Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington, USA.

One outcome of the 2022 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute was defined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner, we addressed the management objective of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change-induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) used models based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, because climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the YRB will result in a greater probability that the salmon population will continue to fail to meet the management objective of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations being not as important. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:419-432. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Critical gaps in nanoplastics research and their connection to risk assessment.

Reports of plastics, at higher levels than previously thought, in the water that we drink and the air that we breathe, are generating considerable interest and concern. Plastics have been recorded in almost every environment in the world with estimates on the order of trillions of microplastic pieces. Yet, this may very well be an underestimate of plastic pollution as a whole. Once microplastics (<5 mm) break down in the environment, they nominally enter the nanoscale (<1,000 nm), where they cannot be seen by the naked eye or even with the use of a typical laboratory microscope. Thus far, research has focused on plastics in the macro- (>25 mm) and micro-size ranges, which are easier to detect and identify, leaving large knowledge gaps in our understanding of nanoplastic debris. Our ability to ask and answer questions relating to the transport, fate, and potential toxicity of these particles is disadvantaged by the detection and identification limits of current technology. Furthermore, laboratory exposures have been substantially constrained to the study of commercially available nanoplastics; i.e., polystyrene spheres, which do not adequately reflect the composition of environmental plastic debris. While a great deal of plastic-focused research has been published in recent years, the pattern of the work does not answer a number of key factors vital to calculating risk that takes into account the smallest plastic particles; namely, sources, fate and transport, exposure measures, toxicity and effects. These data are critical to inform regulatory decision making and to implement adaptive management strategies that mitigate risk to human health and the environment. This paper reviews the current state-of-the-science on nanoplastic research, highlighting areas where data are needed to establish robust risk assessments that take into account plastics pollution. Where nanoplastic-specific data are not available, suggested substitutions are indicated.