Epidemiology and Outcomes of Critical Illness and Novel Predictors of Mortality in an Ethiopian Medical Intensive Care Unit.

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear most of the global burden of critical illness. Managing this burden requires improved understanding of epidemiology and outcomes in LMIC intensive care units (ICUs), including LMIC-specific mortality prediction scores. This study was a retrospective observational study at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, examining all consecutive medical ICU admissions from June 2014 to April 2015. The primary outcome was ICU mortality; secondary outcomes were prolonged ICU stay and prolonged mechanical ventilation. ICU mortality prediction models were created using multivariable logistic regression and compared with the Mortality Probability Model-II (MPM-II). Associations with secondary outcomes were examined with multivariable logistic regression. There were 198 admissions during the study period; mortality was 35%. Age, shock on admission, mechanical ventilation, human immunodeficiency virus, and Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8 were associated with ICU mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve for this 5-factor model had an AUC of 0.8205 versus 0.7468 for MPM-II, favoring the simplified new model. Mechanical ventilation and lack of shock were associated with prolonged ICU stays. Mortality in an LMIC medical ICU was high. This study examines an LMIC medical ICU population, showing a simplified prediction model may predict mortality as well as complex models.

Trends and Outcomes of Acute Poisoning in Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital Medical Intensive Care Units: Retrospective Study.

Background: Acute poisoning with agrochemicals, medicines and different environmental exposures continues to be a global health problems. However, with our search for reports about acute poisoning, there was no data regarding a change in trends and outcomes of acute poisoning in Ethiopia and its districts. Objective: This study was to determine the burden of poison-related health hazards, identify poisoning substances, and clinical outcomes of poisoning cases admitted to Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital- Medical intensive care unit (FHCSH-MICU), Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective hospital-based study was conducted using patient data archived from March 2019 to February 2020 at FHCSH-MICU. Collected data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software version 26 and descriptive statistics such as measures of central tendency and proportions were computed. The results were reported as text narrations, figures and tables. Results: A total 121 poisoned patients were identified from the patient registration log books. Among the total FHCSH-MICU cases registered, acute poisoning accounted for 17.0%. Of 121 poison cases, 118 (98.3%) were due to suicide attempts with the female to male ratio being 1.5:1. The majority, 65 (54.0%), of cases were in the range of 21-30 years age. Nearly two-thirds, 75 (62.0%), of the poisoning cases died, accounting for 21.6% of all deaths in the FHCSH-MICU. The most common poisoning substance was aluminum phosphide, 92 (76%). Conclusion and Recommendations: Aluminum phosphide became the leading poisoning substance in the study area. Nearly two-thirds of the poisoning cases died. Hence, aluminum phosphide must be placed in secured and inaccessible places and it should be replaced by less poisonous rodenticides. Health education and awareness creation about this lethal toxin are strongly advisable.

Molecular epidemiology of M. tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis, Mtb) is poorly documented in Ethiopia. The data that exists has not yet been collected in an overview metadata form. Thus, this review summarizes available literature on the genomic diversity, geospatial distribution and transmission patterns of Mtb lineages (L) and sublineages in Ethiopia. Spoligotyping and Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR) based articles were identified from MEDLINE via PubMed and Scopus. The last date of article search was done on 12th February 2019. Articles were selected following the PRISMA flow diagram. The proportion of (sub)lineages was summarized at national level and further disaggregated by region. Clustering and recent transmission index (RTI) were determined using metan command and random effect meta-analysis model. The meta-analysis was computed using Stata 14 (Stata Corp. College Station, TX, USA). Among 4371 clinical isolates, 99.5% were Mtb and 0.5% were M. bovis. Proportionally, L4, L3, L1 and L7 made up 62.3%, 21.7%, 7.9% and 3.4% of the total isolates, respectively. Among sublineages, L4.2. ETH/SIT149, L4.10/SIT53, L3. ETH1/SIT25 and L4.6/SIT37 were the leading clustered isolates accounting for 14.4%, 9.7%, 7.2% and 5.5%, respectively. Based on MIRU-VNTR, the rate of clustering was 41% and the secondary case rate from a single source case was estimated at 29%. Clustering and recent transmission index was higher in eastern and southwestern Ethiopia compared with the northwestern part of the country. High level of genetic diversity with a high rate of clustering was noted which collectively mirrored the phenomena of micro-epidemics and super-spreading. The largest set of clustered strains deserves special attention and further characterization using whole genome sequencing (WGS) to better understand the evolution, genomic diversity and transmission dynamics of Mtb.

Epidemiology of tuberculous lymphadenitis in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculous lymphadenitis is the most frequent form of extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB) and accounts for a considerable proportion of all EPTB cases. We conducted a systematic review of articles that described the epidemiological features of TBLN in Africa. METHODS: Any article that characterized TBLN cases with respect to demographic, exposure and clinical features were included. Article search was restricted to African countries and those published in English language irrespective of publication year. The articles were retrieved from the electronic database of PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane library and Lens.org. Random effect pooled prevalence with 95% CI was computed based on Dersimonian and Laird method. To stabilize the variance, Freeman-Tukey double arcsine root transformation was done. The data were analyzed using Stata 14. RESULTS: Of the total 833 articles retrieved, twenty-eight articles from 12 African countries fulfilled the eligibility criteria. A total of 6746 TBLN cases were identified. The majority of the cases, 4762 (70.6%) were from Ethiopia. Over 77% and 88% of identified TBLN were cervical in type and naïve to TB drugs. Among the total number of TBLN cases, 53% were female, 68% were in the age range of 15-44 years, 52% had a history of livestock exposure, 46% had a history of consuming raw milk/meat and 24% had history of BCG vaccination. The proportion of TBLN/HIV co-infection was much lower in Ethiopia (21%) than in other African countries (73%) and the overall African estimate (52%). Fever was recorded in 45%, night sweating in 55%, weight loss in 62% and cough for longer than two weeks in 32% of the TBLN cases. CONCLUSIONS: TBLN was more common in females than in males. The high prevalence of TBLN in Ethiopia did not show directional correlation with HIV. Population based prospective studies are warranted to better define the risk factors of TBLN in Africa.