Safety of Ancestral Monovalent BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 Vaccines in US Children Aged 6 Months to 17 Years.

Importance: Active monitoring of health outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination provides early detection of rare outcomes that may not be identified in prelicensure trials. Objective: To conduct near-real-time monitoring of health outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination in the US pediatric population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study evaluated 21 prespecified health outcomes after exposure before early 2023 to BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or NVX-CoV2373 ancestral monovalent COVID-19 vaccines in children aged 6 months to 17 years by applying a near-real-time monitoring framework using health care data from 3 commercial claims databases in the US (Optum [through April 2023], Carelon Research [through March 2023], and CVS Health [through February 2023]). Increased rates of each outcome after vaccination were compared with annual historical rates from January 1 to December 31, 2019, and January 1 to December 31, 2020, as well as between April 1 and December 31, 2020. Exposure: Receipt of an ancestral monovalent BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 vaccine dose identified through administrative claims data linked with Immunization Information Systems data. Main Outcomes and Measures: Twenty-one prespecified health outcomes, of which 15 underwent sequential testing and 6 were only monitored descriptively due to lack of historical rates. Results: Among 4 102 016 vaccinated enrollees aged 6 months to 17 years, 2 058 142 (50.2%) were male and 3 901 370 (95.1%) lived in an urban area. Thirteen of 15 sequentially tested outcomes did not meet the threshold for a statistical signal. Statistical signals were detected for myocarditis or pericarditis after BNT162b2 vaccination in children aged 12 to 17 years and seizure after vaccination with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 in children aged 2 to 4 or 5 years. However, in post hoc sensitivity analyses, a statistical signal for seizure was observed only after mRNA-1273 when 2019 background rates were selected; no statistical signal was observed when 2022 rates were selected. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of pediatric enrollees across 3 commercial health insurance databases, statistical signals detected for myocarditis or pericarditis after BNT162b2 (ages 12-17 years) were consistent with previous reports, and seizures after BNT162b2 (ages 2-4 years) and mRNA-1273 vaccinations (ages 2-5 years) should be further investigated in a robust epidemiologic study with confounding adjustment. The US Food and Drug Administration concludes that the known and potential benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the known and potential risks of COVID-19 infection.

Incidence rates of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) among adults in United States commercial and Medicare claims databases, 2017-2020.

BACKGROUND: Increased risk of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) following adenovirus vector-based COVID-19 vaccinations has been identified in passive surveillance systems. TTS incidence rates (IRs) in the United States (U.S.) are needed to contextualize reports following COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: We estimated annual and monthly IRs of overall TTS, common site TTS, and unusual site TTS for adults aged 18-64 years in Carelon Research and MarketScan commercial claims (2017-Oct 2020), CVS Health and Optum commercial claims (2019-Oct 2020), and adults aged ≥ 65 years using CMS Medicare claims (2019-Oct 2020); IRs were stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity (CMS Medicare). RESULTS: Across data sources, annual IRs for overall TTS were similar between Jan-Dec 2019 and Jan-Oct 2020. Rates were higher in Medicare (IRs: 370.72 and 365.63 per 100,000 person-years for 2019 and 2020, respectively) than commercial data sources (MarketScan IRs: 24.21 and 24.06 per 100,000 person-years; Optum IRs: 32.60 and 31.29 per 100,000 person-years; Carelon Research IRs: 24.46 and 26.16 per 100,000 person-years; CVS Health IRs: 30.31 and 30.25 per 100,000 person-years). Across years and databases, common site TTS IRs increased with age and were higher among males. Among adults aged ≥ 65 years, the common site TTS IR was highest among non-Hispanic black adults. Annual unusual site TTS IRs ranged between 2.02 and 3.04 (commercial) and 12.49 (Medicare) per 100,000 person-years for Jan-Dec 2019; IRs ranged between 1.53 and 2.67 (commercial) and 11.57 (Medicare) per 100,000 person-years for Jan-Oct 2020. Unusual site TTS IRs were higher in males and increased with age in commercial data sources; among adults aged ≥ 65 years, IRs decreased with age and were highest among non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska native adults. CONCLUSION: TTS IRs were generally similar across years, higher for males, and increased with age. These rates may contribute to surveillance of post-vaccination TTS.

Safety of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccine in Children Aged 5 to 17 Years.

Importance: Active monitoring of health outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination offers early detection of rare outcomes that may not be identified in prelicensure trials. Objective: To conduct near-real-time monitoring of health outcomes following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in the US pediatric population aged 5 to 17 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based study was conducted under a public health surveillance mandate from the US Food and Drug Administration. Participants aged 5 to 17 years were included if they received BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination through mid 2022 and had continuous enrollment in a medical health insurance plan from the start of an outcome-specific clean window until the COVID-19 vaccination. Surveillance of 20 prespecified health outcomes was conducted in near real time within a cohort of vaccinated individuals from the earliest Emergency Use Authorization date for the BNT162b2 vaccination (December 11, 2020) and was expanded as more pediatric age groups received authorization through May and June 2022. All 20 health outcomes were monitored descriptively, 13 of which additionally underwent sequential testing. For these 13 health outcomes, the increased risk of each outcome after vaccination was compared with a historical baseline with adjustments for repeated looks at the data as well as a claims processing delay. A sequential testing approach was used, which declared a safety signal when the log likelihood ratio comparing the observed rate ratio against the null hypothesis exceeded a critical value. Exposure: Exposure was defined as receipt of a BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine dose. The primary analysis assessed primary series doses together (dose 1 + dose 2), and dose-specific secondary analyses were conducted. Follow-up time was censored for death, disenrollment, end of the outcome-specific risk window, end of the study period, or a receipt of a subsequent vaccine dose. Main Outcomes: Twenty prespecified health outcomes: 13 were assessed using sequential testing and 7 were monitored descriptively because of a lack of historical comparator data. Results: This study included 3 017 352 enrollees aged 5 to 17 years. Of the enrollees across all 3 databases, 1 510 817 (50.1%) were males, 1 506 499 (49.9%) were females, and 2 867 436 (95.0%) lived in an urban area. In the primary sequential analyses, a safety signal was observed only for myocarditis or pericarditis after primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 in the age group 12 to 17 years across all 3 databases. No safety signals were observed for the 12 other outcomes assessed using sequential testing. Conclusions and Relevance: Among 20 health outcomes that were monitored in near real time, a safety signal was identified for only myocarditis or pericarditis. Consistent with other published reports, these results provide additional evidence that COVID-19 vaccines are safe in children.

Contextualising adverse events of special interest to characterise the baseline incidence rates in 24 million patients with COVID-19 across 26 databases: a multinational retrospective cohort study.

Background: Adverse events of special interest (AESIs) were pre-specified to be monitored for the COVID-19 vaccines. Some AESIs are not only associated with the vaccines, but with COVID-19. Our aim was to characterise the incidence rates of AESIs following SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients and compare these to historical rates in the general population. Methods: A multi-national cohort study with data from primary care, electronic health records, and insurance claims mapped to a common data model. This study's evidence was collected between Jan 1, 2017 and the conclusion of each database (which ranged from Jul 2020 to May 2022). The 16 pre-specified prevalent AESIs were: acute myocardial infarction, anaphylaxis, appendicitis, Bell's palsy, deep vein thrombosis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, encephalomyelitis, Guillain- Barré syndrome, haemorrhagic stroke, non-haemorrhagic stroke, immune thrombocytopenia, myocarditis/pericarditis, narcolepsy, pulmonary embolism, transverse myelitis, and thrombosis with thrombocytopenia. Age-sex standardised incidence rate ratios (SIR) were estimated to compare post-COVID-19 to pre-pandemic rates in each of the databases. Findings: Substantial heterogeneity by age was seen for AESI rates, with some clearly increasing with age but others following the opposite trend. Similarly, differences were also observed across databases for same health outcome and age-sex strata. All studied AESIs appeared consistently more common in the post-COVID-19 compared to the historical cohorts, with related meta-analytic SIRs ranging from 1.32 (1.05 to 1.66) for narcolepsy to 11.70 (10.10 to 13.70) for pulmonary embolism. Interpretation: Our findings suggest all AESIs are more common after COVID-19 than in the general population. Thromboembolic events were particularly common, and over 10-fold more so. More research is needed to contextualise post-COVID-19 complications in the longer term. Funding: None.

The impact of hydrocodone rescheduling on utilization, abuse, misuse, and overdose deaths.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of increased federal restrictions on hydrocodone combination product (HCP) utilization, misuse, abuse, and overdose death. METHODS: We assessed utilization, misuse, abuse, and overdose death trends involving hydrocodone versus select opioid analgesics (OAs) and heroin using descriptive and interrupted time-series (ITS) analyses during the nine quarters before and after the October 2014 rescheduling of HCPs from a less restrictive (CIII) to more restrictive (CII) category. RESULTS: Hydrocodone dispensing declined >30% over the study period, and declines accelerated after rescheduling. ITS analyses showed that immediately postrescheduling, quarterly hydrocodone dispensing decreased by 177M dosage units while codeine, oxycodone, and morphine dispensing increased by 49M, 62M, and 4M dosage units, respectively. Postrescheduling, hydrocodone-involved misuse/abuse poison center (PC) case rates had a statistically significant immediate drop but a deceleration of preperiod declines. There were small level increases in codeine-involved PC misuse/abuse and overdose death rates immediately after HCP's rescheduling, but these were smaller than level decreases in rates for hydrocodone. Heroin-involved PC case rates and overdose death rates increased across the study period, with exponential increases in PC case rates beginning 2015. CONCLUSIONS: HCP rescheduling was associated with accelerated declines in hydrocodone dispensing, only partially offset by smaller increases in codeine, oxycodone, and morphine dispensing. The net impact on hydrocodone and other OA-involved misuse/abuse and fatal overdose was unclear. We did not detect an immediate impact on heroin abuse or overdose death rates; however, the dynamic nature of the crisis and data limitations present challenges to causal inference.

Background rates of adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccine safety monitoring in the United States, 2019-2020.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Biologics Effectiveness and Safety (BEST) Initiative conducts active surveillance of adverse events of special interest (AESI) after COVID-19 vaccination. Historical incidence rates (IRs) of AESI are comparators to evaluate safety. METHODS: We estimated IRs of 17 AESI in six administrative claims databases from January 1, 2019, to December 11, 2020: Medicare claims for adults ≥ 65 years and commercial claims (Blue Health Intelligence®, CVS Health, HealthCore Integrated Research Database, IBM® MarketScan® Commercial Database, Optum pre-adjudicated claims) for adults < 65 years. IRs were estimated by sex, age, race/ethnicity (Medicare), and nursing home residency (Medicare) in 2019 and for specific periods in 2020. RESULTS: The study included >100 million enrollees annually. In 2019, rates of most AESI increased with age. However, compared with commercially insured adults, Medicare enrollees had lower IRs of anaphylaxis (11 vs 12-19 per 100,000 person-years), appendicitis (80 vs 117-155), and narcolepsy (38 vs 41-53). Rates were higher in males than females for most AESI across databases and varied by race/ethnicity and nursing home status (Medicare). Acute myocardial infarction (Medicare) and anaphylaxis (all databases) IRs varied by season. IRs of most AESI were lower during March-May 2020 compared with March-May 2019 but returned to pre-pandemic levels after May 2020. However, rates of Bell's palsy, Guillain-Barré syndrome, narcolepsy, and hemorrhagic/non-hemorrhagic stroke remained lower in multiple databases after May 2020, whereas some AESI (e.g., disseminated intravascular coagulation) exhibited higher rates after May 2020 compared with 2019. CONCLUSION: AESI background rates varied by database and demographics and fluctuated in March-December 2020, but most returned to pre-pandemic levels after May 2020. It is critical to standardize demographics and consider seasonal and other trends when comparing historical rates with post-vaccination AESI rates in the same database to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine safety.

Near real-time surveillance of safety outcomes in US COVID-19 vaccine recipients aged 12 to 64 years.

BACKGROUND: Active monitoring of safety outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination is critical to understand vaccine safety and can provide early detection of rare outcomes not identified in pre-licensure trials. We present findings from an early warning rapid surveillance system in three large commercial insurance databases including more than 16 million vaccinated individuals. METHODS: We evaluated 17 outcomes of interest following COVID-19 vaccination among individuals aged 12-64 years in Optum, HealthCore, and CVS Health databases from December 11, 2020, through January 22, 2022, January 7, 2022, and December 31, 2021, respectively. We conducted biweekly or monthly sequential testing and generated rate ratios (RR) of observed outcome rates compared to historical (or expected) rates prior to COVID-19 vaccination. FINDINGS: Among 17 outcomes evaluated, 15 did not meet the threshold for statistical signal in any of the three databases. Myocarditis/pericarditis met the statistical threshold for a signal following BNT162b2 in two of three databases (RRs: 1.83-2.47). Anaphylaxis met the statistical threshold for a signal in all three databases following BNT162b2 vaccination (RRs: 4.48-10.86) and mRNA-1273 vaccination (RRs: 7.64-12.40). DISCUSSION: Consistent with published literature, our near-real time monitoring of 17 adverse outcomes following COVID-19 vaccinations identified signals for myocarditis/pericarditis and anaphylaxis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations. The method is intended for early detection of safety signals, and results do not imply a causal effect. Results of this study should be interpreted in the context of the method's utility and limitations, and the validity of detected signals must be evaluated in fully adjusted epidemiologic studies.

Evaluating real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness using a test-negative case-control design.

Aim: It is important to assess if clinical trial efficacy translates into real-world effectiveness for COVID-19 vaccines. Materials & methods: We conducted a modified test-negative design (TND) to evaluate the real-world effectiveness of three COVID-19 vaccines. We defined cases in two ways: self-reported COVID-19-positive tests, and self-reported positive tests with ≥1 moderate/severe COVID-19 symptom. Results: Any vaccination was associated with a 95% reduction in subsequently reporting a positive COVID-19 test, and a 71% reduction in reporting a positive test and ≥1 moderate/severe symptom. Conclusion: We observed high effectiveness across all three marketed vaccines, both for self-reported positive COVID-19 tests and moderate/severe COVID-19 symptoms. This innovative TND approach can be implemented in future COVID-19 vaccine and treatment real-world effectiveness studies. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT04368065.

Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis after the COVID-19 mRNA vaccination in the USA: a cohort study in claims databases.

BACKGROUND: Several passive surveillance systems reported increased risks of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, especially in young men. We used active surveillance from large health-care databases to quantify and enable the direct comparison of the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccinations. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, examining the primary outcome of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, identified using the International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes, occurring 1-7 days post-vaccination, evaluated in COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees aged 18-64 years using health plan claims databases in the USA. Observed (O) incidence rates were compared with expected (E) incidence rates estimated from historical cohorts by each database. We used multivariate Poisson regression to estimate the adjusted incidence rates, specific to each brand of vaccine, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2. We used meta-analyses to pool the adjusted incidence rates and IRRs across databases. FINDINGS: A total of 411 myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, events were observed among 15 148 369 people aged 18-64 years who received 16 912 716 doses of BNT162b2 and 10 631 554 doses of mRNA-1273. Among men aged 18-25 years, the pooled incidence rate was highest after the second dose, at 1·71 (95% CI 1·31 to 2·23) per 100 000 person-days for BNT162b2 and 2·17 (1·55 to 3·04) per 100 000 person-days for mRNA-1273. The pooled IRR in the head-to-head comparison of the two mRNA vaccines was 1·43 (95% CI 0·88 to 2·34), with an excess risk of 27·80 per million doses (-21·88 to 77·48) in mRNA-1273 recipients compared with BNT162b2. INTERPRETATION: An increased risk of myocarditis or pericarditis was observed after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and was highest in men aged 18-25 years after a second dose of the vaccine. However, the incidence was rare. These results do not indicate a statistically significant risk difference between mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, but it should not be ruled out that a difference might exist. Our study results, along with the benefit-risk profile, continue to support vaccination using either of the two mRNA vaccines. FUNDING: US Food and Drug Administration.

Merging statewide data in a public/university collaboration to address opioid use disorder and overdose.

OBJECTIVE: Describe methods to compile a unified database from disparate state agency datasets linking person-level data on controlled substance prescribing, overdose, and treatment for opioid use disorder in Connecticut. METHODS: A multidisciplinary team of university, state and federal agency experts planned steps to build the data analytic system: stakeholder engagement, articulation of metrics, funding to establish the system, determination of needed data, accessing data and merging, and matching patient-level data. RESULTS: Stakeholder meetings occurred over a 6-month period driving selection of metrics and funding was obtained through a grant from the Food and Drug Administration. Through multi-stakeholder collaborations and memoranda of understanding, we identified relevant data sources, merged them and matched individuals across the merged dataset. The dataset contains information on sociodemographics, treatments and outcomes. Step-by-step processes are presented for dissemination. CONCLUSIONS: Creation of a unified database linking multiple sources in a timely and ongoing fashion may assist other states to monitor the public health impact of controlled substances, identify and implement interventions, and assess their effectiveness.

Hyperkalemia and Acute Kidney Injury with Spironolactone Use Among Patients with Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the risk of hyperkalemia and acute kidney injury (AKI) when spironolactone use is added on to loop diuretic use among patients with heart failure, and to evaluate whether the risk is modified by level of kidney function. METHODS: We identified 17,110 patients with heart failure treated with loop diuretics between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2016 within the Geisinger Health System. We estimated the incidence of hyperkalemia and AKI associated with spironolactone initiation, and used target trial emulation methods to minimize confounding by indication. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 134 mo, 3229 of 17,110 patients (18.9%) initiated spironolactone. Incidence rates of hyperkalemia and AKI in patients using spironolactone with a loop diuretic were 2.9 and 10.1 events per 1000 person-months, respectively. In propensity score-matched analyses, spironolactone initiation was associated with higher hyperkalemia and AKI risk compared with loop alone (hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.35 to 2.10; P<.001, and hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.26; P=.04, respectively). There were no differences in the relative risk of either outcome associated with spironolactone by level of kidney function. CONCLUSION: The addition of spironolactone to loop diuretics in patients with heart failure was associated with higher risk of hyperkalemia and AKI; these risks must be weighed against the potential benefits of spironolactone.

Discontinuation of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers in Chronic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the patterns of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ACE-I/ARB) discontinuation in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in real-world clinical practice. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified incident ACE-I/ARB users with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m2 and without end-stage renal disease in the Geisinger Health System between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2015. We investigated the associations of CKD stage, hospitalizations with and without acute kidney injury (AKI), serum potassium, bicarbonate level, thiazide, and loop diuretic use with ACE-I/ARB discontinuation. RESULTS: Among the 53,912 ACE-I/ARB users, the mean age was 59.9 years, and 50.6% were female. More than half of users discontinued ACE-I/ARB within 5 years of therapy initiation. The risk of ACE-I/ARB discontinuation increased with more advanced CKD stage. For example, patients who initiated ACE-I/ARB with CKD stage G4 (eGFR: 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m2) were 2.09-fold (95% CI, 1.87-2.34) more likely to discontinue therapy than those with eGFR ≥ 90 mL/min/1.73 m2. Potassium level greater than 5.3 mEq/L, systolic blood pressure ≤ 90 mm Hg, bicarbonate level < 22 mmol/L, and intervening hospitalization-particularly AKI-related-were also strong risk factors for ACE-I/ARB discontinuation. Thiazide diuretic use was associated with lower risk, whereas loop diuretic use was associated with higher risk of discontinuation. CONCLUSION: In a real-world cohort, discontinuation of ACE-I/ARB was common, particularly in patients with lower eGFR. Hyperkalemia, hypotension, low bicarbonate level, and hospitalization (AKI-related, in particular) were associated with a higher risk of ACE-I/ARB discontinuation. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the risk-benefit balance of discontinuing ACE-I/ARB in the setting of CKD progression.

Elevated Vancomycin Trough Levels in a Tertiary Health System: Frequency, Risk Factors, and Prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the frequency of, risk factors for, and outcomes after elevated levels of vancomycin. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified hospitalizations among 21,285 individuals in which intravenous vancomycin was given between August 29, 2007, and October 10, 2014. We investigated frequency and risk factors for elevated vancomycin levels (trough levels >30 mg/L) as well as associations with subsequent acute kidney injury (AKI), length of stay, and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Among the 21,285 patients, the mean age was 62.9 years, and 10,478 (49.2%) were female. Trough levels of vancomycin were checked in 7422 patients, and 755 elevated levels were detected. Compared with patients with trough levels checked but no elevated levels found, those with elevated levels had longer duration of vancomycin therapy (median, 6.0 days vs 3.4 days; P<.001) and slightly higher doses (mean, 1.72 g vs 1.58 g; P<.001). Patients with higher body mass index or lower estimated glomerular filtration rate had more elevated levels. In propensity-matched analyses, patients had higher risk of incident AKI after elevated levels compared with patients without elevated levels (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.09-2.20; P=.02), as well as longer subsequent length of stay (relative risk, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28; P=.03) but similar in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: In this study, elevated vancomycin levels were common, particularly in patients with higher body mass index and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, and were associated with greater subsequent AKI and length of stay.

Kidney Function, Polypharmacy, and Potentially Inappropriate Medication Use in a Community-Based Cohort of Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) afflicts many older adults and increases the risk for medication-related adverse events. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and associated morbidity and mortality of polypharmacy (use of several medications concurrently), and potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use in older adults, looking for differences by CKD status. METHODS: We quantified medication and PIM use (from Beers criteria, the Screening Tool of Older People's Prescriptions, and Micromedex®) by level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for participants aged 65 years or older attending a baseline study visit in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (n =6392). We used zero-inflated negative binomial and Cox proportional hazards regressions to assess the relationship between baseline polypharmacy, PIM use, and subsequent hospitalization and death. RESULTS: Mean age at baseline was 76 (± 5) years, 59% were female, and 29% had CKD (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2). Overall, participants reported 6.1 (± 3.5) medications and 2.3 (± 2.2) vitamins/supplements; 16% reported ≥ 10 medications; 31% reported a PIM based on their age. On average, participants with CKD reported more medications. A PIM based on kidney function was used by 36% of those with eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Over a median of 2.6 years, more concurrent medications were associated with higher risk of hospitalization and death, but PIM use was not. While those with CKD had higher absolute risks, there was no difference in the relative risks associated with greater numbers of medications by CKD status. CONCLUSION: Polypharmacy and PIM use were common, with greater numbers of medications associated with higher risk of hospitalization and death; relative risks were similar for those with and without CKD.

Risks and Benefits of Direct Oral Anticoagulants across the Spectrum of GFR among Incident and Prevalent Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: All randomized trials of direct oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation excluded patients with severe kidney disease. The safety and effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants across the range of eGFR in real-world settings is unknown. Our objective is to quantify the risk of bleeding and benefit of ischemic stroke prevention for direct oral anticoagulants compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation with and without CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We created a propensity score-matched cohort of 3206 patients with atrial fibrillation and direct oral anticoagulant use and 3206 patients with atrial fibrillation using warfarin from October of 2010 to February of 2017 in an electronic health record (Geisinger Health System). The risks of bleeding and ischemic stroke were compared between direct oral anticoagulant and warfarin users using Cox proportional hazards regression, stratified by eGFR (≥60 and <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2). RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of the 6412 participants was 72 (12) years, 47% were women, and average eGFR was 69 (21) ml/min per 1.73 m2. There were 1181 bleeding events and 466 ischemic strokes over 7391 person-years of follow-up. Compared with warfarin use, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [95% CI]) of bleeding associated with direct oral anticoagulant use were 1.01 (0.88 to 1.17) and 1.23 (1.02 to 1.48) for those with eGFR≥60 and eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively (P-interaction=0.10). There was no difference between direct oral anticoagulant and warfarin users in the risk of ischemic stroke: HRs (95% CI) of 0.94 (0.74 to 1.18) and 1.02 (0.76 to 1.37) for those with eGFR≥60 and eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively (P-interaction=0.70). Similar findings were observed with individual drugs. CONCLUSIONS: In a large health care system, patients with eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 who took direct oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation had slightly higher risk of bleeding compared with those on warfarin, but similar benefits from prevention of ischemic stroke.

Association of Metformin Use With Risk of Lactic Acidosis Across the Range of Kidney Function: A Community-Based Cohort Study.

Importance: Approximately 1 million patients in the United States with type 2 diabetes mellitus and mild-to-moderate kidney disease do not receive guideline-directed therapy with metformin. This may reflect uncertainty regarding the risk of acidosis in patients with chronic kidney disease. Objective: To quantify the association between metformin use and hospitalization with acidosis across the range of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), accounting for change in eGFR stage over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: Community-based cohort of 75 413 patients with diabetes in Geisinger Health System, with time-dependent assessment of eGFR stage from January 2004 until January 2017. Results were replicated in 67 578 new metformin users and 14 439 new sulfonylurea users from 2010 to 2015, sourced from 350 private US health systems. Exposures: Metformin use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalization with acidosis (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code of 276.2). Results: In the primary cohort (n = 75 413), mean (SD) patient age was 60.4 (15.5) years, and 51% (n = 38 480) of the participants were female. There were 2335 hospitalizations with acidosis over a median follow-up of 5.7 years (interquartile range, 2.5-9.9 years). Compared with alternative diabetes management, time-dependent metformin use was not associated with incident acidosis overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.98; 95% CI, 0.89-1.08) or in patients with eGFR 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.95-1.41) and eGFR 30 to 44 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.83-1.44). On the other hand, metformin use was associated with an increased risk of acidosis at eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.33-3.22). Results were consistent when new metformin users were compared with new sulfonylurea users (adjusted HR for eGFR 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m2, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.29-2.05), in a propensity-matched cohort (adjusted HR for eGFR 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m2, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.45-1.12), when baseline insulin users were excluded (adjusted HR for eGFR 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m2, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.87-1.57), and in the replication cohort (adjusted HR for eGFR 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m2, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.37-2.01). Conclusions and Relevance: In 2 real-world clinical settings, metformin use was associated with acidosis only at eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73 m2. Our results support cautious use of metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes and eGFR of at least 30 mL/min/1.73 m2.

Important statistical considerations in the evaluation of post-market studies to assess whether opioids with abuse-deterrent properties result in reduced abuse in the community.

PURPOSE: Abuse, misuse, addiction, overdose, and death associated with non-medical use of prescription opioids have become a serious public health concern. Reformulation of these products with abuse-deterrent properties is one approach for addressing this problem. FDA has approved several extended-release opioid analgesics with abuse-deterrent labeling, the bases of which come from pre-market studies. As all opioid analgesics must be capable of delivering the opioid in order to reduce pain, abuse-deterrent properties do not prevent abuse, nor do pre-market evaluations ensure that there will be reduced abuse in the community. Utilizing data from various surveillance systems, some recent post-market studies suggest a decline in abuse of extended-release oxycodone after reformulation with abuse-deterrent properties. We discuss challenges stemming from the use of such data. METHODS: We quantify the relationship between the sample, the population, and the underlying sampling mechanism and identify the necessary conditions if valid statements about the population are to be made. The presence of other interventions in the community necessitates the use of comparators. We discuss the principles under which the use of comparators can be meaningful. CONCLUSIONS: Results based on surveillance data need to be interpreted with caution as the underlying sampling mechanisms can bias the results in unpredictable ways. The use of comparators has the potential to disentangle the effect due to the abuse-deterrence properties from those due to other interventions. However, identifying a comparator that is meaningful can be very difficult.

Opioid analgesic dose and the risk of misuse, overdose, and death: A narrative review.

PURPOSE: Despite the rise in serious adverse events paralleling increased prescription opioid analgesic use in the United States over the past 2 decades, the association between opioid analgesic dose and the risk of serious adverse health outcomes is incompletely characterized. We sought to synthesize the medical literature for observational studies examining the association between opioid analgesic dose and the risk of serious adverse health outcomes, with particular attention to the outcomes of misuse, abuse, addiction, overdose, and death. METHODS: Searching MEDLINE using PubMed and bibliography review, we identified 22 observational studies published between 2000 and 2015 that assessed the association between opioid analgesic dose and the risk of serious adverse health outcomes. Some of these studies had significant methodological limitations. Twelve reviewed studies examined the outcomes of misuse, overdose, or death; no studies examining the risk of addiction or abuse met our criteria for inclusion. RESULTS: The results of multiple studies clearly indicate an increasing risk of serious adverse health outcomes associated with increasing opioid analgesic dose. In particular, the risk of misuse, overdose, and death increases with increasing opioid analgesic dose. However, there is no opioid dose inflection point beyond which the risk of these adverse health outcomes increases. No opioid analgesic dose is without risk. CONCLUSIONS: The reviewed studies show an increasing risk of serious adverse health outcomes-including misuse, overdose, and death-associated with increasing opioid analgesic dose. Further research is needed to characterize the relationship between opioid analgesic dose and the risk of addiction and abuse. This analysis could inform policy actions for regulators and clinical decision making for providers.

Drug availability adjustments in population-based studies of prescription opioid abuse.

PURPOSE: Population-based prescription opioid abuse studies in which one drug is compared to another, or drugs are compared across time, often account for the availability of those drugs in the community. The objective of this investigation is to assess consistency in the relative abuse ratios (RARs) across different approaches for adjusting for drug availability. METHODS: For the years 2004 through 2010, RARs for each of four prescription opioids (hydrocodone, oxycodone, hydromorphone, and morphine) were calculated using negative binomial regression. Measures of abuse (outcome) were misuse/abuse-related emergency department visits obtained from the Drug Abuse Warning Network. Measures of drug availability (offsets) were drug utilization estimates obtained from IMS Health. Separate regression models were run using each of five measures of drug utilization: unique patients (URDD), prescriptions dispensed (RX), tablets dispensed (TD), kilograms (KGs) sold, and morphine-equivalents (MEs) of kilograms sold. These results were compared for consistency. RESULTS: Aside from oxycodone-combination products, across molecules, RARs adjusted by RXs, TDs, and URDDs were generally similar to each other while RARs adjusted by KGs and MEs were different. For example, compared to hydrocodone, oxycodone had statistically significantly increased RARs of 3.6 (95%CI: 2.0-6.5), 3.5 (95%CI: 1.9-6.4), and 2.7 (95%CI: 1.5-5.0) when adjusted by URDDs, RXs, and TDs, respectively, but not when adjusted by KGs or MEs. CONCLUSIONS: Different drug utilization adjustment approaches may yield inconsistent RAR estimates in population-based prescription opioid abuse analyses. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.