Model analysis and data validation of structured prevention and control interruptions of emerging infectious diseases.

The design of optimized non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is critical to the effective control of emergent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, A/H1N1 and COVID-19 and to ensure that numbers of hospitalized cases do not exceed the carrying capacity of medical resources. To address this issue, we formulated a classic SIR model to include a close contact tracing strategy and structured prevention and control interruptions (SPCIs). The impact of the timing of SPCIs on the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals and on the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas (i.e. implementing a dynamic zero-case policy) were analyzed numerically and theoretically. These analyses revealed that to minimize the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals, the optimal time to initiate SPCIs is when they can control the peak value of a second rebound of the epidemic to be equal to the first peak value. More individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention during SPCIs. The longer the duration of the intervention and the stronger the contact tracing intensity during SPCIs, the more effective they are in shortening the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas. The dynamic evolution of the number of isolated and non-isolated individuals, including two peaks and long tail patterns, have been confirmed by various real data sets of multiple-wave COVID-19 epidemics in China. Our results provide important theoretical support for the adjustment of NPI strategies in relation to a given carrying capacity of medical resources.

Nexus between energy efficiency, green investment, urbanization and environmental quality: Evidence from MENA region.

Environmental protection holds a paramount position in the pursuit of sustainable development. The existing body of literature has extensively examined various driving forces for environmental enhancement, including renewable energy sources, innovation, and governmental interventions. This study aims to assess the impact of green investment, energy efficiency, and urbanization on achieving environmental sustainability in the MENA region during the period 2004-2019. A comprehensive set of econometric tools has been employed to achieve this goal, including the CADF and CIPS panel unit root tests, error correction-based panel cointegration analysis, Cross-sectional ARDL, and asymmetric ARDL models. The key findings of this research are as follows: Cross-sectional dependency and homogeneity tests demonstrated that the research units shared common dynamics and heterogeneity properties. The stationarity tests based on CIPS and CADF indicated that all variables became stationary after the first differencing. The panel cointegration analysis established a long-term relationship between green investment (GI), energy efficiency (EE), urbanization (UR), and environmental sustainability (ES) in MENA nations. Empirical model estimations using Cross-sectional ARDL revealed significant contributions of GI, EE, and UR to ES in the long and short run. The asymmetry assessment uncovered a nonlinear relationship between the explanatory and dependent variables, both in the long and short run. Specifically, the asymmetric coefficients of GI, EE, and UR displayed negative statistical significance at the 1% level, highlighting their significant roles in promoting environmental sustainability. In light of these findings, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers to formulate strategies to further environmental sustainability in the MENA region.

The helix of CO2, household income, and oil pricing under the assumption of Keynesian consumption function: A policy-mix scenario of oil-importing South Asia for SDGs-2030.

The purpose of this study is to explore energy prices and their impact on household consumption under the condition of Keynesian consumption theory in South Asian countries over the 1995-2020 periods. By employing the panel ordinary least square model estimation technique, the study attempted to find the relationship between household income and consumption under the theory of Keynesian consumption function. Furthermore, we investigated the relationship between household consumption and environmental sustainability, policy mix variables, and energy pricing. First of all, this study confirms the existence of Keynesian consumption theory in these economies of South Asia. Furthermore, energy pricing, environmental sustainability, and inflation rate are the factors that inducing toward high household consumption in South Asia. Considering the policy mix factors, inflation rate contribution positively while tax rate inducing this consumer for low household consumption. Based on the empirical analysis, this study suggested some parameters to these Asian economies particularly and other similar economies generally.

[Detection effect of an automatic identification system of Schistosoma japonicum miracidia].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of an automatic identification system of Schistosoma japonicum miracidia, and compare it with the traditional eye detection method in the simulation field. METHODS: A total of 260 fecal samples were collected from schistosomiasis non-endemic areas, and the test sample bottles containing schistosome miracidia were prepared according to different experimental needs. Thirty fecal samples for the sensitivity test were separately added with five fresh miracidia per sample, and then the mixed samples were detected by two experienced technicians (with more than 15 years' traditional test experience) or the automatic system. The positive detection rates were compared between the two methods. Thirty fecal samples for repetition test were separately added with ten fresh miracidia per sample, and then the mixed samples were detected separately with the automatic identification system by two experienced technicians. The results were compared between two persons. The two methods including the automatic identification system and the traditional eye detection method were carried out blindly with totally 200 samples in the simulation field. There were three groups (each with 30 samples) : Group 1 with more than 21 fresh miracidia, Group 2 with 6 to 20 fresh miracidia, and Group 3 with 1 to 5 fresh miracidia. The other 110 samples were as a negative group. The detection time, accuracy, missed detection rate, and false detection rate of the two methods were statistically compared. RESULTS: The positive detection rates of the 30 positive samples were 43.33% and 33.33% by the two technicians with the traditional eye detection method, respectively, while the detection rate was 80.00% by the automatic identification system, and the difference was statistically significant (χ2 = 7.05, χ2 = 12.97, both P < 0.01). Thirty positive samples were detected by the two technicians using the same automatic identification system, and the positive detection rates of the two were 96.67% and 86.67%, respectively, with no significant difference (χ2 = 0.27, P > 0.05). The experiments showed that the correct detection rate of the positive samples was 98.00% by the automatic identification system, which was higher than 79.75% by the traditional eye detection method. The detection time of the automatic identification system was shortened by half compared with that of the traditional eye detection method. The missed detection rate, and false detection rate of the automatic identification system were 2.22% and 1.82%, respectively, which were much lower than 35.56% and 7.73% of the traditional eye detection method. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the traditional eye detection method, the automatic identification system of S. japonicum miracidia has the advantages of high sensitivity, good repeatability, short detection time, high accuracy, low missed detection rate, and low false detection rate. It can be used in the field and clinical detection in replacement of the traditional eye detection method.

[Investigation of Toxoplasma gondii infection among special populations in Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection among special populations in Nanjing City, so as to provide the reference for formulating the interventions for the prevention and control of T. gondii infections in this population. METHODS: The HIV/AIDS patients, tumor patients, pregnant women, and people with livestock and poultry breeding or processing works were selected as the study subjects from September to November 2015. The venous blood samples were collected from each participant for detecting IgG and IgM antibodies against T. gondii by ELISA. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of T. gondii infection was 10.2% in the study subjects in Nanjing City. The T. gondii infection rates were 12.2%, 11.3%, 4.0%, and 13.0% among the HIV/AIDS patients, tumor patients, pregnant women, and people with livestock and poultry breeding or processing works, respectively, and there was no statistically significant difference among the four groups (χ2 = 5.668, P = 0.130). The prevalence of T. gondii infection was higher in men than in women (15.3% vs. 5.8%; χ2 = 10.213, P = 0.001), and there were significant differences in the prevalence of T. gondii infection in terms of gender (χ2 = 9.501, P = 0.023), education levels (χ2 = 9.850, P = 0.043) or occupations (χ2 = 8.983, P = 0.062). CONCLUSIONS: The infection rate of T. gondii among the special population in Nanjing City is high. Therefore, the health education intervention should be strengthened in the follow-up work for the special population.

[Analysis of human intestinal nematode infections in Nanjing City from 2006 to 2015].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological situation of human intestinal nematode infections in Nanjing City from 2006 to 2015, so as to provide the reference for formulating prevention and control measures. METHODS: The surveillance data of human intestinal nematode infections in Nanjing City from 2006 to 2015 were collected and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2015, 98 804 person-times of residents were surveyed in Nanjing City, and 465 person-times of residents were detected with intestinal nematode infections. The highest infection rate was in 2006 (1.97%), and the lowest in 2013 and 2015 (both 0.05%). Moreover, the positive rate of human intestinal nematode infections showed a significantly declining trend in total ( χ2 = 552.19, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, the numbers of Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm and Trichuris trichura cases were 329, 98 and 25 respectively, and the infection rates were 0.33%, 0.10% and 0.03% respectively. Among them, 443 cases had mild infection intensity (98.66%). There were 462 cases of single-infection (99.35%), and 3 of co-infection of two parasites (0.65%). From 2006 to 2015, 92 539 person-times of children under 12 years old were surveyed for Enterobius vermicularis infection and 352 cases were detected with E. vermicularis infection. Moreover, the positive rate showed a significantly decreasing trend in total (χ2 = 147.94, P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The control effect of human intestinal nematode infections in Nanjing City is remarkable. However, the surveillance and health education in key groups still should be strengthened, and the prevention and control programs should be adjusted promptly to further consolidating the effectiveness of intestinal nematode disease prevention and control.

[Epidemiological analysis of malaria prevalence in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2015].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of malaria in Nanjing City, so as to provide the evidence for further formulating and adjusting the malaria prevention and control strategy. METHODS: The data of malaria situation, malaria cases and epidemiological investigations were collected from the Internet Reporting System in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2015 and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: A total of 137 confirmed malaria cases were reported in Nanjing City from 2010 to 2015, including 102 falciparum malaria cases (74.45%), 33 vivax malaria cases (24.09%), one ovale malaria case (0.73%) and one quartan malaria case (0.73%). Among the 137 malaria cases, 126 cases (91.97%) were imported from foreign countries, 2 cases (1.46%) were infected locally, and nine cases (6.57%) were imported from other provinces in China. Among the 126 overseas imported cases, 117 cases were imported from African countries and 9 from Asian countries. These malaria cases were majorly young men working as migrant workers, laborers and technical persons. About 19.30% of the cases went to hospital on onset day, and 55.65% were confirmed by medical institutions as malaria in the same day. The majority of diagnosis institutions were municipal hospitals (74.45%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of malaria cases in Nanjing City is declining year by year. The local infections are eliminating gradually. However, the situation of imported malaria from overseas is still serious. Therefore, the surveillance work and health education still should be strengthened, so as to reduce the risk of imported malaria.