Fast Parameter Inference on Pulsar Timing Arrays with Normalizing Flows.

Pulsar timing arrays perform Bayesian posterior inference with expensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Given a dataset of ∼10-100 pulsars and O(10^{3}) timing residuals each, producing a posterior distribution for the stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) can take days to a week. The computational bottleneck arises because the likelihood evaluation required for MCMC is extremely costly when considering the dimensionality of the search space. Fortunately, generating simulated data is fast, so modern simulation-based inference techniques can be brought to bear on the problem. In this Letter, we demonstrate how conditional normalizing flows trained on simulated data can be used for extremely fast and accurate estimation of the SGWB posteriors, reducing the sampling time from weeks to a matter of seconds.

Transcriptional signature of durable effector T cells elicited by a replication defective HCMV vaccine.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is a leading infectious cause of birth defects and the most common opportunistic infection that causes life-threatening diseases post-transplantation; however, an effective vaccine remains elusive. V160 is a live-attenuated replication defective HCMV vaccine that showed a 42.4% efficacy against primary HCMV infection among seronegative women in a phase 2b clinical trial. Here, we integrated the multicolor flow cytometry, longitudinal T cell receptor (TCR) sequencing, and single-cell RNA/TCR sequencing approaches to characterize the magnitude, phenotype, and functional quality of human T cell responses to V160. We demonstrated that V160 de novo induces IE-1 and pp65 specific durable polyfunctional effector CD8 T cells that are comparable to those induced by natural HCMV infection. We identified a variety of V160-responsive T cell clones which exhibit distinctive "transient" and "durable" expansion kinetics, and revealed a transcriptional signature that marks durable CD8 T cells post-vaccination. Our study enhances the understanding of human T-cell immune responses to V160 vaccination.

Developing deep learning-based strategies to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: The accuracy of deep learning models for many disease prediction problems is affected by time-varying covariates, rare incidence, covariate imbalance and delayed diagnosis when using structured electronic health records data. The situation is further exasperated when predicting the risk of one disease on condition of another disease, such as the hepatocellular carcinoma risk among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease due to slow, chronic progression, the scarce of data with both disease conditions and the sex bias of the diseases. The goal of this study is to investigate the extent to which the aforementioned issues influence deep learning performance, and then devised strategies to tackle these challenges. These strategies were applied to improve hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS: We evaluated two representative deep learning models in the task of predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in a cohort of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 220,838) from a national EHR database. The disease prediction task was carefully formulated as a classification problem while taking censorship and the length of follow-up into consideration. RESULTS: We developed a novel backward masking scheme to deal with the issue of delayed diagnosis which is very common in EHR data analysis and evaluate how the length of longitudinal information after the index date affects disease prediction. We observed that modeling time-varying covariates improved the performance of the algorithms and transfer learning mitigated reduced performance caused by the lack of data. In addition, covariate imbalance, such as sex bias in data impaired performance. Deep learning models trained on one sex and evaluated in the other sex showed reduced performance, indicating the importance of assessing covariate imbalance while preparing data for model training. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies developed in this work can significantly improve the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Furthermore, our novel strategies can be generalized to apply to other disease risk predictions using structured electronic health records, especially for disease risks on condition of another disease.

The interplay of machine learning-based resonant anomaly detection methods.

Machine learning-based anomaly detection (AD) methods are promising tools for extending the coverage of searches for physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM). One class of AD methods that has received significant attention is resonant anomaly detection, where the BSM physics is assumed to be localized in at least one known variable. While there have been many methods proposed to identify such a BSM signal that make use of simulated or detected data in different ways, there has not yet been a study of the methods' complementarity. To this end, we address two questions. First, in the absence of any signal, do different methods pick the same events as signal-like? If not, then we can significantly reduce the false-positive rate by comparing different methods on the same dataset. Second, if there is a signal, are different methods fully correlated? Even if their maximum performance is the same, since we do not know how much signal is present, it may be beneficial to combine approaches. Using the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) Olympics dataset, we provide quantitative answers to these questions. We find that there are significant gains possible by combining multiple methods, which will strengthen the search program at the LHC and beyond.

The IL6/JAK/STAT3 signaling axis is a therapeutic vulnerability in SMARCB1-deficient bladder cancer.

SMARCB1 loss has long been observed in many solid tumors. However, there is a need to elucidate targetable pathways driving growth and metastasis in SMARCB1-deficient tumors. Here, we demonstrate that SMARCB1 deficiency, defined as genomic SMARCB1 copy number loss associated with reduced mRNA, drives disease progression in patients with bladder cancer by engaging STAT3. SMARCB1 loss increases the chromatin accessibility of the STAT3 locus in vitro. Orthotopically implanted SMARCB1 knockout (KO) cell lines exhibit increased tumor growth and metastasis. SMARCB1-deficient tumors show an increased IL6/JAK/STAT3 signaling axis in in vivo models and patients. Furthermore, a pSTAT3 selective inhibitor, TTI-101, reduces tumor growth in SMARCB1 KO orthotopic cell line-derived xenografts and a SMARCB1-deficient patient derived xenograft model. We have identified a gene signature generated from SMARCB1 KO tumors that predicts SMARCB1 deficiency in patients. Overall, these findings support the clinical evaluation of STAT3 inhibitors for the treatment of SMARCB1-deficient bladder cancer.

Tumour mutational burden is overestimated by target cancer gene panels.

Background: Tumour mutational burden (TMB) has emerged as a predictive marker for responsiveness to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in multiple tumour types. It can be calculated from somatic mutations detected from whole exome or targeted panel sequencing data. As mutations are unevenly distributed across the cancer genome, the clinical implications from TMB calculated using different genomic regions are not clear. Methods: Pan-cancer data of 10,179 samples were collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas cohort and 6,831 cancer patients with either ICI or non-ICI treatment outcomes were derived from published papers. TMB was calculated as the count of non-synonymous mutations and normalised by the size of genomic regions. Dirichlet method, linear regression and Poisson calibration models are used to unify TMB from different gene panels. Results: We found that panels based on cancer genes usually overestimate TMB compared to whole exome, potentially leading to misclassification of patients to receive ICI. The overestimation is caused by positive selection for mutations in cancer genes and cannot be completely addressed by the removal of mutational hotspots. We compared different approaches to address this discrepancy and developed a generalised statistical model capable of interconverting TMB derived from whole exome and different panel sequencing data, enabling TMB correction for patient stratification for ICI treatment. We show that in a cohort of lung cancer patients treated with ICI, when using a TMB cutoff of 10 mut/Mb, our corrected TMB outperforms the original panel-based TMB. Conclusion: Cancer gene-based panels usually overestimate TMB, and these findings will be valuable for unifying TMB calculations across cancer gene panels in clinical practice.