Effect of 20 mph speed limits on traffic injuries in Edinburgh, UK: a natural experiment and modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited research evaluating 20 mph speed limit interventions, and long-term assessments are seldom conducted either globally or within the UK. This study evaluated the impact of the phased 20 mph speed limit implementation on road traffic collisions and casualties in the City of Edinburgh, UK over approximately 3 years post implementation. METHODS: We used four sets of complementary analyses for collision and casualty rates. First, we compared rates for road segments changing to 20 mph against those at 30 mph. Second, we compared rates for the seven implementation zones in the city against paired control zones. Third, we investigated citywide casualty rate trends using generalised additive model. Finally, we used simulation modelling to predict casualty rate changes based on changes in observed speeds. RESULTS: We found a 10% (95% CI -19% to 0%) greater reduction in casualties (8% for collisions) for streets that changed to 20 mph compared with those staying at 30 mph. However, the reduction was similar, 8% (95% CI -22% to 5%) for casualties (10% collisions), in streets that were already at 20 mph. In the implementation zones, we found a 20% (95% CI -22% to -8%) citywide reduction in casualties (22% for collisions) compared with control zones; this compared with a predicted 10% (95% CI -18% to -2%) reduction in injuries based on the changes in speed and traffic volume. Citywide casualties dropped 17% (95% CI 13% to 22%) 3 years post implementation, accounting for trend. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the introduction of 20 mph limits resulted in a reduction in collisions and casualties 3 years post implementation. However, the effect exceeded expectations from changes in speed alone, possibly due to a wider network effect.

Prediabetes, participation in the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme, and associations with COVID-19-related mortality: A whole population study.

AIMS: To assess the effects of non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH, also known as pre-diabetes), including the impact of the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP), on COVID-19-related mortality during the pandemic. METHODS: This study included all 61,438,225 individuals registered with General Practices in England and alive on 1st March 2020. We assessed COVID-19-related mortality in the 2,290,280(3.7 %) individuals with diagnosed NDH between March 2020 and February 2022 compared to those without diagnosed NDH or diabetes using Cox regression to adjust for demographic factors and cardiovascular comorbidities. Individuals with diagnosed NDH were further sub-categorised based on their contact with the NHS DPP (N = 376,590). Analyses were stratified by age (years) (<50, 50-69 and ≥ 70). RESULTS: There were 158,070 COVID-19 deaths; 17,280(11 %) for people with diagnosed NDH. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.95(0.93-0.96),p < 0.001 for those with diagnosed NDH compared to those without diagnosed diabetes or NDH. By age (years), HRs were, 2.53(2.23-2.88),p < 0.001 for < 50, 1.29(1.24-1.35),p < 0.001 for 50-69 and 0.87(0.85-0.89),p < 0.001 for ≥ 70. NHS DPP attendance was associated with lower COVID-19 mortality with a dose-response relationship with engagement. CONCLUSIONS: Younger people with diagnosed NDH were at higher relative risk of COVID-19 mortality. Attendance at the NHS DPP was associated with significantly lower COVID-19-related mortality.

Changes in the number of new takeaway food outlets associated with adoption of management zones around schools: A natural experimental evaluation in England.

By the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) across England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones") around schools as a means to curb proliferation of new takeaways. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we evaluated the impact of management zones on takeaway retail, including unintended displacement of takeaways to areas immediately beyond management zones, and impacts on chain fast-food outlets. We used uncontrolled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes from up to six years pre- and post-adoption of takeaway management zones around schools. We evaluated three outcomes: mean number of new takeaways within management zones (and by three identified sub-types: full management, town centre exempt and time management zones); mean number on the periphery of management zones (i.e. within an additional 100 m of the edge of zones); and presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones. For 26 LAs, we observed an overall decrease in the number of new takeaways opening within management zones. Six years post-intervention, we observed 0.83 (95% CI -0.30, -1.03) fewer new outlets opening per LA than would have been expected in absence of the intervention, equivalent to an 81.0% (95% CI -29.1, -100) reduction in the number of new outlets. Cumulatively, 12 (54%) fewer new takeaways opened than would have been expected over the six-year post-intervention period. When stratified by policy type, effects were most prominent for full management zones and town centre exempt zones. Estimates of intervention effects on numbers of new takeaways on the periphery of management zones, and on the presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones, did not meet statistical significance. Our findings suggest that management zone policies were able to demonstrably curb the proliferation of new takeaways. Modelling studies are required to measure the possible population health impacts associated with this change.

Point-of-choice kilocalorie labelling practices in large, out-of-home food businesses: a preobservational versus post observational study of labelling practices following implementation of The Calorie Labelling (Out of Home Sector) (England) Regulations 2021.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: On 6 April 2022, the UK government implemented mandatory kilocalorie (kcal) labelling regulations for food and drink products sold in the out-of-home food sector (OHFS) in England. Previous assessments of kcal labelling practices in the UK OHFS found a low prevalence of voluntary implementation and poor compliance with labelling recommendations. This study aimed to examine changes in labelling practices preimplementation versus post implementation of mandatory labelling regulations in 2022. METHODS: In August-December 2021 (preimplementation) and August-November 2022 (post implementation), large OHFS businesses (250 or more employees) subject to labelling regulations were visited. At two time points, a researcher visited the same 117 food outlets (belonging to 90 unique businesses) across four local authorities in England. Outlets were rated for compliance with government regulations for whether kcal labelling was provided at any or all point of choice, provided for all eligible food and drink items, provided per portion for sharing items, if labelling was clear and legible and if kcal reference information was displayed. RESULTS: There was a significant increase (21% preimplementation vs 80% post implementation, OR=40.98 (95% CI 8.08 to 207.74), p<0.001) in the proportion of outlets providing any kcal labelling at point-of-choice post implementation. Only 15% of outlets met all labelling compliance criteria post implementation, with a minority of outlets not presenting labelling in a clear (33%) or legible (29%) way. CONCLUSION: The number of large businesses in the OHFS providing kcal labelling increased following the implementation of mandatory labelling regulations. However, around one-fifth of eligible outlets sampled were not providing kcal labelling 4-8 months after the regulations came into force, and the majority of businesses only partially complied with government guidance. More effective enforcement may be required to further improve kcal labelling practices in the OHFS in England. PREREGISTRATION: Study protocol and analysis strategy preregistered on Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/pfnm6/).

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis.

Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets ("takeaways") is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones"), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of two interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: an economic evaluation of the 48-month PROPELS randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Physical activity (PA) is protective against type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, data on pragmatic long-term interventions to reduce the risk of developing T2D via increased PA are lacking. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic PA intervention in a multiethnic population at high risk of T2D. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We adapted the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention model, using the PROPELS trial data and analyses of the NAVIGATOR trial. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention (Walking Away (WA) and Walking Away Plus (WA+)) versus usual care and compared with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's willingness-to-pay of £20 000-£30 000 per QALY gained. We conducted scenario analyses on the outcomes of the PROPELS trial data and a threshold analysis to determine the change in step count that would be needed for the interventions to be cost-effective. RESULTS: Estimated lifetime costs for usual care, WA, and WA+ were £22 598, £23 018, and £22 945, respectively. Estimated QALYs were 9.323, 9.312, and 9.330, respectively. WA+ was estimated to be more effective and cheaper than WA. WA+ had an ICER of £49 273 per QALY gained versus usual care. In none of our scenario analyses did either WA or WA+ have an ICER below £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis suggested that a PA intervention costing the same as WA+ would have an ICER below £20 000/QALY if it were to achieve an increase in step count of 500 steps per day which was 100% maintained at 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: We found that neither WA nor WA+ was cost-effective at a limit of £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis showed that interventions to increase step count can be cost-effective at this limit if they achieve greater long-term maintenance of effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN registration: ISRCTN83465245: The PRomotion Of Physical activity through structuredEducation with differing Levels of ongoing Support for those with pre-diabetes (PROPELS)https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN83465245.

The relationship of within-individual and between-individual variation in mental health with bodyweight: An exploratory longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Poor mental health is associated with obesity, but existing studies are either cross-sectional or have long time periods between measurements of mental health and weight. It is, therefore, unclear how small fluctuations in mental wellbeing within individuals predict bodyweight over short time periods, e.g. within the next month. Studying this could identify modifiable determinants of weight changes and highlight opportunities for early intervention. METHODS: 2,133 UK adults from a population-based cohort completed monthly mental health and weight measurements using a mobile app over a period of 6-9 months. We used random intercept regression models to examine longitudinal associations of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms and stress with subsequent weight. In sub-group analyses, we included interaction terms of mental health variables with baseline characteristics. Mental health variables were split into "between-individual" measurements (= the participant's median score across all timepoints) and "within-individual" measurements (at each timepoint, the difference between the participant's current score and their median). RESULTS: Within-individual variation in depressive symptoms predicted subsequent weight (0.045kg per unit of depressive symptom severity, 95% CI 0.021-0.069). We found evidence of a moderation effect of baseline BMI on the association between within-individual fluctuation in depressive symptoms and subsequent weight: The association was only apparent in those with overweight/obesity, and it was stronger in those with obesity than those with overweight (BMI<25kg/m2: 0.011kg per unit of depressive symptom severity [95% CI -0.017 to 0.039]; BMI 25-29.9kg/m2: 0.052kg per unit of depressive symptom severity [95%CI 0.010-0.094kg]; BMI≥30kg/m2: 0.071kg per unit of depressive symptom severity [95%CI 0.013-0.129kg]). We found no evidence for other interactions, associations of stress and anxiety with weight, or for a reverse direction of association. CONCLUSION: In this exploratory study, individuals with overweight or obesity were more vulnerable to weight gain following higher-than-usual (for that individual) depressive symptoms than individuals with a BMI<25kg/m2.

Incidence of Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease, Genetic Susceptibility, and Grip Strength Among Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Grip strength has prognostic value for aging-related health outcomes. Whether the associations of grip strength with the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) vary by the genetic risk of AD and related dementias (ADD) is unknown. METHODS: This study included 148 659 older adults of white British ancestry (aged ≥60 years) participating in UK Biobank with no dementia, and self-reported poor health status at baseline. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for ADD were calculated based on 64 genetic variants. Grip strength was measured by hand dynamometers. RESULTS: The hazard ratios (HR) of dementia (n = 4 963) and AD (n = 2 373) for high genetic risk of ADD were 2.36 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.15-2.59) and 3.00 (95% CI: 2.61-3.44), respectively, compared with low genetic risk. Compared with the bottom tertile of grip strength, the top tertile of grip strength had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.64-0.74) for incident dementia, and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66-0.82) for incident AD, after adjustment for confounders and PRS for ADD. The risk of dementia and AD was lower with the top grip strength tertile within each level of genetic susceptibility to ADD. There was no evidence of multiplicative interaction between grip strength and genetic susceptibility to ADD for both dementia (p value: .241) and AD (p value: .314). CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with higher PRS for ADD are at higher risk of developing dementia and AD. The risk of dementia and AD was lower in individuals with higher grip strength, regardless of their level of genetic susceptibility to ADD.

Replacing device-measured sedentary time with physical activity is associated with lower risk of coronary heart disease regardless of genetic risk.

BACKGROUND: Excess sedentary time (ST) is recognized as an important modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, whether the associations of genetic susceptibility with CHD incidence can be modified by replacing wearable-device-measured ST with physical activity (PA) is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations of wearable-device-measured ST replaced by PA with incident CHD across strata of genetic susceptibility. METHODS: This study included 77,500 White British (57% female) with valid wrist-worn accelerometry and without prevalent CHD/stroke from UK Biobank. Genetic susceptibility to CHD was quantified through weighted polygenic risk scores for CHD based on 300 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Wrist-worn accelerometer data were used to derive ST, light PA, and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). RESULTS: Reallocation of 60 min/day of ST into the same amount of MVPA was associated with approximately 9% lower relative risk of CHD for all participants and across strata of genetic risk: replacement of 1 min/day of ST associated with <1% lower relative risk of CHD. No evidence of interaction (p: 0.784) was found between genetic risk and ST for CHD risk. Reallocating 60 min/day of ST into the same MVPA time was associated with greater absolute CHD risk reductions at high genetic risk (0.27%) versus low genetic risk (0.15%). CONCLUSIONS: Replacing any amount of ST with an equal amount of MVPA time is associated with a lower relative risk of CHD, irrespective of genetic susceptibility to CHD. Reductions in CHD absolute risk for replacing ST with MVPA are greater at high genetic risk versus low genetic risk.

Short-term psychosocial outcomes of adding a non-contrast abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan to the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate psychological, social, and financial outcomes amongst individuals undergoing a non-contrast abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan to screen for kidney cancer and other abdominal malignancies alongside the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The Yorkshire Kidney Screening Trial (YKST) is a feasibility study of adding a non-contrast abdominal CT scan to the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening. A total of 500 participants within the YKST, comprising all who had an abnormal CT scan and a random sample of one-third of those with a normal scan between 14/03/2022 and 24/08/2022 were sent a questionnaire at 3 and 6 months. Outcomes included the Psychological Consequences Questionnaire (PCQ), the short-form of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and the EuroQoL five Dimensions five Levels scale (EQ-5D-5L). Data were analysed using regression adjusting for participant age, sex, socioeconomic status, education, baseline quality of life (EQ-5D-5L), and ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 380 (76%) participants returned questionnaires at 3 months and 328 (66%) at 6 months. There was no difference in any outcomes between participants with a normal scan and those with abnormal scans requiring no further action. Individuals requiring initial further investigations or referral had higher scores on the negative PCQ than those with normal scans at 3 months (standardised mean difference 0.28 sd, 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.54; P = 0.044). The difference was greater in those with anxiety or depression at baseline. No differences were seen at 6 months. CONCLUSION: Screening for kidney cancer and other abdominal malignancies using abdominal CT alongside the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening is unlikely to cause significant lasting psychosocial or financial harm to participants with incidental findings.

The moderating and mediating role of eating behaviour traits in acceptance and commitment therapy-based weight management interventions: protocol for an individual participant data meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Precision medicine approaches to obesity aim to maximise treatment effectiveness by matching weight management interventions (WMIs) to characteristics of individuals, such as eating behaviour traits (EBTs). Acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT)-based WMIs may address EBTs such as emotional and uncontrolled eating more effectively than standard interventions, and might be most effective in people with high levels of these traits. However, few studies have examined this directly. We will examine (a) whether ACT-based interventions are more effective for people with certain levels of EBTs (ie, moderation) and (b) whether ACT-based interventions operate through changes in EBTs (ie, mediation). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of Individual Participant Data guidance. We will include studies on ACT-based WMIs that assessed EBTs in people with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2. We identified studies by screening studies included in a previous review of third wave cognitive behavioural interventions, and updating the search to 20 June 2022. We will request IPD from eligible published and unpublished studies. We will harmonise and re-analyse data using a two-stage random effects meta-analysis pooling within-trial interactions to investigate moderating effects and using a one-stage simultaneous equation model to examine mediating effects. We will assess the risk of bias in included studies using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool 2 and the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been obtained from the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee (Application No: PRE.2023.121). Data sharing will follow data transfer agreements and coauthorship will be offered to investigators contributing data. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conferences and will contribute to the lead author's PhD thesis. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022359691.

Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks 1 year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series. PARTICIPANTS: Households reporting their purchasing to a market research company (average weekly n=22 091), March 2014 to March 2019. INTERVENTION: A two-tiered tax levied on soft drinks manufacturers, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol and confectionery purchased per household per week 1 year after implementation. RESULTS: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual, purchased volume of high tier drinks decreased by 140.8 mL (95% CI 104.3 to 177.3 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 37.8% (28.0% to 47.6%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 16.2 g (13.5 to 18.8 g), or 42.6% (35.6% to 49.6%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 170.5 mL (154.5 to 186.5 mL) or 85.8% (77.8% to 93.9%), with an 11.5 g (9.1 to 13.9 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 87.8% (69.2% to 106.4%). When all soft drinks were combined irrespective of levy tier or eligibility, the volume of drinks purchased increased by 188.8 mL (30.7 to 346.9 mL) per household per week, or 2.6% (0.4% to 4.7%), but sugar decreased by 8.0 g (2.4 to 13.6 g), or 2.7% (0.8% to 4.5%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not increase. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, 1 year after implementation, volume of all soft drinks purchased combined increased by 189 mL, or 2.6% per household per week. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 8 g, or 2.7%, lower per household per week. Further studies should determine whether and how apparently small effect sizes translate into health outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18042742.

Adherence to a healthy lifestyle, genetic susceptibility to abdominal obesity, cardiometabolic risk markers, and risk of coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about whether the association between genetic susceptibility to high waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), a measure of abdominal obesity, and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) is modified by adherence to a healthy lifestyle. OBJECTIVES: To explore the interplay of genetic susceptibility to high WHR and adherence to a healthy lifestyle on incident CHD. METHODS: This study included 282,316 white British individuals from the UK Biobank study. Genetic risk for high WHR was estimated in the form of weighted polygenic risk scores (PRSs), calculated based on 156 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Lifestyle scores were calculated based on 5 healthy lifestyle factors: regular physical activity, no current smoking, a healthy diet, <3 times/wk of alcohol consumption and 7-9 h/d of sleep. Incident CHD (n = 11,635) was accrued over a median 13.8 y of follow-up, and 12 individual cardiovascular disease risk markers assessed at baseline. RESULTS: Adhering to a favorable lifestyle (4-5 healthy factors) was associated with a 25% (hazard ratio: 0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.81) lower hazard of CHD compared with an unfavorable lifestyle (0-1 factor), independent of PRS for high WHR. Estimated 12-y absolute risk of CHD was lower for a favorable lifestyle at high genetic risk (1.73%) and medium genetic risk (1.67%) than for an unfavorable lifestyle at low genetic risk (2.08%). Adhering to a favorable lifestyle was associated with healthier levels of cardiovascular disease risk markers (except random glucose and high-density lipoprotein), independent of PRS for high WHR. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who have high or medium genetic risk of abdominal obesity but adhere to a healthy lifestyle may have a lower risk of developing CHD, compared with those who have low genetic risk and an unhealthy lifestyle. Future clinical trials of lifestyle modification could be implemented for individuals at high genetic risk of abdominal obesity for the primary prevention of CHD events.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the Era of Minimally Invasive Surgery for Treatment of Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Minimally invasive (laparoscopic and robotic) surgery (MIS) for colorectal cancer is associated with improved outcomes. We sought to characterize possible disparities in surgical approach and outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, colorectal adenocarcinoma cases among non-Hispanic white (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and Hispanic patients were identified using the National Cancer Database (2010-2017). Logistic and Poisson regressions, generalized logit models, and Cox proportional hazards were used to assess outcomes, with reclassification of surgery type if converted to open. RESULTS: NHB patients were less likely to undergo robotic surgery. After multivariable analysis, NHB patients were 6% less likely, while Hispanic patients were 12% more likely to undergo a MIS approach. Lymph node retrieval was higher (> 1.3% more, p < 0.0001) and length of stay was shorter (> 17% shorter, p < 0.0001) for MIS approaches. Unplanned readmission was lower for MIS colon cancer operations compared with open operations, but not for rectal cancer. Race/ethnicity-adjusted risk of death was lower with MIS approaches for colon as well as rectal cancer. After adjusting for surgery type, risk of death was 12% lower for NHB and 35% lower for Hispanic patients compared with NHW patients. Hispanic patients had 21% lower risk of death, while NHB patients had 12% higher risk of death than NHW patients with rectal cancer, after adjusting for surgery type. CONCLUSIONS: Racial/ethnic disparities exist in utilization of MIS for colorectal cancer treatment, disproportionately affecting NHB patients. Since MIS has the potential to improve outcomes, suboptimal access may contribute to harmful and thus unacceptable disparities in survivorship.

Interaction between plasma phospholipid odd-chain fatty acids and GAD65 autoantibodies on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Islet autoimmunity may progress to adult-onset diabetes. We investigated whether circulating odd-chain fatty acids (OCFA) 15:0 and 17:0, which are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, interact with autoantibodies against GAD65 (GAD65Ab) on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes. METHODS: We used the European EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study including 11,124 incident adult-onset diabetes cases and a subcohort of 14,866 randomly selected individuals. Adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox regression estimated HRs and 95% CIs of diabetes in relation to 1 SD lower plasma phospholipid 15:0 and/or 17:0 concentrations or their main contributor, dairy intake, among GAD65Ab-negative and -positive individuals. Interactions between tertiles of OCFA and GAD65Ab status were estimated by proportion attributable to interaction (AP). RESULTS: Low concentrations of OCFA, particularly 17:0, were associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset diabetes in both GAD65Ab-negative (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.48, 1.64]) and GAD65Ab-positive (HR 1.69 [95% CI 1.34, 2.13]) individuals. The combination of low 17:0 and high GAD65Ab positivity vs high 17:0 and GAD65Ab negativity conferred an HR of 7.51 (95% CI 4.83, 11.69), with evidence of additive interaction (AP 0.25 [95% CI 0.05, 0.45]). Low dairy intake was not associated with diabetes incidence in either GAD65Ab-negative (HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.94, 1.02]) or GAD65Ab-positive individuals (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.79, 1.18]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Low plasma phospholipid 17:0 concentrations may promote the progression from GAD65Ab positivity to adult-onset diabetes.

Kilocalorie labelling in the out-of-home sector: an observational study of business practices and consumer behaviour prior to implementation of the mandatory calorie labelling policy in England, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Regulations mandating kilocalorie (kcal) labelling for large businesses in the out-of-home food sector (OHFS) came into force on 6th April 2022 as a policy to reduce obesity in England. To provide indicators of potential reach and impact, kcal labelling practices were studied in the OHFS, and customer purchasing and consumption behaviours prior to implementation of the mandatory kcal labelling policy in England. METHODS: From August-December 2021, large OHFS businesses subject to the kcal labelling regulations were visited prior to regulations coming into force on 6th April 2022. 3308 customers were recruited from 330 outlets and collected survey information on the number of kcal purchased and consumed by customers, customers' knowledge of the kcal content of their purchases, and customers noticing and use of kcal labelling. In a subset of 117 outlets, data was collected on nine recommended kcal labelling practices. RESULTS: The average number of kcals purchased (1013 kcal, SD = 632 kcal) was high with 69% of purchases exceeding the recommendation of a maximum of 600 kcal per meal. Participants underestimated the energy content of their purchased meals by on average 253 kcal (SD = 644 kcals). In outlets providing kcal labelling in which customer survey data was collected, a minority of customers reported noticing (21%) or using (20%) kcal labelling. Out of the 117 outlets assessed for kcal labelling practices, 24 (21%) provided any in-store kcal labelling. None of the outlets met all nine aspects of recommended labelling practices. CONCLUSIONS: Prior to implementation of 2022 kcal labelling policy, the majority of sampled OHFS large business outlets in England did not provide kcal labelling. Few customers noticed or used the labels and on average customers purchased and consumed substantially more energy than recommended in public health guidelines. The findings suggest that reliance on voluntary action for kcal labelling implementation failed to produce widespread, consistent, and adequate kcal labelling practices.

A nutritional biomarker score of the Mediterranean diet and incident type 2 diabetes: Integrated analysis of data from the MedLey randomised controlled trial and the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.