake. Under stratified conditions, the rate of spreading of the tracer was found to be large. In less than a week the tracer spread from the eastern end of the Oaks Arm to the other basins. Under non-stratified conditions, the tracer spread more slowly and had a concentration that gradually diminished with distance from the injection location. The numerical results showed that the mechanisms accounting for these observed patterns occur in pulses, with maximum rates coinciding with the stratified periods. Stratification acts first to enhance the currents by inhibiting vertical momentum mixing and decoupling the surface currents from bottom friction. The diversity of the flow structures that results from the interaction of the wind and the density fields in the lake is responsible for the high dispersion rates. Contaminants originating in the Oaks Arm are shown to be transported into the Lower Arm following the surface currents and into the Upper Arm mainly through the bottom currents. It was also shown that, under stratified conditions, both the baroclinic (density driven) gradients and the wind forcing act jointly to exacerbate the interbasin exchange.

Exchange flow in a shallow lake embayment.

Convectively driven currents can arise in the littoral zones of lakes, as a result of either differential heating or differential cooling of the shallow water. The result of these flows is to produce a surface flow away from shore with a bottom return flow or a bottom flow away from shore with a surface return flow. Measurements taken in a shallow embayment of Clear Lake, California, USA, show the presence of both kinds of convectively driven flows under a large variety of summer conditions. The magnitude of these flows is sufficient to transport material a distance on the order of 0.5 km during such events. Through both advection and dispersion the net result of this process would be to reduce the accumulation of particles and particle-associated contaminants such as mercury in the littoral zone and to move them offshore where they are more prone to permanent burial or further transport.

Modeling MTBE and BTEX in lakes and reservoirs used for recreational boating.

It is generally recognized that the bulk of fuel-related volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in lakes and reservoirs come from motorized recreational boating, but a quantitative connection between the two has been difficult to establish. A detailed boating use survey was conducted at a Northern California multiple-use lake, and the results were used to quantify daily methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) loading from recreational boating. A one-dimensional, process-based numerical model was used to predict VOC levels as a function of the number, type, and activity of marine engines using the lake, the vertical mixing dynamics of the lake, and the volatilization rates of the individual VOCs. The model was validated on two other reservoirs to establish its applicability under a range of climatic and boating conditions. The study further confirmed the link between motorized boating and surface-water VOC contamination. In addition, the results of this study suggest that volatilization alone is inadequate to describe the loss of volatile hydrocarbons from surface waters and that some combination of additional degradation processes is involved. Under low wind conditions, these degradation processes dominate the removal of MTBE. For toluene, these processes are always more dominant than volatilization. The mean relative percent difference (RPD) between measured and simulated VOC concentrations at the study site, accounting only for volatilization losses, was 50.6% for MTBE and 113% for toluene. A first-order submodel was implemented to account for losses other than volatilization, using decay coefficients estimated from the literature. The resulting mean RPDs between measured and modeled concentrations were 14.2% for MTBE and 4.5% for toluene.