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1.
Arch Pathol Lab Med ; 2024 Jul 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38952294

RESUMO

CONTEXT.­: Mesothelioma subtyping into epithelioid and nonepithelioid categories plays a crucial role in prognosis and treatment selection, with emerging recognition of the impact of various histologic patterns. OBJECTIVE.­: To investigate the prognostic implications of transitional and pleomorphic patterns in sarcomatoid mesothelioma. DESIGN.­: A total of 132 mesothelioma cases (87 biphasic, 45 sarcomatoid) were analyzed. Histologic slides were assessed, treatment data collected, and cases categorized into predominant epithelioid or sarcomatoid patterns. The sarcomatoid mesotheliomas were classified into usual, pleomorphic, and transitional patterns, with reticulin staining for the latter. Statistical analysis included Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier methods. RESULTS.­: Younger age (P = .02) and receiving therapy (P < .001) correlated with improved survival for both histotypes. Advanced stage was associated with shorter survival in sarcomatoid cases (P = .02). Predominant epithelioid pattern in biphasic cases led to longer survival (P < .001). Transitional and pleomorphic patterns were indicative of worse prognosis, with significantly lower survival in cases with both patterns than with usual sarcomatoid (P = .046). Multivariate analysis identified independent survival factors, including predominant epithelioid component in biphasic mesothelioma (P = .001) and chemotherapy (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS.­: Histologic subtyping in mesothelioma plays a pivotal role in prognosis. Transitional and pleomorphic patterns, even in low percentages, indicate poorer outcomes. This study highlights the need for standardized diagnostic support and suggests the potential utility of histochemical staining in identifying more aggressive morphologic aspects. Recognizing the significance of these patterns can guide treatment decisions and patient care strategies.

2.
Cancers (Basel) ; 16(13)2024 Jun 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39001474

RESUMO

Teratomas are neoplasms arising from germ cells and encompass tissues derived from two or more embryonic germ layers, including ectoderm, mesoderm, and endoderm. These tumours typically localize along the midline or in paramedian positions and can manifest as gonadal (20%) or extragonadal (80%) entities. Although gonadal teratomas are uncommon, they represent the predominant type of gonadal tumour in the paediatric population. They comprise approximately 20-25% of all ovarian tumours in females and about 3-5% of all testicular tumours in males. Ovarian teratomas exhibit a higher incidence in early childhood and adolescence, whereas testicular teratomas are more prevalent during the first three months of life and between the ages of 15 and 19. While the majority of paediatric gonadal teratomas are benign, malignant or mixed variants may also arise, necessitating more aggressive therapeutic interventions.

3.
Mod Pathol ; 37(9): 100561, 2024 Jul 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38996839

RESUMO

Fumarate hydratase (FH)-deficient renal cell carcinomas are rare neoplasms characterized by wide morphologic heterogeneity and pathogenetic mutations in the FH gene. They often show aggressive behavior with rapid diffusion to distant organs, so novel therapeutic scenarios have been explored, including EGFR inhibitors and PD-L1 expression for targeted immunotherapy. Herein, we investigated a series of 11 primary FH-deficient renal cell carcinomas and 7 distant metastases to evaluate tumor heterogeneity even in metastatic sites and estimate the specific spread rates to various organs. Furthermore, the tumors were tested for immunohistochemical PD-L1 expression and EGFR mutations. Most metastatic cases involved the abdominal lymph nodes (4/7; 57%), followed by the peritoneum (3/7; 42%), the liver (2/7; 29%), and the lungs (1/7; 14%). Six metastatic localizations were histologically documented, revealing a morphologic heterogeneous architecture often differing from that of the corresponding primary renal tumor. Peritoneal involvement morphologically resembled a benign reactive mesothelial process or primary peritoneal mesothelioma, thus advocating to perform an accurate immunohistochemical panel, including PAX8 and FH, to reach a proper diagnosis. A pure low-grade succinate dehydrogenase-looking primary FH-deficient renal cell carcinoma was also recorded. As for therapy, significant PD-L1 labeling was found in 60% of primary renal tumors, whereas none of them carried pathogenetic EGFR mutations. Our data show that FH-deficient renal cell carcinoma may be morphologically heterogeneous in metastases as well, which involve the lymph nodes, the liver, and the peritoneum more frequently than other renal tumors. Due to the high frequency of this latter (42%), pathologists should always be concerned about ruling out mesothelial-derived mimickers, and the occurrence of rarer, primary, low-grade-looking types. Finally, contrary to EGFR mutations, PD-L1 expression could be a possible predictive biomarker for the therapy of these tumors.

6.
Diseases ; 11(4)2023 Oct 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37873788

RESUMO

A teratoma is a neoplasm composed of cell populations or tissues that are reminiscent, in their appearance, of normal elements derived from at least two embryonic layers. Fetal mature teratomas are normally benign, cystic, and typically occur along the midline, while they are rare in the posterior mediastinum. Teratomas are frequently solitary; however, they may sometimes be associated with other congenital anomalies and/or with chromosomal abnormalities. Clinically, they are often asymptomatic but can occasionally cause compression symptoms. Prenatal diagnoses are uncommon and made with ultrasonography; differential diagnosis with other congenital conditions is mandatory. We report the case of a 21 weeks of gestational age old fetus with a mature triphyllic fetal cystic teratoma, grade 0, located in the right posterior mediastinum. The tumor presented as a 3 cm wide cystic mass that caused a contralateral shift of the surrounding structures. Histological examination later revealed the presence of derivatives of the three germ layers, such as hyaline cartilage, smooth muscle, nervous tissue, and a respiratory-type epithelium.

7.
Med Lav ; 114(5): e2023038, 2023 Oct 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37878258

RESUMO

The study describes the 466 cases of malignant mesotheliomas (MM) collected by the National Mesothelioma Register (ReNaM) in Italy in the period 1993-2018 relating to subjects with exclusive asbestos exposure in merchant or military navy. The cases among maritime workers represent 1.8% of the total cases with defined exposure registred in the ReNaM, of which 212 cases (45.4%) among merchant maritime workers and 254 cases (54.5%) among navy. The distribution by site of mesothelioma showed 453 (97.2%) MM cases of the pleura, 11 (2.3%) of the peritoneum and 2 (0.4%) of the tunica vaginalis of the testis. With regard to occupational exposure, it was classified as certain in 318 (68.2%) cases, probable in 69 (14.8%) cases and possible in 79 (16.9%) cases. Among the 23 classified jobs, the highest percentages of certain exposures are among naval engineers, motor mechanics, machine captains and sailors. Machine crew accounted for 49.3% of the cases, deck crew for 27.6%. All cases began exposure on board between 1926 and 1988. Seamen were exposed to asbestos while at sea by virtue of living onboard ships and from continual release of asbestos fibers due to the motion of a vessel. Epidemiological surveillance through the ReNaM has allowed us to verify among cases in the maritime, navy and merchant marine sectors, that in the past, subjects were exposed regardless of the ship's department where have provided service therefore all these cases must be considered as occupational diseases.


Assuntos
Amianto , Mesotelioma Maligno , Mesotelioma , Militares , Masculino , Humanos , Mesotelioma/epidemiologia , Mesotelioma/etiologia , Itália/epidemiologia , Amianto/efeitos adversos
8.
Med Lav ; 114(3): e2023025, 2023 Jun 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37309879

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An increased risk of mesothelioma has been reported in various countries for construction workers. The Italian National Mesothelioma Registry, from 1993 to 2018, reported exposure exclusively in the construction sector in 2310 cases. We describe the characteristics of these cases according to job title. METHODS: We converted into 18 groups the original jobs (N=338) as reported by ISTAT codes ('ATECO 91'). The exposure level was attributed at certain, probable and possible in accordance with the qualitative classification of exposure as reported in the Registry guidelines. Descriptive analysis by jobs highlights the total number of subjects for each single job and certain exposure, in descending order, insulator, plumbing, carpenter, mechanic, bricklayer, electrician, machine operator, plasterer, building contractor, painter and labourer. RESULTS: The cases grow for plumbing in the incidence periods 1993-2018, while, as expected, it decreases for insulator. Within each period considered the most numerous cases are always among bricklayers and labourers, these data confirm the prevalence of non-specialised "interchangeable" jobs in Italian construction sector in the past. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the 1992 ban, the construction sector still presents an occupational health prevention challenge, circumstances of exposure to asbestos may still occur due to incomplete compliance with prevention and protection measures.


Assuntos
Indústria da Construção , Mesotelioma Maligno , Mesotelioma , Saúde Ocupacional , Humanos , Sistema de Registros
9.
Cancers (Basel) ; 14(21)2022 Oct 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36358635

RESUMO

The primary cilium (PC) is a sensory organelle present on the cell surface, modulating the activity of many pathways. Dysfunctions in the PC lead to different pathologic conditions including cancer. Hedgehog signaling (Hh) is regulated by PC and the loss of its control has been observed in many cancers, including mesothelioma. Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a fatal cancer of the pleural membranes with poor therapeutic options. Recently, overexpression of the Hh transcriptional activator GL1 has been demonstrated to be associated with poor overall survival (OS) in MPM. However, unlike other cancers, the response to G-protein-coupled receptor smoothened (SMO)/Hh inhibitors is poor, mainly attributable to the lack of markers for patient stratification. For all these reasons, and in particular for the role of PC in the regulation of Hh, we investigated for the first time the status of PC in MPM tissues, demonstrating intra- and inter-heterogeneity in its expression. We also correlated the presence of PC with the activation of the Hh pathway, providing uncovered evidence of a PC-independent regulation of the Hh signaling in MPM. Our study contributes to the understanding MPM heterogeneity, thus helping to identify patients who might benefit from Hh inhibitors.

10.
Cancers (Basel) ; 14(21)2022 Oct 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36358637

RESUMO

Malignant melanoma is a fatal disease that affects all skin sites. Among these, vulvar melanoma (VM) is a rare gynecological condition that accounts for 5% of all vulvar neoplasms. VM primarily affects older Caucasian women and its relationship to sun exposure is undefined. Diagnosis is defined by biopsy but many clinical, dermatoscopic, and confocal microscopic features can guide doctors. The molecular profile is characterized by the KIT mutation, revealed by all of the technologies that are used (classical sequencing, next-generation sequencing, and immunohistochemical staining). BRAF and NRAS mutations are also common in VM. All of these mutations are possible therapeutic targets. Today, surgery remains the first treatment choice for primary VM. The role of neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy is scarce and the treatment of relapses is widely debated.

11.
Front Oncol ; 12: 966063, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35992853

RESUMO

BRCA-1 associated protein 1 (BAP1) tumour predisposition syndrome (TPDS) is a hereditary condition characterised by germline mutation of the tumour suppressor BAP1. This disorder is associated with the development of various benign and malignant tumours, mainly involving the skin, eyes, kidneys, and mesothelium. In this article, we report the case of a man recruited through the Apulia (Southern Italy) Mesothelioma Regional Operational Centre of the National Register of Mesotheliomas, who suffered from uveal melanoma, renal cancer, and mesothelioma, and a familial cluster of BAP1 germline mutations demonstrated by molecular analyses. The family members of the proband developed multiple malignancies. As tumours arising in this context have specific peculiarities in terms of clinical behaviour, identification of this condition through appropriate genetic counselling should be considered for adequate primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention measures for offspring.

12.
Int J Mol Sci ; 23(5)2022 Feb 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35269773

RESUMO

There is evidence that asbestos could play a role in the carcinogenesis of digestive cancers. The presence of asbestos fibres in histological samples from gastric, biliary, colon cancers has been reported, but the mechanism is still controversial. It has been hypothesised that asbestos reaches these sites, especially through contaminated water; however, some experimental studies have shown that the inhaled fibres are mobile, so they can migrate to many organs, directly or via blood and lymph flow. We report four unusual cases of colorectal cancers in patients with a long history of asbestos exposure who also developed synchronous or metachronous mesothelioma. We evaluated the roles of BRCA associated protein-1 (BAP1) and cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) in colon cancer and mesothelioma to support the hypothesis that BAP-1 and CDKN2A are tumour suppressor genes involved in disease progression, recurrence, or death in both digestive cancers and mesothelioma. Potentially, these markers may be used as predictors of worse prognosis, but we also stress the importance of clinical surveillance of exposed patients because asbestos could induce cancer in any organ.


Assuntos
Amianto , Neoplasias Colorretais , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Mesotelioma Maligno , Mesotelioma , Amianto/toxicidade , Neoplasias Colorretais/induzido quimicamente , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/genética , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/etiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/genética , Mesotelioma/induzido quimicamente , Mesotelioma/diagnóstico , Proteínas Supressoras de Tumor/genética , Ubiquitina Tiolesterase/genética
13.
Front Oncol ; 12: 823839, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35223506

RESUMO

Mesothelioma is a rare malignant neoplasm with poor survival. It mainly affects the pleura (90%) but can arise in all serous cavities: peritoneum (5-10%), pericardium and tunica vaginalis testis (<1%). The onset of pleural mesothelioma is strictly related to asbestos exposure with a long latency time. The causal link with asbestos has also been suggested for peritoneal mesothelioma, while the importance of exposure in the onset of pericardial and tunica vaginalis testis mesotheliomas is not well known. Mesothelioma remains an aggressive and fatal disease with a five-year mortality rate higher than 95%. However, new therapeutic approaches based on molecular-targeted and immunomodulatory therapies are being explored but have conflicting results. In this context, the identification of critical targets appears mandatory. Awareness of the molecular and physiological changes leading to the neoplastic degeneration of mesothelial cells and the identification of gene mutations, epigenetic alterations, gene expression profiles and altered pathways could be helpful for selecting targetable mechanisms and molecules. In this review, we aimed to report recent research in the last 20 years focusing on the molecular pathways and prognostic factors in peritoneal mesothelioma and their possible diagnostic and therapeutic implications.

14.
Cancers (Basel) ; 13(19)2021 Sep 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34638359

RESUMO

Lung neuroendocrine neoplasms (lung NENs) are categorised by morphology, defining a classification sometimes unable to reflect ultimate clinical outcome. Subjectivity and poor reproducibility characterise diagnosis and prognosis assessment of all NENs. Here, we propose a machine learning framework for tumour prognosis assessment based on a quantitative, automated and repeatable evaluation of the spatial distribution of cells immunohistochemically positive for the proliferation marker Ki-67, performed on the entire extent of high-resolution whole slide images. Combining features from the fields of graph theory, fractality analysis, stochastic geometry and information theory, we describe the topology of replicating cells and predict prognosis in a histology-independent way. We demonstrate how our approach outperforms the well-recognised prognostic role of Ki-67 Labelling Index on a multi-centre dataset comprising the most controversial lung NENs. Moreover, we show that our system identifies arrangement patterns in the cells positive for Ki-67 that appear independently of tumour subtyping. Strikingly, the subset of these features whose presence is also independent of the value of the Labelling Index and the density of Ki-67-positive cells prove to be especially relevant in discerning prognostic classes. These findings disclose a possible path for the future of grading and classification of NENs.

15.
Cancers (Basel) ; 13(17)2021 Sep 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34503234

RESUMO

Melanoma is reported as the 19th most common cancer worldwide, with estimated age-standardized incidence rates of 2.8-3.1 per 100,000. Although the origin is most frequently cutaneous, mucosal melanoma has been described several times in literature, and despite its rarity (only 1% of all melanomas), increasing attention is being paid to this disease form. Within this subgroup, melanomas of the uropoetic apparatus are a rarity among rarities. Indeed, less than 50 cases of primary melanoma originating from the urinary bladder have been described, and even less originating from the kidney, renal pelvis and urethra. In this work, we present a detailed review of the literature related to this subclass of mucosal melanoma, delve into the biological landscape of this neoplasm and discuss current approaches, future perspectives and potential therapeutic approaches.

16.
Diagn Pathol ; 16(1): 64, 2021 Jul 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34294087

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Diffuse malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (DMPM) is a rare malignant neoplasm with poor survival that shares some similarities with the best-known pleural variant, pleural mesothelioma. The recent European Reference Network on Rare Adult Cancers (EURACAN)/International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) proposals attempted to improve the histological diagnosis and patient risk stratification. Herein, we investigated whether the pathology recommendations and suggestions of the pleural proposals were applicable to diffuse malignant peritoneal mesothelioma. METHODS: Fifty multiple laparoscopic biopsies of DMPM were consecutively collected at the Pathology Unit of the University of Bari. A two-tier system, i.e., low, and high grade, was used to categorize 34 epithelioid DMPMs. Architectural patterns, cytological features and stromal changes were also reported. Immunohistochemistry was performed for BRCA1-associated protein 1 (BAP1), programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), and Ki67, while fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was performed for p16/cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A). RESULTS: High-grade epithelioid mesothelioma, high Ki67, and p16/CDKN2A deletion were significantly associated with short survival (p = 0.004, p < 0.0001, and p = 0.002, respectively). BAP1 loss and PD-L1 negativity were the most common findings. Multivariate analysis revealed that the nuclear grading system and p16 deletion significantly correlated with survival (p = 0.003 each). CONCLUSIONS: The present study examined the prognostic significance of several factors proposed for pleural mesothelioma in an extra pleural site. Notably, the introduction of a grading system may provide better risk stratification in epithelioid DMPM. Ki67, BAP1 and p16/CDKN2A should also be measured whenever possible. A detailed report with all supportive data would allow us to collect sufficient information for use in further studies on larger case series.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares/patologia , Mesotelioma/patologia , Neoplasias Peritoneais/patologia , Neoplasias Pleurais/patologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antígeno B7-H1/metabolismo , Biomarcadores Tumorais/análise , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Mesotelioma/diagnóstico , Mesotelioma Maligno/diagnóstico , Mesotelioma Maligno/patologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias Peritoneais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Pleurais/diagnóstico , Prognóstico
17.
Diagnostics (Basel) ; 11(5)2021 May 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34063676

RESUMO

Mesonephric adenocarcinomas are rare tumors of the female genital tract, thought to arise from embryonic mesonephric remnants, primarily in the cervix and vagina. Conversely, endometrial and ovarian mesonephric adenocarcinomas may have a different pathogenesis, probably originating from transdifferentiated Müllerian carcinomas, as demonstrated by the association of these neoplasms with endometriosis and ovarian serous tumors. For this reason, in the endometrium and in the ovary, they are defined as "mesonephric-like adenocarcinomas". Some cases of mesonephric carcinomas of the female genital tract have been reported to show a sarcomatous component and have been defined as "mesonephric carcinosarcomas", characterized by poor prognosis and high metastatic behavior, but this entity has never been described in the ovary. The case herein presented is of a 74-year-old female with abdominal discomfort and a complex ovarian mass. Histological and immunohistochemical analysis showed features of ovarian mesonephric-like carcinoma combined with a low-grade serous component, in support of the theory of a Müllerian origin of these neoplasms. The tumor also revealed foci of chondrosarcomatous differentiation, never before reported in the ovary, showing a similar immunohistochemical profile to the mesonephric-like elements. This work thus describes the first reported case of ovarian mesonephric-like carcinosarcoma.

18.
Cancers (Basel) ; 13(9)2021 May 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34068638

RESUMO

Primary ovarian mesothelioma is a rare, aggressive neoplastic disease with a poor prognosis. At onset, the tumor is only rarely limited to the ovaries and usually already widespread in the peritoneum. The rarity of this entity and the difficulties differentiating it from either ovarian carcinoma or peritoneal mesothelioma may lead to frequent misdiagnoses and may raise some concerns about its histogenesis. Thus, reporting such rare cases is fundamental to gain greater awareness of this neoplasm and try to answer unsolved questions. Herein, we described four cases of histological diagnoses of ovarian mesothelioma extrapolated by the regional mesothelioma register of Apulia (southern Italy). In all cases, a detailed medical history was collected according to national mesothelioma register guidelines. A broad panel of antibodies was used for immunohistochemistry to confirm the diagnoses. Moreover, ovarian tissue samples were also examined by transmission and scanning electron microscopy, detecting asbestos fibers and talc crystals in two cases. Because of the few cases described, we reviewed the English literature in the Medline database, focusing on articles about ovarian mesothelioma "misclassification", "misdiagnosis", "diagnostic challenge" or "diagnostic pitfall" and on unsolved questions about its histogenesis and possible risk factors.

19.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 532, 2021 Jun 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34092232

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Legionella bacteria is a common cause of pneumonia, but the infection may affect several organs in the most serious cases. A systemic involvement ab initio could be non-specific, leading to a diagnostic misinterpretation. CASE PRESENTATION: A 33-year-old woman had been complaining of mental confusion, restlessness, aggressiveness, and, subsequently, hirsutism. After 3 weeks, the patient developed pneumonia and died during the hospitalization. The autopsy examination revealed a multi-organ necrotizing exudative disease involving the lung, the heart and the brain. The microbiological tests of tracheal aspirate were positive for Legionella pneumophila serotype 1. CONCLUSION: The Legionella infection may show a proteiform clinical course and an extra-pulmonary manifestation may be the first sign of the disease. Herein, we report a case of Legionella infection in a young female, presenting with non-specific neurological symptoms and hirsutism at onset, misdiagnosed as a metabolic disease.


Assuntos
Hirsutismo/microbiologia , Legionella pneumophila , Doença dos Legionários/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Bacteriana/microbiologia , Adulto , Autopsia , Encéfalo , Erros de Diagnóstico , Evolução Fatal , Feminino , Humanos , Doença dos Legionários/complicações , Pulmão , Transtornos Mentais/microbiologia
20.
Infect Dis Model ; 6: 212-221, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33398249

RESUMO

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the early stage in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic curve. On the basis of an exponential decay model (EDM), we provide estimations of the WR in four-time intervals from February 27 to April 07, 2020. By calibrating the parameters of the EDM to the reported data in Hubei Province of China, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak. We compare the EDM applied to WR and the Gompertz model, which is based on exponential decay and is often used to estimate cumulative events. Specifically, we assess the performance of each model to short-term forecast of the epidemic, and to predict the final epidemic size. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the model applied to data from February 27 until the 17th of March estimate that the cumulative number of infected in Italy could reach 131,280 (with a credibility interval 71,415-263,501) by April 25 (credibility interval April 12 to May 3). With the data available until the 24st of March the peak date should be reached on May 3 (April 23 to May 23) with 197,179 cumulative infections expected (130,033-315,269); with data available until the 31st of March the peak should be reached on May 4 (April 25 to May 18) with 202,210 cumulative infections expected (155.235-270,737); with data available until the 07st of April the peak should be reached on May 3 (April 26 to May 11) with 191,586 (160,861-232,023) cumulative infections expected. Based on the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), cumulated infections forecasts provided by the EDM applied to WR performed better across all scenarios than the Gompertz model. An exponential decay model applied to the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate appears to be useful in estimating the number of cases and peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and the model was more reliable in the exponential growth phase.

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