Prognosis-based management of unexplained infertility-why not?

Up to a half of couples seeking medical assistance for infertility are diagnosed with unexplained infertility, characterized by normal ovulation, tubal patency, and semen analysis results. This condition presents a challenge in determining the optimal treatment approach. Available treatments include IUI and IVF, but guidelines vary on when to offer each. Prognosis-based management is identified as a research priority, and various prediction models have been developed to guide treatment decisions. Prognostic factors include female age, duration of subfertility, and sperm parameters, among others. Prognosis-based strategies can enhance cost-effectiveness, safety, and patient outcomes, offering less invasive options to those with good prognoses and more aggressive interventions to those with poor prognoses. However, there is a gap between research evidence and its clinical application. In this article, we discuss the application of prognosis-based management in the context of unexplained infertility, highlighting its potential to improve clinical decision-making and patient outcomes.

Predictors of success after in vitro fertilization.

The last few decades have witnessed a rise in the global uptake of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment. To ensure optimal use of this technology, it is important for patients and clinicians to have access to tools that can provide accurate estimates of treatment success and understand the contribution of key clinical and laboratory parameters that influence the chance of conception after IVF treatment. The focus of this review was to identify key predictors of IVF treatment success and assess their impact in terms of live birth rates. We have identified 11 predictors that consistently feature in currently available prediction models, including age, duration of infertility, ethnicity, body mass index, antral follicle count, previous pregnancy history, cause of infertility, sperm parameters, number of oocytes collected, morphology of transferred embryos, and day of embryo transfer.

Evaluating prognosis in unexplained infertility.

IMPORTANCE: The diagnosis of unexplained infertility presents a dilemma as it signifies both uncertainty about the cause of infertility and the potential for natural conception. Immediate treatment of all would result in overtreatment. Prediction models estimating the likelihood of natural conception and subsequent live birth can guide treatment decisions. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if in couples with unexplained infertility, prediction models are effective in guiding treatment decisions. EVIDENCE REVIEW: This review examines 25 studies that assess prediction models for natural conception in couples with unexplained infertility in terms of derivation, validation, and impact analysis. FINDINGS: The largest prediction models have been integrated in the synthesis models of Hunault, which includes female age and infertility duration, having been pregnant before and motile sperm percentage. Despite its limited discriminative capacity, this model demonstrates excellent calibration. Importantly, the impact of the Hunault model has been evaluated in randomized clinical trials, and shows that in couples with unexplained infertility and 12-month natural conception chances exceeding 30%, immediate treatment with intrauterine insemination (IUI) and controlled ovarian hyperstimulation is not better than expectant management for 6 months. Below the threshold of 30%, treatment with IUI is superior over expectant management, but immediate in vitro fertilization was not better than IUI. CONCLUSION: In couples with unexplained infertility and a good prognosis for natural conception, treatment can be delayed, whereas in couples with a poor prognosis, immediate treatment (with IUI-controlled ovarian hyperstimulation) is warranted. RELEVANCE: These data indicate that in couples with unexplained infertility, integration of prediction models into clinical decision making can optimize treatment selection and maximize fertility outcomes while limiting unnecessary treatment.

Should we adopt a prognosis-based approach to unexplained infertility?

The treatment of unexplained infertility is a contentious topic that continues to attract a great deal of interest amongst clinicians, patients and policy makers. The inability to identify an underlying pathology makes it difficult to devise effective treatments for this condition. Couples with unexplained infertility can conceive on their own and any proposed intervention needs to offer a better chance of having a baby. Over the years, several prognostic and prediction models based on routinely collected clinical data have been developed, but these are not widely used by clinicians and patients. In this opinion paper, we propose a prognosis-based approach such that a decision to access treatment is based on the estimated chances of natural and treatment-related conception, which, in the same couple, can change over time. This approach avoids treating all couples as a homogeneous group and minimizes unnecessary treatment whilst ensuring access to those who need it early.