Climate and landscape changes as driving forces for future range shift in southern populations of the European badger.

Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Change (HIREC), particularly climate change and habitat conversion, affects species distributions worldwide. Here, we aimed to (i) assess the factors that determine range patterns of European badger (Meles meles) at the southwestern edge of their distribution and (ii) forecast the possible impacts of future climate and landcover changes on those patterns. We surveyed 272 cells of 5 × 5 km, to assess badger presence and confirmed its occurrence in 95 cells (35%). Our models estimate that badger's presence is promoted by the occurrence of herbaceous fields and shrublands (5%-10%), and low proportions of Eucalyptus plantations (<~15%). Regions with >50% of podzols and eruptive rocks, higher sheep/goat density (>4 ind/km2), an absence of cattle, intermediate precipitation regimes (800-1000 mm/year) and mild mean temperatures (15-16 °C) are also more likely to host badgers. We predict a decrease in favourability of southern areas for hosting badgers under forecasted climate and landcover change scenarios, which may lead to a northwards retraction of the species southern distribution limit, but the overall landscape favourability is predicted to slightly increase. The forecasted retraction may affect community functional integrity, as its role in southern ecological networks will be vacant.

Disease-mediated bottom-up regulation: An emergent virus affects a keystone prey, and alters the dynamics of trophic webs.

Emergent diseases may alter the structure and functioning of ecosystems by creating new biotic interactions and modifying existing ones, producing cascading processes along trophic webs. Recently, a new variant of the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV2 or RHDVb) arguably caused widespread declines in a keystone prey in Mediterranean ecosystems - the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We quantitatively assess the impact of RHDV2 on natural rabbit populations and in two endangered apex predator populations: the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) and the Spanish Imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti). We found 60-70% declines in rabbit populations, followed by decreases of 65.7% in Iberian lynx and 45.5% in Spanish Imperial eagle fecundities. A revision of the web of trophic interactions among rabbits and their dependent predators suggests that RHDV2 acts as a keystone species, and may steer Mediterranean ecosystems to management-dependent alternative states, dominated by simplified mesopredator communities. This model system stresses the importance of diseases as functional players in the dynamics of trophic webs.

Towards effective culvert design: monitoring seasonal use and behavior by Mediterranean mesocarnivores.

Drainage culverts are known to be used by a diverse number of species. To date, most studies looking at culvert usage have been restricted to the dry season. This seasonal bias has limited our understanding of how different species respond to culverts and, consequently, our ability to find effective ways to promote the use of culverts as aids to species movement. The main goal of this study was to examine the role of highway culverts for mesocarnivores throughout the year. We addressed (1) the seasonality of culvert use, (2) the relative importance of culvert structure, highway features, and surrounding landscape on culvert use, (3) the influence of the water depth and cover on culvert use, and (4) the effect of culvert structure on individual behavior. Fifteen culverts were monitored along 2 highways in southern Portugal using video-surveillance cameras and marble dust for 10 consecutive days per season. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine which factors most affected the culvert use and behavior by mesocarnivores. Our results highlight the effect of seasonality and water on culvert use. Culvert use was positively related with species activity throughout the year. All species (except otters (Lutra lutra)) were less likely to use culverts that contained water more than 3 cm deep or covering more than 70 % of the culvert base. Based on our results, future surveys and culvert retrofit design should address (1) the importance of seasonality in the interpretation of results and (2) the complementarity of culvert-specific features (water, ledges, and naturalization).